Flare scoreboard planning group:J. Andries (SIDC), A. Devos (SIDC), J. Guerra (TCD), S. Hong (KSWC), M. Kuznetsova (NASA GSFC), L. Mays (NASA GSFC), S. Murray (Met

Office), G. Steward (BoM), M. Terkildsen (BoM).

Real time forecasting methods validation with the Flare Scoreboard

The Flare Scoreboard facilitates model validation by collecting and displaying real-time forecasts from multiple models and serving data downloads via an API.

Currently registered models:

ASSAAutomatic Solar Synoptic Analyser

ASAPAutomatic Solar Activity Prediction

BoMData-driven probabilistic flare forecast model

MAG4 LOS and vector magnetogram forecasts

Met OfficeRadio Blackout Forecast

SIDCHuman operator moderated forecast

Please check the planning page if you are interested in participating with forecasts or advising on the project: http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/challenges/flare.php 1/4

Real time forecasting methods validation with the Flare Scoreboard

Model questionnaire example

1. Is the forecast human generated, human generated but model based, model based, or other?

2. Does your flare prediction method forecast “M1.0-9.9” or “M and above”? 3. How do you specify active regions in your model? 4. Does your model provide uncertainties for the forecasted probability?

• If yes, what percentiles do you use to determine your upper and lower bound?

5. What prediction window(s) does your method use? 6. Do you have calibration for the probabilities from your model?

• If yes, what is considered a “low”, “medium”, or “high” level?

Information about each model is needed in order to display only comparable methods together. This is gathered during the registration process.

Please see our webpage for a more detailed questionnaire and information on how to register:

http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/challenges/flare.php 2/4

Real time forecasting methods validation with the Flare Scoreboard

Full-disk forecast submission example#File name format: Flare_Forecast_modelname_yyyymmdd_hhmm.txtForecasting method: MAG4Time: 2015-11-25T12:00ZPrediction Window Start Time: 2015-11-25T12:00ZPrediction Window End Time: 2015-11-26T12:00ZProbability Bins: M+Input data: SDO/HMI LOS_MagnetogramPrediction window (hours): 24

#Full Disk Forecast#X_prob X_uncert X_Level M_prob M_uncert M_Level C_prob C_uncert C_Level#0.4000 0.0800 3 0.6800 0.0500 3 0.7500 0.0500 3*_prob: Probability of X, M, or C class flare in decimal format (4 places)*_uncert: Uncertainty in X, M, or C class flare probability in decimal format (4 places) (optional)*_level: Calibration of probability for the model for X, M, or C class flares (1=low, 2=medium, 3=high)

http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/challenges/flare.php

A standardised .txt or .xml file can be automatically uploaded to CCMC via anonymous ftp, or manual form input used. Forecasts are parsed by the system every 6 hours.

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Real time forecasting methods validation with the Flare Scoreboard

4/4http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/challenges/flare.phpShare your ideas with us on how to best display forecasts side by side, or how to combine forecasts: