Download - Forest ecosystems: forecasting, modeling and vulnerability Roman COROBOV Republic of Moldova
Forest ecosystems:Forest ecosystems: forecasting, modeling forecasting, modeling and vulnerabilityand vulnerability
Roman COROBOVRoman COROBOV
Republic of MoldovaRepublic of Moldova
Principal steps in the assessment of Principal steps in the assessment of ecosystem sensitivity to climate changeecosystem sensitivity to climate change
Historical aspect and current state
Construction of ecology-phytocoenotic rows
Assessment of stability and sensitivity
Development of future bioclimate scenarios
Ecosystem transformation in new climate
Forming the Moldova’s Forming the Moldova’s Natural EcosystemsNatural Ecosystems
West-European sea climate
East-European
continental climate
Mediterranean
climate
Balti steppe
Budjac steppe
Mediterranean forest zone
Subtropical steppe Xerophilic oak forest
European-Asia
Steppe Zone
Mid-European wide-leaf
zone
Mid-European wide-leave forests
Forest areas:Forest areas:
Cuciurganscii liman
r.Camenca
r.Iagorlic
lac. Beleu
r .Br a tu l in c a
Cuciurganscii liman
r.Camenca
r.Iagorlic
lac. Beleu
r .Br a tu l in c a
Southern forests Southern forests
Northern forestNorthern forest
Codru Codru
Beech forestsBeech forests
Oak-hornbeamOak-hornbeam
Step 1. Step 1. Natural forests - historical aspectNatural forests - historical aspect
Oaks occupy about half of all forest
territory
Most forests were cut before the 1850s, with the lowest
forest cover in 1918-1925.At present, forests occupy only about 9-
10% of Moldova territory
1848 1861 1875 1893 1914 1918 1925 1965 1985 1997
Dynamic of forest fundDynamic of forest fund
Изменение лесных площадей Quercus robur и Q. petraeae
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1925 1962 1985 1997
Изменение лесных площадей Fagus sylvatica
0
1
2
3
1925 1965 1985 1997
Изменение лесных площадей Fraxinus excelsior
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1925 1965 1985 1997
Изменение площади лесов Carpinus betulus
0
5
10
15
20
25
1925 1965 1985 1997
Изменение площади лесов интродуцентов
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1925 1965 1985 1997
In the 20th century some In the 20th century some increase of oak forests and increase of oak forests and
maximal decrease of beech ones maximal decrease of beech ones took place, along with significant took place, along with significant increase of introducents share. increase of introducents share.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1925 1962 1985 1997
Changes in forest composition Changes in forest composition (1925-(1925-20002000))
Step 2: Step 2: Development of ecological rows as the Development of ecological rows as the model of natural ecosystems change in new model of natural ecosystems change in new
climatic conditionsclimatic conditions
Step 2: Step 2: Development of ecological rows as the Development of ecological rows as the model of natural ecosystems change in new model of natural ecosystems change in new
climatic conditionsclimatic conditions
Essence of the method:Essence of the method:
Today’s temporal and spatial transition from Today’s temporal and spatial transition from ones plant types to the others is used as an ones plant types to the others is used as an objective criterion for assessment of the objective criterion for assessment of the directions and parameters of natural ecosystem directions and parameters of natural ecosystem qualitative changes in new climate qualitative changes in new climate
Essence of the method:Essence of the method:
