Energy
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ESA ANNUAL REPORT 2016
Mr Dariusz KOZAK Euratom Supply Agency Nuclear Fuel Market Observatory Sector
8 June 2017, Luxembourg
Energy
2016 ESA annual survey conducted within EU nuclear energy utilities and their procurement organisations and based on the following data sets: - deliveries of EUP - fuel loaded into reactors - future requirements for natural uranium and separative work - natural uranium deliveries - natural uranium deliveries contracted for future years - conversion services deliveries - separative work units deliveries contracted for future years - level of inventories EU nuclear utilities :
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CEZ EDF & EDF Energy ENBW ENUSA EoNKK EPZ
RWE SLOVELEKT SNN-Nuclearelectrica SYNATOM TVO VATTENFALL
FORTUM IGNALINA KOZLODUY KRSKO Magnox Ltd OKG PAKS
Energy
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U Demand
Energy
Demand of U is driven by - 18 nuclear utilities - 14 EU Members States - 128 EU-based nuclear reactors - According to EUROSTAT EU-28 gross electricity generation amounted to 857.1 TWh (2015) and nuclear gross electricity generation accounted for 26.5 % of total EU-28 production.
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Energy
FRESH FUEL LOADED INTO EU REACTORS
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2015 2016 Change (%) Fuel Loaded (tLEU) 2 230 2 086 -6,5 Enrichment assay (%) 3.82 3.99
Feed
NatU (tU) 16.235 14.856 -8,5
RepU (tU) 303 525 73 tSWU 11 851 11 120 -6,5 Tails assays (%) 0.24 0.23
Demand of U
Energy
MOX FUEL LOADED INTO THE EU REACTORS
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2015 2016 Change (%) MOX Fuel Loaded (kg PU)
10 780 9 012 -16
Savings in NatU (tonnes)
1 050 807 -23
Savings in SWU (tonnes)
742 567 -23
Demand of U
Energy
Natural uranium included in fuel loaded (or equivalent of NatU) by source in 2016
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Demand of U
~10%
Source Quantities (tU) Share (%)
Uranium originating outside the EU 14 636 90.4
Uranium originating in the EU
(approximate annual production) 220 1.4
Reprocessed uranium 525 3.2
Savings from MOX fuel 807 5.0
Total annual requirements 16 188 100
Energy
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URANIUM DELIVERED TO THE EU UTILITIES
Demand of U
2015 2016 Change
(%) Uranium delivered (tU) 15 990 14 325 -10.4
Nr of deliveries 144 138
Long-term contracts (%) 95 97
Spot contracts (%) 5 3
Energy
U contained in fuel loaded and NatU delivered to EU-28 Utilities
in tonnes U
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Demand of U
Energy
EU Future NatU reactor requirements in tonnes of U
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Demand of U
17 683 17 822
14 910
14 027
13 103
14 409 16 249
13 464
12 540 11 693
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
202
1
202
2
202
3
202
4
202
5
202
6
202
7
202
8
202
9
203
0
203
1
203
2
203
3
203
4
203
5
2036
ton
nes
Nat
U NatU gross requirements
NatU net requirements
Energy
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Demand of U
EU Future SWU reactor requirements in tonnes of U
14 422 14 457
12 260
11 580
10 799 11 884
13 179
11 460
10 746 10 029
10 000
12 000
14 000
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18
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19
20
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20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
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25
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26
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27
20
28
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29
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30
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31
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32
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33
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35
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ton
nes
SW
U SWU gross requirements
SWU net requirements
Energy
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• Future Demand of U
EU and worldwide up to 2030
• EU U average net requirements from 2017 to 2026 account for 14 333 tU/year and 12 344 tU/year from 2027 to 2036
• whereas global demand is increasing rapidly
• EU Share of Global U Demand falls from 22.0% in 2016 to 13.8% in 2030
2016 2020 2030
EU Demand 14 325 15 346 12 525
Global Demand* 65 220 74 296 90 514
EU Share% 22.0% 20.6% 13.8%
Sources: ESA Annual Report 2016 and (*) WNA Market Report 2015, Demand reference scenario
Demand of U
Energy
U Supply
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Energy
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Natural uranium deliveries to the EU by origin in 2016
Supply of U
22,0%
20,6%
19,3%
15,8%
13,2%
3,5%
1,5% 1,5%
0,9% 0,9%
0,8%
Niger
Canada
Russia
Kazakhstan
Australia
Namibia
EU
Re-enriched tails
Others
United States
Uzbekistan
Energy
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Natural uranium deliveries by region to the EU, 2007-2016
Supply of U
Energy
Uranium Suppliers to EU Utilities in 2016
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Supply of U
17 suppliers
AREVA NC and AREVA NP (formerly Cogéma)
AREVA Mines
BHP Billiton (formerly WMC)
Cameco Inc. USA
Cominak
DIAMO
Itochuint
KazAtomProm
Macquarie Bank Limited, London Branch
NUKEM GmbH
Rio Tinto Marketing Pte Ltd
Tenex (JSC Techsnabexport)
Traxys North America LLC
