climate forecast applications institutionalizing climate forecast applications for agriculture
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Forecast Applications
Institutionalizing Climate Forecast
Applications for Agriculture
Climate Forecast Applications
Institutionalization
Sustained operational use of seasonal
climate forecasts beyond the life of a
project (Hansen, 2002)
Climate Forecast Applications Key components
Institutional commitment
-Providing forecast information
-support for climate forecast application
-policies that favour beneficial use
Researchers need to understand policy profile and influence the policy to some extent
Cooperation between institutions (lateral and vertical interactions)
Continuous incorporation of new developments
Climate Forecast Applications
Institutionalization process should start evolving during the course of the project itself when other pre-requisites are satisfied
Climate Forecast Applications Demonstration of climate forecast application: Pilot sites
Climate Forecast Applications Country wide disaster calendar:
Indonesia Philippines Vietnam
Jan - Feb: Floods
May - Sep: Drought
Nov - Mar: Drought
Jul - Aug: Typhoons
Aug - Nov: Typhoons
Sep - Nov: Floods
Dec - May: Drought
Climate Forecast Applications Climate forecast application experiences:
Indonesia:
Set up the National Forecasting Working Group in 1997 composed of BMG (Meteorological and Geophysical Agency), BPPT (Bureau of Assessment and Application of Technology), LAPAN (National Space Center) , Agricultural Research Institute, and Water Resources Management Research Institute
The Working Group draws upon forecast information from ASMC (ASEAN
Specialized Meteorological Center), IRI (International Research Institute for Climate Prediction), BOM (Bureau of Meteorology Australia), and UKMO (UK Met Office)
Prepares seasonal forecast guidance that includes seasonal monsoon onset, and monthly and seasonal cumulative rainfall for 102 climate forecasting regions
National user agencies process the outlook with reference to past impacts, for dissemination to provincial sectoral agencies as general alerts
Feedback from field user agencies to national agencies happens when a disaster occurs (Strong feedback to ensure subsidies)
Information not usable to the level expected for development planning
Climate Forecast Applications Climate forecast application experiences:
Philippines:
First season ahead forecast issued in Jan 1985; ENSO indices incorporated in seasonal forecasts starting 1987 during 1986-87 El Niño
Established the Drought Early Warning and Monitoring System (now known as
National ENSO Early Warning and Monitoring System) in 1987, which provided seasonal forecasts to policy and decision makers, economic planners and emergency managers
User departments analyze potential impacts and accordingly prepare contingency plans
For example, the Department of Agriculture, on receipt of advisory:o analyzes potential impacts and prepares vulnerability map for the country’s 12
administrative regions
o modifies map using inputs from irrigation department, food security agency, and agriculture research institutions
o disseminates information to regional/ provincial agriculture offices
Need to develop capacities to process information that is usable at the local level
Climate Forecast Applications
Climate forecast application experiences:
Vietnam:
Seasonal forecast based on Eurasian snow cover, ITCZ, etc.
