hannibal’s campaign to rome - thinkingfinance · hannibal’s campaign to rome ... in 221,...

RRiisskk MMaannaaggeemmeenntt PPllaann

HHaannnniibbaall’’ss CCaammppaaiiggnn ttoo RRoommee

bbyy DDiimmiittrriiooss VV.. SSiisskkooss

This paper is submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the course Project Risks and Decisions (Msc in Project Management)

www.thinkingfinance.info

Date: 3 March 07

CCCIIITTTYYY UUUNNNIIIVVVEEERRRSSSIIITTTYYY


Table of Contents

Overview of the historical situation..................................................... 1

1. METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................... 2 1.1 Purpose ....................................................................................... 2 1.2 Scope ........................................................................................... 2

2. ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES ................................................................ 2 2.1 “Invasion to Rome” – Roles and Responsibilities ......................... 3 2.1 Project Sponsor ........................................................................... 3

3. BUDGETING ........................................................................................... 4 4. TIMING .................................................................................................. 4 5. SCORING AND INTERPRETATION .............................................................. 5 6. THRESHOLDS ......................................................................................... 7 7. REPORTING FORMATS ............................................................................ 7 8. TRACKING.............................................................................................. 9 9. WHAT HAS FINALLY HAPPENED? ............................................................. 9 10. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR US? ....................................................... 10 11. REFERENCES ..................................................................................... 11

1


Overview of the historical situation

In 221, Hannibal was elected commander by the Carthaginian army in Iberia.

The Carthaginian government confirmed the decision. He returned to his

father's aggressive military politics and attacked the natives: in 220 he

captured Salamanca. The next year, he besieged Saguntum, a Roman ally.

Since Rome was occupied with the Second Illyrian War and unable to

support the town, Saguntum fell after a blockade of eight months.

Hannibal continued to extent Carthage's territory: he appointed his brother

Hasdrubal as commander in Iberia, and in May 218 he crossed the river Ebro

in order to complete the conquest of the Iberian Peninsula. On hearing the

news, Rome declared the Second Punic War and sent reinforcements to

Sicily, where they expected a Carthaginian attack.

Surprisingly, Hannibal interrupted his campaigns in Catalonia, and decided to

win the war by a bold invasion of Italy before the Romans were prepared.

That venture was very risky one because he had to cross the Pyrenees and

the Alps with an army of 50,000 infantry, 9,000 cavalry and 37 elephants…

2


Risk Management Plan

1. METHODOLOGY

1.1 Purpose

This document describes the Risk Management Plan for the “Campaign to

Rome” Project. The purpose of risk management is to identify threats to

project success and to mitigate or eliminate the negative impacts to the

project.

This document will be reviewed at least monthly and updated as needed, as a

result of continuous process improvement efforts by the headquarters of

Hannibal’s army (the project management team). Lessons learned as a result

of continuing risk management efforts will be captured at the end of each

project phase and used to improve the division-level standards.

1.2 Scope

This Risk Management Plan identifies the procedures used to manage risk

throughout the invasion (project). In addition to documenting the approach to

risk identification and analysis, the plan covers who is responsible for

managing risks, how risks will be tracked throughout the project lifecycle, and

how mitigation and contingency plans are developed and implemented. This

document also describes how the project participates in division-level risk

management activities and reporting.

2. ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES

There are many stakeholders involved in managing project risks. In some

cases, one individual may perform multiple roles in the process.

3


Each of them is trained on his risk responsibilities by his manager when he

joins the project. Project councils (meetings) are used to inform staff on any

changes to the process of the invasion.

2.1 “Invasion to Rome” – Roles and Responsibilities

(Project Manager) Hannibal Barca – is responsible for approval of the project

Risk Management Plan, participates in the risk management process, and

takes ownership of risk mitigation/contingency planning and execution. The

Project Manager ultimately is responsible for the final decision on risk actions.

Project Team – participates in the risk identification process, and discusses

risk monitoring and mitigation activities at team meetings.

Project Senior/Functional Officers (Managers) – are responsible for ensuring

risk analysis is completed, risk mitigation/contingency strategies are

developed, and plans are executed successfully.

Risk Manager – is responsible for leading the risk management effort,

sponsoring risk identification activities, facilitating communication throughout

the execution of the risk management process, and ensuring the plan is

maintained.

The Risk Manager is responsible for providing Hannibal Barca (the Project

Manager) with recommendations risk actions.

Risk Owner – the person who is responsible for managing an individual risk.

The risk owner will be a member of the project team.

2.2 Project Sponsor

Carthage Government (Project Sponsor) – participates in risk identification

and risk activities as part of the project team. The Sponsor also receives

4


escalated risks and assists with mitigation and contingency actions for them,

as needed.

Except for all these, they have the responsibility to refit Hannibal’s army with

military material or human resources.

3. BUDGETING

In order to assure that there will be a risk forecast in every battle / action, a

risk reserve fund is set of about 12% of the battle total cost. Risk allocation

will be appeared in the project’s approved budget as the figure below:

Direct Cost

Indirect Cost Risk reserve fund 12%

Total Cost

Action 1 x

y

(x+y)*12%=z

x+y+z

Costs should be properly supported by realistic resources. No action or battle

is being accepted unless it fulfills the above criteria.

4. TIMING

The risk management plan defines the project will be completed in May, 216

and as an outcome will be the conquest of Rome.

The status of the actions for the risks selected to be mitigated will be reviewed

by Hannibal Barca on a monthly basis during their regular status councils

(meetings).

The risk management process will be reviewed, at a minimum, at the following

times during the project:

5


Quarterly beginning

At the completion of each major action/battle phase.

