growing crude oil/condensate supply
TRANSCRIPT
Strategic Overview
Macro Outlook
Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial
Overview Summary
Q&A
Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply
26
0 500
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
MBD
Texas
0 200 400 600 800
1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
MBD
North Dakota
0 20 40 60 80
100 120 140 160
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
MBD
Ohio
Forecast Actual
Forecast Actual
Forecast Actual
Bakken +840 MBD
Utica +135 MBD
Permian +620 MBD
Eagle Ford +690 MBD
Canada +3,575 MBD
Total Growth 2012 – 2025 +5,860 MBD
2012
2012
2012
MPC Refinery
Sources: EIA, CAPP, MPC
Kraft ICC Testimony Page 89
Strategic Overview
Macro Outlook
Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial
Overview Summary
Q&A
MPC Refining Capacity in Advantaged Regions
27
100% in PADDs II and III
PADD III
PADD V
PADD IV PADD II
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
MPC VLO HFC PSX TSO
PADD II PADD III PADD I PADD IV PADD V PADD I PADD II PADD III PADD IV PADD V
Canadian Bakken Utica
Permian Basin Eagle Ford Gulf of Mexico Canadian
PADD I
Source: 2013 Oil and Gas Journal, MPC as of 2/1/2013
Kraft ICC Testimony Page 90
Strategic Overview
Macro Outlook
Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial
Overview Summary
Q&A
Ongoing Volatile Crude Spreads vs. WTI
28
Sources: MPC, Argus
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25 Ja
n-12
Feb-
12
Mar
-12
Apr
-12
May
-12
Jun-
12
Jul-1
2
Aug
-12
Sep-
12
Oct
-12
Nov
-12
Dec
-12
Jan-
13
Feb-
13
Mar
-13
Apr
-13
May
-13
Jun-
13
Jul-1
3
Aug
-13
Sep-
13
Oct
-13
$/BB
L
Mars
Maya
WCS
LLS
NDL
Brent
Kraft ICC Testimony Page 91
Strategic Overview
Macro Outlook
Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial
Overview Summary
Q&A
Expecting Attractive Crude Spreads
29
MPC Outlook
Brent/WTI Spread
LLS/WTI Spread
Brent/LLS
North Dakota Light
Canadian Heavy Differentials
Differentials
$7-$12/BBL, wider at times
$5-$10/BBL, transportation/quality based
$3-$5/BBL, domestic light sweet crude surplus
Competes with WTI and LLS, prices accordingly
Attractive, but narrowing with new pipelines and coker capacity
Volatile, extreme at times and impossible to predict
Kraft ICC Testimony Page 92
Strategic Overview
Macro Outlook
Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial
Overview Summary
Q&A
Ongoing High Marginal Rail Cost
30
St. James, LA
$14-16
$13-15
All costs shown as $/BBL Sources: MPC, publicly available Information
$10-12
LLS
Bakken
$15-16
$12-14
Cushing, OK WTI
Legend Rail
Kraft ICC Testimony Page 93
Strategic Overview
Macro Outlook
Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial
Overview Summary
Q&A
Compelling Advantage for Pipeline and Marine
31
Patoka, IL
Houston, TX $2
$5
$2
$14-16
$13-15
$6-7
$4
Chicago, IL
All costs shown as $/BBL Pipeline costs exclude any storage or transfer fees and line loss Sources: MPC, publicly available information
$10-12
$5-6
LLS
$15-16
Legend Rail Pipeline Marine
WTI
$12-14 $5
Bakken
Canadian
$10
St. James, LA
Cushing, OK
Kraft ICC Testimony Page 94
Strategic Overview
Macro Outlook
Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial
Overview Summary
Q&A 32
Bakken +840 MBD
Sandpiper
Canada +3,575 MBD
Patoka, IL
Production volumes are 2025 estimates vs. 2012 actual Sources: MPC, EIA, CAPP
MPC Refinery
Creating Crude/Condensate Advantage
Robinson
Light Crude
Enhancements
Southern Access Extension
Kraft ICC Testimony Page 95
Strategic Overview
Macro Outlook
Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial
Overview Summary
Q&A 33
Bakken +840 MBD
Additional Barging
Canada +3,575 MBD
Permian +620 MBD
Eagle Ford +690 MBD
Patoka, IL
Production volumes are 2025 estimates vs. 2012 actual Sources: MPC, EIA, CAPP
MPC Refinery
Creating Crude/Condensate Advantage
Robinson
Light Crude
Enhancements
Sandpiper
Southern Access Extension
Connectivity Enhancements
Kraft ICC Testimony Page 96
Strategic Overview
Macro Outlook
Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial
Overview Summary
Q&A 34
Bakken +840 MBD
Utica +135 MBD
Truck Unload Expansion
Wellsville Barge
Condensate Splitter
Permian +620 MBD
