update on us grains council and world marketssfntoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/grains... ·...
TRANSCRIPT
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Update on US Grains
Council and World Markets
NC Joint Commodities
Conference
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference US Grains Council
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference
Developing Markets Enabling Trade Improving Lives
Trade is a Two-Way Street
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference Your Global Marketing Arm
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference
Export Market Development:
A Public/Private Partnership
U.S.
Department
of Agriculture
US Grains Council US Wheat Associates US Soybean Export Council Cotton Council International
Your Checkoff Dollars At Work !!
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference Exports are vital to U.S. agriculture
• Astounding productive capacity of U.S.
agriculture
• U.S. corn yields rising to 200 bu/acre.
• Unparalleled growth of middle class in
developing countries
• Exports are the major driver of future demand
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference Exports is not a spectator sport
• Array of policy issues w/far-reaching
implications – e.g. food safety, food security,
biotech acceptance
• Rise of competition
• Explosion of information and information
technology
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference Role of Export Market Development
Information as catalyst for change
• Build confidence in trade
• Find common ground with US agricultural interests
and international markets
• Find solutions and opportunities that make trade win-
win
• Build partnerships with export customers
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference
What We Do:
Demand Building
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference
What We Do:
Policy
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference
What We Do:
Marketing
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference
What We Do:
Enabling Trade
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference Global grains: “Interesting times”
• High grains prices
• China
• Political/economic turmoil
• WTO – TPP – T-TIP
• Policy issues and conflicts
• Biotechnology
• Biofuels mandates
• Market access
• Phyto-sanitary regulations
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference US Corn Supply/Demand
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Production
TY Imports
TY Exports
Feed Dom. Consumption
Domestic Consumption
Ending Stocks
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference World Corn Supply/Demand
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Production
TY Imp. from U.S.
TY Imports
Feed Dom. Consumption
Domestic Consumption
Ending Stocks
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference Major Corn Exporters (th.mt.)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
BrazilIndiaUkraineArgentinaOtherUS
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference Argentina Corn S&D (th.mt.)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000Production
TY Exports
Feed Dom. Consumption
Domestic Consumption
Ending Stocks
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference Brazil Corn S & D (th.mt.)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Production
TY Imports
TY Exports
Feed Dom. Consumption
Domestic Consumption
Ending Stocks
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference Ukraine Corn S & D (th.mt.)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Production
TY Exports
Feed Dom. Consumption
Domestic Consumption
Ending Stocks
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference
US Corn Export Sales YTD 2 Jan 2014
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
This Week Year Ago
unknown
Others
11 - 20
S ARAB
GUATMAL
VENEZ
TAIWAN
PERU
COLOMB
KOR REP
JAPAN
CHINA
MEXICO
28,643
12,769
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference US Soybean Supply/Demand
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Production
Imports
Exports
Domestic Consumption
Ending Stocks
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference World Soybean Supply/Demand
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
th.m
t.
Production
Imports
Imports from US
Domestic Consumption
Ending Stocks
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference World Soybean imports
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
China
Other
EU
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference US Cotton Supply/Demand
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Production
Exports
USE Dom. Consumption
Ending Stocks
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference World Cotton Supply/Demand
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
ProductionImportsImports from USUSE Dom. ConsumptionEnding Stocks
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference US Wheat Supply/Demand
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Production
TY Imports
TY Exports
Domestic Consumption
Ending Stocks
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference World Wheat Supply/Demand
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
Production
TY Imports
TY Imp. from U.S.
Feed Dom. Consumption
Domestic Consumption
Ending Stocks
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference So what can we expect?
Trends are easy: yield, production, economic
growth, consumer demand, trade
Discontinuities and disruptions hard to predict
• Weather
• Political and economic crises
• Policy shifts – Non-agricultural pressures
• Crises of consumer confidence
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
98.1
276
616
Households (millions)
Source: Global Insight’s Global Consumer Markets data as analyzed by OGA
Developing countries 30 year growth: 528%
Developed countries
30 year growth: 36%
340 Million Households
. . . . will enter the Middle Class by 2020
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference USDA 10-year Trade Outlook
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference Outlook for Coarse Grains Imports
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference
Feeding the World:
Competition
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference US Corn Use in Ethanol (mbu)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,0009
0-9
1
91
-92
92
-93
93
-94
94
-95
95
-96
96
-97
97
-98
98-
99
99
-00
00
-01
01
-02
02-
03
03
-04
04
-05
05
-06
06-
07
07
-08
08
-09
09
-10
10-
11
11
-12
12
-13
13
-14
14
-15
15
-16
16
-17
17
-18
18
-19
19
-20
20
-21
134 mmt
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference US Corn Price (US cents/bushel)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Price
Price Proj
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference What about CHINA?
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference China Corn Imports
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
th.m
t.
TY Imports
TY Imp. from U.S.
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference China and DDGS Price
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference What about CHINA?
Big Player Growing Pains Stay Engaged
Don’t Put Eggs in One Basket
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference What the future looks like
• 1 billion new middle class consumers
• Stronger consumer voice and power
• IT changing landscape of power, opportunity
• Mind-blowing Innovations
• More complex/vulnerable global supply chains
• Increasing competition in everything
• Rise and decline of nations and markets – Much
bigger role for China and India
• Land – water – energy constraints and competition
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25th Annual Joint
Commodities Conference U.S. Agriculture --
Elements of YOUR Future Success
• Consumer incomes (stability and growth)
• Rules of the game
• Trade environment – access, regulations, skills
• Consumer preferences and concerns
• Risk management
• Innovation - competition
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World Markets:
We Must Be There!
NC Joint Commodities
Conference