research & forecast report hong kong industrial market · 2/19/2013 · research &...

www.colliers.com/hongkong

research & forecast report

4Q 2012 | market overview

hong kong industrialmarket

market indicators forecast

overall performance

new supply

tenant demand

incentives

rents

capital values

yields

Industrial Property Transactions Nearly Doubled In 4Q 2012the sustained rent increases and low interest rate environment continued to attract end-users, especially small to medium-size companies and investors acquiring industrial premises for owner-occupation and investment purposes. in view of the dollar peg, the unveiling of a third round of quantitative easing measures (Qe3) by the us Federal reserve in mid-september 2012 has induced a gradual inflow of capital to hong kong, which in turn stimulated the hong kong property market. in late october 2012, the introduction of Buyer’s stamp duty and extension of the special stamp duty on residential property transactions prompted a group of investors to search for real estate investment opportunities in non-residential premises, giving a further boost to industrial sales market activity.

the strata-titled transaction volume in 4Q 2012 reached a new high since 1999. during the three-month period ending in november 2012, the total value of strata-titled transactions surged 98.9% QoQ to hk$18,552 million and the number of strata-titled transactions jumped 90.0% to 3,598.

in 2013, a more stable, yet pallid, global trade environment with sustained headwinds is expected. as the euro-zone continues to muddle through the debt crisis, the world economy should only expand at a tempered pace. the hong kong trade development Council forecast hong kong exports to grow moderately by 4% in 2013, edging up from about 2% growth in 2012. in addition, according to the various forecasting agencies, the pace of local economic growth is expected to pick up in 2013. it is our prediction that rents of factory and i-o buildings will increase by 8% over the next 12 months. meanwhile, in view of no new supply in 2013 and sustained demand from end-users, warehouse rents are anticipated to see double-digit growth during the year.

in view of the dollar peg and implementation of Qe3 in the us, the interest cost for acquiring industrial properties is anticipated to stay at a low level. as the investors are diversifying their investment portfolios to include commercial and industrial properties, investment demand for industrial premises will continue to grow. in addition, the sustained rent growth and low interest rate environment will continue to lure end-users to acquire industrial properties for owner-occupation. industrial yield is expected to continue its downward trend in 2013, declining 10 basis points over the next 12 months. Prices for factory and i-o buildings are expected to increase by 11% over the next 12 months while warehouse price growth is expected to outperform that of factory and i-o buildings.

p. 2 | colliers international

hong kong | 4q 2012 | industrial

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FACTORY RENT CHANGE Vs RE-EXPORTS VOLUME CHANGE

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Factory Rent (Year-on-Year Change) Retail Sales Volume Index (Year-on-Year Change, 12-month Moving Average)

FACTORY RENT CHANGE Vs RETAIL SALES VOLUME CHANGE

Source: Colliers; Census and Statistics Department, HKSAR Government

Source: Colliers; Census and Statistics Department, HKSAR Government

External Trade Performance Improved

the changes in economic performance of hong kong’s major trading partners over the past months, including mainland China, the us and the eurozone, led to volatility in hong kong’s external trade performance. nevertheless, the hong kong external trade performance improved during the three-month period ending in november 2012. the total value of re-exports increased by 7.4% year-on-year (YoY) to hk$903 billion, compared to a YoY decline of 2.4% recorded during June - august 2012.

in addition to external trade performance, local consumption also plays an important role in demand for industrial premises. the change in retail sales performance reflects the local consumption demand. during the three-month period ending in november 2012, the total value of retail sales increased 7.5% YoY to hk$106 billion, compared to growth of 6.3% YoY in the preceding three-month period.


colliers international | p. 3

Leasing Demand

Source: Colliers

industrial rentals (By suB-markets)

suB-market 4Q 11 1Q 12 2Q 12 3Q 12 4Q 12 QoQ change

(hk$ / sq ft / month) 3Q 12 4Q 12factory 8.72 8.85 8.96 9.12 9.41 1.8 3.2

cargo lift access warehouse 7.14 7.45 7.71 8.06 8.48 4.6 5.2

ramp access warehouse 10.34 10.83 11.26 11.80 12.44 4.8 5.4i-o Building 13.21 13.41 13.57 13.82 14.24 1.8 3.0

continued demand for Quality warehousessimilar to past quarters, the sustained local retail sales growth continued to support the warehouse sector. the outsourcing activities from some major corporations continued to attract a group of third-party logistics companies searching for quality warehousing premises to capture the demand growth for logistics services. according to our research, this group of tenants is looking for high-quality warehouse premises with sizes in the range of 30,000 to 50,000 sq ft.

on the factory market front, more landlords opted to convert the whole block of their industrial buildings to other uses in anticipation of potential rent growth after conversion. these property owners plan to empty their buildings in order to carry out the conversion work. similar to the previous quarter, the tenants in these buildings are looking for suitable premises with sizes similar to their existing addresses for relocation, which in turn stimulates industrial leasing market activity.