Eagle Ford +690 MBD
Patoka, IL
Production volumes are 2025 estimates vs. 2012 actual Sources: MPC, EIA, CAPP
Cornerstone Pipeline
MPC Refinery
Creating Crude/Condensate Advantage
Sandpiper
Southern Access Extension
Robinson
Light Crude
Enhancements
Connectivity Enhancements
Additional Barging
Condensate Splitter
Canada +3,575 MBD
Kraft ICC Testimony Page 97
Garry Peiffer MPC Executive Vice President and MPLX President
Kraft ICC Testimony Page 98
Strategic Overview
Macro Outlook
Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial
Overview Summary
Q&A
MPLX – Larger and More Valuable Part of MPC’s Business Sustain long-term growth
Significant midstream/MPLX logistics growth underway
Unlock value of MPC existing logistics assets via MPLX
36 Kraft ICC Testimony Page 99
Strategic Overview
Macro Outlook
Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial
Overview Summary
Q&A
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
10/2
5/12
11/2
5/12
12/2
5/12
01/2
5/13
02/2
5/13
03/2
5/13
04/2
5/13
05/2
5/13
06/2
5/13
07/2
5/13
08/2
5/13
09/2
5/13
10/2
5/13
11/2
5/13
Unit Price
Industry Leading MLP and Ready to Run
37
Focus on Fee-Based Businesses
Pursue Organic Growth Opportunities
Grow Through Acquisitions and Drop-downs
Maintain Safe and Reliable Operations
IPO
Source: Thomson Reuters
Kraft ICC Testimony Page 100
Strategic Overview
Macro Outlook
Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial
Overview Summary
Q&A
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
$MM
Midstream Infrastructure*
Condensate Splitters
Increasing Midstream Growth Investments
38
*Includes MPLX spend, midstream investments included in the R&M segment, Southern Access Extension Pipeline and Sandpiper Pipeline equity investment. Excludes maintenance capital.
Kraft ICC Testimony Page 101
Strategic Overview
Macro Outlook
Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial
Overview Summary
Q&A
Superior, WI
SAX
Canadian
Bakken
Flanagan, IL
Patoka, IL
Investing in Significant Growth Projects
39
North Dakota System (Sandpiper) Logistics equity opportunity – MPC
– Length, size: 610 Mile, 24”/30” + North Dakota Classic System and Bakken Pipeline U.S.
– Capacity: 580 MBD – In-Service: 1Q 2016 – MPC Investment: $1.0 B - $1.2 B – MPC Equity: 27% - 30% – Future potential drop to MPLX
Source: Enbridge
225 MBD
210 MBD Clearbrook, MN
Trenton
Superior, WI 60 MBD
Sandpiper
Minnesota Refineries
Beaver Lodge
Cromer Bakken Pipeline U.S.
145 MBD
North Dakota Classic Bakken Pipeline U.S.
Kraft ICC Testimony Page 102
Strategic Overview
Macro Outlook
Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial
Overview Summary
Q&A
Patoka, IL
SAX
Bakken
Flanagan, IL
Superior, WI
Canadian
Investing in Significant Growth Projects
40
Southern Access Extension (SAX)
Logistics equity opportunity – MPC – Length, size: 165 Mile, 24” – Capacity: 300 MBD – In-Service: 2Q 2015 – MPC Investment: ~$250 MM – MPC Equity: 35% – Future potential drop to MPLX
Source: Enbridge
Kraft ICC Testimony Page 103
Strategic Overview
Macro Outlook
Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial
Overview Summary
Q&A
Leveraging Existing MPC Assets
Expand refinery processing capacity to leverage geographic advantage – Condensate splitters at Canton and Catlettsburg
Increases total crude plus condensate processing capacity to 60 MBD from ~25 MBD
Phased infrastructure investment – Truck
– Barge
– Pipeline
Develop connectivity – Canton
– Catlettsburg
– Ohio River system to Robinson and USGC
– Regional refining markets Lima, Toledo, Detroit
Utica shale strategy
2012 – 2016 Projects $MM
Condensate Splitters – MPC 250
Cornerstone Pipeline – MPLX 140
Two Rivers Pipeline to Robinson – MPLX 70
Wellsville Truck to Barge Operation – MPC 30
Other* – MPC/MPLX 150
Total 640 *Other includes: Barges, Moreland Pipeline Injection Station, Canton Crude
Truck Unload & Crude Oil Trucks
41 Kraft ICC Testimony Page 104
Strategic Overview
Macro Outlook
Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial
Overview Summary
Q&A
Developing a Comprehensive Utica System
Proposed Cornerstone Pipeline investment
– $140 MM
Capacity
– 25+ MBD
Timing
– late 2016
$20 MM EBITDA
42
Youngstown
Lima
Canton
Ohio
Pa.
