Energy

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ESA ANNUAL REPORT 2016

Mr Dariusz KOZAK Euratom Supply Agency Nuclear Fuel Market Observatory Sector

8 June 2017, Luxembourg

Energy

2016 ESA annual survey conducted within EU nuclear energy utilities and their procurement organisations and based on the following data sets: - deliveries of EUP - fuel loaded into reactors - future requirements for natural uranium and separative work - natural uranium deliveries - natural uranium deliveries contracted for future years - conversion services deliveries - separative work units deliveries contracted for future years - level of inventories EU nuclear utilities :

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CEZ EDF & EDF Energy ENBW ENUSA EoNKK EPZ

RWE SLOVELEKT SNN-Nuclearelectrica SYNATOM TVO VATTENFALL

FORTUM IGNALINA KOZLODUY KRSKO Magnox Ltd OKG PAKS

Energy

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U Demand

Energy

Demand of U is driven by - 18 nuclear utilities - 14 EU Members States - 128 EU-based nuclear reactors - According to EUROSTAT EU-28 gross electricity generation amounted to 857.1 TWh (2015) and nuclear gross electricity generation accounted for 26.5 % of total EU-28 production.

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Energy

FRESH FUEL LOADED INTO EU REACTORS

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2015 2016 Change (%) Fuel Loaded (tLEU) 2 230 2 086 -6,5 Enrichment assay (%) 3.82 3.99

Feed

NatU (tU) 16.235 14.856 -8,5

RepU (tU) 303 525 73 tSWU 11 851 11 120 -6,5 Tails assays (%) 0.24 0.23

Demand of U

Energy

MOX FUEL LOADED INTO THE EU REACTORS

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2015 2016 Change (%) MOX Fuel Loaded (kg PU)

10 780 9 012 -16

Savings in NatU (tonnes)

1 050 807 -23

Savings in SWU (tonnes)

742 567 -23

Demand of U

Energy

Natural uranium included in fuel loaded (or equivalent of NatU) by source in 2016

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Demand of U

~10%

Source Quantities (tU) Share (%)

Uranium originating outside the EU 14 636 90.4

Uranium originating in the EU

(approximate annual production) 220 1.4

Reprocessed uranium 525 3.2

Savings from MOX fuel 807 5.0

Total annual requirements 16 188 100

Energy

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URANIUM DELIVERED TO THE EU UTILITIES

Demand of U

2015 2016 Change

(%) Uranium delivered (tU) 15 990 14 325 -10.4

Nr of deliveries 144 138

Long-term contracts (%) 95 97

Spot contracts (%) 5 3

Energy

U contained in fuel loaded and NatU delivered to EU-28 Utilities

in tonnes U

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Demand of U

Energy

EU Future NatU reactor requirements in tonnes of U

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Demand of U

17 683 17 822

14 910

14 027

13 103

14 409 16 249

13 464

12 540 11 693

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0

202

1

202

2

202

3

202

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202

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202

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202

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202

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202

9

203

0

203

1

203

2

203

3

203

4

203

5

2036

ton

nes

Nat

U NatU gross requirements

NatU net requirements

Energy

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Demand of U

EU Future SWU reactor requirements in tonnes of U

14 422 14 457

12 260

11 580

10 799 11 884

13 179

11 460

10 746 10 029

10 000

12 000

14 000

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

20

26

20

27

20

28

20

29

20

30

20

31

20

32

20

33

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34

20

35

20

36

ton

nes

SW

U SWU gross requirements

SWU net requirements

Energy

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• Future Demand of U

EU and worldwide up to 2030

• EU U average net requirements from 2017 to 2026 account for 14 333 tU/year and 12 344 tU/year from 2027 to 2036

• whereas global demand is increasing rapidly

• EU Share of Global U Demand falls from 22.0% in 2016 to 13.8% in 2030

2016 2020 2030

EU Demand 14 325 15 346 12 525

Global Demand* 65 220 74 296 90 514

EU Share% 22.0% 20.6% 13.8%

Sources: ESA Annual Report 2016 and (*) WNA Market Report 2015, Demand reference scenario

Demand of U

Energy

U Supply

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Energy

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Natural uranium deliveries to the EU by origin in 2016

Supply of U

22,0%

20,6%

19,3%

15,8%

13,2%

3,5%

1,5% 1,5%

0,9% 0,9%

0,8%

Niger

Canada

Russia

Kazakhstan

Australia

Namibia

EU

Re-enriched tails

Others

United States

Uzbekistan

Energy

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Natural uranium deliveries by region to the EU, 2007-2016

Supply of U

Energy

Uranium Suppliers to EU Utilities in 2016

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Supply of U

17 suppliers

AREVA NC and AREVA NP (formerly Cogéma)

AREVA Mines

BHP Billiton (formerly WMC)

Cameco Inc. USA

Cominak

DIAMO

Itochuint

KazAtomProm

Macquarie Bank Limited, London Branch

NUKEM GmbH

Rio Tinto Marketing Pte Ltd

Tenex (JSC Techsnabexport)

Traxys North America LLC

TVEL

UEM

Uranium One

Urenco Ltd

Energy

U Prices

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Energy

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ESA U Price Indices

• ESA Spot U3O8 price: weighted average of U3O8 prices paid by the EU utilities for U delivered under spot contracts in 2016

