Robert I. NigmatulinShirshov Institute of OceanologyRussian Academy of Sciences

G7 DIALOG FORUMLEOPOLDINA, National Academie der

Wissenschafter29 April 2015, Allianz Forum, Berlin

nigmar@ocean.ru

FUTURE of the OCEAN for HUMANITY

Laurentius Blumentrost (1692-1755) The first President of Russian Academy of Sciences

from 1725 to 1733

OCEAN (72% of the Earth’s Surface)

• CLIMATE (MOcean = 300 MAtmosphere)• ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS• FOOD and MEDICINE• MINERAL RESOURCES• CATASTROPHES• GEOPOLITICS• MARINE TRANSPORT• NAVY

OCEANOLOGY:• Physics and Math (Fluid dynamics,

Thermodynamics, Heat and Mass Transfer, Acoustics)

• Biology• Chemistry• Geology• Engineering

The Annual Gross Marine Product totals

$2.5 Trillion/year

The OCEAN is the world’s 7-th largest economy

The outer limit of legal continental shelf with all the criteriaof the 1982 Convention

The Federal Subsoil Resources Management Agency (ROSNEDRA) The State Research Navigation and Hydrographic Institute,

Open Joint Stock Company (“GNINGI”, OJSC)

6

•Geophysics, Seismic•Mechanics

Barents Sea

Kara Sea

ARCTIC OCEAN

Biology-Physics

Wind

Mass mortality of Rapana venosa

as a result of Predator ‐ Prey Interaction

(Black Sea beachbetween Tuapse and Sochi)

Year 1

• Growth of global temperature of air by0.75C for the last 100 years0,5C after 1975

• Rise of sea level by3 mm/year during last 10‐15 year

• Arctic Ice shortening 2 times for the last 40 years

• Increase of СО2 concentration is 30% for the last50 years

Global warming

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Годы

S, тыс.км2

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 ГОДЫ

Temperature, C       14.5

14,0

13,5

1850 1900 1950 2000 2029Год

100

0

-100

100

300

200

CO2, ppm

Arctic and Antarctic Institute

0

Earth

Earth 1

1 1dN

i i

iS

T T s T sS N

C,T

See Level, mm

Arctic See Ice Extent

Global Temperature

• Growth of global temperature of air by0.75C for the last 100 years0,5C after 1975

• Rise of sea level by3 mm/year during last 10‐15 year

• Arctic Ice shortening 2 times for the last 40 years

• Increase of СО2 concentration is 30% for the last50 years

Global warming

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Годы

S, тыс.км2

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 ГОДЫ

Temperature, C       14.5

14,0

13,5

1850 1900 1950 2000 2029Год

100

0

-100

100

300

200

CO2, ppm

Arctic and Antarctic Institute

0

C,T

See Level, mm

Arctic See Ice Extent

Global Temperature

ANTROPOGENEC CONCEPTION of the GLOBAL WARMING

Growth of СО2 concentration Small Growth of Т(surface)

Growth of Н2О Concentration

Growth of Т(surface)

Natural Cycles(Sun Radiation, Inertia of thermal Field in Ocean,

Ellipticity of the Earth’s orbit,Planets Impact on the Earth’s orbit, etc)

Central Russia (Moscow), Spring

0,8

0,4

0

0,4

0,8

0,20

0,2

West Europe, Spring

1891 2014

1891 2014

Drama of the Global Warming: Thermodynamically negligible increase of the Global Temperature

Т 1 K << 300 Kmay lead to essential change:

• regional climate

• precipitation;

• kinetic energy of atmosphere (hurricanes, tornados, freak waves, etc);

• biosphere (viruses, bacteria, etc.)

Some data shows:

NO INCREASE of           for the last 15 years,

though is growing 

T

2COc

Russian Academy of SciencesP.P. Shirshov Institute

of Oceanology

T, C

2011 2013

Concentration of СО2 – Global Temperature of the Atmosphere

CO2 is rising but Global temperature is falling

0.039

0,038

0.037

c(CO2), %

Mexican Gulf, Cuba, USA

1. Сloudiness

Cloud and Change of the Weather

Necessary Condition for the future Humanity’s Prosperity and Life on all Earth is

Healthy Ocean

But this Condition isnot Sufficient

Pythagoras: The Humanity is threatened by three points:

1. Materialism of Priests2. Ignorance of Scientists3. Fury (quasi-religious frenzy) of Democrats4. …..

4. IDIOTS occupying high-ranking and powerful positions

Best wishes to Leopoldina Academy from

Russian Academy of Sciences  THANK YOU