hot topics on the lakes,val klump, phd, 9/2010
TRANSCRIPT
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Clean Rivers, Clean Lakes15 September 2010
Dr. J. Val Klump, Director
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Figure 1. Location of WATER Institute, inner harbor, Milwaukee
UWMsHarbor Campus
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water quality& pollution ?
Global Water Resource Issues:
how much is there& how do we use it?
population growth climate change
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Only 0.7% is accessible Freshwater.In 2000 the World already was using 54% of it.
~14,000 km
3
annual renewable supply
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People 6.4 billion today 800M currently undernourished
world wide Predicted population growth
8 billion (1 generation, 2025) 9.5 billion (2 generations)
2.6 billion more people to feed w/in ~ 40 yrs
Q: How much water?
Ans: more than is available,caveat: given the way we use water
the basic economics of water
79 M moreto feed each year
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1.2 B lack adequate safe drinking water (1 in 5) 25-50% >50%
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Disease Morbidity (episodes or people infected/yr) Mortality (deaths/year)Diarrheal Diseases 1,000,000,000 3,300,000Intestinal Helminths 1,500,000,000 (people infected) 100,000Schistosomiasis 200,000,000 (people infected) 200,000Dracunculiasis 150,000 -Trachoma 150,000,000 (active cases) -Malaria 400,000,000 1,500,000Dengue Fever 1,750,000 20,000Poliomyelitis 114,000 -Trypanosomiasis 275,000 130,000Bancroftian Filariasis 72,800,000 (people infected) -Onchocerciasis 17,700,000 (people infected; 270,000 blind) 40,000 (mortalitycaused by blindness)
Water Related Diseases (early 1990s, WHO)
Water borne disease ~ 2-3 M deaths annually leading cause of infant mortality
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Milwaukee learned its water lesson,
but many other cities haven't
The Year That Made Milwaukee Infamous - 1993
Cryptosporidium oocysts
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The planet is changing
temp.
sea level
snow cover
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projected mean change in annual runoff 1980-99 to 2090-99
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Water: the nextoil- but no substitute at any price
not a free good costs include treatment & distribution but alsoinclude ecological costs almost completely ignored > $1 trillion invested in US infrastructure EPA est. $350B over next 20 years in US to rehabiliate more public works $$ than any other single item
The most essential, yet cheapest commodity we use pay more for cable than water ~ $1/day < 1% of the water that enters your home is ingested
little incentive to conserve, or use water at its true value, e.g.
the 2 fastest growing state in the U.S., Arizona and Nevada are also the driest
water bill is a misnomer b/c the water itself is treated as free
Source: Jud Hill, Summit Global, Milwaukee Water Summit III
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Water = Energy
Electric power industry uses 39% of water in U.S.
First-generation biofuels = 50 gal H2O per gal ethanol
~ 20% of Californias electricity & 33% of its natural gasis used to move water!
In many older urban systems up to 30% is lost thru exfiltration leaks
Need to reconsider our activities in light of water
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Water Footprint
Source: UNESCO IHE Nov. 2006
water impact index: quantity, quality, energy, and stress[L. Auguste, Veolia NA]
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LaurentianGreat Lakes
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What do we know?
Given their size and importance we know
surprisingly little about what is going on.
Why?
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1. Our ability to detect effects is limited to major,unsubtle changes
2. Our ability to determine cause is even less wellquantified for many issues - complex
3. Our ability to forecast the future state of thesystem is confounded by both 1 & 2.
Cause and effect?
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The Great Lakes:
~ 20% of the worlds surface freshwater
would cover the US to a depth of 9.5 ft.
> 28 million people drink it !