Wellsville Steubenville
MarkWest, Cadiz
M3, Leesville M3, Scio
To Toledo, Detroit, Chicago and Canada
Midland
MPC Refinery
Utica Gas Processing Facilities
Terminal Facilities
Proposed Cornerstone Pipeline
MPLX Products Pipeline
MPC Crude Pipeline
Future Build-out
Kraft ICC Testimony Page 105
Strategic Overview
Macro Outlook
Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial
Overview Summary
Q&A
Investing in Significant Growth Projects ~$2.2 B investment with potential annual EBITDA of up to $300 MM
43
MPC Projects Timing Investment $MM
North Dakota Pipelines Equity Option 2016 $1,200
Condensate Splitters 2013-2015 $250
SAX Equity Option 2015 $250
Wellsville Truck to Barge Operation 2013 $30
Other 2013-2014 $220
Total $1,950
MPLX Projects Timing Investment $MM
Cornerstone Pipeline (Utica Shale) 2016 $140
Robinson to Mt. Vernon 2014-2016 $70
Other 2015-2016 $75
Total $285
Kraft ICC Testimony Page 106
Strategic Overview
Macro Outlook
Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial
Overview Summary
Q&A
Additional Midstream Assets Retained by MPC
Current Retained Midstream EBITDA of ~$800 MM
Refinery 58 MMBBL storage 24 rail loading racks and 23 truck loading racks 7 owned and 12 non-owned docks 2012 throughput of 75 MBD for load racks and 500 MBD for docks
27 owned and 1,944 leased 694 general service; 1,041 high pressure; 236 open-top hoppers
Over 5,000 miles of additional crude and products pipelines –Owns, leases or has an ownership interest in these pipelines –44% of MPLX Pipe Line Holdings LP
Railcars
Pipelines
44
65 light product; 21.5 MMBBL storage; 200 loading lanes 19 asphalt; 4.3 MMBBL storage; 68 loading lanes Terminals
191 inland barges; 4.6 MMBBL capacity 15 inland towboats Marine
Kraft ICC Testimony Page 107
Strategic Overview
Macro Outlook
Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial
Overview Summary
Q&A
Drop-down Strategy Considerations
MPC created MPLX to grow midstream business and create a funding mechanism for strategic opportunities
MPLX investors highly value a consistent, long-term growth strategy
Ratable drops maximize value creation and retain flexibility for MPC
– Committed to 15-20% annual distribution growth rate for at least the next several years
– Larger drops will be considered if they meet strategic need
MPLX is establishing an optimized capital structure
Preparing MPC retained assets to be dropped, including tax considerations
45 Kraft ICC Testimony Page 108
Strategic Overview
Macro Outlook
Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial
Overview Summary
Q&A
Outlook for Continued Organic Growth
46
80
100
120
140
160
2013E 2014E
$MM
Adjusted EBITDA*
80
90
100
110
120
2013E 2014E
$MM
Distributable Cash Flow* (DCF)
($MM, except where noted)
2013E 2014E
Min Max Min Max
Adjusted EBITDA*
102 108 130 145
DCF* 100 106 100 115
Note: 2014E outlook excludes likely drop-down transaction
*Attributable to MPLX unitholders. Non-GAAP disclosure, see appendix for reconciliation to net income attributable to MPLX
MPLX 2014E Capital (100% basis)
– $148 MM
MPLX 2014
Kraft ICC Testimony Page 109
Strategic Overview
Macro Outlook
Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial
Overview Summary
Q&A
MPLX Summary
MPLX will be MPC’s primary midstream growth vehicle
Large portfolio of fee-based growth projects that will be immediately accretive to distributable cash flow
Clear line of sight to MPC midstream asset portfolio to support growth
Pursuing numerous projects to continue to grow portfolio
Committed to 15-20% annual distribution growth rate for at least the next several years
47 Kraft ICC Testimony Page 110
Tony Kenney President, Speedway LLC
Kraft ICC Testimony Page 111
Strategic Overview
Macro Outlook
Midstream/ MPLX
Speedway Refining Financial Overview
Summary Q&A
Speedway – Larger and More Valuable Part of MPC’s Business Sustain top tier performance in convenience store industry
Accelerate organic growth strategy
Leverage integration value within MPC’s Midwest infrastructure
Grow very stable cash flow
49 Kraft ICC Testimony Page 112
Strategic Overview
Macro Outlook
Midstream/ MPLX
Speedway Refining Financial Overview
Summary Q&A
Top Tier Light Product Volume per Store
50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Casey's Couche-Tard Pantry Susser CST MUSA Tesoro Delek Western Refining
Speedway
M G
al/S
tore
/Mon
th
Light Product Volume
177.1
Public C-Store Independent Refiners w/COOP*
AVG: 134.8
*Company Owned and Operated
0
10
20
30
40
Casey's Couche-Tard Pantry Susser CST MUSA Tesoro Delek Western Refining
Speedway
$M/S
tore
/Mon
th
Light Product Margin
31.2
Public C-Store Independent Refiners w/COOP*
AVG: 23.3
Source: 2012 Company Reports
Kraft ICC Testimony Page 113