horizonwatch: technology trends to watch in 2016

© 2016 IBM Corporation

IBM Market Development & Insights

Technology Trends To Watch In 2016The CAMSS platform paves the way for Cognitive IoT

IBM HorizonWatch 2016 Trend Report – External Version

Contact: Bill Chamberlin, Principal Client Research Analyst / HorizonWatch Community LeaderFebruary 5, 2016



Table of contents

Preface

2016 Environment

Top Trends to Watch In 2016

Important Trends to Watch within the Top Trends

15 Emerging Trends To Watch

Appendix HorizonWatch Resources

2 05Feb2016 HorizonWatch: Technology Trends To Watch In 2016 (external version)



Table of contents

Preface

2016 Environment








About this report


This annual trend report, developed for an internal IBM audience, has been published for IBM Clients.

The objective is to develop a list of the most important current technology trends…the ones impacting the IT industry over the next 12 months. In doing so, we can all improve our understanding of these important technology trends.

Note: This report is based on internal IBM analysis and is not meant to be a statement of direction by IBM nor is IBM committing to any particular technology or solution.

This client version (and other HorizonWatch Trend Reports for 2015) will be available publically on Slideshare at http://www.slideshare.net/horizonwatching

http://www.slideshare.net/horizonwatching



Table of contents

Preface

2016 Environment








Global Economy: Slow return to growth. Fed rate hikes. China deflation? EU/EM politics.

6

World Economic Forum: Davos 2016 - The Global Economic Outlook

1. U.S. economy slows / Fed tightens rates

2. Questions about growth in China3. Rising income inequality4. Declining productivity5. Divergence in monetary policies

among major economies6. Build-up of sovereign and

corporate debt7. Significant adjustment in

commodity prices

World Economic Forum Summary:

05Feb2016 HorizonWatch: Technology Trends To Watch In 2016 (external version)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T56Gd4UkB74

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T56Gd4UkB74



Top 10 biggest global challenges

7

1. Food security

2. Inclusive growth

3. Future of work

4. Climate change

5. Future of global finance

6. Future of the internet

7. Gender equality

8. Global trade and investment

9. Long-term investing

10. Healthcare

Source: World Economic Forum

World Economic Forum: What are the 10 biggest global challenges?


http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/food-security-and-why-it-matters

http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/why-does-inclusive-growth-matter

http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/what-is-the-future-of-work

http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/climate-change-can-we-go-from-words-to-action

http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/climate-change-can-we-go-from-words-to-action

http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/what-is-the-future-of-global-finance



http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/what-is-the-future-of-the-internet



http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/will-the-future-be-gender-equal

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/what-s-the-deal-with-global-trade-and-investment



http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/long-term-investing-how-can-we-plug-the-gap

http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/long-term-investing-how-can-we-plug-the-gap

http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/how-can-we-make-healthcare-fit-for-the-future

http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/what-are-the-10-biggest-global-challenges





We are now in the deployment phase of the 5th wave of economic and social transformation

8 Source: HorizonWatch, IBM Market Insights05Feb2016 HorizonWatch: Technology Trends To Watch In 2016 (external version)



In the deployment phase, we are entering a new Cognitive Computing era driven by data harvested from the Internet of Things

9

3 phases of the internet

4 generations of computers

New Platform

1900’s 2016

Static

Mainframe Client/server PC Mobile “Things”

Web2.0

Characteristics of Computing SystemsTabulating Programmable Cognitive

Social/Mobile

+ ++ ++ ++ ++

Volume of data




Table of contents

Preface

2016 Environment








The 2016 HorizonWatch Technology Trends To Watch list

11

1. Industrial IoT2. Enterprise Robots and Drones3. Digital Transformation: The API-

economy4. Digital Marketing &

Personalization of UX5. The Data Economy6. Internet of Things Security7. Enterprise Wearables8. Healthcare IoT and Analytics9. Intelligent Vehicle Transportation10. Cognitive Computing & the Future

of Education11. Industry Clouds12. Software Development13. BlockChain14. Affective Computing15. Quantum Computing

Security

Cloud Computing

Mobile Computing

Social Business

Internet of Things

Analytics Platforms & Tools

Analytics Solutions

Cognitive Computing

Emerging Trends




Table of Contents

Preface

2016 Environment








13

Summary: Top Trends To Watch In 2016

13

1 SecurityA C-Level and boardroom issue. Complexity of external threats high with cloud, social, big data, mobile, and IoT. Spending is increasing, but companies are looking to reduce number of vendors. Strong demand for professional services and network security applications. Demand increases for SIEM, IAM, mobile security solutions.

