unido - technology foresight for practitioners - training course, 6-10 october 2003, prague ioir -...

UNIDO - Technology Foresight for Practitioners - Training course, 6-10 October 2003, Prague

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FORESIGHT TOOLS –FORESIGHT TOOLS –SCENARIOSCENARIO PLANNINGPLANNINGFORESIGHT TOOLS –FORESIGHT TOOLS –SCENARIOSCENARIO PLANNINGPLANNING

Ian Miles IoIRUniversity of [email protected] http://les1.man.ac.uk/cric/Ian_Miles


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Outline:Outline:What are Scenarios?Why Use them?Varieties of ScenariosWays of Producing ScenariosUsing Scenarios in Scenario Planning

and Foresight


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What are scenarios? What are scenarios? Many definitions – Kahn, Schwartz, etc.

Two main emphases:

IMAGE OF THE FUTURE – Description(s) of a future set of circumstances, portrait(s) of the state of affairs. “Static”. Date or period may be more or less tightly specified, or image tied to a particular set of developments).

FUTURE HISTORY – Description of a future course of events, sequence

of developments. “Dynamic”,, often highlighting key events, decisions, or turning points


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Multiple scenario analysisMultiple scenario analysis

Common to use 3 or more scenarios: To illustrate alternatives, indicate a range of

plausible developments (not one inevitable future path).

To stimulate reflection on underlying assumptions. To assess robustness of strategies. To give insight into contexts and outcomes

(intended or otherwise) under which actions may be undertaken, events may happen, objectives may be realised.

To help identify turning points, key decisions, indicators, early warnings of change.


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Uses of ScenariosUses of Scenarios

Many Uses including: Scenario Analysis as Methodological Tool to structure work, ensure robustness of strategies,

stimulate and challenge informants. Scenario Workshops as Process Tools to allow for exchange of views and visions, provoke and

legitimate thinking “out of box” (routine paths), etc. Scenario Reports as Products for synthesis and presentation of results – to integrate

and check coherence of outputs, to communicate and illustrate major results and conclusions.


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Products (codified outputs) reports, books, videos. Discursive accounts, summaries,

action lists and priorities. Inputs to decision making. Scenarios: to integrate diverse studies, concretise and

communicate visions; suggest action points and key indicators

Process (embodied knowledge, networks, actions) forging and enriching networks, developing knowledge about

knowledge. Establishing and empowering constituencies for action. Scenario analysis: to recruit support, integrate diverse viewpoints; share & fuse visions, provide focus for joint work.

The big question: What sort of mix?

Scenarios as Product and Process Scenarios as Product and Process


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The Numbers GameThe Numbers Game One scenario - a presentational device, to illustrate a

particular future. (E.g. a preferred or most likely state) Several scenario vignettes - to indicate different

facets of essentially the same future - illustration, a tool for elaborating ideas, for exploring the consistency of different lines of thought.

Canonical variations – variations around a dominant set of trends.

Multiple scenario analysis - setting out alternative paths of development and their implications.

HOW MANY – depends on context. Usual rule of thumb – 3 or 4. But some work, e.g. Canadian studies, uses many more.


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Building ScenariosBuilding Scenarios

Clarifying Purposes, Audiences Identify Key DriversDevelop themes, “stories”Compare relevant elementsDevelop “sign posts”Check wildcards


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Two Stances for Scenario AnalysisTwo Stances for Scenario Analysis

Starting from the present (“exploratory”):

What next?What if?

Where to?

How to?

Starting from the future

(“normative”):


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Outward: The PrincipleOutward: The Principle

Trends, processes

Trends, processes

Events, strategies

Events, strategies

Course of events (future history)


Outcome of events

(image of future)

Outcome of events

(image of future)

WorldviewWorldview


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Inward: The PrincipleInward: The Principle

Critical end-state (profile

of future)

Worldview

Outcome of events

(image of future)

Trends, processes

Events, strategies


Critical event path


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A

B

C

Outward Scenarios – Common ApproachOutward Scenarios – Common Approach

A common framework for workshop and expert groups to systematically analyse “drivers and shapers”, and to group trends and events is STEEPV:

May also diverge according to worldviews or strategic alternatives

Pathways diverge

according to varying

Events/Trends Social

Technological

Economic

Environmental

Political

Values


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• May select particularly interesting trends, uncertainties – e.g. where high importance and high uncertainty. Various methods. 2x2 common result.

May use standard structure and process drivers (etc) through these. E.g. IAF adaptation of GBN scenarios for workshops: BEST GUESS, best intelligence, extrapolation, most likely; HARD TIMES (major, but not “over the cliff” challenges); Improvement/ Paradigm shift 1; Visionary/Paradigm shift 2

• May select particularly interesting trends, uncertainties – e.g. where high importance and high uncertainty. Various methods. 2x2 common result.

