ilri process and partnership for pro-poor policy change methods for assessing policy impact process...
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ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Methods for Assessing Policy Impact
Process and Partnerships for Pro-Poor Policy Change,
Project Initiation Workshop 1
ILRI, 21st February 2005
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Workshop Outline• Introduction to the RAPID Framework and
ILRI/ODI Project• Case Study Approach• Episode Study Approach• Outcome Mapping Approach• RAPID Outcome Assessment (ROA)
ApproachLunch• Practical Sessions
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Workshop Purpose & Objectives
ObjectivesBy the end of the workshop, participants will:• understand the Process and Partnership for Pro-Poor
Policy Change project’s purpose and general approach• have the opportunity to contribute their own suggestions to
improve the project;• understand, and have had the chance to try out the three
key methods which will be used in the project;• assess the usefulness of the approaches in their own work.
Purpose: To familiarise the participants with the general approach and specific methods to be used in the SDP case study
An introduction to the RAPID Framework and ILRI/ODI Project
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Definitions• Research: “any systematic effort to increase the
stock of knowledge”
• Policy: a “purposive course of action followed by an actor or set of actors”
– Agendas / policy horizons
– Official statements documents
– Patterns of spending
– Implementation processes
– Activities on the ground
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Policy Processes
- Identify a policy problem
- Commission research
- Assess the results
- Select the best policy
- Establish the policy framework
- Implement the policy
- The problem is solved
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Reality…• “The whole life of policy is a chaos of purposes
and accidents. It is not at all a matter of the rational implementation of the so-called decisions through selected strategies 1”
• “Most policy research on African agriculture is irrelevant to agricultural and overall economic policy in Africa2”
1 - Clay & Schaffer (1984), Room for Manoeuvre; An Exploration of Public Policy in Agricultural and Rural Development, Heineman Educational Books, London2 – Omamo (2003), Policy Research on African Agriculture: Trends, Gaps, and Challenges, International Service for National Agricultural Research (ISNAR) Research Report No 21
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Existing theory1. Linear model2. Percolation model, Weiss3. Tipping point model, Gladwell4. ‘Context, evidence, links’ framework, ODI5. Policy narratives, Roe6. Systems model (NSI)7. External forces, Lindquist8. ‘Room for manoeuvre’, Clay & Schaffer9. ‘Street level bureaucrats’, Lipsky10. Policy as social experiments, Rondinelli11. Policy Streams & Windows, Kingdon12. Disjointed incrementalism, Lindquist13. The ‘tipping point’, Gladwell14. Crisis model, Kuhn15. ‘Framework of possible thought’,
Chomsky16. Variables for Credibility, Beach17. The source is as important as content,
Gladwell
18. Linear model of communication, Shannon19. Interactive model, 20. Simple and surprising stories,
Communication Theory21. Provide solutions, Marketing Theory I22. Find the right packaging, Marketing II23. Elicit a response, Kottler24. Translation of technology, Volkow25. Epistemic communities26. Policy communities27. Advocacy coalitions etc, Pross28. Negotiation through networks, Sebattier29. Shadow networks, Klickert30. Chains of accountability, Fine31. Communication for social change,
Rockefeller32. Wheels and webs, Chapman & Fisher
www.odi.org.uk/rapid/lessons/theory
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Existing theory – a short list• Policy narratives, Roe• Systems of Innovation Model, (NSI)• ‘Room for manoeuvre’, Clay & Schaffer• ‘Street level bureaucrats’, Lipsky• Policy as social experiments, Rondene• Policy streams and policy windows, Kingdon• Disjointed Incrementalism, Lindblom• Social Epidemics, Gladwell
• The RAPID Framework
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
An Analytical Framework
The political context – political and economic structures and processes, culture, institutional pressures, incremental vs radical change etc.
The evidence – credibility, the degree it challenges received wisdom, research approaches and methodology, simplicity of the message, how it is packaged etc
External Influences Socio-economic and cultural influences, donor policies etc
The links between policyand research communities – networks, relationships, power, competing discourses, trust, knowledge etc.
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Case Studies• Sustainable Livelihoods: The
Evolution of DFID Policy
• The PRSP Initiative: Research in Multilateral Policy Change
• The adoption of Ethical Principles in Humanitarian Aid post Rwanda
• Animal Health Care in Kenya: Evidence fails to influence Policy
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
A Practical Framework
External Influences political context
evidencelinks
Politics and Policymaking
Media, Advocacy, Networking Research,
learning & thinking
Scientific information exchange & validation
Policy analysis, & research
Campaigning, Lobbying
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
What you need to know• The external environment: Who are the key actors?
What is their agenda? How do they influence the political context?
• The political context: Is there political interest in change? Is there room for manoeuvre? How do they perceive the problem?
• The evidence: Is it there? Is it relevant? Is it practically useful? Are the concepts familiar or new? Does it need re-packaging?
• Links: Who are the key individuals? Are there existing networks to use? How best to transfer the information? The media? Campaigns?
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
What researchers need to do
What researchers need to know
What researchers need to do
How to do it
Political Context:
Evidence
Links
• Who are the policymakers?• Is there demand for ideas?• What is the policy process?
• What is the current theory?• What are the narratives?• How divergent is it?
• Who are the stakeholders?• What networks exist?• Who are the connectors,
mavens and salesmen?
• Get to know the policymakers.• Identify friends and foes.• Prepare for policy
opportunities. • Look out for policy windows.
• Work with them – seek commissions
• Strategic opportunism – prepare for known events + resources for others
• Establish credibility• Provide practical solutions• Establish legitimacy.• Present clear options• Use familiar narratives.
• Build a reputation• Action-research• Pilot projects to generate
legitimacy• Good communication
• Get to know the others• Work through existing
networks.• Build coalitions.• Build new policy networks.
• Build partnerships.• Identify key networkers,
mavens and salesmen.• Use informal contacts
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Policy entrepreneurs
Storytellers
Engineers
Networkers
Fixers
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Practical ToolsOverarching Tools
- The RAPID Framework - Using the Framework - The Entrepreneurship
Questionnaire
Context Assessment Tools- Stakeholder Analysis - Forcefield Analysis - Writeshops - Policy Mapping - Political Context Mapping Communication Tools
- Communications Strategy- SWOT analysis - Message Design - Making use of the media Research Tools
- Case Studies - Episode Studies - Surveys - Bibliometric Analysis- Focus Group Discussion
Policy Influence Tools- Influence Mapping & Power Mapping - Lobbying and Advocacy - Campaigning: A Simple Guide - Competency self-assessment
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Practical Application• Within ODI• Workshops for researchers, policy makers
and activists.• Advice to a DFID forest/ground water
research project in India:– Less research– More communication– Developing champions in regional and national
government – Local, Regional & National advocacy campaign
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Further Information / Resources
• ODI Working Papers
• Bridging Research and Policy Book
• Meeting series Monograph
• Tools for Policy Impact
• RAPID Briefing Paper
• www.odi.org.uk/rapid
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Yes, but:• It this its role?• “Global Public Good” Research vs Policy Advocacy• Probably needs to do both:
How?• Understand the political context• Get the evidence & package it well• Strategic networking / lobbying / campaigning• Collaboration….
Can ILRI do it?
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy ChangeILRI
International Livestock Research Institute
The New DfID funded Project
Process and partnership for pro-poor policy change
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy ChangeILRI
International Livestock Research Institute
• Project Leaders: ODI / ILRI
• Key collaborators: ECAPAPA
• Case study collaborators in Kenya: – MoLFD / KARI– Range of NGOs & other SDP partners
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change Why would I be interested?ILRI
International Livestock Research Institute
• Not all research is expected or intended to lead to policy change, but there may be;– Specific cases where research is expected to;
• provide evidence for policy change• identify potential policies (or impact of)• influence the policy making process
(advocacy)– Cases where speculative research becomes
relevant because of changes in circumstance
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change The project …ILRI
International Livestock Research Institute
• Ideas for methods and approaches
• Lessons learnt from earlier activities
• Identification of appropriate communication tools
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy ChangeWhat will we be doing?ILRI
International Livestock Research Institute
• Three case studies in three DIFFERENT countries
– A project considered to have influenced policy change
– A stream of research addressing a particular policy area
– A clear policy change;• New policy statement• New law• Irrefutable change in way something is done
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change What will we be doing?ILRI
International Livestock Research Institute
• Three case studies– SDP and impact on changed view of
informal milk trade– ????– ????