Incorporated ENSO information in seasonal forecast only in 2000
Seasonal forecast disseminated to agriculture, water resources and disaster management agencies as general alert
Needed to make climate information usable for development planning
Climate Forecast Applications The need:
Climate forecast information that: is localized
timely
in easily understandable language meets end user needs
The issues:
Capacity to generate the localized information
Experience in communicating probabilistic scientific information for practical use by end users
Climate Forecast Applications
Climate forecast applications : Considerations
Institutionalization of the end-to-end climate information
generation and application system
Demonstrates local application of climate information
Provides localized climate information that matches users’
needs
Climate Forecast Applications Methodology: Six step process
Assess user needs and existing capacities of national institutions to meet these needs (need/ capacity assessments)
Assess relevance of latest scientific information to meet these needs (assessment of available technology)
Develop partnerships and enhance capacities of national institutions to generate information (capacity building through partnerships)
Institutional development to communicate information to end users (institutionalization of end-to-end system: pilot demonstrations, replication)
Apply information
Monitor and evaluate applicability of information
Climate Forecast Applications End-to-end climate information generation and
application system
Providing climate outlook
Interpreting global climate outlook into local outlook
Translating local climate outlook into impact scenarios
Communication of response options/ feedback
Climate Forecast Applications Activities:
Climate outlook:
Create a database on climate, ENSO impacts, new forecast tools
Develop climate scenario with ENSO indices
Generate downscaled climate information products
Develop seasonal climate outlook
Translation into impact outlook:
Create an agro-climate database
Develop climate impact scenarios on critical stages of the crop cycle and impact of pests and diseases on crop production
Develop seasonal climate impact outlook
Climate Forecast Applications Activities:
Application:
Develop institutional and project partnerships
Select demonstration sites
Analyze socio-economic / sectoral impacts of climate variability
Analyze institutional landscape
Analyze policy-decision system interaction
Include downscaled climate information into current policy, decision system
Evaluate performance of new decision system
Formulate policy changes for climate information utilization
Uptake policy and decision tools
Replication
Climate Forecast Applications Institutional mechanism: Indonesia
Provision of climate outlook
BMG
IPB
Translation of climate outlook
into impact outlook
Indramayu Agriculture Office
Conversion of impact outlook into crop management
strategies
Dissemination of information to farmers and evaluation of
farmers responseDirectorate of Plant Protection
Climate Forecast Applications Institutional mechanism: Philippines
GLOBAL CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERS
Sea Surface Temperature AnomaliesRainfall Anomalies
Temperature Anomalies
CAB/ PAGASA/ DOST
Analysis / Downscaling techniques / Impact assessment procedures /
Forum Discussion
Tailored Local Climate Forecasts / Advisories (I loilo)
CLIMATE PATTERNS TRENDS
Near-real-time Data
HISTORICAL DATA AND INFORMATION
Episodic Events Documents
Dumangas Agromet Station
TWG CLIMATE FORUM
Prov’l Agricultural Officer Municipal Agricultural Officers
NIA Region VI Dumangas Agromet Station Officer
Farmers Reps. Local Irrigation System Office
IMPACTS / DECISION OUTLOOKS / ADVISORIES
FARMERS
Translation of Global Climate Forecasts into Impacts / Decision Translation of Global Climate Forecasts into Impacts / Decision Outlooks Outlooks and Advisories for the Endand Advisories for the End--User Farmers of Dumangas and Tigbauan, IloiloUser Farmers of Dumangas and Tigbauan, Iloilo
Climate Forecast Applications Institutional mechanism: Vietnam
ASMC IRI RCFC
NCHMF (HMS) CRC (IMH)
ARC (IMH)
Agriculture Extension (MARD)
QT Climate Information
Application Group
QT HMAC
DistrictDistrictDistrict
CommunesCommunesCommunes
FarmersFarmersFarmers
Provincial level Hydromet / Agricultural Extension Service
Climate Forecast Applications Partnerships with international, national, local institutions:
Bureau of Meteorology and Geophysics
Directorate of Crop Protection, Ministry of Agriculture Bogor Agricultural University
Central Bureau of Statistics
BULOG (National food logistics agency)
Ministry of Regional Infrastructure
BAKORNAS BPB(National coordinating agency for disaster management)
CARE International in Indonesia
BPTP(Agency for the Assessment and Application of Agriculture Technology
Agriculture and Rural Development Bank
Provincial governments: West Java and Nusa Tenggara Timur
