growing crude oil/condensate supply

25
Strategic Overview Macro Outlook Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial Overview Summary Q&A Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply 26 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 MBD Texas 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 MBD North Dakota 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 MBD Ohio Forecast Actual Forecast Actual Forecast Actual Bakken +840 MBD Utica +135 MBD Permian +620 MBD Eagle Ford +690 MBD Canada +3,575 MBD Total Growth 2012 – 2025 +5,860 MBD 2012 2012 2012 MPC Refinery Sources: EIA, CAPP, MPC Kraft ICC Testimony Page 89

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Page 1: Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply

Strategic Overview

Macro Outlook

Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial

Overview Summary

Q&A

Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply

26

0 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

MBD

Texas

0 200 400 600 800

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

MBD

North Dakota

0 20 40 60 80

100 120 140 160

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

MBD

Ohio

Forecast Actual

Forecast Actual

Forecast Actual

Bakken +840 MBD

Utica +135 MBD

Permian +620 MBD

Eagle Ford +690 MBD

Canada +3,575 MBD

Total Growth 2012 – 2025 +5,860 MBD

2012

2012

2012

MPC Refinery

Sources: EIA, CAPP, MPC

Kraft ICC Testimony Page 89

Page 2: Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply

Strategic Overview

Macro Outlook

Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial

Overview Summary

Q&A

MPC Refining Capacity in Advantaged Regions

27

100% in PADDs II and III

PADD III

PADD V

PADD IV PADD II

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

MPC VLO HFC PSX TSO

PADD II PADD III PADD I PADD IV PADD V PADD I PADD II PADD III PADD IV PADD V

Canadian Bakken Utica

Permian Basin Eagle Ford Gulf of Mexico Canadian

PADD I

Source: 2013 Oil and Gas Journal, MPC as of 2/1/2013

Kraft ICC Testimony Page 90

Page 3: Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply

Strategic Overview

Macro Outlook

Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial

Overview Summary

Q&A

Ongoing Volatile Crude Spreads vs. WTI

28

Sources: MPC, Argus

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25 Ja

n-12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep-

12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Feb-

13

Mar

-13

Apr

-13

May

-13

Jun-

13

Jul-1

3

Aug

-13

Sep-

13

Oct

-13

$/BB

L

Mars

Maya

WCS

LLS

NDL

Brent

Kraft ICC Testimony Page 91

Page 4: Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply

Strategic Overview

Macro Outlook

Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial

Overview Summary

Q&A

Expecting Attractive Crude Spreads

29

MPC Outlook

Brent/WTI Spread

LLS/WTI Spread

Brent/LLS

North Dakota Light

Canadian Heavy Differentials

Differentials

$7-$12/BBL, wider at times

$5-$10/BBL, transportation/quality based

$3-$5/BBL, domestic light sweet crude surplus

Competes with WTI and LLS, prices accordingly

Attractive, but narrowing with new pipelines and coker capacity

Volatile, extreme at times and impossible to predict

Kraft ICC Testimony Page 92

Page 5: Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply

Strategic Overview

Macro Outlook

Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial

Overview Summary

Q&A

Ongoing High Marginal Rail Cost

30

St. James, LA

$14-16

$13-15

All costs shown as $/BBL Sources: MPC, publicly available Information

$10-12

LLS

Bakken

$15-16

$12-14

Cushing, OK WTI

Legend Rail

Kraft ICC Testimony Page 93

Page 6: Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply

Strategic Overview

Macro Outlook

Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial

Overview Summary

Q&A

Compelling Advantage for Pipeline and Marine

31

Patoka, IL

Houston, TX $2

$5

$2

$14-16

$13-15

$6-7

$4

Chicago, IL

All costs shown as $/BBL Pipeline costs exclude any storage or transfer fees and line loss Sources: MPC, publicly available information