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy ChangeILRI
International Livestock Research Institute
• Discussion:– Can ILRI hope to influence pro-poor policy
through research?– Any good case studies?
Case Study Approach
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
What is a Case Study?Definition:
" A systematic inquiry into an event or a set of related events which aims to describe and explain the phenomenon of interest" Bromley (1990)
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Why is it useful?
• An ideal methodology when a holistic, in-depth investigation is needed
• Designed to bring out the details from the viewpoint of the participants by using multiple sources of data
Goal :to describe as accurately as possible the fullest, most complete description of the case.
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Types of Case StudyTypes of case studies: • Exploratory, • Explanatory, • Descriptive (Yin, 1993)Stake (1995) included three others: • Intrinsic - when the researcher has an interest in
the case; • Instrumental - when the case is used to
understand more than what is obvious to the observer;
• Collective - when a group of cases is studied.
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Issues• The unit of analysis is a critical factor• Typically a system of action rather than an
individual or group of individuals • Tend to be selective, focusing on one or two
issues that are fundamental to understanding the system being examined
• Case studies are multi-perspectival analyses • The researcher considers not just the voice and
perspective of the actors, but also of the relevant groups of actors and the interaction between them
• They give a voice to the powerless and voiceless.
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Triangulation• Data source triangulation, when the researcher looks
for the data to remain the same in different contexts; • Investigator triangulation, when several investigators
examine the same phenomenon; • Theory triangulation, when investigators with
different view points interpret the same results; and • Methodological triangulation, when one approach is
followed by another, to increase confidence in the interpretation.
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Applications
• To explain complex causal links between research and policy
• To describe the real-life context in which policy has been influenced by research
• To describe the policy influencing process itself
• To explore those situations in which the policy intervention being evaluated has no clear set of outcomes.
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Process1. Design the case study protocol:
– determine the required skills – develop and review the protocol
2. Conduct the case study: – prepare for data collection – distribute questionnaire – conduct interviews
3. Analyze case study evidence: – analytic strategy
4. Develop conclusions, recommendations, and implications based on the evidence
Episode Study
Approach
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
What is an Episode Study“A study that focuses on a clear policy change and tracks back to assess what impact research had among the variety of issues that led to the policy change”.
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
• an excellent way of investigating the influence of research on policy
• Can focus on a single episode or comparative episodes.
What is the purpose?
Tracking backwards from policy change to any particular research which influence policy
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
• The process of working backwards in time gives a more realistic view of the broad range of factors – other than research – that influence policy
• Tracking forward probably overemphasizes
the importance of research
Advantage
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
• Policy processes are complex, multi-layered and change over time
• Often difficult to isolate the impact of research from other factors
• Actors may ‘re-write history’• Important to seek the views of a wide range of
informed stakeholders • The process of preparing an episode study is
iterative• Key facts and / or inconsistencies need to be
cross-checked with key informants
Issues
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
1. Identify a clear policy change.
2. Identify key Research Questions (draw on RAPID framework)
3. Explore how and why those policy decisions and practices took place
4. Assess the relative role of research in that process by drawing on the framework.
Process
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Apply the RAPID Framework
External Influences political context
evidencelinks
Politics and Policymaking
Media, Advocacy, Networking Research,
learning & thinking
Scientific information exchange & validation
Policy analysis, & research
Campaigning, Lobbying
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Key Questions• The external environment: Who are the key actors?
What is their agenda? How do they influence the political context?
• The political context: Is there political interest in change? Is there room for manoeuvre? How do they perceive the problem?
• The evidence: Is it there? Is it relevant? Is it practically useful? Are the concepts familiar or new? Does it need re-packaging?
• Links: Who are the key individuals? Are there existing networks to use? How best to transfer the information? The media? Campaigns?
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
• review of the literature;
• interviews with key actors;
• capturing the authors’ own experience; and
• discussions at workshops.
Methods
Steps 3 and 4 can be done through a variety of methods:
Episode Study Examples
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Professionalisation of Public Services.
Structural Adjustment → Collapse
Paravet projects emerge.
ITDG projects.
Privatisation.
ITDG Paravet network.
Rapid spread in North.
KVB letter (January 1998).
