final traffic presentation
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
TRAFFIC STUDY FOR KARACHI - HYDERABAD MOTORWAY (M9)
ASHAR H. LODI, DIRECTOREXPONENT ENGINEERS (PVT.) LIMITED, KARACHI
JULY 19, 2012
M-9: A TRAFFIC PERSPECTIVE M-9 connects most populous urban centre of
Pakistan to rest of the country, gathering traffic from 2 most active sea ports.
M-9 is one of the most travelled roads in the entire NHA Network, with more than 24,000 vehicles travelling each day.
Most of the road users travel entire length of the highway i.e. 134 km.
A significant number of commuter traffic is available on the road thus making a significant ‘Loyal User Group’ of travellers.
DHA City with more than 500,000 inhabitants is already been announced by DHA lies on M-9.
The only motorway in Pakistan providing shortest way to the travellers between OD Pairs. Thus developing a very large group of captive road users.
Has the largest potential to develop revenues from Non Toll Sources.
TRAFFIC STUDY SCOPE To review previous traffic studies & traffic parameters. To undertake primary data collection by conducting traffic surveys. To identify, review & establish basis of traffic growth in the entire
network in terms of parameters such as socio-economic / land use development datasets, population, vehicle ownership growth within the study corridor;
To validate socio-economic baseline data that are readily available from previous credible sources;
Estimate number of lanes required at new interchanges locations; To review toll rates prevailing on M-9 and other roads of NHA and
corroborate already agreed toll rates with NHA during concession period;
To develop a 4 stage traffic demand model for the study corridor with acceptable level of calibration.
To perform policy testing depicting various possible scenarios of operations using the demand model;
Estimating expected traffic diversion under agreed toll rates;
Model Development Approach
STUDY METHODOLOGY
Steps in Performing Study
Basis for Projection in Financial Model
Determine Future Transport Demand
Perform Policy Testing for future Demand forecast
Utilize OD and Occupancy data for development of current OD matrix
Use traffic volume counts for model calibration
Develop highway network in STRADA
Analysis of processed survey data
Process raw data into spreadsheets
Conduct Field surveys
Prepare survey forms
Prepare survey schedule
Determine types of surveys to be conducted
Conduct Field visit to determine survey locations
Review available Secondary Data
STUDY METHODOLOGY
Mid-Block Count Surveys
Turning Movement Count
Survey
Origin Destination Surveys
Willingness to Pay Surveys
Occupancy Surveys
Travel Time Surveys
Road Condition Surveys
TRAFFIC SURVEYS & ANALYSIS
SL-2
SL-1
SL-8
SL-4
SL-3
SL-6
SL-5
SL-7
SL-9
SL –1 Karachi Northern Bypass Toll Plaza SL –2 Karachi Toll Plaza on Super Highway SL –3 Super Highway at Nooriabad SL –4 Near Hyderabad Toll Plaza on Super Highway SL –5 National Highway near Kotri SL –6 National Highway near Thatta SL –7 Sassi Toll Plaza on National Highway SL –8 Toll Plaza on Super Highway – National Highway Link Road SL –9 New Link Road between Super Highway – National Highway near Airport
