Forest ecosystems:Forest ecosystems: forecasting, modeling forecasting, modeling and vulnerabilityand vulnerability

Roman COROBOVRoman COROBOV

Republic of MoldovaRepublic of Moldova

Principal steps in the assessment of Principal steps in the assessment of ecosystem sensitivity to climate changeecosystem sensitivity to climate change

Historical aspect and current state

Construction of ecology-phytocoenotic rows

Assessment of stability and sensitivity

Development of future bioclimate scenarios

Ecosystem transformation in new climate

Forming the Moldova’s Forming the Moldova’s Natural EcosystemsNatural Ecosystems

West-European sea climate

East-European

continental climate

Mediterranean

climate

Balti steppe

Budjac steppe

Mediterranean forest zone

Subtropical steppe Xerophilic oak forest

European-Asia

Steppe Zone

Mid-European wide-leaf

zone

Mid-European wide-leave forests

Forest areas:Forest areas:

Cuciurganscii liman

r.Camenca

r.Iagorlic

lac. Beleu

r .Br a tu l in c a

Cuciurganscii liman

r.Camenca

r.Iagorlic

lac. Beleu

r .Br a tu l in c a

Southern forests Southern forests

Northern forestNorthern forest

Codru Codru

Beech forestsBeech forests

Oak-hornbeamOak-hornbeam

Step 1. Step 1. Natural forests - historical aspectNatural forests - historical aspect

Oaks occupy about half of all forest

territory

Most forests were cut before the 1850s, with the lowest

forest cover in 1918-1925.At present, forests occupy only about 9-

10% of Moldova territory

1848 1861 1875 1893 1914 1918 1925 1965 1985 1997

Dynamic of forest fundDynamic of forest fund

Изменение лесных площадей Quercus robur и Q. petraeae

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1925 1962 1985 1997

Изменение лесных площадей Fagus sylvatica

0

1

2

3

1925 1965 1985 1997

Изменение лесных площадей Fraxinus excelsior

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1925 1965 1985 1997

Изменение площади лесов Carpinus betulus

0

5

10

15

20

25

1925 1965 1985 1997

Изменение площади лесов интродуцентов

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1925 1965 1985 1997

In the 20th century some In the 20th century some increase of oak forests and increase of oak forests and

maximal decrease of beech ones maximal decrease of beech ones took place, along with significant took place, along with significant increase of introducents share. increase of introducents share.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1925 1962 1985 1997

Changes in forest composition Changes in forest composition (1925-(1925-20002000))

Step 2: Step 2: Development of ecological rows as the Development of ecological rows as the model of natural ecosystems change in new model of natural ecosystems change in new

climatic conditionsclimatic conditions

Step 2: Step 2: Development of ecological rows as the Development of ecological rows as the model of natural ecosystems change in new model of natural ecosystems change in new

climatic conditionsclimatic conditions

Essence of the method:Essence of the method:

Today’s temporal and spatial transition from Today’s temporal and spatial transition from ones plant types to the others is used as an ones plant types to the others is used as an objective criterion for assessment of the objective criterion for assessment of the directions and parameters of natural ecosystem directions and parameters of natural ecosystem qualitative changes in new climate qualitative changes in new climate

Essence of the method:Essence of the method:

Today’s temporal and spatial transition from Today’s temporal and spatial transition from ones plant types to the others is used as an ones plant types to the others is used as an objective criterion for assessment of the objective criterion for assessment of the directions and parameters of natural ecosystem directions and parameters of natural ecosystem qualitative changes in new climate qualitative changes in new climate

Ecological row of meadow ecosystemsEcological row of meadow ecosystems

When runoff decreases

When runoff increases

Grass marsh

Bottomland meadow

Fresh and dry meadow

Percentage of Moldova wetlands with different levels of ground water

(m)

Percentage of Moldova wetlands with different levels of ground water

(m)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

> 2,0 m

1,5 - 2,0 m

1,0 - 1,5 m

0,0 - 1,0 mG

rou

nd

wat

er l

evel

, m

Ecological row of Ecological row of flood plain flood plain forest community forest community depending on humidity conditionsdepending on humidity conditions

Increase of aridity

Ash-willowstand

(Saliceta cinereae)

Ash-willowstand

(Saliceta cinereae)

White-willow stand

(Saliceta albae)

White-willow stand

(Saliceta albae)

