Airbus Global Market Forecast 2021 - 2040

Aviation connects and unites us!

* IATA industry statistics Fact Sheet released in Oct. 2021 (2021 vs. 2020)

Source: ICAO, IATA, IHS Markit, Airbus

An unprecedented shock

Covid in numbers – key data

5.0%RPK growth

-66%RPK decrease

2019 2020

2.7%GDP growth

-3.5%GDP decrease

+200million passengers

-2,700million passengers

82.5%Record Load factor

65.1%Load factor

2021* (YoY)

18%RPK increase

5.6%GDP increase

+470million passengers

67.1%Load factor

Source: OAG, FR24, SABRE, IATA, IHS Markit, OWID,

September 21 projection from Airbus GMF

Airbus expects a full recovery of air traffic between 2023 and 2025

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2019 level

IATA actuals

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Traffic (RPKs) base 100 compared to equivalent month in 2019

Source: Airbus GMF

Social and environmental considerations will play a role

New trends are emerging but too early to estimate traffic impact

Environment awareness

and passenger behaviour(Alternative) Energy costCorporate travel evolution

Source: ATAG, Airbus GMF 2021

Aviation economic benefits extend beyond our industry

Connect small islands to

essential business, education

and health services overseas

$3.5 trillion contribution to

annual global GDP (4%)

and 87 million jobs

Support tourism industry, over

10% of world GDP; with

many small country over 25%

Carries 35% of

World trade in value

GDP remains the fundamental long term driver for traffic growth

World real GDP (billion 2015 USD)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

GMF 2019

GMF 2021

Forecast ~2 years lag

Source: IHS Markit, Airbus GMF

Middle class: Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2015 US$

Source: Oxford Economics, Airbus GMF

Middle class will enlarge both in relative and absolute numbers

Middle class (millions of people)

% of middle class in world population

43% 49% 59% 63%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2010 2020 2030 2040

Other countries

Mature countries

Emerging countries

Forecast

2,970

3,810

5,000

5,760

x1.9

x1.0

x1.6

vs. 2020

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

21,000

2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040

GMF 2019

GMF 2021

Source: IHS, Airbus GMF

Traffic to reconnect to pre-crisis trend with 2 years shift

Annual RPK (billions)~2 years lag

Source: Airbus GMF 2021

Mature flows will grow by approx. 2-3% per year

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500 2,750

2019 2040

Domestic PRC

Domestic USA

Intra - Western Europe

Western Europe - USA

Western Europe - Middle East

Domestic - Asia Emerging

Domestic - India

Asia Developed - Asia Emerging

Central Europe - Western Europe

Indian Sub-continent - Middle East

Asia Emerging – PRC

PRC - USA

Asia Emerging - Middle East

Asia Developed - USA

Asia Developed - Western Europe

Asia Developed – PRC

Middle East – USA

Western Europe - PRC

Western Europe - South America

Intra - Asia Developed

Annual RPK (billions)

x 1.6

x 1.5

x 1.7

x 1.6

x 1.6

x 1.8

Top 20 traffic flows (RPK)

Source: Airbus GMF 2021

Domestic PRC to become the largest flow. Highest growth to/ from/ within Asia

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500 2,750

2019 2040

x 3.2

x 2.2

x 3.6

x 4.2

x 2.4

x 2.8

x 3.1

x 3.5

x 3.8

x 3.1

x 3.2

x 2.8

x 2.6

x 2.3

Domestic PRC

Domestic USA

Intra - Western Europe

Western Europe - USA

Western Europe - Middle East

Domestic - Asia Emerging

Domestic - India

Asia Developed - Asia Emerging

Central Europe - Western Europe

Indian Sub-continent - Middle East

Asia Emerging – PRC

PRC - USA

Asia Emerging - Middle East

Asia Developed - USA

Asia Developed - Western Europe

Asia Developed – PRC

Middle East – USA

Western Europe - PRC

Western Europe - South America

Intra - Asia Developed

Annual RPK (billions)

Top 20 traffic flows (RPK)

0% 50% 100%

2019

1999

0 50 100 150 200

2019

1999

Source: IATA, ICAO, Cirium, OAG, Airbus

Strong industry track record on productivity improvement

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2019

1999

0 100 200 300 400

2019

1999

+2 hours/day

Daily

utilisation

+18 seats/flight

Average

seats per

flight

+13ppLoad

factor

161

179

69.8%

82.5%

+45%RPK (m)

per a/c

300m

435m

8.5

10.6

Source: IATA, ICAO, EDGAR CO2 emissions, Airbus

Generating considerably lower emissions per Revenue Passenger Kilometre

CO2 emissions per RPK (grams)

