vulnerability of forest ecosystems and other land cover types to climate change in the philippines
DESCRIPTION
VULNERABILITY OF FOREST ECOSYSTEMS AND OTHER LAND COVER TYPES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE PHILIPPINES. R.D. Lasco, F.B. Pulhin, R.V.O. Cruz, J.M. Pulhin and S.S.N. Roy University of the Philippines at Los Banos. Outline of Presentation. Introduction Objectives Methods Results and discussion - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
VULNERABILITY OF FOREST ECOSYSTEMS AND OTHER LAND
COVER TYPES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE PHILIPPINES
R.D. Lasco, F.B. Pulhin, R.V.O. Cruz,
J.M. Pulhin and S.S.N. Roy
University of the Philippines at Los Banos
Outline of Presentation
Introduction Objectives Methods Results and discussion Adaptation strategy and options Watershed scale impacts and adaptation Conclusions
Introduction
World’s forests contain majority of the world’s biodiversity resources
Forests are highly dependent on climate Philippine forests have high floral and faunal
diversity Harbor 13,000 species or 5% of world’s total Effects of climate change have not been
studied
Objectives
Determine the potential vegetative cover of the Philippines without human intervention using the Holdridge Life Zones;
Simulate changes in present vegetative cover as a result of climate change using GIS and the Holdridge Life Zones;
Assess the vulnerability of forest and biodiversity resources in the Philippines to climate change; and
Identify and assess potential adaptation measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change.
2. Assess Current Vulnerability
1. Scope Project Design
3. Characterize Future Climate-related Risks
4. Develop Adaptation Strategy
5. Continue Adaptation Process
Increase Adaptive Capacity
Engage Stake-holders
UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework
Methods 0.125
Wet
ForestW
etForest
Moist Forest
Moist
Forest
DessertScrub
DessertScrub
Rain ForestRain
ForestR
ain
Fo
rest
Rain
Forest
(Rain
Param
o)
Rain
T
und
ra
Rain
Fo
rest
Wet
Fo
rest
Wet
Fo
rest
(Para
mo
)W
et T
und
ra
Wet
Fo
rest
Mo
istF
ore
st
Mo
ist F
ore
st (P
una
)M
oist
Tu
ndra
Mo
istF
ore
st
Dry Forest
Dry Forest
Step
pe
Dry
Scru
b
Dry
Tu
ndra
Dry
Fo
rest
Desse
rt S
crub
Desse
rt
Very
Dry
Fo
rest
Desse
rt
Thorn W
oodland
Dessert
Dessert
Desse
rt S
crub
Desse
rt
Thorn SteppeThorn
Woodland
FROST LINE OR CRITICAL TEMPERATURE LINE
500
1000
2000
4000
8000
250
1250.25
0.50
1.00
2.00
4.00
8.00
16.00 LOWER MONTANEPREMONTANE
MONTANE
SUBALPINE
ALPINE
NIVAL
WARM TEMPERATESUBTROPICAL
COOL TEMPERATE
BOREAL
SUBPOLAR
POLAR
TROPICAL
1.5C
3C
6C
12C
24C
LATITUDINALREGIONS
ALTITUDINALBELTS
Average Total Annual Precipitationin Millimeters
Potential Evapotranspiration
Ratio
The Holdridge System of vegetative cover classification
Me
an
An
nu
al B
iote
mp
era
ture
Precipitation= annual rainfall (mm) Biotemperature:
Mean annual biotemperature (MAB)= Σ (0 < T < 30)/ 12 months or
Mean annual biotemperature= Σ (0 < T < 30)/365 days
Moisture: Mean Annual PET= (MAB) (58.93) PET Ratio= Mean Annual PET/Mean Annual P
Table 1 Synthetic climate change scenarios
Increase in Rainfall
(% relative to present)
Increase in Temperature (oC)
1 1.5 2.0
50 Scenario 1a Scenario 1b Scenario 1c
100 Scenario 2a Scenario 2b Scenario 2c
150 Scenario 3a Scenario 3b Scenario 3c
ArcGIS 8.1 was used to process the maps needed for the Holdridge Life Zone.
Average rainfall (1961-1990) ranges from 1000mm – 4000mm.
A Thiessen map was created from the 55 stations all over the Philippines.
Average temperature (1949-2002) ranges from 19.3C – 28.2C.
Land use map is based on 1993 map prepared by the Presidential Task Force on Water Resources Development and Management.
6 million hectares of forests left (excluding brushland and man-made forest)
Forest vegetation types in the Philippines: closed canopy, mature trees covering > 50% open canopy, mature trees covering < 50% mossy forest pine forest
Potential and actual Holdridge Life Zone determined
Impacts of climate change analyzed
Results and Discussion
Life Zone- mean precip- mean temp
No Classification
Moist Forest
Rain Forest
Wet Forest
Dry Forest
Legend
Figure 2a: Potential Holdridge life zones in the Philippines without human influence.
Comparison of potential and actual (based on 1993 data) life zones in the Philippines
Life Zone Type
Area Distribution (Ha)
Potential Actual
Dry Forest 8,763,696 1,082,197
Moist Forest 15,149,315 3,534,636
Rain Forest 0 0
Wet Forest 5,646,414 2,266,455
TOTAL 29,559,426 6,883,289
Life Zone- mean precip- mean temp
Life Zone- mean precip- mean temp
Life Zone- mean precip- mean temp
No Classification
Moist Forest
Rain Forest
Wet Forest
Dry Forest
Legend
Life Zone (1a)- precip (50% )- temp (1C )
Life Zone (1b)- precip (50% )- temp (1.5C )
Life Zone (1c)- precip (50% )- temp (2C )
Holdridge life zones in the Philippines under Scenario 1 (50% increase in rainfall) and at three levels of temperature increase.