TVEL
UEM
Uranium One
Urenco Ltd
Energy
U Prices
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Energy
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ESA U Price Indices
• ESA Spot U3O8 price: weighted average of U3O8 prices paid by the EU utilities for U delivered under spot contracts in 2016
• ESA Long-term U3O8 price: weighted average of U3O8 prices paid by the EU utilities for U delivered under long-term contracts with deliveries in 2016
• ESA MAC-3 U3O8 price: weighted average of U3O8 prices paid by the EU utilities for U delivered only under newly signed long-term contracts i.e. signed/amended within the last three years (2014-2016) with deliveries in 2016
U Prices
Energy
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• Deliveries database o made under Nat U or EUP purchasing contracts by EU utilities
during the reference year i.e. 2016
• Currency Conversion
o converted into EUR
o ECB annual average exchange rates
o ECB EUR/USD (2016) = 1.11
• Unit Conversion
o kg U in the chemical form U308, using conventional conversion factors
• ESA average conversion price o If included, deducted to obtain the net natural uranium price
as U308
o ESA Conversion Price (2016) = €9.23/kgU
o ESA Conversion Price is based on the NatU long term contracts
ESA Prices Calculation Methodology
U Prices
Energy
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ESA Spot U3O8 prices
2015 2016 Change (%)
EURO/kgU EURO/kgU EURO/kgU
88.73 88.56 -0.2
$/ lb U3O8 $/ lb U3O8 $/ lb U3O8
37.87 37.71 -0.4
• Based on prices in spot contracts
• 3% of total deliveries
• 8 deliveries
• Based on fixed prices or index-based formulae
• Deliveries accounted for 449 tonnes of uranium
• Widely distributed: 82-101 €/kgU or 35-43 $/lbU3O8
U Prices
Energy
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ESA Long-term U3O8 price
2015 2016 Change (%)
EURO/kgU EURO/kgU EURO/kgU
94.30 86.62 -9
$/ lb U3O8 $/ lb U3O8 $/ lb U3O8
40.24 36.88 -10
• Based on prices in long term contracts
• Contracts signed 8 years earlier on average
• 97% of total deliveries • 130 deliveries • Based on fixed prices or
index-based formulae • Deliveries accounted for
13.877 tonnes of uranium • Data widely scattered • 75% of prices falling into
range: 68-112 € / kgU or 38-48 $/lb U3O8
U Prices
Energy
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ESA ‘MAC-3’ Multiannual U3O8 price
2015 2016 Change (%)
EURO/kgU EURO/kgU EURO/kgU
88.53 87.11 -3
$/ lb U3O8 $/ lb U3O9 $/ lb U3O9
37.78 37.09 -0.2
• 32.5% of total deliveries • 52 deliveries • Deliveries accounted for
4.656 tonnes of uranium • Based on deliveries
made only under newly signed or newly amended multiannual contracts over the last 3 years
• 80 % of prices falling between EUR 67 and 106 € / kgU or 29 – 45 $/lb U3O8
U Prices
Energy
ESA average price indices
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U Prices
Energy
ESA average price indices
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U Prices
Energy
Conversion services
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Energy
Supply of conversion services to the EU utilities in 2016
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Conversion services
Converter Quantity
(tU) % Areva 5 490 39% Rosatom 3 848 27% Cameco 2 265 16% ConverDyn 2 031 14% Others 636 4% 14 269 100%
Energy
Enrichment services
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Energy
Enrichments services deliveries
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Enrichment services
2015 2016 Change (%)
tSWU 12 493 10 775 -13.7
EUP tU 1 989 1 724 -13.3 Uranium
feed tU 16 090 13 481 -16.2 AV
enrichment
assay (%) 4.17 4.09 AV tails
assay (%) 0.24 0.24
Energy
Supplies to EU Utilities
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Enricher Quantities in Share in Quantities in Share in Change
(%)
2015 (tSWU) 2015 (%) 2016 (tSWU) 2016 (%)
AREVA +
URENCO (EU) 7 538 60 7 579 70 1
TENEX/TVEL
(Russia) 4 145 36
2 966 28
-28
USEC (USA) 200 3 110 1 -45
Others 610 1 120 1 -
Total 12 493 100 10 775 100 -14
Enrichment services
Energy
Supply of enrichment services to EU utilities by supplier
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Enrichment services
Energy
Security of supply
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Energy
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SECURITY OF SUPPLY
• Inventories • Diversification of supply • Forward thinking
Energy
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EU Uranium inventories
• cover 3 years of the EU
gross reactor requirements
• the majority of utilities
keep a sufficient quantity of
inventories for at least one
reload
SECURITY OF SUPPLY
Energy
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Nuclear power share of total electricity production in the EU in 2016
SECURITY OF SUPPLY
72%
54%
52%
51%
40%
35%
35%
34%
29%
21%
20%
17%
13%
3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
France
Slovakia
Belgium
Hungary
Sweden
Slovenia
Bulgaria
Finland
Czech Republic
Spain
United Kingdom
Romania
Germany
Netherlands Russian fuel assemblies
Energy
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Long-term contractual coverage for U & SWU, 2017-2025
SECURITY OF SUPPLY
Energy
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Long-term contractual coverage for conversion, 2017-2025
SECURITY OF SUPPLY
Energy
Mr Dariusz KOZAK
EURATOM Supply Agency
e-mail: [email protected]
http:/ / ec.europa.eu/ euratom/ index_en.html
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