SURVEY LOCATIONS
SURVEY LOCATIONS & SPECIFICATIONS
Site ID Location Description
Survey Duration by Survey Types
TMC Mid-BlockPassenger Occupancy
Roadside ODWillingness to
Pay
SL – 1 Karachi Northern Bypass Toll Plaza
-168 hrs - - -
SL – 2Karachi Toll Plaza on Super Highway
-168 hrs 72 hrs 72 hrs 24 hrs
SL – 3Super Highway at Nooriabad
-168 hrs - - -
SL – 4Near Hyderabad Toll Plaza on Super Highway
-
168 hrs 72 hrs 72 hrs 24 hrs
SL – 5 National Highway near Kotri-
72 hrs 72 hrs 72 hrs 24 hrs
SL – 6National Highway near Thatta
-72 hrs 72 hrs 72 hrs 24 hrs
SL – 7Sassi Toll Plaza on National Highway
-168 hrs 72 hrs 72 hrs 24 hrs
SL – 8Toll Plaza on Super Highway – National Highway Link Road
-
72 hrs 72 hrs 72 hrs 24 hrs
SL – 9New Link Road between Super Highway – National Highway near Airport
24 hrs 48 hrs - - -
VEHICLE CLASSIFICATIONS FOR SURVEY
S. No.Vehicle Class
Description Description,If any
1. Class 1 Cars / Vans / Jeeps / Pajero / Suzuki Van / Pickups / Toyota Hilux single/double Cabin / Taxis
2. Class 2 Wagons / Pickups / Shahzor / Master
3. Class 3 Coasters / Mini Trucks / Mazda T-3000 / Mazda T-3500
4. Class 4 Intercity Buses
5. Class 5 Rigid Trucks 2 – 3 Axles
6. Class 6 Articulated Trucks 4 – 5 – 6 Axles
Vehicles used in following Classes for the surveys
MID-BLOCK TRAFFIC COUNTS SURVEYSurvey Form
AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC BY DIRECTION
SITE ID DESCRIPTION DIRECTION ADT
SL-01 Karachi Northern Bypass (KNBP)
From Hub 1,903
From Super Highway 1,960
Both Directions 3,863
SL-02Karachi - Hyderabad Super Highway near Karachi Toll Plaza
From Karachi 10,691
From Hyderabad 11,061
Both Directions 21,752
SL-03 Karachi - Hyderabad Super Highway near Nooriabad
From Karachi 9,769
From Hyderabad 10,864
Both Directions 20,633
SL-04 Karachi - Hyderabad Super Highway near Hyderabad
From Karachi 8,809
From Hyderabad 9,122
Both Directions 17,931
SL-05 National Highway (N-5) near Kotri
From Kotri 1,717
From Super Highway 3,402
Both Directions 5,119
SL-07 Sassi Toll Plaza on National Highway (N-5) From Gharo 4,551From Karachi 4,918Both Directions 9,469
SL-08 Link Road (N-5 - Super Highway)
From National Highway
2,337
From Super Highway 2,927
Both Directions 5,264
SL-09 New Link Road (MalirCantt)
From Malir 3,143
From Super Highway 4,868
Both Directions 8,011
SUMMARY OF SURVEY RESULTSSL-01 (Karachi Northern Bypass)
07:0
0
08:0
0
09:0
0
10:0
0
11:0
0
12:0
0
13:0
0
14:0
0
15:0
0
16:0
0
17:0
0
18:0
0
19:0
0
20:0
0
21:0
0
22:0
0
23:0
0
00:0
0
01:0
0
02:0
0
03:0
0
04:0
0
05:0
0
06:0
0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800SL-01: ADT (PCU) BY HOUR (BOTH DIRECTIONS)
Weekday Weekend 7-dayHourly Time Intervals
VP
H (
PC
U)
07:0
0
08:0
0
09:0
0
10:0
0
11:0
0
12:0
0
13:0
0
14:0
0
15:0
0
16:0
0
17:0
0
18:0
0
19:0
0
20:0
0
21:0
0
22:0
0
23:0
0
00:0
0
01:0
0
02:0
0
03:0
0
04:0
0
05:0
0
06:0
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300ADT- BOTH DIRECTIONS @ SL-01 KNBP