No Classification
Moist Forest
Rain Forest
Wet Forest
Dry Forest
Legend
Life Zone (2a)- precip (100% )- temp (1C )
Life Zone (2b)- precip (100% )- temp (1.5C )
Life Zone (2c)- precip (100% )- temp (2C )
Holdridge life zones in the Philippines under Scenario 2 (100% increase in rainfall) and at three levels of temperature increase.
No Classification
Moist Forest
Rain Forest
Wet Forest
Dry Forest
Legend
Life Zone (3a)- precip (200% )- temp (1C )
Life Zone (3b)- precip (200% )- temp (1.5C )
Life Zone (3c)- precip (200% )- temp (2C )
No Classification
Moist Forest
Rain Forest
Wet Forest
Dry Forest
Legend
Scenario 1
Life Zone Type
Area Distribution (Ha)
Actual 1a 1b 1c
Dry Forest 1,082,197 0 0 0
Moist Forest 3,534,636 1,201,671 1,201,671 1,201,671
Rain Forest 0 365,181 361,099 321,736
Wet Forest 2,266,455 5,316,436 5,320,518 5,359,880
No Classification
TOTAL 6,883,288 6,883,288 6,883,288 6,883,288
Life Zone Type
Area Distribution (Ha)
Actual 2a 2b 2c
Dry Forest 1,082,197 0 0 0
Moist Forest 3,534,636 1,082,197 1,082,197 1,201,671
Rain Forest 0 2,266,455 2,266,455 2,007,262
Wet Forest 2,266,455 3,534,636 3,534,636 3,674,354
No Classification
TOTAL 6,883,288 6,883,288 6,883,28 6,883,288
Scenario 2
Life Zone Type
Area Distribution (Ha)
Actual 3a 3b 3c
Dry Forest 1,082,197 0 0 0
Moist Forest 3,534,636 0 0 0
Rain Forest 0 5,316,436 5,320,518 5,359,880
Wet Forest 2,266,455 1,201,671 1,201,671 1,201,671
No Classification 365,181 361,099 321,736
TOTAL 6,883,288 6,883,288 6,883,288 6,883,288
Scenario 3
Adaptation Strategy and Options
little consideration of an overall climate change adaptation strategy and its various options for Philippine forest ecosystems.
1999 Philippines Initial National Communication contains adaptation options for watershed management that partly apply to forest ecosystems
There are many laws and polices governing the use and conservation of forest resources in the Philippines
the government has been actively pursuing several initiatives in spite of its limited resources.
Conservation of remaining forests in NIPAS sites and watershed areas.
Reforestation and rehabilitation of barren upland areas through tree planting and agroforestry.
Community-based forestry activities such as community organizing and development.
Climate change is hardly being considered at all in the planning process of forest resources.
Its more urgent concern is to save the remaining forests from human exploitation which is the more imminent threat.
Philippine forests in general are not in danger of disappearing with climate change.
certain forest types especially the dry forest types are highly vulnerable and could be replaced by other types of forests.
an overall adaptation strategy should probably focus on identifying which forest areas are more at risk and which species are unique in these areas.
Specific adaptation options could include helping vulnerable species migrate, assisting local communities shift from forest products from forests at risk, etc.
Watershed Scale: Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation
Multi-stakeholder workshop Farmers, NGOs, DENR, LGUs
GRASSLAND ECOSYSTEMS
Climate VariabilityImpact Degree of
VulnerabilityAdaptation Measures
Early or late onset of rainy season
|La Nina Less fires
El Nino Forest firesIndicator: number of fires; area burned
Highly vulnerableIndicator: Frequency of firesArea burned
Fire brigadeIECIndicator: number of fire brigades,
High Temperature/ Summer season
Forest firesIndicator: number of fires, area burned
Frequency of firesArea burned
Fire linesFire brigade
Rainy season Less fires
TREE PLANTATIONS
Climate VariabilityImpact Degree of
VulnerabilityAdaptation Measures
Early or late onset of rainy season
High mortality of out planted seedlings (late)Indicator: % survival
High Plant after xx days of rain; Mulching; Irrigation (not practical); choice of species
|La Nina Higher survival?
El Nino Forest firesIndicator|: frequency; area burned
High Fires lines; fire brigades; IEC; choice of species
High Temperature/ Summer season
Forest fires
Rainy season Higher survival?
NATURAL FORESTS
Climate VariabilityImpact Degree of
VulnerabilityAdaptation Measures
Early or late onset of rainy season
|La Nina More landslidesIndicators|: area; frequency
Low
El Nino Forest fires on edges; increase slash and burn farmingIndicators: area, frequency
Medium
High Temperature/ Summer season
Fires on edges
Rainy season More landslidesIndicators: area, frequency
Low
UPLAND FARMS
Climate VariabilityImpact Degree of
VulnerabilityAdaptation Measures
Early or late onset of rainy season
Late: low yieldIndicator|: yield
Choice of early maturing crops
|La Nina Damage to crops\Indicator\: yield
Choice of varieties
El Nino Shortened planting season; lower yield; firesIndicator: yield; area and frequency of fires
Choice of varieties
High Temperature/ Summer season
Fires Choice of varieties
Rainy season Flooding of crops
LOWLAND FARMS
Climate VariabilityImpact Degree of
VulnerabilityAdaptation Measures
Early or late onset of rainy season
|La Nina Flooding of crops|Indicators|: area flooded
High Choice of variety
El Nino Lack of irrigation water|Indicators|: crop yield
Medium Choice of variety; mulching
High Temperature/ Summer season
Rainy season
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