White poplar stand

(Populeta albae)

White poplar stand

(Populeta albae)

English oakforest

(Querceta roboris)

English oakforest

(Querceta roboris)

Salicetum phragmitosum

(australis)

Salicetum phragmitosum

(australis)

S. typhosum (latifoliae)

S. typhosum (latifoliae)

S. thelipteridosum (palustris)

S. thelipteridosum (palustris)

S. caricosum (acutiformis)

S. caricosum (acutiformis)

Salicetum phragmitosum

(australis)

Salicetum phragmitosum

(australis)

S. typhosum (angustifoliae)S. typhosum

(angustifoliae)

S. caricosum (ripariae)

S. caricosum (ripariae)

S. rubosum (caesii)S. rubosum (caesii)

S. elytrigosum (repentis)

S. elytrigosum (repentis)

Populetum rubosum (caesi)

Populetum rubosum (caesi)

P. aegopodiosum (podagrariae)

P. aegopodiosum (podagrariae)

P. rubosum (caesii)P. rubosum (caesii)

P. convollariosum (majalis)

P. convollariosum (majalis)

Quercetum aegopodiosum (podagrariae)

Quercetum aegopodiosum (podagrariae)

Q. sambucosum (nigrae)

Q. sambucosum (nigrae)

Q, corylosum (avelanae)

Q, corylosum (avelanae)

Q. urticosum (dioicae)

Q. urticosum (dioicae)

Forest typeForest typeA

ssocia

tion

sA

ssocia

tion

s

Ecological rangeEcological range

EdificatorsEdificatorsPrecipitationPrecipitation Annual temperatureAnnual temperature

SSuboptimumuboptimum OptimumOptimum LLimitimit SSuboptimuboptimumum

OOptimuptimumm

LLimitimit

Fagus sFagus syylvaticalvatica 600600; 1300; 1300 700-1200700-1200 500; 500; 14001400

+4; +10+4; +10 +6 - +6 - ++99 +3+3

Carpinus betulusCarpinus betulus 500; 800500; 800 600-700600-700 400; 900400; 900 +6; +11+6; +11 +8 - +8 - ++1010

+5+5

Quercus petraeaQuercus petraea 500; 900500; 900 600-800600-800 1000; 1000; 11001100

+6;+7;+6;+7;++1111

+8 - +8 - ++1010

+5+5

Quercus roburQuercus robur 350-560350-560 600-800600-800 900900 +7+7 +8 -+8 -++1010

+6+6

Quercus pubescensQuercus pubescens 450450 500-650500-650 700700 +9 - +9 - ++1111 -- +8+8

Co-edificatorsCo-edificatorsTilia tomentosaTilia tomentosa 500500 550-600550-600 400400 +8.5+8.5 +9 - +9 -

++1111+8+8

Fraxinus excelsiorFraxinus excelsior 450;800;9450;800;90000

500-700500-700 400; 400; 10001000

+6;+7;+6;+7;++1111

+8 - +8 - ++1010

+5+5

Beula pendulaBeula pendula 600; 1200600; 1200 700-1100700-1100 500; 500; 13001300

+3; +4+3; +4 +5 - +5 - ++88 +2;-10;-+2;-10;-1111

Ulmus carpinifoliaUlmus carpinifolia 400; 600400; 600 450-550450-550 700700 +7+7 +8 - +8 - ++1010

+11+11

Acer pseudoplatanusAcer pseudoplatanus 700700 800-1100800-1100 500;600;500;600;12001200

+4;+8;+9+4;+8;+9 +5 -+5 -++-7-7 +10+10

In baseline climate outside of optimum conditions are : Quercus pubescens - by temperature, Fagus sylvatica - by humidity. Quercus robur has most wide ecological amplitude by humidity factor.

