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June 2015

Global Trends in Grains

WHEAT SCENARIO

• South America overtaking US in exports.• FSU has emerged as another big exporter.• India trying to achieve self sufficiency.

Wheat import markets : While supply regions are few, (NA, Black sea and Australia), consumption is more uniform and

importing markets are uniformly spread across the Globe.

East Asia’s demand is consistent and growing at steady pace, Europe's import demand has

seen fluctuations.

High importing regions are North Africa and Middle east with 20 mmt each, South East Asia

imports another 17 mmt. ME & SEA have huge potential of growth.

With westernization of diet in SEA and EA, wheat demand will consistently increase in

importing counties. Erstwhile rice consuming population is increasingly using breads, pasta

and noodles in their diets.

Wheat is also important ingredient of animal feed. Whenever (like last year) wheat prices

reduces or basis between Wheat and Corn narrows, wheat usage in feed production

increases.

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June 2015

Supply Snap Shot of Main Corn exporting countries

MM

T

Despite lower production anticipations, Exports are likely to remain stable owing to heavy carry forward stocks

Source: USDA

INDIA WHEAT SNDIndia Wheat Govt. SND (Apr-Mar)

2015/16 2016/17 Change

C/i 17.22 14.16 -3.06Procurement 28.09 26.5 -1.59Imports 0.00 0.00 0.00Supplies 45.31 40.66 -4.65Sales 30.75 27.75 -3.00

PDS 22.34 22.10 -0.24Welfare and Relief

Schemes 1.60 1.65 0.05

OMSS 6.81 4.00 -2.81Exports 0.00 000 0.00Residual 0.40 0.40 0.00C/o 14.16 12.51 -1.65

HOPE ???????

FOR SURE FROM GRAINS SIDE………..

How ?• Grains and oilseeds production will continue to increase

and thus exports/imports of Grains will continue.• More weather vagaries across the world, forcing nations to

keep inventories, specially if you are a consumer.((Lanina and Alnino, droughts, ))

• Asian and specially SE Asia continue to grow, worlds growth coming from this part. Improved fin health improving demand for grains as well proteins.

• South America taking over US in terms of grain export volumes.

• Lets not underestimate the Dragon, It has only slowed a bit….it has potential to bounce back any time !!!! For sure they wd continue importing grains a/oilseeds and edible oil.

THANK YOU……CHEERS !!!