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Garden Furniture & Barbecues Market
Research & Analysis
UK 2018
Domestic Garden Furniture & Barbecues Market Size & Trends 2012-2022; PEST Analysis, Product Mix 2012-2022; Channel Share 2012-2022; Manufacturers Profiles, Garden Centres Profiles & Key Financials; Market Forecasts to 2022
1st Edition
September 2018 2
Research & Analysis Report Contents 1. INTRODUCTION TO RESEARCH & ANALYSIS REPORTS 1.1 Key Features & Benefits of this Research & Analysis Report 2. UK GARDEN PRODUCTS MARKET 2.1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & MARKET OVERVIEW 2.2 GARDEN PRODUCTS MARKET SIZE & TRENDS 2012-2022
2.2.1 Garden Products Market Size 2012-2022– Current Prices 2.2.2 Garden Products Market Size 2012-2022–Constant Prices 2.2.3 Garden Products Product Mix 2018 2.2.4 Garden Products Future Trends to 2022
3. UK GARDEN LEISURE MARKET 2018-2022 3.1 GARDEN FURNITURE & BARBECUES MARKET 2012-2022 3.2 MARKET TRENDS – KEY MARKET FORCES ON GARDEN LEISURE MARKET
3.2.1 PEST Analysis – Key Market Forces on Garden Leisure Trends 2012-2022 3.2.2 Number of UK Gardens 2012-2022 3.2.3 Average Garden Size 2012-2022 3.2.3 Average Patio Size 2018 3.2.4 Average Decking Size 2018 3.2.5 Political & Legal Influences & Trends on Garden Leisure Market 3.2.6 The Impact of Brexit on the Market 2016-2023 Short Term Brexit Impact (2018-2020) Political Impact of Brexit Economic Impact of Brexit Longer Term Brexit Impact (2020-2023) 3.2.7 Macro Economic Influences & Trends 2010-2023 Gross Domestic Product 2010-2023 UK Inflation 2010-2023 Interest Rates 2012-2023 UK Unemployment Rates 2012-2023 3.2.8 UK Housebuilding Market Size –Value & Volume 2012-2023 Housebuilding Starts – UK 2012-2022 Housebuilding Activity - Shares by End Use Sector Private Sector Housebuilding Market Starts–Volume 2012-2022 Housing Association House Building Market –Volume 2012-2022 Local Authority House Building Market –Volume 2012-2022 3.2.9 House Moving & Residential Property Market 2012-2023 3.2.10 UK Refurbishment Market 2012-2023 3.2.11 Self Build Market – Volume 2012-2022
3.3 GARDEN LEISURE SWOT – Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats 3.4 IMPORTS & EXPORTS OF GARDEN FURNITURE & BARBECUES 2012-2022 3.5 Garden Leisure Products Sales by UK Country & Region 20188
3.5.1 Garden Leisure Market Sales by UK Country 2018 3.5.2 Sales Breakdown by English Region 2018
3.6 Garden Leisure Market Future Trends & Prospects 4. GARDEN FURNITURE MARKET 4.1 Garden Furniture Market Size Current Prices 2012-2022 4.2 Garden Furniture Market Size Constant Prices 2012-2022 4.3 Garden Furniture Product Mix 2018 4.4 Garden Furniture Material Mix 2018 4.5 Consumer Behaviour & Buying Trends 4.6 Garden Furniture Sales Share by Month 4.7 Garden Furniture Future Trends & Forecast to 2025 4.8 Garden Furniture Suppliers Financials & Profiles 30+ Garden Furniture Suppliers Profiles, Company Overview & 3 Years ‘At a Glance’ Financials 5. OUTDOOR COOKING, HEATING & BARBECUES MARKET 5.1 Outdoor Cooking, Heating & Barbecue Market Size 2012-2022 5.2 Outdoor Cooking, Heating & Barbecue Sales at Constant Prices 2012-2022 5.2 Outdoor Cooking, Heating & Barbecue Product Mix 2018 5.3 Barbecues Market 2012-2022
5.3.1 UK Barbecue Market Size by Value 2012-2022 £M 5.3.2 UK Barbecue Market Size by Volume 2012-2022 5.3.3 Barbecues Market Share by Fuel Type 2018 5.3.4 Market Share by Barbecue Type 2018 % 5.3.4 Consumer Behaviour & Barbecue Purchasing Trends 2018
5.3.5 Barbecue Purchasing Seasonality – Sales by Month 5.4 Barbecue Suppliers 3 Year Financials & Profiles 20+ Barbecue Suppliers Profiles, Company Overview & 3 Year Financials ‘At a Glance’ Charts 6. DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS SHARE & TRENDS 6.1 Share by Key Garden Distribution Channel 2018, 2012 & 2022 6.2 Garden Centres Market 2018 – Industry Trends
6.2.1 Market Mix by Growth/Decline Over the Last 12 Months 6.2.2 Garden Centre Market Share by Credit Rating in 2018 6.2.3 Industry Mix by Age of Companies in 2018 6.2.4 Industry Share by Number of Employees in 2018 6.2.5 Industry Mix by Turnover Band in 2018 6.2.6 Industry Share by Location Type in 2018 6.2.7 Garden Centres Sales Mix by Geographical Region in 2018
6.3 Key Market Trends in the Garden Centres Industry 2012-2022 6.3.1 Garden Centre Market Profitability 2012-2022 6.3.2 Garden Centres Industry Assets 2012-2022 6.3.3 Garden Centres Industry Debt 2012-2022 6.3.4 Garden Centres Market Net Worth 2012-2022 6.3.5 Sales Per Employee in Garden Centres Market 2012-2022
6.4 Top 50 Garden Centres Sales Ranking & Turnover Estimates 6.4.1 Top 50 Garden Centres Listing 6.4.2 Garden Centres Ranking By Turnover 6.4.3 Garden Centres Turnover Estimates & Ranking 6.4.4 Garden Centres Ranking by Profitability 6.4.5 Garden Centres Ranking by Assets 6.4.6 Garden Centres Ranking by Debt 6.4.7 Garden Centres Ranking by Net Worth
6.5 Garden Centres Profiles, KPIs & ‘At a Glance’ 50+ Garden Centres' Profiles, Company Overview & ‘At a Glance’ 3 Year Financials
Market Report Tables & Charts Figure 1: Garden Products Market – UK 2012 – 2022 By Value £m
Figure 2: Garden Products Market – UK 2012 – 2022 Constant Prices
Figure 3: Share by Product in Garden Products Market 2018