rent growth acceleratedsimilar to the previous quarter, limited availability of quality stock and sustained demand from third-party logistics companies continued to underpin the rental performance in the warehouses market, especially those with the physical provision of ramp access. Warehouse rent growth accelerated to 5.2 - 5.4% QoQ in 4Q 2012 from 4.6 - 4.8% QoQ in the previous quarter.

the relocation activity due to wholesale conversion of industrial buildings continued stimulating leasing market activity and the rental performance in 4Q 2012. in addition, the positive spill-over effect from the sustained rent growth in decentralised office premises continued to support i-o building rent performance. rent growth of factory and i-o buildings accelerated to 3.0 - 3.2% QoQ in 4Q 2012 from 1.8% QoQ in the pervious quarter.

Source: Colliers

Rental Index: Jan-2000 = 100

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FACTORY RENTAL INDEX


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I-O BUILDING RENTAL INDEX


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CARGO LIFT ACCESS WAREHOUSE RENTAL INDEX


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RAMP ACCESS WAREHOUSE RENTAL INDEX



Sales Market

surge in transaction volumesimilar to the last quarter, the sustained rent increase and low interest rate environment continued to attract end-users, especially small to medium-size companies and investors acquiring industrial premises for owner-occupation and investment purposes. in view of the dollar peg, the unveiling of a third round of quantitative easing measures (Qe3) by the us Federal reserve in mid-september 2012 has induced a gradual inflow of capital to hong kong, which in turn stimulated the hong kong property market. in late october 2012, the introduction of Buyer’s stamp duty and extension of the special stamp duty on residential property transactions prompted a group of investors to search for real estate investment opportunities in non-residential premises, giving a further boost to industrial sales market activity.

in view of the growing acquisition demand from end-users and investors for industrial premises, the developers have offered industrial schemes for pre-sale. For example, Billion development offered Billion square in tsuen Wan and 403-413 Castle Peak road in kwai Chung for pre-sale. scheduled for completion in 2013, Billion square will add about 874,800 sq ft to the market. in addition, 403-413 Castle Peak road project will add 215,800 sq ft to the market upon its completion in 2014.

the strata-titled transaction volume in 4Q 2012 reached a new high since 1999. during the three-month period ending in november 2012, the total value of strata-titled transactions surged 98.9% QoQ to hk$18,552 million and the number of strata-titled transactions jumped 90.0% to 3,598.

Source: Colliers

industrial prices (By suB-markets)

suB-market 4Q 11 1Q 12 2Q 12 3Q 12 4Q 12 QoQ change

(hk$ / sq ft) 3Q 12 4Q 12factory 2,319 2,355 2,538 2,729 2,984 7.5 9.4

cargo lift access warehouse 2,604 2,716 2,863 3,092 3,309 8.0 7.0

ramp access warehouse 2,740 2,869 3,100 3,302 3,632 6.5 10.0i-o Building 3,405 3,456 3,595 3,856 4,186 7.3 8.6

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STRATA-TITLED INDUSTRIAL PROPERTY TRANSACTION VOLUME

Source: EPRC



prices increase furtherindustrial property prices increased further in 4Q 2012, thanks to the sustained demand from both end-users and investors. during the period from september to november 2012, industrial property prices increased by 7.0 - 10.0% QoQ, compared to 6.5 - 8.0% QoQ in the preceding three-month period.

whole-Block sales market activity improvedthe whole-block sales market activity improved in 4Q 2012 after a consolidation period in the previous quarter. during the period from september to november 2012, six whole-block sales transactions were recorded, up from one transaction in the preceding three-month period. in november, a local contractor acquired the whole block of Yeu shing industrial Building in tuen mun from a local investor for hk$500 million. Based on a total floor area of 230,000 sq ft, the average price was hk$2,174 per sq ft. the government approved the vendor’s plan for converting the existing building for commercial uses – including nine floors for office and five floors for retail uses.

yield edged down furtheraccording to government statistics, the private flatted factory yield saw further compression during the review period. the yield decreased from 3.6% in april 2012 to 3.4% in July 2012 and then further downward to 3.1% in october 2012. looking ahead, in view of the Qe3 in the us and the dollar peg, hong kong interest rates are expected to stay at low levels. We anticipate industrial property yield will be compressed by 10 basis points in 2013, supporting further price increases in coming quarters.

