The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate risk

Philip KokicResearch Scientist, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems

with Steven Crimp, Rohan Nelson, Mark Howden, Peter Brown & other colleagues

Climate Adaptation Flagship

Slide 2

Overview

Australia’s exposure to climate risk

The rural livelihoods framework

Adaptive capacity measures for rural communities

Sample surveys used to construct an adaptive capacity index

Vulnerability assessment

Slide 3

The climate is variable & changing

Source: BoM

Rainfall variability Trend in total rainfall

Slide 4

20

21

22

23

24

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Year

Te

mp

era

ture

(o C)

Australian temperatures• Marked

acceleration in Australian warming trend.

• 1910-2009 +0.12oC/decade

Source: CBoM

• 1975-2009

+0.24oC/decade• 1957-2009

+0.20oC/decade

Slide 5 Lo et al., 2007. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 3506-3520.

Southern hemisphere – high pressure, spring

Trend in anti-cyclone density, 1970-2008

Slide 6

Southern hemisphere – high pressure, spring

Slide 7

Narrow disciplinary and institutional perspectives have provided few practical options for policymakers dealing with the complex and interacting goals of adaptation

– climate-centric not human-centric– identifies the problem but not solutions– pressure to reduce policy goals to fit the

scientific methods and agendas

Significant blockage in science-policy interface

The science – policy interface

Slide 8

Livelihoodplatform

Human

Social

Natural

Physical

Financial

H’hold capacity

Livelihoodstrategies

Resulting in

Natural Resourcebased activities

non -NRbased activities

Composed of

Attributes of management practices

Livelihoodsecurity

Environ’lsustainability

With effects on

Aspirations

The rural livelihoods conceptual framework

Institutions

Organisations

Social relations

Access modified by

Shocks

Trends

In the context of

Rural livelihoods context

Outcomes

…Source: Ellis (2000)

Slide 9

The Australian farm survey

Survey ~ 2000 farms annually

Broadacre and dairy industries only

Stratified rotating random sample

GREG estimates based on Agricultural census benchmarks

Basic collection

Physical

Production

Financial

Supplementary surveys

Human and social aspects

Sampled farms 2004-05

Survey regions

Source: ABARE

Slide 10

Measuring adaptive capacity

Human capitalOperator and spouse education level, health status

Social capitalLandcare member, number of business partners, internet use

Natural capitalPasture growth index, dams per hectare, remnant vegetation

Physical capitalPlant and machinery, structures, livestock

Financial capitalCapital value, total income, access to finance

Source of data:Australian farm survey, ABS survey, Natural resource surveys

Slide 11

Constructing the adaptive capacity measure

Adaptive Capacity Index

Human Social Natural Physical Financial

Hv1 Hv2 Hv3Sv1 Sv2

Nv1 Nv2 Nv3 Nv4

Pv1Sv3 Pv2

Fv1 Fv2 Fv3Using equal weightsResult using PCA loadings

Slide 12 (Nelson et al. 2010)

Human

Social

Physical

Financial

Natural Adaptive Capacity

Slide 13

Vulnerability to income risk

High Medium Low

Low High High Moderate

Medium High Moderate Low

High Moderate Low Low

Integrated vulnerability assessment

Adaptive capacity

Exposure to income risk

Slide 14

The vulnerability of rural communities

To pasture growth variability To farm income variability

No data

Least vulnerable

Moderately vulnerable

Most vulnerable

Slide 15

Summary

Rural communities have adapted and flourished in extreme climate risk

Evaluating risk solely on biophysical measures is misleading

Adaptation measures are policy relevant

Sample survey techniques can be used to measure and construct an adaptive capacity index

Vulnerability needs to be assessed against all sources of risk.

Slide 16

Contact UsPhone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176

Email: enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au

Thank you

CMIS EnvironmetricsDr. Philip KokicSenior Research Scientist

Phone: +61 2 6242 1735Email: philip.kokic@csiro.auWeb: www.csiro.au/cmis