As it has already referred in the roles and responsibilities part, the project

team is mainly assigned to discuss risk monitoring and audit its processes’

regularity. Below are the issues which have to be reviewed throughout the

process:

Review period: Quarterly Progress and performance indicators

Project (Campaign) implementation

Progress/performance indicator

Status of indicator

Are additional actions needed?

Notes

A

B

C

D

5. SCORING AND INTERPRETATION

Qualitative Analysis

In order to escalate risks, it is suggested to impress:

Risk probability & impact

Thus, if

6


1. probability (0,1 / 0,3 / 0,5/ 0,7 / 0,9) * impact (0,05 / 0,1 / 0,2/ 0,4

/ 0,8) < 0,04 then the risk is considered to be low.


/ 0,8) > 0,04 and < 0,14, then the risk is considered to be

moderate.


/ 0,8) > 0,14 then the risk is considered to be high.

In the 1st occasion, risk is reported to risk officer (manager).

In the 2nd occasion, risk is reported to risk officer (manager). He is

responsible to transfer it to the senior office.

In the 3rd occasion, risk is reported to risk officer (manager). He is responsible

to transfer it to the senior office. Finally risk is transmitted to Hannibal Barca

(project manager) in order to decide about the mitigation plan.

Qualitative Analysis

The tool which is going to be used in order to evaluate risks and theirs impact

is interviewing technique.

We quantify the probability and impact of risks on project objectives.

Thereinafter we gather the optimistic, pessimistic and the most likely

scenarios.

WBS Element

Range

Pessimistic Most Likely Optimistic Action 1 Action 2 Action 3

7


6. THRESHOLDS

In that stage, we need to define the accepted values of the previous analysis.

That definition will help us to decide whether to accept a risk and try to

mitigate it or to avoid it and not take some considerable actions about it.

As long as we calculate risk probability and impact value by using qualitative

analysis, we set the minimum of acceptance value per kind of risk.

Kind of Risk Acceptable Risk Value Unacceptable Risk Value

Cost > 0,06 < 0,06

Schedule > 0,07 < 0,07

Army Staffing and Other Resources

> 0,03 < 0,03

Other > 0,05 < 0,05

7. REPORTING FORMATS

The risk owner is required to report updates to the Risk Manager at least per

2 weeks / month. The Risk Manager updates the plan to reflect the current

risk state. The Risk Manager reviews the status of risk activities at least

monthly with the project management team at the councils (meetings) and

discusses the effectiveness of the current action plans.

Below, there is a format which it is required to be filled in order the detected

risk to be accepted.

Data Element Description Example

Risk Identification Number

Unique identifier for tracking the risk.

1

Status Indicates the current status Open

8


of the risk item such as: open, closed, cancelled, on-hold.

Originator Name of individual who reported the risk.

-

Origination Date Date the risk was submitted. 12 May, 221

Assigned To Lead person responsible for creating and managing the mitigation activities.

Risk manager

Priority Reflects the importance of this risk priority.

High

Risk Approach Determine how the risk will be handled: mitigate, accept, avoid, transfer

Accept

Earliest Impact Date

Earliest date the risk could become a problem based on schedule

4 October, 217

Latest Impact Date

Latest date the risk could become a problem based on schedule

18 October, 217

Title Brief description of the risk Harsh winter in Alps

Description Gives a concise statement of the risk.

Crossing difficulties. Elephant’s survival becomes

very precarious.

Probability of Occurrence

Likelihood of the event occurring: Low

0,1 / 0,3 / 0,5/ 0,7 / 0,9 High

0,7

Impact Criteria Impact to the whole project Low

0,05 / 0,1 / 0,2/ 0,4 / 0,8 High

0,4

Consequence States the consequence of the event, if it occurs.

We lose our competitive advantage, our elephants. Negative reflection to the

battles. Difficulties in our

movements

9


Risk Handling Plans

Briefly describes plans to mitigate the risk.

Change direction. Wait until the winter comes

away. Communications regarding risks are continuous during the project both

through verbal and written reports.

8. TRACKING

The tracking of risk mitigation actions will be done via the project work plan

during the status reporting at the project (councils) meetings.

The records of the risks activities must be organized and classified per risk

occurrence.

The intent of risk tracking is to ensure successful risk mitigation. It answers

the question “How are things going?” by:

Communicating risks to all affected stakeholders (Hannibal Barca, the

city of Carthage, the Generals, the alliances)

Monitoring risk mitigation plans,

Reviewing regular status updates,

Alerting the leaders of the army as to when risk mitigation plans should

be implemented or adjusted.

9. WHAT HAS FINALLY HAPPENED? The successful commander (Hannibal Barca) was thirty years old when he

entered Capua (the capital of Italy), seated on his last surviving elephant.

10


He remained at Roman’s Throne until 206. Hannibal Barca poisoned himself

in winter 183/182 after losing a battle with Romans.

After Hannibal's death, Roman power was not seriously challenged for almost

six centuries.

10. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR US? Romans offered the inhabitants of Italy and -later- the Mediterranean world a

civil law code that contained some elements that we still consider to be

important. In fact, this is why Rome won the war against Hannibal. Its Italian

allies knew that Rome had more to offer than Carthage.

11


11. REFERENCES

1. Project Management Institute. (2004). A guide to the project

management body of knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) (3rd ed.). Newtown

Square, PA: Author

2. http://www.livius.org/ha-hd/hannibal/hannibal.html

3. www.bestpractices.cahwnet.gov/documents/Project%20Office%20in%20

a%20Box%20-%20Risk%20Management%20Plan%20...

hannibal’s campaign to rome - thinkingfinance · hannibal’s campaign to rome ... in 221,...

Documents