fair winds calm seas & sunny skies future trends for lg 2020 annimac / anni macbeth futurist...
TRANSCRIPT
Fair Winds Calm Seas &
Sunny Skies
Future Trends For LG 2020
Annimac / Anni Macbeth
Futurist & Trend Forecaster www.annimac.com.au
2006 Annual LGMA Conference Esplanade Hotel 27 October 2006 Fremantle WA
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 2
Smooth sailing through 2020
It’s not what happens
but how
you deal with
what happens
that makes a
successful journey
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 3
Successful Navigation LG survive the rough seas
identify the best
destination
chart the best course
thrive on the journey
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 4
Few Stormy Squalls Ahead
1. speed of all change
2. Peak Oil
3. climate change
4. demographic pressures
5. shifting politico economic
values
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 5
Squalls are creating for LG
diversity of client demands
changing role of governance
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 6
Decisions
decisions
decisions …
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 7
Navigating the Challenges
1. speed of all change
2. Peak Oil
3. climate change
4. demographic pressures
5. shifting politico economic
values
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 8
Exponential
Amount of change in 1 day
grandparents had in 1 year
Younger means faster
Navigating the Challenges 1 :
Speed of Change
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 9
I’m never having kids. I hear they take nine months to download.
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 10
By 2020
70 % of job types then
do not exist now
because
Driving all Change : Technology
Navigating the Challenge 1 : Speed of Change
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 11
By 2020
80 % technology then
not imagined yet
Navigating the Challenge 1 : Speed of Change
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 12
Imagine
what those
jobs in LG
might be . . .
Navigating the Challenge 1 : Speed of Change
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 13
Your future receptionist ?
Japanese Robanoid 2006
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 14
Likely jobs in next 15 years ? Director of Neighbour
Relations Virtual Parks Manager Planner of Nano Environment Chief Imagination Officer Hacker Relations Manager Virtual Information Librarian Director of Emerging Thought Holographic Traffic Manager
Navigating the Challenge 1 : Speed of Change
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 15
Technology
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 16
Navigating the Challenges
1. speed of all change
2. Peak Oil
3. climate change
4. demographic pressures
5. shifting political economic
values
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 17
Cost
of
fuel
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 18
Navigating the Challenges 2 : Peak Oil
Peak Oil - oil depletion
When demand for oil exceeds
supply
industry experts say by 2010 -
2014
max range by 2007 - 2020
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 19
Peak Oil - depletion forecasts
Navigating the Challenges 2 : Peak Oil
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 20
LG can lead by example
Downsize energy use
Localise - self sufficiency
- trade & barter
Innovate - population migration
- sea/tree changers
- bio/passive fuels
Navigating the Challenges 2 : Peak Oil
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 21
Hybrid Electric Diesel Bus
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 22
Solar Thermal Energy Production
Woking UK
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 23
Navigating the Challenges
1. speed of all change
2. Peak Oil
3. climate change
4. demographic pressures
5. shifting political economic
values
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 24
Trends of Climate Change
Global warming : +2° - +4°
Changing rainfall :
“ Eastern desert moving West
Coastal tropics moving South ”
Navigating the Challenges 3 : Climate Change
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 25
Calling for Help
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 26
LG can lead the way
Adapt planning schemes
Diversity rural zoning
Innovate agri biz
Waterwise incentives
Navigating the Challenges 3 : Climate Change
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 27
Navigating the Challenges
1. speed of all change
2. Peak Oil
3. climate change
4. demographic pressures
5. shifting political economic
values
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 28
Sea / Tree changers ?
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 29
Demographic Changes Trends in Rural WA
Farming communities downsizing
Family farms corporatising Urban encroachment Ageing population Succession : youth issues Women as farm biz managers Slow uptake : tech &
knowledge Sea / tree change
Navigating the Challenges 4 : Demographic Pressures
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 30
Generational gap
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 31
Generational Differences
Gaps widening - technology driven
Baby Boomers 45-60 not handing over
Gen X 30-40 frustrated Me journeys
DotComs 15-30 choosing virtual world
Ferals -15 driving major change
Navigating the Challenges 4 : Demographic Pressures
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 32
New
client
demands
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 33
Clients’ Changing Demands
• personal service
• personal options
• environmental concerns
• social concerns
• ageing population issues
• Q B L quadruple bottom line
Navigating the Challenges 4 : Demographic Pressures
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 34
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 35
LG can lead the way : values Customer driven : community first
Communication skills
Cooperation Teaming
Flexibility eg zoning, management
Innovative thinking
Risk taking
Multi tasking
Navigating the Challenges 4 : Demographic Pressures
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 36
Different Thinking Models
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 37
Navigating the Challenges
1. speed of all change
2. Peak Oil
3. climate change
4. demographic pressures
5. shifting politico economic
values
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 38
Virtual Life
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 39
Public Attitudes shifting
• distrust of leaders
• increased global knowledge
• want options & say
• local power
• faster decisions, less
bureaucracy
• less governance
Navigating the Challenges 5 : Politico Economic Values Shifts
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 40
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 41
Two Tiered Government
• two tiers eventually
• LG gaining relevance
• regional structures less so
• likely trend :
• Federal with decreased powers
• LG with increased powers
Navigating the Challenges 5 : Politico Economic Values Shifts
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 42
Big Biz & Community
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 43
Big Biz vs Community
• corporate social responsibility
rising
• community engagement rising
• QBL values
• partnership model
• win – win – win biz + people +
planet
Navigating the Challenges 5 : Politico Economic Values Shifts
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 44
Albany Highway Williams 2004
Changing agribiz attitudes
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 45
Fair Winds Calm Seas & Sunny Skies
Future for LG 2020
• Increasing role in governance
• Increasing partnerships • biz• community• govt agencies
• Increasing charting of future course
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 46
Facing the future successfully :
27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 47
thank you www. annimac.com.au