Figure 4: Garden Products Market Forecasts – UK 2018 – 2022 By Value £m
Figure 5: Garden Leisure Market – UK 2012 – 2022 By Value £m
Figure 6: Garden Furniture & Barbecues Market - Share by Product 2018
Figure 7: PEST Analysis for UK Garden Barbecues & Furniture Market in 2018
Figure 8: Number of UK Gardens & Number of Homes 2012-2022 (Millions)
Figure 9: Average Size of UK Gardens M2 2012-2022
Figure 10: UK Economic Annual Performance– GDP 2010-2023
Figure11: UK Economic Annual Performance– Inflation (CPI) 2012-2022
Figure 12: UK Economic Annual Performance– Interest Rates (Bank of England) 2012-2023
Figure 13: UK Unemployment Numbers 2012-2023
Figure 14: Housebuilding Market – UK 2012 – 2022 By Value £m
Figure 15: New Build Home Completions UK: 2012-2023
Figure 16: House Building Starts by Volume – UK 2012 – 2022
Figure 17: UK New Home Build Activity Split by LA, HA & Private 2018
Figure 18: UK Private Sector New Build Home Starts 2012-2022
Figure 19: UK Housing Associations New Build Housing Starts 2012 - 2022
Figure 20: Local Authority New Build Housing Starts UK 2012 - 2022
Figure 21: UK Residential Property Transactions 2012-2022
Figure 22: UK RMI Market by Value 2012-2022
Figure 23: Self Build Market Housing Completions UK 2012 - 2022
Figure 24: Key Strengths & Weaknesses in the Garden Furniture & Barbecues Market 2018-2022
Figure 25: Key Opportunities & Threats in the Garden Products Market 2018-2022
OPPORTUNITIES
THREATS
Figure 26: Imports of Garden Furniture & Barbecues By Value 2012-2022
Figure 27: Share by World Region for Garden Furniture & Barbecue Imports 2018
Figure 28: Garden Leisure Sales Share by UK Country in 2018
Figure 29: Garden leisure Sales Share by English Region in 2018 (%)
Figure 30: Garden Furniture & Barbecues Sales By English Region 2018 £M
Figure 31: Garden Products Growth Share by Ansoff Strategy 2018-2022
Figure 32: Garden Furniture Market –2012–2022 Current Prices £m
Figure 33: Garden Furniture Market in Real Terms –2012–2022 By Value £m
Figure 34: Garden Furniture by Type of Product Shares 2018 (%)
Figure 35: Garden Furniture by Type of Material Shares 2018 (%)
Figure 36: Garden Furniture Sales by Month %
Figure 37: Garden Furniture Market Sales 2018–2025 £m
Figures 38 - 71: 30+ Garden Furniture Suppliers 3 Year Financials ‘At a Glance’ Charts
Figure 72: Outdoor Cooking, Heating & Barbecues Market –2012–2022 Current Prices £m
Figure 73: Outdoor Cooking, Heating & Barbecues Sales –2012–2022 Constant Prices £m
Figure 74: Barbecues & Outdoor Cooking & Heating - Product Shares 2018 (%)
Figure 75: UK Barbecues Sales –2012–2022 £m
Figure 76: UK Barbecues Sales by Volume –2012–2022Figure 77: Barbecues Share by Fuel Type 2018 (%)
Figure 78: Share by Type of Barbecue 2018 (%)
Figure 79: Barbecue Sales by Month %
Figures 80 - 104: 20+ Barbecue Suppliers 3 Year Financials ‘At A Glance’ Charts
Figure 105 : Share by Distribution Channel for Garden Products Market 2018
Figure 106: Market Share by Garden Centres Sales Growth / Decline to July 2018
Figure 107: Market Share by Credit Rating in the Garden Centre Market 2018
Figure 108: Market Share by Company Age in the Garden Centres Market 2018
Figure 109: Mix by Number of Employees in the Garden Centres Market 2018
Figure 110: Share by Turnover Band in the Garden Centres Market 2018
Figure 111: Mix by Location Type in the Garden Centres Market 2018
Figure 112: Garden Centres Sales Mix by Geograhical Region 2018
Figure 113: Garden Centres Market Profitability 2012 – 2022
Figure 114: Garden Centres Assets 2012 – 2022
Figure 115: Average Garden Centre Assets 2012 – 2022
Figure 116: Garden Centres Market Debt – UK 2012 – 2022
Figure 117: Garden Centres Market Average Debt 2012 – 2022
Figure 118: Garden Centres Market Net Worth – UK 2012 – 2022
Figure 119: Garden Centres Average Net Worth – UK 2012 – 2022
Figure 120: Garden Centres Sales Per Employee 2012 – 2018
Figure 121: Top 50 Garden Centres Company Listing
Figure 122: Garden Centres Ranked By Turnover 2017
Figure 123: Garden Centres Sales Estimates 2017 £M
Figure 124: Garden Centres Ranked By Profit 2017
Figure 125: Garden Centres Ranked By Assets 2017
Figure 126: Garden Centres Ranked By Debt 2017
Figure 127: Garden Centres Ranked By Net Worth 2017
Figures 128 - 180: 50+ Garden Centres' 3 Year Financials ‘At A Glance’ Charts
Published in 2018 by
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2. UK GARDEN PRODUCTS MARKET
2.1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & MARKET OVERVIEW
This report reviews the UK domestic garden furniture & barbecues market (jointly referred to as the ‘Garden Leisure’ market) between 2012 and 2018 and forecasts
to 2022. The report also provides an overview of the total domestic garden products market 2012-2022 which includes a wide range of products suitable for a
variety of applications within a domestic garden environment including the following key sectors:-
� Garden Tools & Equipment – hand tools, power tools, lawnmowers
� Garden Timber & Hard Landscaping – decking, fencing, trellis, pergolas, garden paving, walling &
aggregates
� Water Features & Garden Decoration – fountains, water features,
ponds, pumps, hoses, irrigation,
controls, garden lighting, pots, tubs, planters.