May use standard structure and process drivers (etc) through these. E.g. IAF adaptation of GBN scenarios for workshops: BEST GUESS, best intelligence, extrapolation, most likely; HARD TIMES (major, but not “over the cliff” challenges); Improvement/ Paradigm shift 1; Visionary/Paradigm shift 2

Choosing Outward Scenarios


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Profile 1

Profile 3

Profile 2

Profile 4

High Growth

Low Growth

Will world economic

development mean:

Inward Scenarios – Desk-based ExampleInward Scenarios – Desk-based Example

A step on from IAF/GBN: select futures of particular interest to users - not necessarily desirable ones :

thus a PROFILE approach, with parameters as outcomes, not drivers or trends What would

it be like?

How do we get there?

WorldviewsLow Equality

High Equality


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Inward Scenarios - Workshop ExampleInward Scenarios - Workshop Example

A desirable futures of particular interest to users - the SUCCESS SCENARIO (uses a PROFILE approach, but not usually multiple scenario analysis other than at outset)

Background

inputs (inc

framework

scenarios, SWOT,

etc)Specification

of feasible,

desirable

future

Indicators of

realisation

and progress

Actions and

responsible

parties


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Scenario Generation & Analysis -

Methods

Scenario Generation & Analysis -

Methods Genius forecasts Expert Groups, deskwork, with systematic tools Surveys, clustering articulated viewpoints Workshops

.. Beginning to see computer support in several ways inc. (a) modelling (b) group support (c) viewpoint analysis


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“Ups” and “Downs” of Scenario Generation Methods

“Ups” and “Downs” of Scenario Generation Methods

Developed using inputs from large constituency (usually including, if not

exclusively) “users”.

Small constituency of “experts” develop for large user community.

Developed in workshop, etc., involving at least some users.


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Examples of “Ups” and “Downs”Examples of “Ups” and “Downs”

Expert group analysis using “what if” approaches, using worldviews/different perspectives, using end-state profiles…

Exploratory ………. SCENARIO WORKSHOPS …….Normative

Analysis of survey results to define different expectations

Various combinations of approaches…


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Multiple Outward Scenarios clustered from Survey Responses

Multiple Outward Scenarios clustered from Survey Responses

IT Futures SurveyedIT Futures Surveyed

Survey asked a series of questions about how far IT

applications and implications would have developed over

next 10, 20 years. Results factor analysed to

obtain simplified structure First two components led

to four scenarios, with numerical estimates, etc.

Pace of Change: Faster

Slower

Results of Change more:Negative Positive

1 2

3 4


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Scenarios, derived from different diagnoses of present situation

Desk-Based Outward Scenarios, derived from

different diagnoses of present situation

Paperless Society

Paperless Society

Where are we now?

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

How much change to expect; how

similar to present...


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Workshop-based Inwards ScenarioWorkshop-based Inwards Scenario

Maria - Road

Warrior

Dimitrious - Digital

Me

Carmen - Traffic &

Commerce

Annette & Solomon - Social

Learning

REQUIREMENTS: Sociopolitical

Business & Industrial Models Technology ………

IPTS/ISTAG AmbienceIPTS/ISTAG

Ambience

Potential Functionality of AmI


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Planning Process

Is there a specific issue – or is this general strategic intelligence?

Planning team, drawing on relevant expertise (within and outside organisation)

Embedding scenario work, fostering “ownership” Legitimate scenario activity as real work Undermining business-as-usual assumptions,

confronting potential challenges, testing strategies Forging groups to develop new approaches Creating frameworks for more quantitative analysis


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Presentation and communicationPresentation and communication

HISTORIES “Flow charts” Trend analysis Signposts (indicators and

events – useful for scanning) Narratives (press reports;

historian’s reflections…) Strategy games – good for

analysis of options, plans…

IMAGES Comparative Tables

Charts Narratives (press stories;

diaries, vignettes …) portrait of organisation/

market/ actors... policy outcomes

How to deal with wildcards??


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Scenario Assessment ~ how far are the scenarios/outputs:

Scenario Assessment ~ how far are the scenarios/outputs:

Not too numerous,detailed or ambiguous – expressed in terms relevant to user

capabilities and interests

Reflect the range of potential future conditions, challenges, for the topic/users

Stretch thinking, include surprises

Confront the difficulty, ambiguity, and significance of the topic; Scope for thinking the unthinkable, transgressing boundaries,

while not triggering kneejerk controversy

Useful

Robust (not Accurate as such)

Novel/ Stimulating

Provocative/ Challenging


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Conclusions :Conclusions :

Scenarios are potentially very useful, but have to be appropriate to purposes, audience, etc

Can make product and/or process contributions to Foresight and planning – and to sharing visions & plans.

A combination of expertise and craft – not magic, gurus not necessary, but require preparation, training.

Capable of being produced in many different ways. There may be a best way or at least a best set of ways for a

given situation, but there is no one all-purpose best way. Sometimes fun to produce; sometimes fun to read, usually

hard work to create (OK); often hard work to use (this is not OK)!


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End of PresentationEnd of Presentation

Thanks for attention – questions welcome

unido - technology foresight for practitioners - training course, 6-10 october 2003, prague ioir -...

Documents

foresight slide

unido technology foresight

prague ioir institute

innovation research

future course of events

manchester products

scenario reports

manchester outline