• ESA Long-term U3O8 price: weighted average of U3O8 prices paid by the EU utilities for U delivered under long-term contracts with deliveries in 2016

• ESA MAC-3 U3O8 price: weighted average of U3O8 prices paid by the EU utilities for U delivered only under newly signed long-term contracts i.e. signed/amended within the last three years (2014-2016) with deliveries in 2016

U Prices

Energy

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• Deliveries database o made under Nat U or EUP purchasing contracts by EU utilities

during the reference year i.e. 2016

• Currency Conversion

o converted into EUR

o ECB annual average exchange rates

o ECB EUR/USD (2016) = 1.11

• Unit Conversion

o kg U in the chemical form U308, using conventional conversion factors

• ESA average conversion price o If included, deducted to obtain the net natural uranium price

as U308

o ESA Conversion Price (2016) = €9.23/kgU

o ESA Conversion Price is based on the NatU long term contracts

ESA Prices Calculation Methodology

U Prices

Energy

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ESA Spot U3O8 prices

2015 2016 Change (%)

EURO/kgU EURO/kgU EURO/kgU

88.73 88.56 -0.2

$/ lb U3O8 $/ lb U3O8 $/ lb U3O8

37.87 37.71 -0.4

• Based on prices in spot contracts

• 3% of total deliveries

• 8 deliveries

• Based on fixed prices or index-based formulae

• Deliveries accounted for 449 tonnes of uranium

• Widely distributed: 82-101 €/kgU or 35-43 $/lbU3O8

U Prices

Energy

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ESA Long-term U3O8 price

2015 2016 Change (%)

EURO/kgU EURO/kgU EURO/kgU

94.30 86.62 -9

$/ lb U3O8 $/ lb U3O8 $/ lb U3O8

40.24 36.88 -10

• Based on prices in long term contracts

• Contracts signed 8 years earlier on average

• 97% of total deliveries • 130 deliveries • Based on fixed prices or

index-based formulae • Deliveries accounted for

13.877 tonnes of uranium • Data widely scattered • 75% of prices falling into

range: 68-112 € / kgU or 38-48 $/lb U3O8

U Prices

Energy

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ESA ‘MAC-3’ Multiannual U3O8 price

2015 2016 Change (%)

EURO/kgU EURO/kgU EURO/kgU

88.53 87.11 -3

$/ lb U3O8 $/ lb U3O9 $/ lb U3O9

37.78 37.09 -0.2

• 32.5% of total deliveries • 52 deliveries • Deliveries accounted for

4.656 tonnes of uranium • Based on deliveries

made only under newly signed or newly amended multiannual contracts over the last 3 years

• 80 % of prices falling between EUR 67 and 106 € / kgU or 29 – 45 $/lb U3O8

U Prices

Energy

ESA average price indices

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U Prices

Energy

ESA average price indices

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U Prices

Energy

Conversion services

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Energy

Supply of conversion services to the EU utilities in 2016

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Conversion services

Converter Quantity

(tU) % Areva 5 490 39% Rosatom 3 848 27% Cameco 2 265 16% ConverDyn 2 031 14% Others 636 4% 14 269 100%

Energy

Enrichment services

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Energy

Enrichments services deliveries

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Enrichment services

2015 2016 Change (%)

tSWU 12 493 10 775 -13.7

EUP tU 1 989 1 724 -13.3 Uranium

feed tU 16 090 13 481 -16.2 AV

enrichment

assay (%) 4.17 4.09 AV tails

assay (%) 0.24 0.24

Energy

Supplies to EU Utilities

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Enricher Quantities in Share in Quantities in Share in Change

(%)

2015 (tSWU) 2015 (%) 2016 (tSWU) 2016 (%)

AREVA +

URENCO (EU) 7 538 60 7 579 70 1

TENEX/TVEL

(Russia) 4 145 36

2 966 28

-28

USEC (USA) 200 3 110 1 -45

Others 610 1 120 1 -

Total 12 493 100 10 775 100 -14

Enrichment services

Energy

Supply of enrichment services to EU utilities by supplier

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Enrichment services

Energy

Security of supply

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Energy

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SECURITY OF SUPPLY

• Inventories • Diversification of supply • Forward thinking

Energy

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EU Uranium inventories

• cover 3 years of the EU

gross reactor requirements

• the majority of utilities

keep a sufficient quantity of

inventories for at least one

reload

SECURITY OF SUPPLY

Energy

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Nuclear power share of total electricity production in the EU in 2016

SECURITY OF SUPPLY

72%

54%

52%

51%

40%

35%

35%

34%

29%

21%

20%

17%

13%

3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

France

Slovakia

Belgium

Hungary

Sweden

Slovenia

Bulgaria

Finland

Czech Republic

Spain

United Kingdom

Romania

Germany

Netherlands Russian fuel assemblies

Energy

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Long-term contractual coverage for U & SWU, 2017-2025

SECURITY OF SUPPLY

Energy

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Long-term contractual coverage for conversion, 2017-2025

SECURITY OF SUPPLY

Energy

Mr Dariusz KOZAK

EURATOM Supply Agency

e-mail: Dariusz.Kozak@ec.europa.eu

http:/ / ec.europa.eu/ euratom/ index_en.html

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