$10-12

$5-6

LLS

$15-16

Legend Rail Pipeline Marine

WTI

$12-14 $5

Bakken

Canadian

$10

St. James, LA

Cushing, OK

Kraft ICC Testimony Page 94

Page 7: Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply

Strategic Overview

Macro Outlook

Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial

Overview Summary

Q&A 32

Bakken +840 MBD

Sandpiper

Canada +3,575 MBD

Patoka, IL

Production volumes are 2025 estimates vs. 2012 actual Sources: MPC, EIA, CAPP

MPC Refinery

Creating Crude/Condensate Advantage

Robinson

Light Crude

Enhancements

Southern Access Extension

Kraft ICC Testimony Page 95

Page 8: Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply

Strategic Overview

Macro Outlook

Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial

Overview Summary

Q&A 33

Bakken +840 MBD

Additional Barging

Canada +3,575 MBD

Permian +620 MBD

Eagle Ford +690 MBD

Patoka, IL

Production volumes are 2025 estimates vs. 2012 actual Sources: MPC, EIA, CAPP

MPC Refinery

Creating Crude/Condensate Advantage

Robinson

Light Crude

Enhancements

Sandpiper

Southern Access Extension

Connectivity Enhancements

Kraft ICC Testimony Page 96

Page 9: Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply

Strategic Overview

Macro Outlook

Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial

Overview Summary

Q&A 34

Bakken +840 MBD

Utica +135 MBD

Truck Unload Expansion

Wellsville Barge

Condensate Splitter

Permian +620 MBD

Eagle Ford +690 MBD

Patoka, IL

Production volumes are 2025 estimates vs. 2012 actual Sources: MPC, EIA, CAPP

Cornerstone Pipeline

MPC Refinery

Creating Crude/Condensate Advantage

Sandpiper

Southern Access Extension

Robinson

Light Crude

Enhancements

Connectivity Enhancements

Additional Barging

Condensate Splitter

Canada +3,575 MBD

Kraft ICC Testimony Page 97

Page 10: Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply

Garry Peiffer MPC Executive Vice President and MPLX President

Kraft ICC Testimony Page 98

Page 11: Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply

Strategic Overview

Macro Outlook

Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial

Overview Summary

Q&A

MPLX – Larger and More Valuable Part of MPC’s Business Sustain long-term growth

Significant midstream/MPLX logistics growth underway

Unlock value of MPC existing logistics assets via MPLX

36 Kraft ICC Testimony Page 99

Page 12: Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply

Strategic Overview

Macro Outlook

Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial

Overview Summary

Q&A

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

10/2

5/12

11/2

5/12

12/2

5/12

01/2

5/13

02/2

5/13

03/2

5/13

04/2

5/13

05/2

5/13

06/2

5/13

07/2

5/13

08/2

5/13

09/2

5/13

10/2

5/13

11/2

5/13

Unit Price

Industry Leading MLP and Ready to Run

37

Focus on Fee-Based Businesses

Pursue Organic Growth Opportunities

Grow Through Acquisitions and Drop-downs

Maintain Safe and Reliable Operations

IPO

Source: Thomson Reuters

Kraft ICC Testimony Page 100

Page 13: Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply

Strategic Overview

Macro Outlook

Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial

Overview Summary

Q&A

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

$MM

Midstream Infrastructure*

Condensate Splitters

Increasing Midstream Growth Investments

38

*Includes MPLX spend, midstream investments included in the R&M segment, Southern Access Extension Pipeline and Sandpiper Pipeline equity investment. Excludes maintenance capital.

Kraft ICC Testimony Page 101

Page 14: Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply

Strategic Overview

Macro Outlook

Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial

Overview Summary

Q&A

Superior, WI

SAX

Canadian

Bakken

Flanagan, IL

Patoka, IL

Investing in Significant Growth Projects

39

North Dakota System (Sandpiper) Logistics equity opportunity – MPC

– Length, size: 610 Mile, 24”/30” + North Dakota Classic System and Bakken Pipeline U.S.

