PowerPoint PresentationFAA 2006-2017 Forecast
Tower Ops down 0.1%
OEP 35 Commercial + 3.9%
Industry
DL and NW in bankruptcy – shrink 10% to 20%
AA, US announced reductions
Production of 50 seat RJs stopped
At least 107 aircraft to be grounded in FY 2006
Significant 70/90 seat aircraft demand
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Y/Y turned positive in May 2005 and is increasing
Tight capacity with current demand => prices up
Competition and productivity increases drive long term decline
Load factor increasing
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Forecast Overview FY 2006-17
Slow growth in 2006, rebound in 2007, return to historical trends after that
Demand continues to grow
Passengers: +3.1% per year
Domestic +2.9%, International + 5.0%
RPMs: +4.1% per year
Domestic +3.6%, International + 5.5%
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Domestic: - 0.8% per year
International: -0.8% per year
Cargo continues to grow
General Aviation fleet and activity rising
New products stimulate growth
Workload continues to increase
Commercial + 3.2%, Non-Commercial + 2.4%
Commercial +2.4%, Non-Commercial + 1.8%
2005-2006: 2.5%
2006-2007: 3.1%
2007-2017: 3.2%
2005-2006: -0.4%
2006-2007: 2.7%
2007-2017: 2.2%
Mainline carrier financial woes
Sufficient Capacity
Forecast Summary
Slow growth in 2006, rebound in 2007, return to historical rates afterwards
Demand continues to grow in line with economy
Real yield continues to fall
Aircraft continue to get smaller
Workload gets higher
Current
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1,100,000
200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Current
0
300,000
600,000
900,000
1,200,000
1,500,000
200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Current
116
118
120
122
124
126
128
130
200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Current
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
14.00
15.00
16.00
200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Current
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
24,000
27,000
30,000
33,000
36,000
39,000
42,000
200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Current
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Current