Step 3:Step 3: Assessment of forest stability & sensitivityAssessment of forest stability & sensitivity by ecological demands of dominant species to by ecological demands of dominant species to

temperature and precipitationtemperature and precipitation

Disposition of key forest species in their areaDisposition of key forest species in their area

Fagus sylvatica Carpinus betulus Quercus petraeaQuercus robur Quercus pubescens

Acer pseudoplatanusSorbus torminalisHedera helix Acer pseudoplatanus

Tilia tomentosaTilia platyphyllosMalus sylvestrisPyrus pyresterUlmus carpinifolia

Fraxinus excelsiorAcer campestrisAcer tataricaViburnum lantanaCerasus aviumTilia cordata

Sorbus domesticaCarpinus orientalisCotinus coggygriaLigustrum vulgareRhamnus tinctoriaCrataegus pentagynaPyrus elaeagnifolia

КодрыКодрыNorthNorth SouthSouth

South-East boundary Ecological optimum

East boundary North boundary

Sensitivity of Sensitivity of forest speciesforest species to climatic to climatic changeschanges

To precipitation decreaseTo precipitation decrease

Vulnerable Sustainable

Fagus sylvaticaQuercus petreaeCarpinus betulusAcer pseudoplatanusBetula pendulaTilia tomentosaSorbus aucupariaPadus racemosa

Fagus sylvaticaQuercus petreaeCarpinus betulusAcer pseudoplatanusBetula pendulaTilia tomentosaSorbus aucupariaPadus racemosa

Quercus roburQuercus pubescensTilia cordataFraxinus excelsiorAcer tataricaCarpinus orientalisSorbus domestica

Quercus roburQuercus pubescensTilia cordataFraxinus excelsiorAcer tataricaCarpinus orientalisSorbus domestica

To temperature increaseTo temperature increase

Quercus pubescensTilia cordataSorbus domesticaSorbus torminalisCarpinus orientalisFraxinus excelsior

Quercus pubescensTilia cordataSorbus domesticaSorbus torminalisCarpinus orientalisFraxinus excelsior

Sustainable

10 % precipitation

change

6.5/7.7 % streamflow

change

10 % annual

temperature change

5.0/6.6 % streamflow

change

Statistical comparison of temperature & Statistical comparison of temperature & precipitation effects on streamflowprecipitation effects on streamflow

27 37 47 57 67

Precipitation

48,9

49,1

49,3

49,5

49,7

Wat

er le

vel

0 40 80 120 160

Precipitation

48,6

48,8

49

49,2

49,4

49,6

Wat

er le

vel

Simple and cross-correlation between monthly Simple and cross-correlation between monthly (left)(left) and and annual annual (right)(right) underground water level and precipitation underground water level and precipitation

r = 0.165

r = 0.075

lag

Cro

ssco

rrel

atio

ns

-13 -8 -3 2 7 12 17

-1

-0,6

-0,2

0,2

0,6

1

lag

Cro

ssco

rrel

atio

ns

-10 -6 -2 2 6 10

-1

-0,6

-0,2

0,2

0,6

1

Step 4-5: Step 4-5: Projections of Projections of change under different change under different

climate change scenariosclimate change scenarios

SRES A2 based climate of forest habitats

Water supply (W)Heat supply (T, Ñ)

Temperate warm (104-124)

Warm (125-144)

Very warm (145-164)

Hot (165-184)

Fresh (2.0 0.6) 2e 2f - -

Dry (0.6 -0.8) 1e 1f 1g 1h

Very dry (-0.8 -2.2) 0e 0f 0g 0h

T = T = Ti, where Ti - mean monthly air temperatures in a month with positive temperatures W = P/T – 0.0286 T, where P – precipitation sum for months with positive air temperatures

B ricen i

C a h u l

C h is in a u

2 e

1 e

1 e

B ricen i

C a h u l

C h isin a u

2 e

2 f

1 e

1 f

B ricen i

C a h u l

C h isin a u

1 f

1 g

0 f0 g

0 g

B ricen i

C a h u l

C h isin a u

0 g

0 h

2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099

1969-1990

Remaining uncertainties (IPCC, 2007):Remaining uncertainties (IPCC, 2007):

although not completely quantified, many although not completely quantified, many species can achieve rapid large-scale species can achieve rapid large-scale migrations, under a considerable range of migrations, under a considerable range of lagged responses; lagged responses;

future landscapes will differ substantially future landscapes will differ substantially from past climate change situations and from past climate change situations and landscape fragmentation creates major landscape fragmentation creates major obstacles to migration; obstacles to migration;

migration is moderated by such processes migration is moderated by such processes as competition, soil formation, land use, as competition, soil formation, land use, herbivores, pathogens;herbivores, pathogens;

tree species do not only respond to a tree species do not only respond to a changing climate by migration, but also by changing climate by migration, but also by local adaptation, including genetic one.local adaptation, including genetic one.