2 Cloud Computing

Hybrid adoption grows. Cloud brokerage as an account control point. Development platforms mature. Enterprises demand vertically tailored cloud solutions. Containers are a must-have. Increased demand for IoT platforms drives up demand for cloud solutions. Watch the intersection with mobile, IoT, cognitive and security trends.

3 Mobile Computing

Device growth slows. Application growth drives initiatives. Mobile apps that make use of analytics are in high demand. Application management solutions are in demand, but enterprises are still in early stages of Enterprise Mobility Management deployments. Security and real-time risk awareness are top concerns.

4 Social BusinessThe social journey continues. Connecting people before, during and after every task, every business transaction. Mobile and social combined creates an “always on” work culture. Social analytics is a growth area. Developers are demanding innovative platforms, tools and APIs. The competitive landscape is crowded.

5 Internet of Things

Continued explosive growth of connected devices. IoT data is the new currency. Developers rush to build apps. Vendors rush to court developers. Today’s small IoT projects pave the way for future transformation. Security and Interoperability remain barriers. 2016 is year of OT and IT business integration. Big services opportunity

6Analytics Platforms & Tools

Explosion of new data continues. How to collect, store, manage the data securely so it can be analyzed? Interoperability of databases a requirement. Rise of low-cost data store alternatives. Hadoop, Cloudera, Spark. Users demand improved experience. Decision makers increasingly ask for real time analysis of data streams. Cloud adoption continues. IoT & digital drives demand for distributed data.

7 Analytics Solutions

Organizations become more data-driven, spurring analytics solution demand. IoT drives analytics services demand. Demand for improved back- and front-office solutions. IT and LOB participate in both buying decisions and deployments. Changes in culture, skills, business processes required. Analytic skills in huge demand. Integration and management services in demand

8 Cognitive Computing

Expect increased ecosystem activity. Consultants partner with solution providers. Low-cost service providers enter market. Acquisitions accelerate. Vendors court developers by improving their APIs and platforms. Integration of cognitive computing capabilities with cloud, IoT, and other platforms will emerge as a priority. Vendors rush to focus on industry-specific solution offerings. First mover advantage window of opportunity still open for now.

Source: MD&I HorizonWatch05Feb2016 HorizonWatch: Technology Trends To Watch In 2016 (external version)



Security: 5 trends to watch in 2016

14

1. Market growth. The security market continues to grow as the result of increased number of endpoints, increased complexity and new external threats

2. Enterprises look to services vendor for help. Security services, especially professional services, are in increased demand. Network security services is a large segment. Expect strong demand for both mobile enterprise management and managed security services.

3. Enterprises reduce the number of security vendors with which they work. Enterprises will place a higher value on solutions from vendors with broad security portfolios.

4. Growth in SIEM, IAM, mobile security and services. Enterprises will increase their demand for security solutions such as identity and event management (SIEM), Identity and Access Management (IAM) as a Service and mobile payment security in 2016.

5. Internet of Things applications create new security revenue opportunities. The increased security risk of IoT over pure IT systems remains a key challenge for IoT implementations. Enterprise look to consultants for help.

IBM Security video: Collaborate for Better Cybersecurity Defenses

05Feb2016 HorizonWatch: Technology Trends To Watch In 2016 (external version)Source: MD&I HorizonWatch, TBR

“The global cyber security Market to grow from $106.32 Billion in 2015 to $170.21 Billion by 2020, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 9.8%.” MarketsandMarkets

“By 2017, 75% of large enterprises will receive custom threat intelligence information tailored to their industry, company, brand, and environment” IDC

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hf08FLXvSQg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hf08FLXvSQg

http://www.marketsandmarkets.com/PressReleases/cyber-security.asp

http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS25333114



Cloud Computing: 6 trends to watch in 2016

15

1. Growing hybrid adoption. Hybrid is the end game for the most enterprises. Enterprises increasingly demand IT services as integration and management are complicated.

2. Cloud brokerage services. Both enterprises with more mature cloud environments and new cloud adopters will realize the benefits of brokerage platforms, tools and services.

3. Development platforms mature. Cloud development and test platform markets consolidate with Cloud Foundry the leading open-source option. Enterprises seek vendors with simplified development options, more monetization options and large ecosystems.

4. Enterprises demand vertical solutions. Vertical solutions, sales and consulting teams will be desired, bringing strategy consultancies to the forefront of enterprise purchasing decisions.