Source: Rating and Valuation Department, HKSAR Government

Source: Colliers

Yiel

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PRIVATE FLATTED FACTORY YIELDS TREND

Factory Yield I-O Building Yield

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FACTORY AND I-O BUILDING RENTAL YIELDS

Cargo Lift Access Warehouse Ramp Access Warehouse

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WAREHOUSE RENTAL YIELDS



Revitalising Industrial Buildings

five more executed special waiver cases recordedmore owners are looking into the potential of their single-owned industrial buildings, which are eligible for wholesale conversion to other uses or redevelopment under the revitalised industrial building scheme. as of the end of november 2012, 88 applications had been received by the lands department since the launch of the new measures, including 74 applications for conversion and 14 for redevelopment.

two-thirds of executed cases located in kowloon eastof these applications, 27 special waiver (wholesale conversion) cases have been executed, while five of the cases were recorded during the period from september to november 2012. the owners plan to convert their buildings to office, retail, hotel and other uses.

the ongoing transformation of kowloon east into a business district continued attracting owners to convert their industrial buildings in the district to other uses. among the five special waiver (wholesale conversion) cases executed during the review period, four of them are located in kowloon east. in addition, since the implementation of revitalising industrial building policy in april 2010, 18 buildings or two-thirds of the executed cases are located in the district.

Source: Lands Department; Colliers

executed special waiver cases

execution date

location Building name usernumBer of

storeysBuilding size

(sq ft)

24 aug 12 164 Wai Wip street, kwun tong

Candy novelty house hotel 21 69,600

14 sep 12 213 Wai Yip street, kwun tong

Pioneer Building eating place, office, Private club, shop and services

10 245,700

19 sep 12 6 shing Yip street, kwun tong

Prosperity Place office and other uses 27 240,000

22 oct 12 16 hung to road, kwun tong

houtex industrial Building office and eating place 15 information not available

22 oct 12 16-18 Yip shing street, tsuen Wan

Water textiles Bleaching & dyeing mill

shop and services 5 44,700



New Industrial Building Supply

there were no new industrial buildings completed during the review period. looking forward, four industrial buildings are expected to be completed in 2013 and 2014, adding 1.3 million sq ft to the market upon their completions.

the increase in demand from end-users and investors for industrial premises has stimulated individual developers to redevelop the old industrial buildings. during the period from 2006 to 2012, the average new supply of private industrial buildings was about 0.5 million sq ft per year. although the level of new supply will increase in the coming two years, its impact on the overall vacancy level is anticipated to be mild as the existing private industrial building stock is about 185 million sq ft.

warehouse supply gap in 2013no new warehouse developments will be completed in 2013. in addition, the revitalising industrial building policy will have an impact on warehouse supply. as more landlords opt for converting or redeveloping their buildings for other uses, the floor space available for warehouse use, including cargo lift warehouses on upper floors and those on ground level, will diminish. moreover, the demand from data centre operators for high-ceiling industrial premises has intensified the competition for high- quality warehouse premises. over the past two years, about 2.1 million sq ft of warehouse premises were removed from the market.

Source: Buildings Department, HKSAR Government; Colliers

new industrial Buildings to Be completed in 2013 and 2014

district developmentgross floor

area (sq ft)Building type developer status

kwun tong 35 hung to road 126,400 industrial First group under construction

tsuen Wan Billion square, 3 hoi shing road 874,800 industrial Billion development under construction

tsuen Wan 2-6 Fui Yiu kok street 93,600 industrial hkr international under construction

kwai Chung 403-413 Castle Peak road 215,800 industrial Billion development under construction

1991 - 1995 Average 1996 - 2000 Average 2001 - 2005 Average2006 - 2010 Average 2011 - 2012 Average

1991 - 1995:4.1 milliom sq ft

1996 - 2000:1.0 milliom sq ft

2001 - 2005:0.1 milliom sq ft

2006 - 2010:0.5 milliom sq ft

2011 - 2012:0.5 milliom sq ft

0.0

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PRIVATE FLATTED FACTORY NEW SUPPLY

Source: Rating and valuation Department, HKSAR Government (1991 -2011); Colliers (2012-2014)

Source: Colliers

major warehouse premises removed from the market in 2011 / 2012

warehouse owner / developerfloor area

involved (sq ft)owner / developer’s plan

kowloon godown, kowloon Bay Wharf 1,923,000 to be redeveloped for residential / commercial usesPortion of kerry godown, tsuen Wan kerry Properties 150,000 Conversion for data centre use



tenant strategiesthe lack of new warehouse supply in 2013 will pose difficulties for the logistics operators seeking expansion as the prime quality warehouses, especially the ramp access warehouses, are virtually fully-occupied. For those logistics companies with leases expiring in 2013, some of the operators are seeking early negotiations with their landlords about lease renewal and possible expansion options in the same building. alternatively, some operators will choose to split their operations between a couple of quality warehouses in different locations in order to rationalise their rent costs.