Weekday Weekend 7-dayHourly Time Intervals
VP
H
SUMMARY OF SURVEY RESULTSSL-02 (Super Highway near Karachi Toll Plaza)
51%
3%
10%6%
16%
13%
SL-02: Daily Traffic %age by Vehicle Class (Both Directions)
CLASS 1CLASS 2CLASS 3CLASS 4CLASS 5CLASS 6
SUMMARY OF SURVEY RESULTSSL-02 (Super Highway near Karachi Toll Plaza)
07:0
0
08:0
0
09:0
0
10:0
0
11:0
0
12:0
0
13:0
0
14:0
0
15:0
0
16:0
0
17:0
0
18:0
0
19:0
0
20:0
0
21:0
0
22:0
0
23:0
0
00:0
0
01:0
0
02:0
0
03:0
0
04:0
0
05:0
0
06:0
0
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400SL-02: ADT BY HOUR (BOTH DIRECTIONS)
Weekday Weekend 7-dayHourly Time Intervals
VP
H
07:0
0
08:0
0
09:0
0
10:0
0
11:0
0
12:0
0
13:0
0
14:0
0
15:0
0
16:0
0
17:0
0
18:0
0
19:0
0
20:0
0
21:0
0
22:0
0
23:0
0
00:0
0
01:0
0
02:0
0
03:0
0
04:0
0
05:0
0
06:0
0
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500SL-02: ADT (PCU) BY HOUR (BOTH DIRECTIONS)
Weekday Weekend 7-dayHourly Time Intervals
VP
H (
PC
U)
SUMMARY OF SURVEY RESULTSSL-03 (Super Highway near Nooriabad)
47%
4%
8%7%
16%
18%
SL-03: Daily Traffic %age by Vehicle Class (Both Directions)
CLASS 1CLASS 2CLASS 3CLASS 4CLASS 5CLASS 6
SUMMARY OF SURVEY RESULTSSL-03 (Super Highway near Nooriabad)
07:0
0
08:0
0
09:0
0
10:0
0
11:0
0
12:0
0
13:0
0
14:0
0
15:0
0
16:0
0
17:0
0
18:0
0
19:0
0
20:0
0
21:0
0
22:0
0
23:0
0
00:0
0
01:0
0
02:0
0
03:0
0
04:0
0
05:0
0
06:0
0
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400SL-03: ADT BY HOUR (BOTH DIRECTIONS)
Weekday Weekend 7-dayHourly Time Intervals
VP
H
07:0
0
08:0
0
09:0
0
10:0
0
11:0
0
12:0
0
13:0
0
14:0
0
15:0
0
16:0
0
17:0
0
18:0
0
19:0
0
20:0
0
21:0
0
22:0
0
23:0
0
00:0
0
01:0
0
02:0
0
03:0
0
04:0
0
05:0
0
06:0
0
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500SL-03: ADT (PCU) BY HOUR (BOTH DIRECTIONS)
Weekday Weekend 7-dayHourly Time Intervals
VP
H (
PC
U)
SUMMARY OF SURVEY RESULTSSL-04 (Super Highway near Hyderabad Toll Plaza)
50%
3%5%
8%
19%
16%
SL-4: Daily Traffic %age by Vehicle Class (Both Directions)
CLASS 1CLASS 2CLASS 3CLASS 4CLASS 5CLASS 6
SUMMARY OF SURVEY RESULTSSL-04 (Super Highway near Hyderabad Toll Plaza)
07:0
0
08:0
0
09:0
0
10:0
0
11:0
0
12:0
0
13:0
0
14:0
0
15:0
0
16:0
0
17:0
0
18:0
0
19:0
0
20:0
0
21:0
0
22:0
0
23:0
0
00:0
0
01:0
0
02:0
0
03:0
0
04:0
0
05:0
0
06:0
0
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200SL-04: ADT BY HOUR (BOTH DIRECTIONS)
Weekday Weekend 7-dayHourly Time Intervals
AD
T
07:0
0
08:0
0
09:0
0
10:0
0
11:0
0
12:0
0
13:0
0
14:0
0
15:0
0
16:0
0
17:0
0
18:0
0
19:0
0
20:0
0
21:0
0
22:0
0
23:0
0
00:0
0
01:0
0
02:0
0
03:0
0
04:0
0
05:0
0
06:0
0
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000SL-04: ADT (PCU) BY HOUR (BOTH DIRECTIONS)
Weekday Weekend 7-dayHourly Time Intervals
AD
T (
PC
U)
SUMMARY OF SURVEY RESULTSSL-05 (National Highway near Kotri)
7:0
0
8:0
0
9:0
0
10:0
0
11:0
0
12:0
0
13:0
0
14:0
0
15:0
0
16:0
0
17:0
0
18:0
0
19:0
0
20:0
0
21:0
0
22:0
0
23:0
0
0:0
0
1:0
0
2:0
0
3:0
0
4:0
0
5:0
0
6:0
0
050
100150200250300350400450
SL-05: ADT BY HOUR (BOTH DIRECTIONS)
Weekday Weekend 3-dayHourly Time Intervals
VP
H
07:0
0
08:0
0
09:0
0
10:0
0
11:0
0
12:0