5. Containers are a must-have. For both IaaS and PaaS vendors, development and integration services around containers are in demand.

6. IoT platforms drive cloud solutions. Cloud allows for secure storage of massive amounts of structured and unstructured data central to IoT core function.

IBM Center for Applied Insights: Growing up hybrid


“More than 80% of enterprise IT organizations will commit to hybrid cloud architectures by 2017, vastly driving the rate and pace of change in IT organizations” IDC

"End users often cite the agility of IT infrastructure and economic reasons as drivers for cloud adoption, but we also expect that the proliferation of next generation applications born and run in the cloud will fuel its further growth."” IDC

http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/centerforappliedinsights/article/globalcloud.html

https://www.idc.com/research/viewtoc.jsp?containerId=259840

http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS25946315



Mobile Enterprise: 5 trends to watch in 2016

16

1. Enterprises pair mobile initiatives with analytics. Expect growth in back-end of mobile enterprise platforms analytics (e.g. sales and cloud collaboration platforms), analytics for VoIP, customer resource management and other productivity software platforms.

2. Applications drive mobile initiatives. Enterprise IT is leveraging applications accessed by a plethora of mobile endpoints to provide a degree of stability to their chaotic infrastructures.

3. Managing apps and information. Application and information management software helps enterprises reduce the complexity of managing increased amounts of applications as well as a heady volume of information generated and accessed by endpoints.

4. IBM/Apple Partnership. Apple and IBM are redefining the mobile enterprise one industry and role at a time by combining the exponential power of corporate data with the world’s best mobile technology.

5. Security and real-time risk awareness are top concerns. Increased in mobile devices accessing a growing number of applications that use corporate resources and data cause security professionals to want to know immediately when security is compromised.

bluemine Mobile Enterprise (feeds updated daily)


“Mobility continues to challenge enterprises across a number of fronts led by security, data integration, and device management. But the prognosis is good if not extremely good when we consider the massive new sources of efficiency and innovation that mobility delivers” IDC

http://w3.ibm.com/marketing/mi/mihome.nsf/pages/Hot+Topic+Mobile+Enterprise

http://w3.ibm.com/marketing/mi/mihome.nsf/pages/Hot+Topic+Mobile+Enterprise

https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=259815



Social Business: 4 trends to watch in 2016

17

“Collaboration itself isn't the goal. The goal is improved business outcomes.” Gartner

1. Continued demand for social business solutions. The need for connection and collaboration across mobile devices, desktops and other devices continues to drive social business technology adoption, despite challenges regarding culture change.

2. Business Process Transformation: Embedding social and collaboration technology into traditional front and back office applications does not insure success. Enterprises will need to develop new business processes, systems, and planning methodologies. New skills will be required.

3. Social analytics is a growth area. As the market matures, the rise of the data economy will drive demand for social analytics. Enterprises focus on developing the analytic capability needed to mine the conversations of customers, advocates, influencers and their collective networks

4. Developers demand innovative platforms and tools. Collaboration technologies need to be fully integrated into new enterprise applications. Developers need to leverage mobile, cloud, big data/analytics, and IoT initiatives and thus are looking for innovative collaborative platforms and tools.

IBM Infographic: Social Business


“The ability to link customer experience, workforce, commerce, business networks, and innovation together in order to deliver a holistic view of digital and social transformation is at the epicenter of where businesses will find differentiation” IDC

http://w3.ibm.com/marketing/mi/compdlib.nsf/41b3dc2211cc2f6ac12566a200259ba4/0e7bd762c37a73bc85257c97004c1bb3/$FILE/decide_when_a_detailed_busin_254741.pdf

http://www-01.ibm.com/software/lotus/images/ND-Social-Mail-Infographic.jpg

https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=259909



Internet of Things: 6 trends to watch in 2016

18

1. IoT is a growth market. Hundreds of billions of dollars will be spent on IoT projects over the next five years, benefitting the broad technology market.

2. Small IoT projects pave the way for future transformation: Low-cost, intelligent sensors and devices, networks and gateways enable a new path to IoT. Small IoT projects with an inexpensive approach, specific goals and planned rapid ROI.

3. IoT drives business integration opportunities by marrying IT & OT. Business integration occurs when IoT vendors, LOB and IT teams drive a new outcome, creating solutions that coordinate client’s business needs, operational technologies (OT) and IT.