Would seem inexhaustible, with assimilation capacity thatcould not be exceeded
Unfortunately despite their size they are surprisingly fragile
systems
Stresses on the system are many and real
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these are ~ closed systems
water residence time L.M. ~ 100 years
i.e. what goes in, stays in
dump it today drink it tomorrow
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Major issues, tipping points
these are not unique = global challenges
Ecological costs
Pollution & water quality historic & emerging
Ecological integrity
Hydrologic alterations land use, urbanization
Climate change
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#1 Pollution historical & contemporary problems
1500 fish consumption advisories related to the GL 20% of shoreline contains polluted sediments 1473 beach closings in 2003 on Lake Michigan alone
43 AOC within the GL - cost of remediation = $Bs
targeted by the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative
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Emerging classes of contaminants:pharmaceuticals, caffeine, personal careproducts, pesticides, fire retardants,
endocrine disrupters,nanomaterials
impacts? genomics medicine collection day
Dr. Rebecca Klaper
Fluoxetine (Prozac)> 2 ng/g in nearshoreL. Michigan sediments
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Exotic species
#2 a perturbed ecology
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1995
Base of food chaindisappeared in ~10 years
Invasive mussels on shallowreef bottom
1 of ~180 invasive spp
cost GL states ~$30M/yr
Fish - nothing to eat(T.Nalepa, 2006)
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beach
Photic zone
Deeper
Photic zone
Lake level
mussels
Zone of Cladophora growth
Expanded Zone of Clad. growth
nutrients
Increased water clarity
Avian botulism
Quagga mussel colonization of deep water
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Spread of zebra mussel invasion
2 ports of call away
from 99% of the world
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Dan Egan, Milwaukee JS series Dec. 04
Asian carp how big a problem?
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St. Lawrence Seaway:
Copyright Harpor House Publishers, Inc.Photo: Milwaukee JS
A 2005 study funded by Chicagos JoyceFoundation valued transportation savings ofoverseas shipping in the Great Lakes at $55million per year (Taylor and Roach)
Total loss estimate from exotic species ~ $2 B
Contaminated ballastwater from overseasshipping is the mainsource of Great Lakesinvaders
Economics & Policy
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3. What about climate change?
lake effect snow
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PHYTOPLANKTON PHOTOSYNTHESIS ( ugC / L / DAY )
98 El Nino
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downscaled climate
projections for Wisconsin WICCI
2090 A2 scenario shown
Annual temp + 4-9 F
Annual ppt + 1-3
Frequency of large ppt
events + 10-12 d/decade
increase in growing season
~ 6-7 weeks
D. Vimont, D. LorenzCenter for Climatic Research
(UW-Madison)
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Climate Change:A potentially dramatically altered Wisconsin
Source: Union of Concerned Scientists, 2003
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1992 1998
Surface water temperatures
1998 ~ 25% increase PP
(data: R. Cuhel, GLWI)
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What changes are we seeing?
Winters warming by almost 4oF since 1980
Decreases in winter ice coverage A longer growing season,
Several major heat waves
Shifts in the water cycle
A doubling in the frequency of heavy rainfall events
How do we see it?
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Regional teleconnections
change in summer wind field
Waples & Klump 2002
e.g. southerly migration of storm track
Alberta storm track
Colorado stormtrack
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hypoxia in Green Bay: climate impacts
warming = prolonged thermal stratification wind field shifts = enhanced nutrient trapping ppt. increases & extremes = increased nutrient watershed loading
Sep 2009 Jul 2010 Aug 2010
July & August 2010:
74% < 5 mg/L EPA std
55% < 2 mg/L hypoxic
Lower Green Bay
bottom water dissolved oxygen
Julian day 2010
170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240
DO,mg/L
0
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30 Jun 23 Aug 2010
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GREAT LAKES URBAN COASTOBSERVING SYSTEM (GLUCOS)
Detecting change
Improve ecological forecasting
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data: Harvey Bootsma
CO2 uptake CO2 released CO2 uptake
photosynthesis
respiration
MILWAUKEE MUSKEGON
OffshoreNearshore Nearshore
photosynthesis
Carbon dioxide concentrations in Lake Michigan surface waters
Improve ecological forecasting
High-speed ferry equippedwith GPS and automated
monitoring system for CO2,O2, temperature, algalfluorescence.
Nearshore buoy equippedwith meteorological
station, surface sonde,and CO2 monitoringsystem.