Office of the Bupati, Indramayu Regency, West Java
Farmers groups
International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI)
Indonesia
Climate Forecast Applications Partnerships with international, national, local institutions cont.:
PAGASA(Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Department of Agriculture
Bureau of Agricultural Statistics
National Irrigation Administration
National Water Resources Board
National Disaster Coordinating Council
Dumangas Municipal Government
Local NGOs
Farmers groups
National Power Corporation
Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Hydrometeorological Service, Vietnam
Agrometeorological Research Center
Climate Research Center
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
Quang Tri Department of Science and Environment
Vietnam
Philippine
Climate Forecast Applications Forums for climate information providers and users:
National:
Seasonal climate forum (national meteorological and hydrological service (NMHS), intermediate users - e.g. agriculture and water resources ministries)
Inter- (user) agency committees (NMHS, agriculture and water resources ministries, water regulatory board, dam operators, water concessionaires, hydropower agency)
Sub-national: Provincial working group (provincial meteorological and hydrological station, agriculture and irrigation departments, universities, local government units, NGOs)
Local:
Local climate forum (local meteorological and hydrological station, agriculture and irrigation departments, local government unit, local NGOs, farmers’ groups)
Field schools (provincial and local meteorological and hydrological station,
agriculture extension, farmers)
F A R M E R S
Farmer Groups
P1-1
P1-2P1-2 P1-2
F A R M E R S
Farmer Groups
P1-1P1-1
P1-2P1-2 P1-2P1-2P1-2 P1-2P1-2P1-2 P1-2
Stage 1: training of agricultural extension specialists (district level)
Stage 2: training of agricultural extension workers (sub-district)
Stage 3: training of heads of farmers groups
Stage 4: training of farmers
Climate field schools:
Climate Forecast Applications Indonesia (Local level)
Climate Forecast Applications Delivery of locally-relevant climate information: Indonesia
Indramayu District, West Java, Indonesia
Step 1 : Revised climate forecast regions
New Climate ForecastRegion (DPM) for
Indramayu
DPM 6DPM 7
RATA-2 HUJAN B ULAN AN (m m)
0
50
100150
200250
300
350400
J F M A M J J A S O N D
RATA-2 HUJAN B ULAN AN (mm )
0
50100
150
200
250300
350
400
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Old Climate ForecastRegion (DPM) for
Indramayu
Climate Forecast Applications Step 2: Preparation of forecast maps
Indramayu District, West Java, Indonesia
Onset of dry season 2003
Dry season rainfall, 2003
Climate Forecast Applications Step 3: Preparation of forecast response plan
Indramayu District, West Java, Indonesia
Impact outlook
Farmers’ response plan
Climate Forecast Applications Climate forecast application: Philippine experience - 2002-03
Aug 2002: PAGASA issued the climate outlook for dry season Nov 2002 - Mar 2003, which forecasted rains below normal level
Based on this outlook, provincial agriculture office (PAO) prepared the impact outlook - tail-enders will not receive sufficient water for rice crop
PAO prepared response plan advising farmers to change crops
Most farmers followed the advice and changed their crop
The experience demonstrated the economic value of climate information
The experience convinced end users, local institutions of utility of climate information
Climate Forecast Applications Climate forecast application: milestones
Indonesia:
BMG now releases forecasts that are relevant to the lead-time requirements of end users
BMG have refined the seasonal forecast for Indramayu by establishing 6 forecast regions in place of existing 2 regions
Ownership (district head has incorporated CFA as priority activity of district development plan)
Counterpart funding (US$ 20,000) from BMG to support activity in Indramayu
National Government plan to streamline IPM field school programme with climate field school
Climate Forecast Applications Climate forecast application: milestones
Philippines:
Use of dry season 2002-2003 forecast was used by provincial agriculture office for the first time in preparing impact outlook and advised farmers to change crops
Provincial agriculture office proposed to establish a large number of local rainfall monitoring stations
Dumangas municipality established local agromet station
Local ordinance provides municipal funds to support climate forecast application on a continuous basis
Climate Forecast Applications Climate forecast Institutionalization: prerequisites
Local level demonstration of providing locally relevant climate information on a sustained basis
Involvement of local institutions, with financial/ budgetary commitment
Local institutions advocate for national policy
National policy replicates the program
Capacity building of intermediary institutions to translate and communicate forecasts