4. Data is the new currency: Data acquired through the IoT can and will be used by third parties, requiring a new kind of IoT business: the data broker

5. IoT drives demand for other solutions, especially analytics and cloud computing. Virtually all types of IT products and services will be used in IoT solutions with a large focus on cloud and analytics technologies.

6. IoT is a solutions play, driven by consulting. The bulk of IoT revenue will come from services, specifically consulting, software, cloud and security. Business consulting helps identify IoT opportunities, define IoT solutions and develop a data security strategy.

IBM Video Watson Internet of Things Platform - Welcome to the era of cognitive IoT


“By 2019, 45% of IoT-created data will be stored, processed, analyzed, and acted upon close to, or at the edge of, the network” IDC

“Internet of Things (IoT)-enabled applications are poised to revolutionize digital customer experience and enhance digital operational excellence” Forrester Research

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SaULMi_wpP0





https://www.forrester.com/The+Internet+Of+Things+Heat+Map+2016/fulltext/-/E-RES122661



Big Data Analytics Platforms & Tools: 5 trends to watch in 2016

19

1. Interoperability of databases. Adoption of Internet of Things (IoT) systems brings increased volume and variety of data, enabling the data economy. Enterprises demand simple ways to ingest data from multiple sources and form factors.

2. Rise of low-cost data store alternatives (Hadoop, Cloudera, Spark). Services companies are shifting data to lower-cost data storage configurations, further impacting traditional legacy analytics vendors.

3. Users demand improved interfaces and overall experience. An increased backlog of legacy apps in need of user interface (UI) modernization causes pressure on IT. Many IT teams lack the skills on staff for rapid solution development.

4. Cloud adoption/consumption. Cloud adoption of big data storage solutions continues to grow. IT teams need help with the transformation, causing increased demand for services.

5. Developers demand improvements. Developers flock to container technology, seeking simple configuration management structures to rapidly push applications and updates. They also demand easy ways to integrate data from competing platforms.

IBM Center for Applied Insights: Stories from data leaders


“Through 2020, spending on cloud-based BDA technology will grow 4.5x faster than spending for on-premises solutions” IDC

http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/centerforappliedinsights/article/cdo_insights.html




Analytics Solutions: 6 trends to watch in 2016

20

1. Organizations become more data-driven, spurring analytics solution demand. Enterprises worldwide increasingly adopt analytics solutions to reduce costs and fuel business outcomes.

2. IoT drives analytics services demand. Internet of Things (IoT) complicates decisions about where to invest analytics dollars, driving professional services demand, led by consulting.

3. Distributed “Edge” Analytics: Expect increased interest in pushing analytics closer to the edge devices (e.g mobile devices, intelligent routers, sensor and actuators)

4. Improved back- and front-office solutions. Customers demand solutions that improve performance and operational efficiency, reduce risk and assist with compliance processes.

5. Predictive Analytics: Business leaders demand predictive analytic algorithms and modeling techniques to help them understand potential future trends in the data.

6. IT and LOB participate in both buying decisions and deployments. Vendors must be able to address both IT and Line of Business (LOB) requirements when delivering forward-thinking advice and technical expertise.

IBM Analytics: Cognitive Analytics: What’s coming in 2016?


“Advanced analytics solutions are becoming increasingly popular in driving business innovation and experimentation, and creating competitive advantage. Analytics leaders must now exploit new business models and ecosystems that will drive the operation of algorithmic business” Gartner

http://www.ibmbigdatahub.com/presentation/cognitive-analytics-whats-coming-2016

http://www.ibmbigdatahub.com/presentation/cognitive-analytics-whats-coming-2016

https://www.gartner.com/doc/3163817/predicts--advanced-analytics-beating



Cognitive Computing: 5 trends to watch in 2016

21

1. Leadership Required: As with any new technology, the Cognitive Era will require leaders who are able to transform business processes and corporate culture in order to leverage the technology.

2. Integration with IoT and cloud. Enterprises want cognitive systems that can be easily integrated with emerging IoT and cloud platforms. IBM’s launch of an integrated Watson IoT unit fills this gap.

3. Increased ecosystem activity. Consulting firms will partner with cognitive solutions providers. Acquisitions will accelerate as vendors aim to extend offerings. IBM will lead the way, but expect more announcements from companies like Google, Baidu, and Microsoft

4. Vendors increasingly court developers to their platforms. To accelerate innovation and monetize assets, platform players will increasingly target development communities. Example: Microsoft, FB & Google open sourced AI technologies in late 2015.

5. Pilots / Case Studies: Enterprises seek industry specific thought leadership content, including case studies and findings from early adopters within their industries.