� Garden Chemicals & Lawncare – lawn care, weedkillers, fertilisers, compost, food, pest control.
� Garden Furniture & Barbecues – garden furniture, barbecues, outdoor cooking appliances, accessories & fuel.
� Garden Sheds, Greenhouses & Buildings – sheds, greenhouses, summerhouses, cabins, garden rooms.
� Horticultural & Greenstock – seeds, bulbs, perennial plants, roses, climbers, bedding plants, ferns &
grasses, shrubs, house plants, fruit & vegetable plants/trees
The total combined sales of the products above are estimated to be worth just over £x billion at retail selling prices in 2018, with the market having experienced
positive growth in recent years. Despite some uncertainty relating to Brexit,
forecasts remain positive for the overall market in the near to medium term, though the interest rate rise in August 2018 and slowing of consumer spending in
some sectors may represent an increasing challenge to the industry in the medium term.
The research methodology for this report includes both primary and secondary
research from a wide range of sources. Primary data sources include 3 years of financial data from product manufacturers and garden centres accounting for
combined sales of more than £5 billion, coupled with interviews and direct input from the industry. Secondary source data includes information from HM Customs,
company websites, industry journals, trade commentators, HM Government data, credit reference agencies, Companies House and our own experience of
researching and reporting on this market over the last 20 years.
2.2 GARDEN PRODUCTS MARKET SIZE & TRENDS 2012-2022
2.2.1 Garden Products Market Size 2012-2022– Current Prices
The UK Garden Products market comprises myriad products and is estimated to
be worth £5.03 billion in 2018 as illustrated in the following chart:-
Figure 1: Garden Products Market – UK 2012 – 2022 By Value £m
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Sales Value £M
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
% Change
Value £M% Change
Value £M 4261 4346 4486 4620 4754 4888 5034 5195 5351 5528 5718
% Change 0.3 2 3.2 3 2.9 2.8 3 3.2 3 3.3 3.4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
Source: MTW Research / Trade Estimates
The market has experienced average growth rates of 3% during the last 6
years, with performance strengthening between 2012-2014, before growth slowed slightly from 2015 onwards. Pricing pressure has remained significant
across the sector with 2 general elections and Brexit referendum impacting on consumer budgets and confidence levels to some extent.
There are a large number of underlying factors which prompted reasonably
positive performance in most sectors of the market in recent years including:-
• Improving Economy – Consumer confidence and spending have generally continued to exhibit resilience in recent years.
• Improved Weather – More clement spring and summers in general, resulting in higher usage of garden for leisure, boosting sales of garden furniture, BBQs etc. In 2018 clement summer weather resulted in selling season being extended considerably for furniture & barbecues in particular.
• ‘Pent-Up Demand’ – Improving level of household disposable incomes has released an element of pent up demand into the market.
• Focus on Value – Manufacturers & distributors are quick to respond to changing market conditions & respond to rising demand for products which offered enhanced value for money – underpinning volume sales.
• Rising Housemoving Activity–Housebuilding and moving has exhibited rapid growth in recent years, rising to more than 200,000 new homes in 2018.
• ‘Grow Your Own’ – ‘Organic’ and healthy eating trend continues in 2018, home grown food and consumers seeking to reduce household expenditure turned to growing their own vegetables & salads, boosting the horticultural & growing media sectors.
• Entertaining at Home – boosting sales of lighting, garden decoration, furniture & barbecues.
• ‘Staycations’ – Consumers increasingly holidayed in the UK in the last few years rather than abroad, further boosting demand for portable garden products & furniture.
• Value for Money – In a number of product sectors, retail prices declined to the level of wholesale prices (in lower value channels) therefore consumers were able to achieve good value for money.
• Product Development – Greater differentiation achieved as advances in manufacturing and innovation resulted in a wider choice and improved specifications across a number of sectors.
The above is by no means an exhaustive list but does illustrate some of the key underlying influences which led to the garden products market being
increasingly characterised as a robust sector which has remained reasonably resilient to fluctuations in the UK economy.
Whilst the market may experience a slight slowdown in growth in 2020, general
future prospects are for sustained growth, underpinned by a number of macro market influences, including:-
• Stable Consumer Confidence – Personal disposable levels continue to rise as a result of low inflation and low interest rates (despite August 2018 rise to 0.75%) coupled with modest salary inflation.
• Low Unemployment– Supporting consumer spending levels in general, increasing volume demand in general terms.
• Growth in Housebuilding – Sustaining volume demand growth as the number of new build houses with gardens and outside spaces continues to grow steadily, completions exceed 200,000 in 2018.