– Capacity: 580 MBD – In-Service: 1Q 2016 – MPC Investment: $1.0 B - $1.2 B – MPC Equity: 27% - 30% – Future potential drop to MPLX

Source: Enbridge

225 MBD

210 MBD Clearbrook, MN

Trenton

Superior, WI 60 MBD

Sandpiper

Minnesota Refineries

Beaver Lodge

Cromer Bakken Pipeline U.S.

145 MBD

North Dakota Classic Bakken Pipeline U.S.

Kraft ICC Testimony Page 102

Page 15: Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply

Strategic Overview

Macro Outlook

Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial

Overview Summary

Q&A

Patoka, IL

SAX

Bakken

Flanagan, IL

Superior, WI

Canadian

Investing in Significant Growth Projects

40

Southern Access Extension (SAX)

Logistics equity opportunity – MPC – Length, size: 165 Mile, 24” – Capacity: 300 MBD – In-Service: 2Q 2015 – MPC Investment: ~$250 MM – MPC Equity: 35% – Future potential drop to MPLX

Source: Enbridge

Kraft ICC Testimony Page 103

Page 16: Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply

Strategic Overview

Macro Outlook

Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial

Overview Summary

Q&A

Leveraging Existing MPC Assets

Expand refinery processing capacity to leverage geographic advantage – Condensate splitters at Canton and Catlettsburg

Increases total crude plus condensate processing capacity to 60 MBD from ~25 MBD

Phased infrastructure investment – Truck

– Barge

– Pipeline

Develop connectivity – Canton

– Catlettsburg

– Ohio River system to Robinson and USGC

– Regional refining markets Lima, Toledo, Detroit

Utica shale strategy

2012 – 2016 Projects $MM

Condensate Splitters – MPC 250

Cornerstone Pipeline – MPLX 140

Two Rivers Pipeline to Robinson – MPLX 70

Wellsville Truck to Barge Operation – MPC 30

Other* – MPC/MPLX 150

Total 640 *Other includes: Barges, Moreland Pipeline Injection Station, Canton Crude

Truck Unload & Crude Oil Trucks

41 Kraft ICC Testimony Page 104

Page 17: Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply

Strategic Overview

Macro Outlook

Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial

Overview Summary

Q&A

Developing a Comprehensive Utica System

Proposed Cornerstone Pipeline investment

– $140 MM

Capacity

– 25+ MBD

Timing

– late 2016

$20 MM EBITDA

42

Youngstown

Lima

Canton

Ohio

Pa.

Wellsville Steubenville

MarkWest, Cadiz

M3, Leesville M3, Scio

To Toledo, Detroit, Chicago and Canada

Midland

MPC Refinery

Utica Gas Processing Facilities

Terminal Facilities

Proposed Cornerstone Pipeline

MPLX Products Pipeline

MPC Crude Pipeline

Future Build-out

Kraft ICC Testimony Page 105

Page 18: Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply

Strategic Overview

Macro Outlook

Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial

Overview Summary

Q&A

Investing in Significant Growth Projects ~$2.2 B investment with potential annual EBITDA of up to $300 MM

43

MPC Projects Timing Investment $MM

North Dakota Pipelines Equity Option 2016 $1,200

Condensate Splitters 2013-2015 $250

SAX Equity Option 2015 $250

Wellsville Truck to Barge Operation 2013 $30

Other 2013-2014 $220

Total $1,950

MPLX Projects Timing Investment $MM

Cornerstone Pipeline (Utica Shale) 2016 $140

Robinson to Mt. Vernon 2014-2016 $70

Other 2015-2016 $75

Total $285

Kraft ICC Testimony Page 106

Page 19: Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply

Strategic Overview

Macro Outlook

Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial

Overview Summary

Q&A

Additional Midstream Assets Retained by MPC

Current Retained Midstream EBITDA of ~$800 MM

Refinery 58 MMBBL storage 24 rail loading racks and 23 truck loading racks 7 owned and 12 non-owned docks 2012 throughput of 75 MBD for load racks and 500 MBD for docks