IBM: What is Watson?


“Smart machines are increasingly penetrating customers' lives and learning the behavior and preferences of their owners. Some will become smart agents that take actions on behalf of their owners and become a customer of digital commerce” Gartner

“By 2018, over 50% of developer teams will embed cognitive services in their apps (vs. 1% Today)” IDC

http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/ibmwatson/what-is-watson.html

http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3191117




Table of Contents

Preface

2016 Environment




Appendix Other HorizonWatch Resources




23

Summary: Top Emerging Trends To Watch In 2016

23

1 Industrial IoT M2M, OT & IT systems converge. IIoT => digital transformation, data economy and adaptive supply chains. Ecosystem partnership activities (e.g. GE & PTC Thingworx). New business models & revenue streams.

2 Enterprise Robots & Drones

Commoditization of components. Improvements in technologies. Industry specific solutions in healthcare, agriculture, manufacturing, etc., Drone collision avoidance systems, ‘highways’, logistics, video analytics

3 Digital: API Economy APIs drive digital transformation. Firms view APIs as strategic assets and software products.

4 Digital Marketing & UX Customer data a strategic asset. Data-driven marketing. Personalization technologies emerge. Mobile & social.

5 Digital: Data Economy Data emerges as revenue source. Cross-enterprise integration unlocks data monetization opportunities. Rise in connected devices and IoT platforms create new feeds. Personalization will be a key data economy driver.

6 IoT Security IoT enables new types of security attacks. Services opportunity for 1) monitoring IoT systems/networks, 2) authentication platforms, 3) Device and Edge security systems

7 Enterprise Wearables Startups begin to focus on enterprise, pushing pilots and industry-specific solutions. Improvements in analytics, mobility and security drives adoption. Design thinking is applied to enterprise wearables.

8 Healthcare Analytics IoT drives digitalization and demand for analytics. Volume of patient data grows. Shift to personalized healthcare. Providers restructure and demand analytics solutions. Integration of research and operational analytics

9 Intelligent Vehicle Transportation

Safety will emerge as a key selling point for autonomous vehicles. Cost of autonomous vehicles must be reduced. Advanced Transportation Management Systems make travel smarter, safer, faster. Vehicles leverage IoT. Vehicle ownership questioned.

10 Cognitive Computing & Education

Personalized learning is the future. Cognitive apps & robots will assist the learning process and improve retention. Cognitive apps will mine the library of education content and improve the teacher / student experience.

11 Industry Clouds LOB influence creates demand for industry clouds. Access to domain expertise and best practices is a key driver. Industry specific data economies form & drive demand. First mover advantage still available, but closing.

12 Software Development Increased rate of change stresses developer capacity. Developers demand new open source tools, processes, and flexible platforms. Expect increased focus on UX & design principles. LOB demands mobile app versions of legacy apps.

13 BlockchainAwareness and initiatives grow. It’s more than just digital currencies, but potential impact on Financial Services huge. Linux Foundation unites industry leaders. Blockchain enables a secure IoT. Developers embed blockchain capabilities into industry clouds.

14 Affective ComputingDetecting emotions from videos, audio, text, facial expressions and gestures is a growth market and important part of future cognitive systems. Many potential applications. Companies to Watch: Affectiva, Realeyes, Sension, tACC, nVisio, CrowdEmotion, PointGraB, Omek InteractivE, SoftKinetic, and Elliptic Labs

15 Quantum Computing Mass market still many years away. Researchers focus on solving complex technical challenges. Governments continue to invest huge sums of money. Companies to watch include MSt, D-Wave, Alphabet, IBM, Alibaba, Intel, and Toshiba.

Source: MD&I HorizonWatch05Feb2016 HorizonWatch: Technology Trends To Watch In 2016 (external version)



Table of Contents

Preface

2016 Environment




Appendix Other HorizonWatch Resources




More Insights on Technology Trends are Available

25

Other slide decks in this IBM HorizonWatch 2016 Trend Report series have been posted to Slideshare

You are also invited to check out the following IBM websites and resources– IBM Academy of Technology– IBM Center for Applied Insights– IBM Institute for Business Value– IBM Research and Research News and 5 in 5– IBM’s THINK blog


http://www.slideshare.net/HorizonWatching

http://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/academy/index.html

http://ibmcai.com/

http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/thoughtleadership/

http://www.research.ibm.com/

http://ibmresearchnews.blogspot.com/

http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/ibm_predictions_for_future/ideas/

http://www.ibm.com/blogs/think/