Multistakeholder WSs → new policies.
Still not approved / passed!
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
Professionalisation of Public Services.
Structural Adjustment
Privatisation
ITDG Paravet network and change of DVS.
KVB letter (January 1998).
Multistakeholder WSs → new policies.
ITDG projects – collaborative research.
The Hubl StudyDr Kajume
Paravets in KenyaInternational Research
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
PRSPs – Political Context• Widespread awareness of a “problem” with
international development policy in late 90s• Failure of SAPs (and Asian financial crisis)• Mounting public pressure for debt relief• Stagnation of Comprehensive Development
Framework idea• Diverging agendas (UK – Poverty, US –
Governance)• WB/IMF Annual General Meeting, Sept 1999
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
PRSPs – Evidence• Long-term academic research informing new
focus on poverty, participation, ownership, aid effectiveness etc
• Applied policy research:– ESAF reviews– HIPC review– SPA Working Groups– NGO research on debt
• Uganda’s PEAP
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
PRSPs – Links
• WB, IMF, SPA, Bilaterals, NGOs all involved
• Formal an informal networks
• “None of the players was more than two handshakes away from any of the others”
Outcome Mapping
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
What is it?• an integrated PM&E tool• a system to think holistically & strategically about
how we intend to achieve result• an approach that focuses on changes in the
behaviour, relationships or actions of partners (as outcomes)
• a methodology that characterizes and assesses the program’s contributions to the achievement of outcomes
• an approach for designing in relation to the broader development context but assessing within your sphere of influence
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Focus: On Behavioural Change
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
• For a program to tell its performance story in outcome terms by:– articulating its goals and designing its activities– designing a monitoring system for assessing
internal performance and outcomes of partners– setting a use-oriented evaluation plan
How can it be used?
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
• Focussing on changes in partners’ behaviour, relationships, or actions allows a program to:– measure results within its sphere of influence– obtain feedback about its efforts in order to
improve its performance– take credit for its contributions to the achievement
of outcomes– show progress towards outcomes
Why use it?
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
• Outcomes: changes in behaviours, relationships, activities and/or actions of the people, groups and organisations with whom we work
• Vision: the broad human, social and environmental betterment we desire
• Mission: how we intend to contribute towards the achievement of the vision
• Boundary partners: individuals, groups and organisations with whom we interact directly to effect change
• Outcome challenges: changes behaviours of the boundary partners as identified by the vision
Terminology
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
The Three Stages
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Vision Statement Outcome Challenges Progress Markers
Why ? What ?
Boundary Partners
Who ?
MissionStrategy MapsOrganizationalPractices
How ?
Intentional Study Design
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
• Provides a framework for a continuous monitoring of the initiative as a tool to achieve its outcomes.
• The program uses progress markers, a set of graduated indicators of behavioural change, identified in the intentional design stage to clarify direction with its primary partners and to monitor outcomes
Performance Monitoring
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
• Helps identify the evaluation priorities assessing the strategy at greater depth than the performance monitoring stage
Evaluation Planning
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Outcome Mapping: Main Elements
Boundary Partners
Vision
Mission
O.C. OutcomeChallenge
O.C.
Progress Markers
Strategies
Main Elements
RAPID Outcome Assessment
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
What is it?• A Visual Tool• Combines the outcome mapping concept within a
case study & episode study approach• Systematic approach to collecting information about
changes in behaviour of key project partners that contributed to the policy change
• Assessment of the contribution of the project (programme, strategy, etc.) to observed changes in behaviour –and ultimately to the policy change
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Approach1. Describe policy environment at end2. Describe policy environment at the beginning3. Identify the key policy actors4. Identify key boundary partners5. Describe boundary partner behaviour at end6. Describe boundary partner behaviour at beginning7. Describe changes in BP behaviour8. Describe changes in project (strategic/opportunistic)9. Describe external influences10. Determine level of impact of changes in project11. Determine level of impact of external influences12. Check through external interviews13. Write report
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
Sources & Outputs1. Literature review
- Project background, progress, (published) achievements
2. Participatory workshop with staff (and BP)– Gather detailed information– Identify issues for further investigation
3. Interviews with key informants to:– Triangulate the result of the workshop,– Fill the gaps of information– Clarify causality
4. Report Writing– Visual and Narrative
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
ROA Terms and Definitions
• Boundary partners: individuals, groups and organisations with whom we interact directly to effect change.
