eu climate policies by 2030 and · pdf fileeu climate policies by 2030 and beyond . jos...

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EU climate policies by 2030 and beyond

Jos Delbeke

Director-General DG Climate Action - European Commission

University of Macao– 22 May 2014

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Outline 1. International climate issues

• The road to Paris

• Emissions: global and regional

2. EU Climate Change Policy:

• EU climate action until 2020

• New Climate and Energy Framework 2030

3. Conclusions

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Road to Paris (1): UNFCCC broadening global climate action well beyond Kyoto

• Global agreement on staying below 2°Celsius (Copenhagen/Cancun)

• Around 100 countries responsible for > 80% of global GHG emissions made concrete emission pledges (Copenhagen/Cancun), including all major economies

• Growing global action, but fragmented and diverse

3

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Road to Paris (2): Outcomes in Warsaw

1. Progress on 2015 Agreement All Parties to prepare intended nationally determined contributions by the first quarter of 2015 by those Parties ready to do so)"; transparency and clarity

2. Enhancing pre-2020 ambition Agreed technical process, international collaborative initiatives, ratch up ambition, fora for cities and business

3. Climate finance Pathways to deliver US$100 bn; Green Climate Fund to deliver in 2014; Pledges for Adaptation Fund and REDD+

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Road to Paris (3): Negotiator's calendar until end 2014

• 4–15 June Inter-sessional meeting, Bonn (incl. Ministerial meetings)

• 23 September Leaders' Summit, New York

• 1-12 Dec. 2014 - COP/CMP: Lima

http://www.iisd.ca/climate/cop19/enb/images/14nov/4cop20-poster_1326.jpg

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6

the analytics of 2°C: global peak by 2020 and deep cuts by 2050

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CO2 emissions - top 6 countries and the EU

CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel use and cement production in the top 6 emitting countries and the EU. Source: EDGAR 4.2FT2010

2012 emissions - US and EU combined

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Note: In 2012, US and EU combined less than China Source: Oliver JGJ, Janssens-Maenhout G, Muntean M and Peters JAHW (2013), Trends in global CO2 emissions; 2013 Report, The Hague: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; Ispra: Joint Research Centre. http://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/publicaties/pbl-2013-trends-in-global-co2-emissions-2013-report-1148.pdf

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CO2 emissions per capita

CO2 emissions per capita from fossil-fuel use and cement production in the top 6 emitting countries and the EU Source: EDGAR 4.2FT2010 (1990–2010)

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Source: Oliver JGJ, Janssens-Maenhout G, Muntean M and Peters JAHW (2013), Trends in global CO2 emissions; 2013 Report, The Hague: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; Ispra: Joint Research Centre. http://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/publicaties/pbl-2013-trends-in-global-co2-emissions-2013-report-1148.pdf

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4.000

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BY 1990

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EU-28 +IS historic emissions EU-28 projections With Existing Measures

estimated overachievement compared to target 2013-20 Target for the 1st commitment period (2008–2012)

Target for the 2nd commitment period (2013–2020)

CP1 Kyoto Mechanisms

CP1 C.sinks

4.2 GtCO2 eq

1.3 GtCO2 eq

5.5 GtCO2 eq

Potential Overachievement CP2:

Total :

Potential Overachievement CP1:

EU climate action until 2020

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EU cutting GHG emissions while growing the economy

GDP +45%

GHG emissions -18%

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-20%

2084 Mt/yr Gradient: -1.74%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Starting point: 1977 Mt in 2013

1723 Mt

Revision of linear factor until 2025 Inclusion of aviation does not affect cap for stationary installations Disclaimer: figures are only for illustration and do not take into account extended scope as from 2013

EU ETS (1)

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CO2 FROM CARS

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Investments globally increasing rapidly

33%

27%

15%

25% Europe

China

USA

Other

Share of global investment in renewable energy, 2012

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Share renewables in globally newly installed power capacity

Source: UNEP, Global trends in renewable energy investment 2013

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Costs for Renewables:decreasing and becoming competitive

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Costs for solar energy decreased by 80% from 2008-2012 and continue (20% in 2012)

Costs for wind decreased by 29% from 2008-2012

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EU climate action until 2020: Climate finance

• The EU has over-delivered on fast start finance pledge: €7.34 billion 2010-2012

• EU is delivering €5.5 billion for 2013; • EU budget 2014-2020 to mainstream climate

change: >20% of budget must be climate-relevant

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Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) cost-effectively

2050 objective: -80% to -95% GHG

Security of EU energy supplies

EU oil and gas imports: € 400 billion per year

Competitive energy and new growth and jobs

Eco-industry already employs 4.2 million

EU contribution to 2015 international climate

agreement

EU 2030 framework: Why a new one?