• Rising Number of Housing Transactions – Prompting volume demand growth with housemoving often a key stimulus for purchase.
• Government Monetary Policies – Rising level of funding for new build social housing, Government support for first time buyers etc.
• Clement Weather –spring / summer weather patterns have provided reasonably clement weather conditions, supporting sales growth, 2018 summer boosted Garden Leisure product demand and extended selling season.
• Sustained Product Development – Manufacturers continue to seek to develop differentiation in mid-higher value sectors in order to combat threat of lower value imports & sustained price competition.
• Market Development – Manufacturers and Distributors increasingly seeking to augment sales by undertaking more sophisticated strategic marketing.
• Consumer Trends – Sustained use of the garden for a variety of purposes as an entertaining space, ‘outdoor living’ space, use of the garden to add value to the home, play space, home office / work space etc.
• Developments in Distribution – Ongoing growth in internet retailing, sophisticated merchandising / POS techniques, ‘destination shopping’ – e.g Garden Centres with play areas / cafes / leisure activities etc., increasingly clear market positions of distribution channels, increasing prevalence of exclusivity agreements in higher value sector.
• Improved Communication – Growth in use of social media / internet to increase flow of product benefits to consumers, growth in flow of information across supply chain, growth in loyalty of consumers who ‘follow’ brands via Twitter etc.
• Societal Trends – Growth in rapidity of fads / fashions sustaining appetite for changing designs / styles across a wide range of garden products, creating opportunities to add value to core product lines.
Clearly there are a wide range of factors which are likely to underpin most sectors of the garden products market and provide growth in the near to
medium term.
Price sensitivity continues to represent a key threat to market performance in 2018, particularly in the lower-mid value market where imported products
represent a significant proportion of the industry. Rising consumer expectations of quality coupled with a lack of willingness to accept price rises continues to
represent a key issue for the overall garden products market in 2018. However, there are growing indications of a willingness by some customer
segments to increase their budgets for garden leisure products which offer
enhanced perceived added value and differentiation.
Longer-term prospects for the market remain positive with the overall market set to rise to £5.7 billion by year-end December 2022, reflecting growth of 14%
in the next 4 years or an average of just under 3.5% per annum.
2.2.2 Garden Products Market Size 2012-2022–Constant Prices
The following chart illustrates the performance of the market value with
consumer price index inflation stripped out since 2012, with forecasts to 2022:-
Figure 2: Garden Products Market – UK 2012 – 2022 Constant Prices
3900
4000
4100
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700
4800
4900
Sales Value £M
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10% Change
Value £M% Change
Value £M 4261 4235.2 4308.1 4436.8 4521.1 4558.1 4580.3 4635.2 4693.3 4768.7 4851.6
% Change -2.5 -0.6 1.7 3 1.9 0.8 0.5 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.7
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
Source: MTW Research / Trade Estimates
In ‘real terms’, the garden products market is estimated to have increased by
around 8% since 2012, reflecting positive performance for the market over the last 6 years. Since 2014, growth has markedly improved with 2015 inflation at
0% offering a much needed boost for the market in constant price terms.
Inflation has continued to rise in more recent years and currently stands at around 2.5%, effectively reducing overall market growth to around 0.5% at
present. However, the Bank of England interest rate rise to 0.75% in August 2018 should result in domestic inflation coming under control in the near term,
providing a further boost to real term growth for the market.
Medium to longer term prospects are for sales to continue to rise above the overall rate of inflation with the consumer price index peaking in late 2018 at
around 2.5%. From 2019 onwards, our expectations are that inflation is likely to decline steadily as Sterling regains some lost ground and eases pressure on
import prices to some extent, particularly given the growing likelihood of a
Brexit ‘transitional phase’ to December 2020 which could be extended even further. By 2022 our forecasts are for the market to have grown by around 6%
in real terms, reflecting a reasonably positive forecast against a background of somewhat uncertain macro-economic conditions.
2.2.3 Garden Products Product Mix 2018
The share accounted for by each of the key sectors within the UK garden products market in 2018 is illustrated in the following chart:- (Figures changed
for sample)
Figure 3: Share by Product in Garden Products Market 2018
Tools & Garden
Equipment, 18
Gdn Timber & Hard
Landscaping, 17.5
Water Mgmnt & Gdn Dec, 9.8
Gdn Care &
Chemicals, 10
Gdn Furniture &
BBQs, 10 Horti / Greenstock, 10
Sheds, Grnhses, Bldngs, 10
Source: MTW Research / Trade Sources
The UK garden products market comprises of a wide range of product sectors as
illustrated in the chart above.
The ‘Garden Leisure’ sector which includes furniture and barbecues accounts for the largest proportion of the garden products market in 2018 at just over 19%
and a value of just over £966 million at retail selling prices. This sector includes a wide range of products across the full spectrum of price points including
chairs, tables, outdoor heating, barbecues and other cooking appliances designed for domestic garden applications.
Price competition and the growing threat of imports has continued to represent
a key challenge for the UK Garden Leisure market in recent years, with this trend characterising the market in 2018. As a result, the sector has lost some
share of the overall Garden Products market in recent years, though overall growth remains positive.
The second largest sector within the garden products industry is the tools and equipment market which accounts for 18% of the market in 2018 reflecting a
value of some £906 million.
The garden timber & hard landscaping sector includes fencing, decking, garden timber, paving, aggregates and other materials and represents 17.5% of the
market with an estimated value of some £881 million in 2018.
The horticultural sector is currently estimated to account for around 13.4% of all garden products sales in 2018, reflecting a current value of just under £675
million at retail selling prices.