0
13:0
0
14:0
0
15:0
0
16:0
0
17:0
0
18:0
0
19:0
0
20:0
0
21:0
0
22:0
0
23:0
0
00:0
0
01:0
0
02:0
0
03:0
0
04:0
0
05:0
0
06:0
0
0100200300400500600700800900
SL-05: ADT (PCU) BY HOUR (BOTH DIRECTIONS)
Weekday Weekend 3-dayHourly Time Intervals
VP
H (
PC
U)
SUMMARY OF SURVEY RESULTSSL-07 (Sassi Toll Plaza on National Highway)
07:0
0
08:0
0
09:0
0
10:0
0
11:0
0
12:0
0
13:0
0
14:0
0
15:0
0
16:0
0
17:0
0
18:0
0
19:0
0
20:0
0
21:0
0
22:0
0
23:0
0
00:0
0
01:0
0
02:0
0
03:0
0
04:0
0
05:0
0
06:0
0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700SL-07: ADT BY HOUR (BOTH DIRECTIONS)
Weekday Weekend 5-dayHourly Time Intervals
VP
H
07:0
0
08:0
0
09:0
0
10:0
0
11:0
0
12:0
0
13:0
0
14:0
0
15:0
0
16:0
0
17:0
0
18:0
0
19:0
0
20:0
0
21:0
0
22:0
0
23:0
0
00:0
0
01:0
0
02:0
0
03:0
0
04:0
0
05:0
0
06:0
0
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200SL-07: ADT (PCU) BY HOUR (BOTH DIRECTIONS)
Weekday Weekend 5-dayHourly Time Intervals
VP
H (
PC
U)
SUMMARY OF SURVEY RESULTSSL-08 (Link Road B/W Super Highway & National Highway)
07:0
0
08:0
0
09:0
0
10:0
0
11:0
0
12:0
0
13:0
0
14:0
0
15:0
0
16:0
0
17:0
0
18:0
0
19:0
0
20:0
0
21:0
0
22:0
0
23:0
0
00:0
0
01:0
0
02:0
0
03:0
0
04:0
0
05:0
0
06:0
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300SL-08: ADT BY HOUR (BOTH DIRECTIONS)
3-dayHourly Time Intervals
VP
H
07:0
0
08:0
0
09:0
0
10:0
0
11:0
0
12:0
0
13:0
0
14:0
0
15:0
0
16:0
0
17:0
0
18:0
0
19:0
0
20:0
0
21:0
0
22:0
0
23:0
0
00:0
0
01:0
0
02:0
0
03:0
0
04:0
0
05:0
0
06:0
0
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200SL-08: ADT (PCU) BY HOUR (BOTH DIRECTIONS)
3-dayHourly Time Intervals
VP
H (
PC
U)
PASSENGER OCCUPANCY SURVEY
Survey Locations
Survey Modes
Site ID Location DescriptionPassenger Occupancy
SL – 2 Karachi Toll Plaza on Super Highway 72 hrs
SL – 4 Near Hyderabad Toll Plaza on Super Highway 72 hrs
SL – 5 National Highway near Kotri 72 hrs
SL – 6 National Highway near Thatta 72 hrs
SL – 7 Sassi Toll Plaza on National Highway 72 hrs
SL – 8Toll Plaza on Super Highway – National Highway Link Road
72 hrs
S. No. Mode of Travel
1 Private Cars
2 Intercity Buses3 Wagons4 Coasters5 Minibuses
PASSENGER OCCUPANCY SURVEYSSurvey Form ( Private Cars)
PASSENGER OCCUPANCY SURVEYSSurvey Form ( Public Transport)
Location DescriptionDirection of
Travel
Mode of Travel
Class 1 Class 2 Class 3 Class 4
SL-02Karachi Toll
Plaza
From Karachi 3.42 11.05 30.00 36.39
Towards Karachi 3.28 8.98 26.09 32.56
SL-04Hyderabad Toll
Plaza
From Karachi 3.16 9.37 11.20 31.32
Towards Karachi 3.16 10.46 27.43 36.51
SL-05National
Highway near Kotri
From Kotri 3.05 8.96 21.86 35.57
From Super Highway 2.36 9.07 10.00 29.35
SL-07Sassi Toll Plaza
on National Highway
From Karachi 3.05 10.11 25.02 43.09
From Gharo 2.69 11.70 23.55 44.04
AVERAGE OCCUPANCY BY CLASS OF TRAVEL
The average occupancy for individual modes across locations and direction of travel are similar
TRAVEL TIME SURVEYS
Survey Results on M-9 (Cars) Survey Results on N-5 (Cars)
Travel time surveys were conducted for passenger car and freight traffic on Super Highway and on National Highway.