0

40

80

120

160

200

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

-53%

Source: Cirium, Airbus

* Western built passenger aircraft above 100 seats – pax aircraft only / **1st generation: A300, DC 9, DC10, 707, 727, 737, 747 / 2nd generation: A310, MD11, MD80, MD90,737, 747, 757, 767, F100

Previous generation: A320 Fam., A330, A340, 717,737NG, 747, 777 / New generation: A220, A320neo Fam., A330neo, A350, A380, 737Max, 777X, 787 & new programs

Only 13% of 2019 fleet in service were new generation aircraft

1st generation** aircraft

(e.g. 727)

2nd generation** aircraft

(e.g. MD80)

Previous generation** aircraft

(e.g. A320ceo)

1st + 2nd + previous generation**

aircraft

New generation** aircraft

(e.g. A320neo; A350…)

OutlookHistory

Number of passenger aircraft in service*

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040

13%

Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥100seats) & Freight (>10t) | Rounded figures to nearest 10

Source: Airbus GMF 2021

Demand for some 39,000 aircraft over the next 20 years

7,700

15,250

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Beginning 2020 2040 2021-2040 New Deliveries

22,950

46,720

Stay

(34% of 2020 fleet)

Replace

(40% of deliveries)

Grow

(60% of deliveries)

New deliveries

39,020

23,770

Fleet in service (thousands)

Out of the 2021-2040 demand, 76% is for small aircraft category

Note: demand for all commercial aircraft above 100 seats & freighters above 10t

Jet Passenger aircraft >=100 seats and Freighter >=10 tons

Source: Airbus Market Forecasts

29,690 aircraft

76% share of total new del.

5,340 aircraft

14% share of total new del.

3,990 aircraft

10% share of total new del

SMALL MEDIUM LARGE

Jet passenger aircraft >=100 seats and Freighter >=10 tons

Source: Airbus Market Forecasts

2019-2040 fleet in service

1,440

1,740

2,820

3,210

8,390

8,490

9,730

10,900

680

1,110

1,440

1,300

4,950

5,700

3,960

3,810

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

Africa

CIS

Latin America

Middle East

Europe

North America

Asia-Pacific ex. PRC

PRC, x2.9

2019 2040

x 2.9

x 2.5

x 1.5

Aircraft in service

x 1.7

x 2.5

x 2.0

x 1.6

x 2.1

Jet passenger aircraft >=100 seats and Freighter >=10 tons

Source: Airbus Market Forecasts

Large aircraft demand more concentrated in Middle-East and Asia

5,050

850

520

North

America

5,220

1,080

660

Europe

6,770

1,730

900

Asia/Pacific

2,170

190100

Latin

America

860

150

90

Africa

1,570

440

1,010

Middle East

1,160

160120CIS

6,420

6,9601,440

9,400

2,460

1,100

3,020

6,890

740

590

PRC

8,220

CATEGORY

Small

Medium

Large

Number of aircraftCentre

figure

Source: IATA, Seabury, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF

Strong cargo forecast driven by trade and e-commerce

World international trade World air cargo traffic

83%

17%

77%

23%

215 billion

FTK Express

2019-2040 CAGR +4.7%

General Cargo

2019-2040 CAGR +2.7%2019

2040410 billion

FTK

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2004 2010 2016 2022 2028 2034 2040

(trillion 2015 $US)

Forecast

3.0% 2.5%

4.2%2.7%

CAGR 2004-2019 CAGR 2019-2040

World GDP World international trade

Note: Jet freighter aircraft, payload > 10ton

Source: Airbus GMF21

The freighter fleet will reach almost 3,000 aircraft by 2040

540

1,490

950

2,440

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Beginning 2020 2040 Demand

Stay

Replace

Grow

Demand

Freighter fleet in service

evolution

2,030

2,980

880 new

built

1560

converted

Note: Jet freighter aircraft, payload > 10ton

Source: Airbus GMF

World demand for ~2,440 freighter aircraft 2021-2040

1,000 small

freighters

900 mid size

freighters

540 large

freighters

Small (10t - 40t) Mid-size (40t - 80t) Large (> 80t)

SMALL LARGEMEDIUM

New gen aircraft with 25% lower carbon footprint

39,000 deliveries

Summary

Traffic recovery under way

Fundamental drivers of passenger demand remain

Air traffic (RPK) forecast to grow 3.9% per annum

39,000 new aircraft deliveries by 2040

880 new freighters by 2040

Replacement with latest generation is today’s most significant

lever for decarbonisation

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