Garden care and chemicals products have benefited from the changing demographics in the UK consumer garden products market in recent years, with
purchasers increasingly aware of the wide choice and appropriateness for given
tasks. Sales of garden care and chemicals are estimated to reach just under
£464 million to year end December 2018, reflecting just over 14% of the total garden products market.
Water management and garden decoration sales are estimated to account for
around 10% of the market in 2018, with sales reaching £493 million at retail selling prices.
2.2.4 Garden Products Future Trends & Forecasts to 2022
Prospects for the UK Garden Products Market are generally positive in terms of
value growth, though volume demand growth may slow to some extent in the medium term. The following chart illustrates our forecasts of the future
performance of the UK Garden Products Market to 2022:-
Figure 4: Garden Products Market Forecasts – UK 2018 – 2022 By Value £m
4600
4800
5000
5200
5400
5600
5800
Sales Value £M
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
% Change
Value £M% Change
Value £M 5034 5195 5351 5528 5718
% Change 3 3.2 3 3.3 3.4
2018e 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
Source: MTW Research / Trade Estimates
The market is expected to exhibit further growth in 2019 as consumer spending remains reasonably robust, despite sustained pressure on consumer budgets.
The industry continues to polarise into higher value, differentiated products and lower value products, with customer segments also becoming more distinct.
The above is based on the assumption of a ‘Brexit transition phase’ which is likely to underpin reasonable stability for the UK economy to the end of 2020.
This stability should offer sustained stimulus for growth across most sectors, though market performance is expected to weaken in Q3/4 2020 in response to
concerns relating to the end of the Brexit transition phase. Our forecasts are for a reasonably stable transfer from the EU with a very ‘soft Brexit’ increasingly
the most likely scenario – perhaps even with an extended transition phase. The EU is likely to put forward a request for an extension of 6 months toward the
end of the Brexit negotiations, with the UK requesting a further 2 year extension
to 2023.
There are also a number of other key market influencers which should underpin growth for the garden products market through to 2022, including:-
� Sustained economic growth - Brexit transitional phase(s) likely to prevent any decline in GDP. Brexit transitional phase appears increasingly likely to be extended to 2023.
� Rising housebuilding & housemoving activity – stimulating new & replacement demand for garden products
� Increasingly Savvy Consumers – Using the Internet to research information & prices, and becoming increasingly experienced offering ‘trading up’ opportunities.
� Low unemployment – whilst unemployment may rise slightly in the near term, overall levels remain generally low
� Rising Population – sustained growth of 100,000-200,000 per annum generating organic volume growth.
� Polarisation of Market – Growing number of experienced / knowledgeable customers willing to increase their budgets for differentiated products.
� Government focus on UK SME manufacturing - boosting higher value UK made garden products sector.
� Growth in First Time Buyers – Rising to around 300,000 per year.
� Government policies to enhance UK PLC competitiveness – ie lowering corporation tax etc.
� Social media / Internet - increasing fad / fashion cycles impacting on garden design trends – e.g colours, materials, finishes etc.
� Shift toward smaller gardens in new build properties – requiring products which offer enhanced space saving / multi-functional design etc.
� Lower value of Sterling making domestically produced products more attractively priced for retailers & consumers, though imports will continue to dominate.
� Weather patterns – increasing prevalence of wet Spring / dry Summers may shift / elongate selling season for some product sectors.
� Increasingly sophisticated consumer – using Internet to research products, price comparison etc.
� Shift in focus by DIY multiples ‘back to basics’, leaving higher value market position more open for Garden Centres who are able to offer higher levels of service.
� Growing focus on differentiation of service to enhance perceived added value of core product – e.g. pre & post sales support to customer, delivery, stock availability, wide choice of products etc., boosting opportunities for growth in higher value sector.
� Market Development – Manufacturers & retailers are increasingly segmenting customer target groups and developing increasingly sophisticated marketing strategies in order to grow sales.
� Rising Use of Garden –UK consumers have invested significantly in their gardens in recent years in terms of hard and soft landscaping, furniture, barbecues, lighting etc and this is underpinning a rise in the frequency of use of the garden for entertaining, play and recreation.
� Innovation – the UK is likely to experience a slow but fundamental shift toward a larger manufacturing base in the longer term as a result of Brexit, with imports possibly losing share as UK manufacturing grows in significance in the higher value end of the market – boosting value growth opportunities as higher value new products and brands are introduced to the market.
� Growth in Number of Gardens – Whilst the number of new build properties in the UK have a garden, the ratio remains at just under 90%. With new build activity exhibiting healthy growth, this should sustain volume demand in the medium to longer term.
� Product Development – Adding value through the differentiation of products, features and benefits through innovation and development by a large number of manufacturers should ensure that opportunities for value growth are increased.
� Market Segmentation – Manufacturers and distributors are using more sophisticated marketing tactics in terms of identifying and marketing to key customer groups. For example, whilst older, more affluent home owners typically spend more on average on garden products, their needs are significantly different to younger consumers living in new build properties with smaller gardens.
� Market Penetration – The scope for further penetration of existing markets is primarily derived from the ‘trading-up’ of lower value products to higher value garden equipment. For example, first time buyers will typically purchase a lower value item before trading up 2-3 years later. With an estimated 300,000 first time buyers in 2018 the current ‘trading up’ potential is considered significant though this remains below the peak of 600,000 in the early 2000s.
� Changing Use of Garden – In 2018 the garden is more frequently used as an extension of the home, with outdoor dining areas and sofa style furniture likely to remain popular for the medium to longer term.
� Market Diversification – A well established manufacturing base means that manufacturers of garden products are able to diversify into new markets with new products which offer synergies in terms of manufacturing and core competences, providing a more robust, solid foundation for the garden products market in the longer term.