S.No.Distance (km)
Travel TimeTravel Speed
From Khi
(mins)
From Hyd
(mins)
From Khi (km/h)
From Hyd
(km/h)
1 0 To 25 20 20 75 75
2 25 To 50 19 19 79 79
3 50 To 75 19 19 79 79
475 To 100 18 19 83 79
5100 To
125 18 19 83 79
6125 To
135 6 7 100 86
Total 135 100 103 83 79
S. No.Distance (km)
Travel TimeTravel Speed
From Khi
(mins)
From Hyd
(mins)
From Khi (km/h)
From Hyd
(km/h)
1 0 To 25 26 23 58 65
2 25 To 50 28 19 54 79
3 50 To 75 18 19 83 79
475 To 100 21 23 71 65
5100 To
125 19 20 79 75
6125 To
150 29 26 52 58
7150 To
175 25 35 60 43
Total 175 166 165 63 64
ORIGIN DESTINATION SURVEYS
OD Survey LocationsSite ID Location Description OD
SL – 2 Karachi Toll Plaza on Super Highway 72 hrs
SL – 4 Near Hyderabad Toll Plaza on Super Highway 72 hrs
SL – 5 National Highway near Kotri 72 hrs
SL – 6* National Highway near Thatta 72 hrs
SL – 7 Sassi Toll Plaza on National Highway 72 hrs
SL – 8Toll Plaza on Super Highway – National Highway Link Road
72 hrs
*Surveys at SL-6 were called off due to the prevailing law & order situation in the area.
ORIGIN DESTINATION SURVEYS
Trip Frequency for Private Transport (M-9)
Trip Frequency by Trip
1 Trip 2 Trips 3 Trips 4 Trips > 5 Trips0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
27% 26%21%
26%
0%
Private TransportTrips / Week
ORIGIN DESTINATION SURVEYS
Trip Frequency for Public Transport (M-9)
Trip Frequency by Trips
1 Trip 2 Trips 3 Trips 4 Trips > 5 Trips0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1% 1% 1% 2%
94%
Public TransportTrips / Month
ORIGIN DESTINATION SURVEYS
Trip Frequency for Light Freight & 2-3 Axle Trucks (M-9)
Trip Frequency by Trips
1 Trip 2 Trips 3 Trips 4 Trips > 5 Trips0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
3%
8%17% 17%
55%
Light Freight & 2,3 AxleTrips / Month
ORIGIN DESTINATION SURVEYS
Trip Frequency for 4-5-6 Axle Trailers (M-9)
Trip Frequency by Trips
1 Trip 2 Trips 3 Trips 4 Trips > 5 Trips0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
3%
16%
38%
22% 20%
4-5-6 AxlesTrips / Month
WILLINGNESS TO PAY SURVEYS
These surveys were performed to estimate potential traffic diversion on the Super Highway
Willingness to Pay Survey Vehicle Categories
Site ID Location DescriptionSurvey
DurationVehicle Categories
SL–02Karachi Toll Plaza on Super Highway
24 hrs Passenger Cars Public Transport Light Freight
Trucks (2 & 3 axle) Trailers (4, 5 & 6 axle)SL–04
Near Hyderabad Toll Plaza on Super Highway
24 hrs
WILLINGNESS TO PAY SURVEYSSurvey Form ( Public Transport)
WILLINGNESS TO PAY SURVEYSSurvey Form ( Private Transport)
WILLINGNESS TO PAY SURVEYSSurvey Form ( Light Freight Transport)
WILLINGNESS TO PAY SURVEYSSurvey Form ( Freight Transport)
ANALYSIS SURVEY RESULTS
Percent Diversion Curve (Super Highway vs M-9)
Percent Diversion Curve (N-5 vs M-9)
POTENTIAL DIVERSIONS
0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.000
20
40
60
80
100
120
f(x) = 321.1929 x³ − 579.5635 x² + 242.1709 x + 71.58624R² = 0.99794513511627
Potential Diversion
Toll (Rs / km)
Div
ers
ion (
%)
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.200
20
40
60
80
100
120
f(x) = 76.9973 x³ − 240.4945 x² + 139.2939 x + 78.40913R² = 0.953369442814861
Potential Diversion
Toll (Rs.)
