assessing forecast uncertainty in the national digital forecast database
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Assessing Forecast Uncertainty in the National Digital Forecast Database. AMS Weather Analysis and Forecasting Matt Peroutka, Greg Zylstra, John Wagner NOAA/NWS Meteorological Development Lab August 1, 2005. National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Assessing Forecast Assessing Forecast Uncertainty in the Uncertainty in the National Digital National Digital Forecast DatabaseForecast Database
AMS Weather Analysis and ForecastingAMS Weather Analysis and ForecastingMatt Peroutka, Greg Zylstra, John WagnerMatt Peroutka, Greg Zylstra, John WagnerNOAA/NWS Meteorological Development NOAA/NWS Meteorological Development LabLabAugust 1, 2005August 1, 2005
National Digital National Digital Forecast Database Forecast Database (NDFD)(NDFD) Contains a mosaic of Contains a mosaic of
NWS digital forecastsNWS digital forecasts Is available to all users Is available to all users
and partners – public and partners – public and privateand private
Allows users and Allows users and partners to create wide partners to create wide range of text, graphic, range of text, graphic, and image productsand image products
How is NDFD Produced?How is NDFD Produced?
User-Generated ProductsUser-Generated Products
– Detailed– Interactive– Collaborativ
e
NWS Automated ProductsNWS Automated Products
TextText
GraphicGraphic
DigitalDigital
VoiceVoice
National Digital National Digital ForecastForecast
Database Database
Local Digital Local Digital ForecastForecast
Database Database
Field Field OfficesOffices
National National CentersCentersCollaborateCollaborate
Data and Science FocusData and Science Focus
National CentersNational Centers Model GuidanceModel Guidance
GridsGrids
TODAY...RAIN LIKELY.
SNOW LIKELY ABOVE
2500 FEET. SNOW
ACCUMULATION BY
LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO
2 INCHES ABOVE 2500
FEET. COLDER WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.
SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO
10 MPH SHIFTING TO
THE
SOUTHWESTEARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70%.
TODAY...RAIN LIKELY.
SNOW LIKELY ABOVE
2500 FEET. SNOW
ACCUMULATION BY
LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO
2 INCHES ABOVE 2500
FEET. COLDER WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.
SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO
10 MPH SHIFTING TO
THE
SOUTHWESTEARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70%.
Single-valued Single-valued ForecastsForecasts Most NDFD weather Most NDFD weather
elements are elements are single-valuedsingle-valued
Can be viewed as a Can be viewed as a limitationlimitation
Forecast Forecast uncertainty uncertainty information can information can enhance customer enhance customer decision processes decision processes
Numeric Uncertainty Numeric Uncertainty Assessment of NDFD via Assessment of NDFD via Climatology and Ensembles Climatology and Ensembles (NUANCE)(NUANCE)
NDFDForecast
NDFDPerformance
RelatedGuidance
ExpectedDistribution ofObservations
NUANCE
Development and Development and ImplementationImplementation
DevelopmentDevelopment– Amass observation Amass observation (x)(x) and forecast and forecast (f) (f)
pairs pairs – Model joint distribution, Model joint distribution, p(f,x)p(f,x)– Refine with diagnostic data Refine with diagnostic data (d)(d) to form to form p(f,x,d)p(f,x,d)
ImplementationImplementation– Use current values of Use current values of ff and and dd, and , and p(f,x,d)p(f,x,d)– Infer conditional distribution of observations, Infer conditional distribution of observations, p(x|f,d)p(x|f,d)
Data SourcesData Sources
Ideally, NDFD grids and Analysis of Ideally, NDFD grids and Analysis of RecordRecord
Prototype with NDFD point forecasts and Prototype with NDFD point forecasts and METAR observationsMETAR observations
Ensemble MOS (ENSMOS) archivesEnsemble MOS (ENSMOS) archives– One set of forecasts from control runOne set of forecasts from control run– Five sets of forecasts created from runs with Five sets of forecasts created from runs with
positive perturbationspositive perturbations– Five sets of forecasts created from runs with Five sets of forecasts created from runs with
negative perturbationsnegative perturbations
Diagnostic DataDiagnostic Data
Standard Deviation (SD) of 11 Standard Deviation (SD) of 11 ENSMOS forecasts.ENSMOS forecasts.
““Ensemble Deviation” (ED)Ensemble Deviation” (ED)– Difference each perturbed forecast Difference each perturbed forecast
with control forecastwith control forecast– Compute root mean squareCompute root mean square
Transformation to Transformation to PercentilesPercentiles Useful to transform both Useful to transform both ff and and xx from from
native values to climatological native values to climatological percentilespercentiles– Data from U. S. Historical Climatology Data from U. S. Historical Climatology
Network (USHCN)Network (USHCN) Addresses lack of extreme cases in Addresses lack of extreme cases in
development data development data Encourages combining of dataEncourages combining of data
– NDFD has a short historyNDFD has a short history– Expect Expect p(f,x)p(f,x) to vary by region and by to vary by region and by
forecastforecast
Development PhaseDevelopment Phase
Observations (x)
Forecasts (f)
Diagnostic Data (d)
MergeJoint
Distribution Model p(f,x,d)
Transform to
Percentiles
Implementation PhaseImplementation Phase
Forecasts (f)
Diagnostic Data (d)
Joint Distribution
Model p(f,x,d)
Extract
Inferred Conditional Distribution
p(x | f,d)
Transform from
Percentiles
Transform to
Percentiles
Results: Results: Transformation to Transformation to PercentilesPercentiles Obtained daily maximum temperature Obtained daily maximum temperature
(MaxT) observations for 168 stations from (MaxT) observations for 168 stations from USHCNUSHCN
Computed percentile function at 5-day Computed percentile function at 5-day intervals throughout the yearintervals throughout the year
Used Generalized Lambda Distribution to Used Generalized Lambda Distribution to model percentile functionmodel percentile function– Percentile function fitted to observations.Percentile function fitted to observations.– Fit parameters expressed as cosine series over day Fit parameters expressed as cosine series over day
of the year.of the year.– Quality of fit judged subjectively.Quality of fit judged subjectively.– Additional terms added to cosine series, if needed.Additional terms added to cosine series, if needed.
Results of Percentile Transform Technique for Blythe, California
Baudette, Minnesota (KBDE; blue)Fort Lauderdale, Florida (KFLL; purple)Blythe, California (KBLH; red)
Comparison of MaxT Percentiles
Results: Modeling Results: Modeling Joint DistributionJoint Distribution
Day 1 vs. Day 7Day 1 vs. Day 7
Day 1 forecasts Day 1 forecasts verify better verify better
Day 7 points cluster Day 7 points cluster around the 0.50 around the 0.50 forecast value moreforecast value more
Fewer extreme Fewer extreme forecasts on Day 7forecasts on Day 7
Results: Diagnostic Results: Diagnostic DataData Day 7 forecasts, Day 7 forecasts,
stratified by Ensemble stratified by Ensemble Deviation.Deviation.
ED < 6° F (above) vs. ED < 6° F (above) vs. ED ≥ 6° F (below). ED ≥ 6° F (below).
Suggests more skillful Suggests more skillful forecasts when ED < 6° forecasts when ED < 6° F, but relationship is not F, but relationship is not obvious. obvious.
Future PlansFuture Plans
Quantitatively assess uncertaintyQuantitatively assess uncertainty Expand to include minimum Expand to include minimum
temperaturetemperature Work with gridsWork with grids Prototype experimental guidance Prototype experimental guidance
productsproducts