� Organic Growth – Private and public sector housebuilding is set to rise in the medium term, boosting the number of gardens and domestic outside spaces suitable for garden products.
The above represent some of the wider issues which should continue to underpin demand growth for the garden products market in the medium to
longer term. By 2022, our forecasts are for the total garden products market to reach a value of some £5.7 billion, reflecting an increase of some 14% above
the current 2018 market value.
3. UK GARDEN LEISURE MARKET 2018-2022
3.1 GARDEN FURNITURE & BARBECUES MARKET 2012-2022
The UK Garden Leisure market is defined as consisting of the following key product sectors:-
� Garden Furniture – of all materials including wood, resin, metal, glass, cloth etc
� Barbecues & Outdoor Appliances – Gas, Electric, Charcoal, Outdoor Cooking Appliances (e.g Pizza ovens, Griddles, Braziers etc including accessories & fuel
The market is measured at retail selling prices, excluding any VAT, import taxes or charges or any delivery / installation charges.
The Garden Leisure market is estimated to be worth £568 million in 2018 as
illustrated in the following chart:-
Figure 5: Garden Leisure Market – UK 2012 – 2022 By Value £m
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Sales Value £M
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
% Change
Value £M% Change
Value £M 839.4 856.2 879.3 900.9 922.3 943.4 966.5 997.4 1027.4 1061.4 1097.9
% Change 2 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.5 3.2 3 3.3 3.4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
Source: MTW Research / Trade Estimates
The market has experienced average growth rates of 2.5% during the last 6
years with the market experiencing relatively stable rates of performance in recent years as illustrated above.
Trade sources indicate that the particularly clement weather of Summer 2018
provided an extended period to the selling season, following a particularly wet and cold Spring which saw a slow 2018 start to the year in terms of sales.
The market has increased by some 15% since 2012, reflecting modest growth in
a sector which has continued to benefit from organic volume demand and
product development though sales growth has been dampened by sustained
pricing pressure and lower value imports.
Given healthy growth in the UK population, housebuilding and house moving, market demand for furniture and barbecues is likely to continue to rise, with
product innovation and market development also offering additional value growth. As such, our forecasts are for a relatively healthy rate of growth likely
in the medium to longer term, despite the possibility of a slight slowdown in
consumer confidence in the near term due to Brexit uncertainties.
Given the more clement weather in 2017 and 2018, sources point to the growing trend in ‘outside kitchens’, rather than simply barbecues. This
typically involves the installation of a higher value cooking appliance on a permanent or semi-permanent basis, coupled with dedicated food preparation
surfaces on a hard standing area.
This trend toward setting aside a specific area of the garden for cooking is likely to continue in the medium to longer term, though is likely to be limited to the
higher value sector of the market where consumers have larger gardens and higher disposable income levels. Nevertheless, with sources indicating that an
‘outdoor kitchen’ is increasingly being employed as a ‘status symbol’ and can even add value to a home, this driver of the market is set to remain a key
characteristic in the longer term.
This key market characteristic has boosted both the outdoor cooking appliance
market and the higher value garden furniture market, where semi-permanent furniture is often specified in conjunction with the barbecue / cooking appliance.
The return and rise in popularity of garden design television programmes more recently has also boosted this trend toward ‘zoning’ the garden into separate
distinct areas such as cooking, dining, entertaining etc.
There are a number of key market influences and trends which have had a positive effect on the garden leisure market in recent years and these are likely
to sustain market growth in the medium to longer term, including:-
� Garden furniture accounts for around 70% of the market in 2018 and sales have offered good value growth opportunities in recent years as product development and market segmentation has offered value growth opportunities.
� Clement weather has extended selling season for most products.
� Rising levels of personal disposable incomes and consumer confidence.
� Low levels of unemployment, boosting overall target market size.
� UK macro-economic conditions healthy, boosting R&D and business confidence, particularly for UK manufacturing.
� Rising housebuilding activity and house-moving levels, driving volume demand.
� Growth in garden entertaining stimulating higher volume demand for garden furniture.
� Trading-up’ by consumers in furniture sector from resin and lower value products purchased in recent years to higher value wood / metal products.
� Changing demographic of UK population profile toward older, more affluent consumers.
� Growth in the size of patios as consumers seek lower maintenance gardens designed more for leisure, rather than gardening.
� Use of the garden as an ‘outside room’ or extension of the house increasing time spent in the garden and therefore generating demand for more comfortable furniture.
� Smaller gardens and reduced space available for garden furniture in newer build properties has resulted in product development opportunities for space saving designs and products.
� Product development focusing on products which offer portability & space saving – e.g suitable for use on balconies or small areas, declining average size of decks.
� Emphasis on tactile qualities of wood furniture, as well as material, style, design and eco credentials offering enhanced value added opportunities.
� Environmental considerations no longer simply linked to sustainable material sourcing, but whole carbon footprint of furniture, boosting demand for locally and sustainably sourced products.
� Semi-permanent outdoor cooking and furniture areas in the garden are growing in popularity.
� Non portable BBQs account for around 40% of the market in 2018 and sales have offered good value growth opportunities in recent years.
� Product development – inclusion of added value features such as easy cleaning, efficient fuel usage, storage compartments and serving shelves, portability, complementary accessories, ease of use, controllable heat, even cooking, style and design etc.
� Barbecue manufacturers are focusing on developing products suited for use in specific seasons. For example, larger units in the winter and smaller, more portable units in the summer.
� Manufacturers now offer a wider range of accessories such as chimney starters, charcoal holders, vegetable basket, audible thermometers, handles, tables, hobs on gas models, implements, weather covers.