• Outcomes: changes in behaviours, relationships, activities and/or actions of the people, groups and organisations with whom we work.
• Behaviours: the way we or our boundary partners do or think about things.
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
The key steps of the ROA framework
1. Describe the policy environment at the end of the project
BP 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
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ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
The key steps of the ROA framework
2. Describe the policy environment at the beginning of the project
BP 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
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The key steps of the ROA framework
Before TodayBP 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
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3/4. Identify key policy actors and boundary partners (that were influential at end)
ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
The key steps of the ROA framework
5. Describe the behaviours of the boundary partners that contributed to the change in the policy environment or policy Before Today
BP 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
BP1 5
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BP3 8
BP4 7
BP5 4
BP6 9
BP7 3
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ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
The key steps of the ROA framework6. Describe the behaviours of the boundary partners
at the beginning of the project
Before TodayBP 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
BP1 0 5
BP2 0 4
BP3 0 8
BP4 0 7
BP5 0 4
BP6 0 9
BP7 0 3
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ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
The key steps of the ROA framework7. Map the key changes in behaviour for each
boundary partner from the start of the project
Before TodayBP 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
BP1 0 1 2 3,4 5
BP2 0 1 2,3 4
BP3 0 1 2 3 4,5,6 7 8
BP4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
BP5 0 1 2 3 4
BP6 0 1,2 3,4,5 6,7,8 9
BP7 0 1, 2 3
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ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
The key steps of the ROA framework8. Map the key changes in the project including
organisational changes, outputs and changes in behaviour during the same period.
Before TodayBP 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
BP1 0 1 2 3,4 5
BP2 0 1 2,3 4
BP3 0 1 2 3 4,5,6 7 8
BP4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
BP5 0 1 2 3 4
BP6 0 1,2 3,4,5 6,7,8 9
BP7 0 1, 2 3
Project 0 1 2,3 4,5 6 7 8 9 10
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ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
The key steps of the ROA framework9. Map the external influences including the actions f
strategic partners and other exogenous factors during the same period
Before TodayBP 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
BP1 0 1 2 3,4 5
BP2 0 1 2,3 4
BP3 0 1 2 3 4,5,6 7 8
BP4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
BP5 0 1 2 3 4
BP6 0 1,2 3,4,5 6,7,8 9
BP7 0 1, 2 3
Project 0 1 2,3 4,5 6 7 8 9 10
EE 0 1 2 3,4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
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ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
The key steps of the ROA framework10. Determine the level of impact/influence of the
project on the changes in behaviour of the boundary partners
Before TodayBP 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
BP1 0 1 2 3,4 5
BP2 0 1 2,3 4
BP3 0 1 2 3 4,5,6 7 8
BP4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
BP5 0 1 2 3 4
BP6 0 1,2 3,4,5 6,7,8 9
BP7 0 1, 2 3
Project 0 1 2,3 4,5 6 7 8 9 10
EE 0 1 2 3,4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Direct influence
Indirect influence
External influence
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ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
The key steps of the ROA framework11. Determine the level of impact/influence of external
influences on the changes in behaviour of the boundary partners and the project
Before TodayBP 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
BP1 0 1 2 3,4 5
BP2 0 1 2,3 4
BP3 0 1 2 3 4,5,6 7 8
BP4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
BP5 0 1 2 3 4
BP6 0 1,2 3,4,5 6,7,8 9
BP7 0 1, 2 3
Project 0 1 2,3 4,5 6 7 8 9 10
EE 0 1 2 3,4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Direct influence
Indirect influence
External influence
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ILRI Process and Partnership forPro-Poor Policy Change
The key steps of the ROA framework12. Refine conclusions with in-depth interviews and
assess the real contribution of the project on the policy change
Before TodayBP 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
BP1 0 1 2 3,4 5
BP2 0 1 2,3 4
BP3 0 1 2 3 4,5,6 7 8
BP4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
BP5 0 1 2 3 4
BP6 0 1,2 3,4,5 6,7,8 9
BP7 0 1, 2 3
Project 0 1 2,3 4,5 6 7 8 9 10 11
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External influence
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