27 owned and 1,944 leased 694 general service; 1,041 high pressure; 236 open-top hoppers

Over 5,000 miles of additional crude and products pipelines –Owns, leases or has an ownership interest in these pipelines –44% of MPLX Pipe Line Holdings LP

Railcars

Pipelines

44

65 light product; 21.5 MMBBL storage; 200 loading lanes 19 asphalt; 4.3 MMBBL storage; 68 loading lanes Terminals

191 inland barges; 4.6 MMBBL capacity 15 inland towboats Marine

Kraft ICC Testimony Page 107

Page 20: Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply

Strategic Overview

Macro Outlook

Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial

Overview Summary

Q&A

Drop-down Strategy Considerations

MPC created MPLX to grow midstream business and create a funding mechanism for strategic opportunities

MPLX investors highly value a consistent, long-term growth strategy

Ratable drops maximize value creation and retain flexibility for MPC

– Committed to 15-20% annual distribution growth rate for at least the next several years

– Larger drops will be considered if they meet strategic need

MPLX is establishing an optimized capital structure

Preparing MPC retained assets to be dropped, including tax considerations

45 Kraft ICC Testimony Page 108

Page 21: Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply

Strategic Overview

Macro Outlook

Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial

Overview Summary

Q&A

Outlook for Continued Organic Growth

46

80

100

120

140

160

2013E 2014E

$MM

Adjusted EBITDA*

80

90

100

110

120

2013E 2014E

$MM

Distributable Cash Flow* (DCF)

($MM, except where noted)

2013E 2014E

Min Max Min Max

Adjusted EBITDA*

102 108 130 145

DCF* 100 106 100 115

Note: 2014E outlook excludes likely drop-down transaction

*Attributable to MPLX unitholders. Non-GAAP disclosure, see appendix for reconciliation to net income attributable to MPLX

MPLX 2014E Capital (100% basis)

– $148 MM

MPLX 2014

Kraft ICC Testimony Page 109

Page 22: Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply

Strategic Overview

Macro Outlook

Midstream/ MPLX Speedway Refining Financial

Overview Summary

Q&A

MPLX Summary

MPLX will be MPC’s primary midstream growth vehicle

Large portfolio of fee-based growth projects that will be immediately accretive to distributable cash flow

Clear line of sight to MPC midstream asset portfolio to support growth

Pursuing numerous projects to continue to grow portfolio

Committed to 15-20% annual distribution growth rate for at least the next several years

47 Kraft ICC Testimony Page 110

Page 23: Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply

Tony Kenney President, Speedway LLC

Kraft ICC Testimony Page 111

Page 24: Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply

Strategic Overview

Macro Outlook

Midstream/ MPLX

Speedway Refining Financial Overview

Summary Q&A

Speedway – Larger and More Valuable Part of MPC’s Business Sustain top tier performance in convenience store industry

Accelerate organic growth strategy

Leverage integration value within MPC’s Midwest infrastructure

Grow very stable cash flow

49 Kraft ICC Testimony Page 112

Page 25: Growing Crude Oil/Condensate Supply

Strategic Overview

Macro Outlook

Midstream/ MPLX

Speedway Refining Financial Overview

Summary Q&A

Top Tier Light Product Volume per Store

50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Casey's Couche-Tard Pantry Susser CST MUSA Tesoro Delek Western Refining

Speedway

M G

al/S

tore

/Mon

th

Light Product Volume

177.1

Public C-Store Independent Refiners w/COOP*

AVG: 134.8

*Company Owned and Operated

0

10

20

30

40

Casey's Couche-Tard Pantry Susser CST MUSA Tesoro Delek Western Refining

Speedway

$M/S

tore

/Mon

th

Light Product Margin

31.2

Public C-Store Independent Refiners w/COOP*

AVG: 23.3

Source: 2012 Company Reports

Kraft ICC Testimony Page 113