Div
ers
ion (
%)
DEMAND FORECAST MODELING
The development of a transport model is a key task in Demand Forecast Analysis.
Demand Forecast Modelling provides an analytical tool to estimate traffic being diverted in various years from multiple OD pairs in the influence area.
This also helps in ascertaining parameters like: Locations of potential interchanges Lane requirements for various sections Modal share by road sections Operating parameters (Operating speed, V/C Ratio etc) Traffic being attracted under various toll scenarios & operating
conditions etc.
IMAGE OF FOUR STEP MODELLING
Pro
ductio
n (Pi)
Attraction (Aj) G
1. Trip
Generation
Public TransportMotorcycl
ePrivate car
3. Modal Choice
4. TrafficAssignme
nt
Distribution
2. TripDistributio
n
DEMAND FORECAST MODELLING METHODOLOGY
Existing network
FutureOD Matrix
Socio-economic
Model
Future Framework
CurrentOD Matrix
Master Plan
j
i Tij
Number of trips traveling from zone i
to zone j
Image of OD matrix and Network
OD MATRIX
i j
42
STRUCTURE OF OD MATRIX
i
j
Pro
ductio
n (Pi)
Attraction (Aj) G
Tij
i
iji TP
i
ijj TA
i j
ijTG
j
ji
i AP
T ij
Tii
i=j Intra-zonal trip
i<>j Inter-zonal trip
COMPONENTS OF CURRENT OD MATRIX
OD MATRIX
Interview Data
Volume Data
Occupancy Data
Establishing of Current OD matrix
Occupancy data was processed mode wise to ascertain average occupancies.
Passengers travelling are calculated by incorporating average occupancies with volume.
Using interview data and persons travelling expansion factors were developed.
These expansion factors are further applied to interview data to expand the data set to realistic level and to form an expanded OD matrix.
Volume Data
Occupancy Data
Total Pax
Expansion Factor
Pax Interview
Data
Expanded OD
TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONESThe total TAZ considered for this study consists of 24 zones covering entire area between Karachi and Hyderabad both through Super Highway and National highway.
There were 19 internal zones (for traffic between M-9 & N-5) and 5 external zones (for beyond Hyderabad) used for analysis.
TAZ ID NAME
TAZ ID NAME
1Gadap / Hub
13 Nooriabad
2 Kathor 14Between Nooriabad & Hyderabad
3 Pachran Hill 15 Kotri4 Karachi 16 Hyderabad
5 Steel Town 17Tando Muhammad Khan
6 DHA City 18 Makli
7Lucky Cement
19 Mir pur Bathoro
8 Jung Shahi 20 Rest of Sindh9 Port Qasim 21 Punjab
10 Thatta 22 KPK
11Thano Bulla Khan
23 AJK
12 Jamshoro 24 Baluchistan
NETWORK CALLIBRATIONThe measure of quality of calibration is expressed in terms of Correlation Coefficient (R2) and Root Mean Square Rate (CRMSD).
For the M-9 Karachi Hyderabad Motorway the two parameters yielded acceptable results after several iterations.
These values were found to be 0.95 for R2 and 0.16 for CRMSD.
BASE NETWORK 2012
BASE CASE ASSIGNMENT
Traffic Distribution From KARACHI
Traffic Distribution From Hyderabad
BASE CASE ASSIGNMENT
Traffic Distribution From Steel Town and PQA
Traffic Distribution From Lucky Cement
FUTURE NETWORK DEVELOPMENT Following is a list of Interchanges being
provided by the client as per their preliminary design.S. No
Interchange Name
Chainage (Km.)
S. No
Interchange Name Chainage (Km.)