Today’s temporal and spatial transition from Today’s temporal and spatial transition from ones plant types to the others is used as an ones plant types to the others is used as an objective criterion for assessment of the objective criterion for assessment of the directions and parameters of natural ecosystem directions and parameters of natural ecosystem qualitative changes in new climate qualitative changes in new climate
Ecological row of meadow ecosystemsEcological row of meadow ecosystems
When runoff decreases
When runoff increases
Grass marsh
Bottomland meadow
Fresh and dry meadow
Percentage of Moldova wetlands with different levels of ground water
(m)
Percentage of Moldova wetlands with different levels of ground water
(m)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
> 2,0 m
1,5 - 2,0 m
1,0 - 1,5 m
0,0 - 1,0 mG
rou
nd
wat
er l
evel
, m
Ecological row of Ecological row of flood plain flood plain forest community forest community depending on humidity conditionsdepending on humidity conditions
Increase of aridity
Ash-willowstand
(Saliceta cinereae)
Ash-willowstand
(Saliceta cinereae)
White-willow stand
(Saliceta albae)
White-willow stand
(Saliceta albae)
White poplar stand
(Populeta albae)
White poplar stand
(Populeta albae)
English oakforest
(Querceta roboris)
English oakforest
(Querceta roboris)
Salicetum phragmitosum
(australis)
Salicetum phragmitosum
(australis)
S. typhosum (latifoliae)
S. typhosum (latifoliae)
S. thelipteridosum (palustris)
S. thelipteridosum (palustris)
S. caricosum (acutiformis)
S. caricosum (acutiformis)
Salicetum phragmitosum
(australis)
Salicetum phragmitosum
(australis)
S. typhosum (angustifoliae)S. typhosum
(angustifoliae)
S. caricosum (ripariae)
S. caricosum (ripariae)
S. rubosum (caesii)S. rubosum (caesii)
S. elytrigosum (repentis)
S. elytrigosum (repentis)
Populetum rubosum (caesi)
Populetum rubosum (caesi)
P. aegopodiosum (podagrariae)
P. aegopodiosum (podagrariae)
P. rubosum (caesii)P. rubosum (caesii)
P. convollariosum (majalis)
P. convollariosum (majalis)
Quercetum aegopodiosum (podagrariae)
Quercetum aegopodiosum (podagrariae)
Q. sambucosum (nigrae)
Q. sambucosum (nigrae)
Q, corylosum (avelanae)
Q, corylosum (avelanae)
Q. urticosum (dioicae)
Q. urticosum (dioicae)
Forest typeForest typeA
ssocia
tion
sA
ssocia
tion
s
Ecological rangeEcological range
EdificatorsEdificatorsPrecipitationPrecipitation Annual temperatureAnnual temperature
SSuboptimumuboptimum OptimumOptimum LLimitimit SSuboptimuboptimumum
OOptimuptimumm
LLimitimit
Fagus sFagus syylvaticalvatica 600600; 1300; 1300 700-1200700-1200 500; 500; 14001400
+4; +10+4; +10 +6 - +6 - ++99 +3+3
Carpinus betulusCarpinus betulus 500; 800500; 800 600-700600-700 400; 900400; 900 +6; +11+6; +11 +8 - +8 - ++1010
+5+5
Quercus petraeaQuercus petraea 500; 900500; 900 600-800600-800 1000; 1000; 11001100
+6;+7;+6;+7;++1111
+8 - +8 - ++1010
+5+5
Quercus roburQuercus robur 350-560350-560 600-800600-800 900900 +7+7 +8 -+8 -++1010
+6+6
Quercus pubescensQuercus pubescens 450450 500-650500-650 700700 +9 - +9 - ++1111 -- +8+8
Co-edificatorsCo-edificatorsTilia tomentosaTilia tomentosa 500500 550-600550-600 400400 +8.5+8.5 +9 - +9 -
++1111+8+8
Fraxinus excelsiorFraxinus excelsior 450;800;9450;800;90000
500-700500-700 400; 400; 10001000
+6;+7;+6;+7;++1111
+8 - +8 - ++1010
+5+5
Beula pendulaBeula pendula 600; 1200600; 1200 700-1100700-1100 500; 500; 13001300
+3; +4+3; +4 +5 - +5 - ++88 +2;-10;-+2;-10;-1111
Ulmus carpinifoliaUlmus carpinifolia 400; 600400; 600 450-550450-550 700700 +7+7 +8 - +8 - ++1010
+11+11
Acer pseudoplatanusAcer pseudoplatanus 700700 800-1100800-1100 500;600;500;600;12001200
+4;+8;+9+4;+8;+9 +5 -+5 -++-7-7 +10+10
In baseline climate outside of optimum conditions are : Quercus pubescens - by temperature, Fagus sylvatica - by humidity. Quercus robur has most wide ecological amplitude by humidity factor.
