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Transition to Renewable Energy until 2030 – 2050 in the EU and Denmark,
INFORSE VisionGunnar Boye Olesen, International Network for Sustainable Energy (INFORSE)Power & Place, Oct. 3, 2009,
Centre for Alternative Technology, Waleshttp://www.inforse.org/europe/seminar09_CAT.htm
International Network for Sustainable Energy
• Network of 150 NGOs worldwide, 72 in Europe• Publish Sustainable Energy News• Develop & promote sustainable energy visions• Members cooperate and exchange information• Training with Distance Internet Education for RES• Follow international processes: Climate, IRENA• Follow EU Policies• Supported by EC - DG ENV, Nordic Council &
others
The INFORSE Vision
• Phase out fossil fuel and nuclear power• Provide everybody with basic energy needs
INFORSE Sustainable Energy VisionsGlobal Vision
Vision for EU-27Bulgaria Denmark
Latvia Lithuania Romania Slovakia
UK Zero Carbon BritainBelarusRussia
Ukraine
The Global Vision
Prof. Bent Sørensen, 100% Renewable Energy Scenario, Low Energy Consumption Scen. 1999
Energy Services per capitaIndustrialised countries Developing countries.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2000 2050 2000 2050
Transport
El.+mechanical
Medium+high t.
Low temp.
Primary Energy (TWh/y)Industrialised countries Developing countries
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2000 2050 2000 2050
Nuclear
Fossil
Biomass
Hydro
Solar
Wind
EU's Challenges in a Global Development Rights Framework
EU-27 Sustainable Energy Vision
Input:Modest increase in energy services, less road transportLarge increase in energy efficiency, factor 4 in end-use sectors when possibleEfficient energy supply with combined heat and power, smarter and more efficient gridsRapid development of renewable energyPhase out of nuclear until 2025
Renewable Energy Supply - EU27 Renewable Energy Supply, EU27
HydroGeothermal
Biomass
Energy ForestBio-fuel, liquid
BiogasWindpower
2000
Solar heatSolar PV
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
20 000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ
Total Primary Energy Supply, EU-27
Other RE
BiomassCoal & waste
Oil products
Natural gas
Nuclear
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ
(tho
usan
dPrimary Energy
25%
Electricity Divided in Supply, EU-27
Hydro
Biomass
Wind
Solar PVFossils
NuclearIm port
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ
INFORSE's EU-27 Vision
Vision for Denmark (OVE)Strong growth in windpower, sust. biomassReduce specific building consumption 39% to '30Reduce specific electricity use, industry 42% to '30 Flexible energy: district heating, heat pumps, electric cars and hydrogenSustainable transport
system, 75% more efficientNo new international
power lines
Development of activities, DK
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Activity compared with 2000, selected sectors
TrainsTotal person transportHousehold areaIndustrial pro-duction in tonsCars
Final energy demand, all energies
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
TransportHouseholdsService sectorsIndustryAgriculture, fishery
PJ
Danish Primary Energy Demand
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Danish Primary Energy Supply
Coal and wasteOlieNaturgasBiomasseVind, sol, bølger, geotermi
PJ
CO2 emissions from energy
• In total 2 t/capita per year in average 2010 – 2049 = sustainable level
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500
10
20
30
40
50
60
CO2 emissions from energy consumption, million tons CO2/år
Danish Renewable Energy
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500
50
100
150
200
250
300
Renewable Energy Supply (PJ)
Solar PVSolar heatWave PowerWind offshoreWind, landGeothermalBiogasBio-fuel, liquidEnergy ForestSolid biomass
Danish Power Supply
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
FossilsWasteSolar PVWave&hydroWindBiomass
PJ
System in balance in 2030
Hourly balances made with Energy Plan programme 1% unused
windpower Existing import/
export lines
RES12 = WindRE34 = wave+PVCHP incl. geothermal
Balance in all SeasonsJanuary, calm July, calm
Thank you
See www.inforse.org/europe
Variations in Power Supply & Heat P.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Kraftvarmeværker, elproduktion 2030, varighedskurve - hele året (MW)
0
500
1000Kraftværker, elproduktion, varighedskurve - hele året (MW)
0
500
1000
1500
2000Varmepumper, elforbrug 2030, varighedskurve - hele året (MW)