1. Malir Ch 14+985 5. Dada Bhouy Cement Ch 66+936
2. Damba Goth Ch 23+112 6. Thano Bulla Khan Ch 80+952
3. Lucky Cement Ch 45+596 7. Borari Sand Ch 113+440
4. Nooriabad Ch 55+760 -
PERSON TRIP ESTIMATIONS
Temporal Distribution of Person Trips in Future Years
S. No.Vehicle Class
Temporal Distribution of Person Trips
2015 2020 2030 2040
1 Class 1 83,461 97,848 137,549 177,583
2 Class 4 167,601 228,919 439,147 737,132
3Class 3 & 5
24,639 29,753 43,477 63,780
4 Class 6 7,932 9,750 14,757 22,453
Total 285,648 368,290 636,960 1,002,988
PERSON TRIP ESTIMATIONS
Year wise Person Trips Graph
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
f(x) = 544.778190954167 x² − 2180247.67587693 x + 2181560242.91709R² = 0.999881729351366
Years
Pers
on T
rips
FUTURE ASSIGNMENTS
Traffic Assignment for the year 2015
FUTURE ASSIGNMENTS
Traffic Assignment for the year 2020
FUTURE ASSIGNMENTS
Traffic Assignment for the year 2030
FUTURE ASSIGNMENTS
Traffic Assignment for the year 2040
FUTURE PROJECTIONS
Karachi – Kathore Section Temporal Variation of Traffic Volume between Karachi & Kathore
Temporal Variation of Traffic Volume Between Karachi & Kathore Section
FUTURE PROJECTIONS
Kathore – Nooriabad Section Temporal Variation between Katore & Nooriabad Section
Temporal Variation of Traffic Volume Between Kathore & Nooriabad Section
FUTURE PROJECTIONS
Nooriabad - Hyderabad Section Temporal Variation between Nooriabad & Hyderbad Section
Temporal Variation of Traffic Volume Between Kathore & Nooriabad Section
OVERALL GROWTH RATE COMPARISON
Growth Rate Comparison
POTENTIAL OF NTR
M-9 has an immense potential revenues from Non Toll Sources.
The more the NTR the less would be the burden on Toll Revenues.
All major projects around the world also heavily relies on NTR for e.g. Delhi Metro Generates 54% of its gross revenues from NTR. IN Singapore Metro Rail NTR is 60%etc.
The potential sources for NTR could be following: Advertising on street light poles Hoarding signs along the road and on interchanges Rentals from existing & future fuelling stations Rentals from existing & future restaurants & rest areas Rentals from existing cables, pipelines, high tension lines and
other underground & overhead utilities
THANK YOU
ANALYSIS SURVEY RESULTS
Percent Diversion Curve for Public Transport (Super Highway vs M-9)
Percent Diversion Curve for Public Transport (N-5 vs M-9)
POTENTIAL DIVERSIONS
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.000
20
40
60
80
100
120
f(x) = − 3.792287 x³ + 30.01411 x² − 88.72584 x + 134.1609R² = 0.962726368259497
Potential Diversion
Toll (Rs.)
Div
ers
ion (
%)
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.000
20
40
60
80
100
120
f(x) = 0.3877157 x³ − 3.638063 x² − 4.702455 x + 102.3103R² = 0.995429216899258
Potential Diversion
Toll (Rs.)
Div
ers
ion (
%)
ANALYSIS SURVEY RESULTS
Percent Diversion Curve for Trucks (Super Highway vs M-9)
Percent Diversion Curve for Trucks (N-5 vs M-9)
POTENTIAL DIVERSIONS
0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.500
20
40
60
80
100
120
f(x) = 1.427464 x³ − 4.914283 x² − 32.12038 x + 122.8862R² = 0.999678878283132
Potential Diversion
Toll (Rs.)
Div
ers
ion (
%)
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.500
20
40
60
80
100
120
f(x) = − 0.818301 x³ + 7.431119 x² − 45.72401 x + 128.0355R² = 0.997962508154501
Potential Diversion
Toll (Rs.)
Div
ers
ion (
%)
ANALYSIS SURVEY RESULTS
Percent Diversion Curve for Trailers (Super Highway vs M-9)
Percent Diversion Curve for Trailers (N-5 vs M-9)
POTENTIAL DIVERSIONS
1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.500
20
40
60
80
100
120
f(x) = − 1.94211 x³ + 26.84247 x² − 126.5976 x + 222.429R² = 0.999602668454172
Potential Diversion
Toll (Rs.)
Div
ers
ion (
%)
1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.500
20
40
60
80
100
120
f(x) = 0.427297 x³ − 5.88028 x² + 6.404946 x + 99.60349R² = 0.997941655471513
Potential Diversion
Toll (Rs.)
Div
ers
ion (
%)