Step 3:Step 3: Assessment of forest stability & sensitivityAssessment of forest stability & sensitivity by ecological demands of dominant species to by ecological demands of dominant species to
temperature and precipitationtemperature and precipitation
Disposition of key forest species in their areaDisposition of key forest species in their area
Fagus sylvatica Carpinus betulus Quercus petraeaQuercus robur Quercus pubescens
Acer pseudoplatanusSorbus torminalisHedera helix Acer pseudoplatanus
Tilia tomentosaTilia platyphyllosMalus sylvestrisPyrus pyresterUlmus carpinifolia
Fraxinus excelsiorAcer campestrisAcer tataricaViburnum lantanaCerasus aviumTilia cordata
Sorbus domesticaCarpinus orientalisCotinus coggygriaLigustrum vulgareRhamnus tinctoriaCrataegus pentagynaPyrus elaeagnifolia
КодрыКодрыNorthNorth SouthSouth
South-East boundary Ecological optimum
East boundary North boundary
Sensitivity of Sensitivity of forest speciesforest species to climatic to climatic changeschanges
To precipitation decreaseTo precipitation decrease
Vulnerable Sustainable
Fagus sylvaticaQuercus petreaeCarpinus betulusAcer pseudoplatanusBetula pendulaTilia tomentosaSorbus aucupariaPadus racemosa
Fagus sylvaticaQuercus petreaeCarpinus betulusAcer pseudoplatanusBetula pendulaTilia tomentosaSorbus aucupariaPadus racemosa
Quercus roburQuercus pubescensTilia cordataFraxinus excelsiorAcer tataricaCarpinus orientalisSorbus domestica
Quercus roburQuercus pubescensTilia cordataFraxinus excelsiorAcer tataricaCarpinus orientalisSorbus domestica
To temperature increaseTo temperature increase
Quercus pubescensTilia cordataSorbus domesticaSorbus torminalisCarpinus orientalisFraxinus excelsior
Quercus pubescensTilia cordataSorbus domesticaSorbus torminalisCarpinus orientalisFraxinus excelsior
Sustainable
10 % precipitation
change
6.5/7.7 % streamflow
change
10 % annual
temperature change
5.0/6.6 % streamflow
change
Statistical comparison of temperature & Statistical comparison of temperature & precipitation effects on streamflowprecipitation effects on streamflow
27 37 47 57 67
Precipitation
48,9
49,1
49,3
49,5
49,7
Wat
er le
vel
0 40 80 120 160
Precipitation
48,6
48,8
49
49,2
49,4
49,6
Wat
er le
vel
Simple and cross-correlation between monthly Simple and cross-correlation between monthly (left)(left) and and annual annual (right)(right) underground water level and precipitation underground water level and precipitation
r = 0.165
r = 0.075
lag
Cro
ssco
rrel
atio
ns
-13 -8 -3 2 7 12 17
-1
-0,6
-0,2
0,2
0,6
1
lag
Cro
ssco
rrel
atio
ns
-10 -6 -2 2 6 10
-1
-0,6
-0,2
0,2
0,6
1
Step 4-5: Step 4-5: Projections of Projections of change under different change under different
climate change scenariosclimate change scenarios
SRES A2 based climate of forest habitats
Water supply (W)Heat supply (T, Ñ)
Temperate warm (104-124)
Warm (125-144)
Very warm (145-164)
Hot (165-184)
Fresh (2.0 0.6) 2e 2f - -
Dry (0.6 -0.8) 1e 1f 1g 1h
Very dry (-0.8 -2.2) 0e 0f 0g 0h
T = T = Ti, where Ti - mean monthly air temperatures in a month with positive temperatures W = P/T – 0.0286 T, where P – precipitation sum for months with positive air temperatures
B ricen i
C a h u l
C h is in a u
2 e
1 e
1 e
B ricen i
C a h u l
C h isin a u
2 e
2 f
1 e
1 f
B ricen i
C a h u l
C h isin a u
1 f
1 g
0 f0 g
0 g
B ricen i
C a h u l
C h isin a u
0 g
0 h
2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099
1969-1990
Remaining uncertainties (IPCC, 2007):Remaining uncertainties (IPCC, 2007):
although not completely quantified, many although not completely quantified, many species can achieve rapid large-scale species can achieve rapid large-scale migrations, under a considerable range of migrations, under a considerable range of lagged responses; lagged responses;
future landscapes will differ substantially future landscapes will differ substantially from past climate change situations and from past climate change situations and landscape fragmentation creates major landscape fragmentation creates major obstacles to migration; obstacles to migration;
migration is moderated by such processes migration is moderated by such processes as competition, soil formation, land use, as competition, soil formation, land use, herbivores, pathogens;herbivores, pathogens;
tree species do not only respond to a tree species do not only respond to a changing climate by migration, but also by changing climate by migration, but also by local adaptation, including genetic one.local adaptation, including genetic one.