� Alternative products also growing in popularity, such as fire pits, chimineas, slow roast ovens for use outside, pizza ovens, grills etc.
� Growing emphasis on style and design, with black and sleek lines growing in popularity, alongside more traditional stainless steel options.
� More adventurous consumers undertaking more complex outdoor cooking recipes requiring larger and more sophisticated appliances etc.
� Increasing focus from consumers on using gardens as ‘outdoor living space’, rather than simply used for occasional relaxation, entertaining etc.
The following chart illustrates our estimates of the share by key product sector
within the domestic garden furniture and barbecues market in 2018:- (Figures changed for sample)
Figure 6: Garden Furniture & Barbecues Market - Share by Product 2018
Barbecues & Fuel,
10.0
Garden Furniture,
10.0
Source: MTW Research / Trade Sources
As illustrated, in 2017 the garden furniture market is currently estimated to account for around xx% of the furniture and barbecues market, reflecting a
market value of around £xxx million at retail selling prices.
The barbecues and fuels market is currently estimated to be worth around £xxmillion, reflecting just under xx% of the market in 2018.
3.2 MARKET TRENDS – KEY MARKET FORCES ON GARDEN LEISURE MARKET
3.2.1 PEST Analysis – Key Market Forces on Garden Leisure Trends 2012-2022
There are a large number of macro market issues and trends which directly or
indirectly influence the UK Garden Leisure market. These issues typically relate to political, legal, economic, environmental, social and technological factors.
The following diagram provides a brief overview of some of these key issues which are currently impacting the market at present and those which may
stimulate or dampen market growth in the future:-
Figure 7: PEST Analysis for UK Garden Barbecues & Furniture Market in 2018
Source: MTW Research Strategic Review 2018
Whilst the above diagram is by no means exhaustive, it provides an illustration of some of the key issues impacting the market at present and in the future.
UK GARDEN FURNITURE &
BARBECUES MARKET
POLITICAL
LEGAL
ECONOMIC
ENVIRONMENT
SOCIAL
TECHNOLOGICAL
3.2.2 Number of UK Gardens 2012-2022
One of the key influencers on this market is the number of UK gardens as this
directly influences volume demand for a large number of products.
The following chart illustrates the number of UK homes in the UK compared with the number of private gardens on an annual basis since 2012:-
3.3 GARDEN LEISURE SWOT – Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats
The following table identifies some of the key strengths & weaknesses evident in the
overall Garden Furniture & Barbecues Market at present:-
Figure 24: Key Strengths & Weaknesses in the Garden Furniture & Barbecues Market 2018-2022
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES
• Inherent higher
•
• Just over
•
Source: MTW Research Strategic Review 2018
Key opportunities and threats evident in the market at present include:-
Figure 25: Key Opportunities & Threats in the Garden Products Market 2018-2022
OPPORTUNITIES THREATS
• •Population •• Sustained
Source: MTW Research Strategic Review 2018
3.4 IMPORTS & EXPORTS OF GARDEN FURNITURE & BARBECUES 2012-2022
In recent years the UK garden leisure market has been dominated by a high
level of lower cost imports. Trade sources identify this issue as a key inhibitor of growth within the low-mid market sectors in 2018 – particularly for garden
furniture. This threat of imports to value growth is set to continue represent a key market characteristic in the medium to longer term.
The following chart illustrates our estimates of the level of imports of garden
furniture and barbecues since 2012 and forecasts to 2022 in value terms:-
4. GARDEN FURNITURE MARKET
4.1 Garden Furniture Market Size Current Prices 2012-2022
The performance of the UK garden furniture market is illustrated below at retail selling prices in current price terms:-
Figure 32: Garden Furniture Market –2012–2022 Current Prices £m
Source: MTW Research / Trade Estimates
Sales of garden furniture products are currently valued at just under £xxx million in 2018, reflecting an xxxxxx of xxx% to December 2018 and xxxxx of
£xxx million.
Since 2012, sales of garden furniture products have increased by xxx%, xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx market and average annual xxxxx of around xx% per annum
considering the relative maturity of the market.
The market has increasingly polarised in terms of value / quality in recent years and this continues in 2018, though there is an increasing trend toward
consumers specifying higher quality garden furniture. This has supported sales growth in the higher value oriented retail channels more recently, such as
garden centres, specialist retailers etc whilst pricing pressure has continued to increase amongst retailers positioned in the lower value end of the market such
as internet retailers, DIY retailers, supermarkets etc.
The market is set to continue to grow at, or slightly above current growth levels
for the near to medium term, with improving GDP and rising housing stock and population trends continuing to underpin value growth, alongside rising demand
for higher value products from a growing proportion of UK consumers.
Trade sources indicate that there is a clear trend toward a rising demand for higher priced garden furniture which offer enhanced features such as:-
� Aesthetic appeal – e.g ‘fits’ with garden design
� Durability – will last several seasons without fading / deteriorating etc
� Fashionable – reflects current garden design trends
� Functional – is comfortable & is suitable for task designed for.
� Multi-purpose – users demanding more uses from furniture, e.g. homeworking, relaxing, entertaining, dining etc.
� Facilitates longer use – increasingly consumers are spending more time relaxing in their gardens.
� Suitability for target market – e.g. more contemporary designs for younger consumers, whilst older, experienced consumers also focus on other issues such as comfort, durability etc.
� Application specific – e.g. furniture for temporary use on decking (ie can be folded etc); larger, heavier semi permanent furniture installations on patios; ‘2nd patio’ ownership increasing.
� Material preference – increasing preference for resin rattan & metal (cast aluminium) in mid-market sector whilst wood is popular in higher value market.
� Availability – take home / immediate delivery options
� Exclusivity – consumers increasingly are seeking ‘unique’ furniture
� Modular options – ‘add-on’ features to improve functionality / versatility are increasing in popularity.
� Space saving – portability, space saving, multi-purpose furniture particularly popular with younger consumers with more space saving demands.
� Pre-sales advice – more experienced consumers are requiring greater levels of pre-sales advice and service.
� Post sales support – Consumers increasingly need to be satisfied they will receive good post sales support – e.g. return to base warranty etc.
� Larger options – consumers increasingly seeking semi-permanent installations with larger furniture and removable cushions / upholstery etc.
Growth in the number of
At A Glance - Key Financial Indicators
£0.00
£0.50
£1.00
£1.50
£2.00
£2.50
Year1 Year2 Year3
Fixed Assets Current Assets Net Worth
4.8 Garden Furniture Suppliers Financials & Profiles
The following provides a brief overview and 3 years financials for UK suppliers of garden furniture. It
should be noted that whilst we endeavour to include as many key suppliers as possible, the inclusion
or otherwise does not necessarily indicate a company’s significance or otherwise in the market:-
Sample. Ltd - Company Overview & ‘At a Glance’
Sample Address Address Berkshire Address Tel: Sample
Sample. Ltd is a private limited company, incorporated on 24th July 2012. The company’s main activities are recorded by Companies House as “Garden Product Suppliers” In 2018, the company has an estimated 6 employees. To year end December 2017, Sample. Ltd is estimated to have achieved a turnover of around £6.0 million. Pre-tax profit for the same period is estimated at around £0.20 million. The following table briefly provides a top line overview on Sample. Ltd:-
Company Name Sample. Ltd
Brief Description of Activities Garden Product Suppliers
Parent Company
Ultimate Holding Company
Estimated Number of Employees 6
Senior Decision Maker / Director Sample
The following table illustrates the company’s key performance indicators for the last 3 years:-
Sample Ltd - 3 Year Financials to Year End 30-Sep-17
Key Indicator £M Year End 30-Sep-15 (Year1) £M
Year End 30-Sep-16 (Year2) £M
Year End 30-Sep-17 (Year3) £M
Fixed Assets £0.01 £0.01 £0.01
Current Assets £1.55 £1.43 £2.21
Current Liabilities £1.11 £0.5 £1.4
Long Term Liabilities £1.21 £1.92 £1.98
Net Worth £0.75 £0.98 £1.17
Working Capital £0.45 £0.93 £0.81
Profit per Employee - - -
Sales per Employee - - -
5. OUTDOOR COOKING, HEATING & BARBECUES MARKET
5.1 Outdoor Cooking, Heating & Barbecue Market Size 2012-2022
The outdoor cooking appliances and barbecues market is defined as consisting of the following key product sectors:-
� Barbecues of all fuel types – including:-
�Gas, charcoal, electric, solid fuel etc.
�Without legs / stand – e.g. table top, portable & ‘hibachi’ style
�Freestanding with legs, stand, wheels trolley styles
�Kettle / Kamado / Drum barbecues
�DIY / self build barbecues, built in barbecues (inc natural gas)
(excluding disposable barbecues)
� Outdoor Cooking / Heating Appliances – including:-
�Firebowl / Wood Grill
�Smokers
�Infrared Grill
�Pizza ovens
�Patio Heaters / Chimineas
� Accessories – including:-
�Covers
�Rotisserie / griddle / grill / grate / roaster / pizza stone / sandwich iron / steamer
�Barbecue tools
�Fuel – LPG, charcoal, solid fuel etc
Prices are measured at retail selling prices, excluding VAT and any import or other duties and delivery costs.
The performance of the UK outdoor cooking & barbecues market is illustrated
below at retail selling prices in current price terms:-
Figure 72: Outdoor Cooking, Heating & Barbecues Market –2012–2022 Current Prices £m
Source: MTW Research / Trade Estimates
Sales of outdoor cooking appliances account for around xx% of the garden
leisure market in 2018, with the sector having xxxx share in recent years as a result of xxxxxxxxxxxxxx by consumers.
In 2018 the sector is valued at just over £xxx million at retail selling prices,
reflecting an xxxxxxxxxx of just under x% since 2017. The market continues to xxxxxxxxxx from xxxxxxxxxx activity xxxxxxx in the garden xxxxxxxxxxxx
sector, with xxxxxxxxxx also supporting xxxxxxxxxx end of the market.
Since 2012, sales of outdoor cooking appliances have xxxxxxx by some xx%,
reflecting a sector which has cxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx recent years. A renewed interest from consumers in more sophisticated cooking outside, coupled with
particularly clement weather in the last couple of years has also underpinned healthy volume and value growth.
Increasing use of the garden as an extension of the home is continuing to
generate additional sales for this market, with a growing focus on consumers’ establishing more specific ‘zones’ in the garden for cooking, dining, relaxing /
entertaining etc. The growth in semi-permanent cooking / dining areas has also underpinned value growth and demand for higher value cooking appliances.
Sales to 2022 are forecast to continue to benefit from these trends, supported
by rising volume demand from organic population and household growth. In
addition, ongoing product development will continue to underpin healthy performance in the higher value sector of the market. Whilst pricing pressure
will continue to impact the lower value sector of the market, our forecasts are for average annual growth of just under 4% over the next 4 years in current
price terms.
By 2022, our forecasts are for this sector to reach a value of just under £354 million, reflecting an increase of 15% in the next 4 years.
5.2 Outdoor Cooking, Heating & Barbecue Sales at Constant Prices 2012-2022
The performance of the UK outdoor cooking & barbecues market is illustrated below at retail selling prices at constant 2012 prices:-