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The Milwaukee/Chicago cone of depression is one of the largest areas of groundwater
drawdown in North America -- By 2020 Chicago estimates that 11 suburbancommunities will face water supply shortages
Abundant water
are we exempt from water supply problems?
The answer is NO
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Urgent need for new technologies:
monitoring & sensor technologies waste treatment technologies 0discharge
conservation technologies industrial,
agricultural, domestic use
water purification & disease elimination
regeneration technologies
redesign industrial systems to mimic biological
systems & progressively eliminate waste
food production technologies aquaponics
decentralized, residential scale systems more efficient cooling technologies
low energy desalinization - $5B $70B (2020)
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Global Economic Sectorannual value:
IT $600 B
Cell phones $500 B Pharmaceuticals $450B Telecomm $300B Semiconductors $250B Biotech $40 B
Response to Triple threat ~$23T by 2030, 84% outside U.S.
Scarcity Climate change
decaying infrastructure
In the US over the next 20 years CBO est.
~$65-100B/yr in investment and O&M costs for water infrastructure
Water $400B
Milwaukee:
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Food from Freshwater:
Growing PowerSweetwater Organics
Recycle/reuse technologiesMilwaukee:Americas Urban Aquaculture City
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Milwaukee United Nations Global Compact Cityone of 14 cities world-wide focus is on Freshwater
Environmental Principles: Businesses should:
support a precautionary approach to environmental challenge undertake initiatives to promote greater environmental responsibility encourage development & diffusion of environmentally friendly technologies
AQUACULTURE recirculating closed loop systems
PHOSPHORUS Reduction/Elimination/Removal
STORMWATER Abatement Detection of contamination Disinfection salt removal
SEWAGE TREATMENT Eliminating Inflow & Infiltration Increasing Efficiency of Wastewater Treatment
NEW TECHNOLOGIES Speeding the Adoption of New Technology by Municipalities
CONTAMINANTS / WATER QUALITY Real-Time Sensors Develop Grey Water System for Homes
INTEGRATED SOLUTIONS FOR MULTIPLE WATER PROBLEMS
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how freshwater systems work,
strategies to assure freshwater sustainability,
the links between human and environmental health infreshwater systems
technology that can be developed and applied to improve our
use, management and stewardship of freshwater, and
how science can inform policy and policy direct science for the
sustainable, equitable use of freshwaters globally
Graduate School of Freshwater Sciences
= the True cost of water
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New technologies, new tools,new platforms, new opportunities
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Water for Free !! . . . not!
How do we financea regional watermanagement effort?
One suggestion:
1 per 100 gal. for the water< 1 per person per day
3 per day < $12/yr ave. household
$3-4M per year
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our future depends uponfreshwater
$50-80B return
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the major challenge of the 21st century:
to reconcile the inherent conflict between humanactivity and environmental sustainability and to
preserve this asset for future generations
our challenge & a major opportunity for us to demonstratehow it is done
Science Policy
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At present we are stealing from the future, selling it to thepresent, and calling it gross domestic product
We can either create assets for the future ortake the assets of the future.
One is called restoration, and the other exploitation.Paul Hawken
Current water use = the opposite of sustainability
Rethink demand. . . Peter Gleick
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www.glwi.uwm.edu
www.water.uwm.edu
Thank you
http://www.glwi.uwm.edu/http://www.water.uwm.edu/http://www.water.uwm.edu/http://www.glwi.uwm.edu/ -
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MERCURY CONTAMINATION
& HUMAN HEALTH
ENDOCRINE DISRUPTORS
LEAD NEUROBEHAVIORAL
TOXICOLOGY
DEVELOPMENTAL IMMUNOLOGY
BIOREMEDIATION
FISH GENOMICS
DEVELOPMENTAL NEUROBIOLOGY
HEAVY METAL TOXICOLOGY ETHANOL TOXICITY
National Institutes of Environmental Health
Sciences
Investigators:
Ava Udvadia, Dave Petering, Michael Carvan,
Henry Tomasiewicz, Daniel Weber, Sandra
McLellan, et al.
Childrens Environmental Health SciencesCore Center
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