new warehouse supply in tsing yi in the near termgoing beyond 2013, the next major new warehouse supply will be the two logistics centres in tsing Yi at tYtl 180 and tYtl 181. in anticipation of their completions in 2014 - 2015, the two logistics centres will add about 2 million sq ft of prime quality premises to the market. according to the latest statistics, the existing warehouse stock, as of the end of 2012, was about 38 million sq ft. the future supply at tYtl 180 and tYtl 181 will increase the warehouse stock by about 5%, which will help relieve the prevailing tight supply situation upon their completions.

moreover, the government plans to offer a 2-hectare plot in tsing Yi, which will be restricted to logistics centre development, for public tender in early 2013. the size of the future logistics centre is expected to be about 860,000 sq ft if the plot ratio of the site will be similar to that of tYtl 180 and tYtl 181.

tuen mun west – potential location for future logistics centre developmenttuen mun West is expected to be more attractive for the development of the logistics industry with the future completion of hong kong – Zhuhai – macao Bridge (hZmB), tuen mun-Chek lap kok link (tm-Clkl) and tuen mun Western Bypass (tmWB).

tuen mun-Chek lap kok link will be a dual two-lane carriageway approximately 9 km long, including a 5-km sub-sea tunnel, connecting tmWB in the north with the proposed hZmB hong kong Boundary Crossing Facilities, the airport and north lantau in the south. the southern connection of tm-Clkl is expected to open to traffic by the end of 2016, while the northern connection is expected to open in 2018. the travelling time between tuen mun and the airport will be significantly reduced to about 10 minutes with the commission of tm-Clkl.

the transport and housing department is conducting a traffic impact assessment and an ecological assessment for a site of about 3.8 hectares in tuen mun West to ascertain its suitability for the construction of a modern logistics centre. in the long run, the government will explore other land options in new development areas such as hung shiu kiu and northeast new territories and the reclaimed areas for modern logistics developments.

Source: Highways Department, HKSAR Government

New Territories

Lantau Island

Hong KongInternational

Airport

Proposed Tuen Mun Western Bypass

Proposed Tuen Mun - Chek Lap Kok Link

Proposed Hong Kong - Zhuhai - Macau Bridge Hong Kong

Boundary Crossing Facilities

Proposed Hong Kong - Zhuhai - Macau Bridge Hong Kong Link Road

NORTH LANTAU

HIGHWAY

LANTAU

LINKROUTE 8

TUEN MUN ROAD

YUEN LONG HIGHWAY

KONG SHAMWESTERN HIGHWAY

RO

UTE 3

(CO

UN

TRY PAR

K

SECTIO

N)

TING

KAU

BRID

GE

proposed "tuen mun - chek lap kok link" and " tuen mun western Bypass"



Market Outlookthere has been more positive economic data in the us and signs of re-acceleration in the mainland economy in the more recent months. however, the external trading environment is still subject to uncertainty as the euro-zone economy is back in recession.

in 2013, a more stable, yet pallid, global trade environment with sustained headwinds is expected. as the euro-zone continues to muddle through the debt crisis, the world economy should only expand at a tempered pace. the hong kong trade development Council forecast hong kong exports to grow moderately by 4% in 2013, edging up from about 2% growth in 2012. in addition, according to the various forecasting agencies, the pace of local economic growth is expected to pick up in 2013. it is our prediction that rents of factory and i-o buildings will increase by 8% over the next 12 months. meanwhile, in view of no new supply in 2013 and sustained demand from end-users, warehouse rents are anticipated to see double-digit growth during the year.

in view of the dollar peg and implementation of Qe3 in the us, the interest cost for acquiring industrial properties is anticipated to stay at a low level. as the investors are diversifying their investment portfolios to include commercial and industrial properties, investment demand for industrial premises will continue to grow. in addition, the sustained rent growth and low interest rate environment will continue to lure end-users to acquire industrial properties for owner-occupation. industrial yield is expected to continue its downward trend in 2013, declining 10 basis points over the next 12 months. Prices for factory and i-o buildings are expected to increase by 11% over the next 12 months while warehouse price growth is expected to outperform that of factory and i-o buildings.

colliers international (hong kong) limited

suite 5701 Central Plaza18 harbour road Wanchaihong kongtel +852 2828 9888fax +852 2828 9899Company licence no: C-006052

simon loexecutive director | research & advisory | asiatel +852 2822 0511fax +852 2868 5275email [email protected]

522 offices in 62 countries on 6 continentsunited states: 147Canada: 37latin america: 19asia Pacific: 201emea: 118

• $1.8 billion in annual revenue in 2011

• 1,250 million square feet under management

• over 12,300 professionals

Copyright © 2013 Colliers international.

the information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. no responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.


richard kirkemanaging director | hong kongtel +852 2822 0699fax +852 2107 6047email [email protected] licence: e-279867

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research & forecast report hong kong industrial market · 2/19/2013 · research &...

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