Presenter

Presentation Notes

It is now time to reflect on the policy framework we need for 2030. In line with stakeholders' responses to the Green Paper, there is a need to continue to drive progress towards a low-carbon economy. We need to make an ambitious commitment to reduce further greenhouse gas emissions building on the 2050 roadmaps. Delivery of this commitment should follow a cost-efficient approach which responds to the challenges of affordability, competitiveness, security of supply and sustainability, and which takes account of current economic and political circumstances. Secondly, we should provide greater security of energy supplies for the Union as a whole. Security of energy supply over the period to 2030 should be understood as ensuring continuous and adequate supply of all energy sources to all energy users. As regards fossil fuels, The International Energy Agency projects an increasing EU reliance on imported oil from around 80% today to more than 90% by 2035. Similarly, gas import dependency is expected to rise from 60% to more than 80%. Rising demand for energy and insufficient competition in energy markets has sustained high commodity prices. In 2012, Europe's oil and gas import bill amounted to more than $500 billion representing some 3.2 % of EU GDP compared to around $220 billion on average in the period 1990-2011. This increases the EU's vulnerability to supply and energy price shocks. Improving energy security should be promoted, while delivering a low-carbon and competitive energy system, through collective action, integrated markets, import diversification, sustainable development of indigenous energy sources, investment in the necessary infrastructure, end-use energy savings and supporting research and innovation. Third, we should ensure competitive energy prices for business, affordable energy prices for consumers, and create new opportunities for growth and jobs. We need to provide regulatory certainty as early as possible for investors in low-carbon technologies spurring research, development and innovation and up-scaling and industrialisation of supply chains for new technologies. This must all be done in a way which takes account of the prevailing economic and political realities and builds on our experience of the current policy framework. Enhancing investor certainty will be possible by providing clear signals now on how the policy framework will change after 2020 and by ensuring that substantial changes to existing objectives and instruments do not take effect before this date. Last but not least we need to make an ambitious commitment to make further greenhouse gas emission reductions in line with the cost-effective pathway described in the 2050 roadmaps, and to do so in time for the upcoming negotiations on an international climate agreement. (COP in Paris 2015) PS. The Commission sees no merit in proposing a higher "conditional target" ahead of the international negotiations. Should the outcome of the negotiations warrant a more ambitious target for the Union, this could be balanced by allowing access to international credits. Building on the Commission's Green Paper, this Communication is a further step in the process to arrive at a consensus on a 2030 framework for climate and energy policies.

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A cost-efficient pathway towards 2050

additional investment: +1.5 % GDP annually on average. fuel savings over time of similar magnitude

80% domestic reduction in 2050 is feasible: • With currently

available technologies, • all economic sectors

contribute to a varying degree & pace.

0%

20%

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100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500%

20%

40%

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100%

Current policyPower Sector

Residential & Tertiary

Non CO2 Other Sectors

Industry

Transport

Non CO2 Agriculture

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EU 2030 Framework: The main components

-20 % Greenhouse

Gas Emissions

- 40 % Greenhouse

Gas Emissions

20% Renewable

Energy

20 % Energy

Efficiency

Min 27 %

Renewable Energy

Review 2014

2020

2030 New Key Indicators

New Governance system

Presenter

Presentation Notes

The Commission is proposing a GHG target of [35/40%]. The proposals will set out plans for an EU-wide [binding] RES target, set at a cost-effective level of [25/27%]. A new governance system for the 2030 framework will require Member States to establish national plans for competitive, secure and sustainable energy – including the level of ambition for renewable energy. Aim of these plans is to create more investor certainty, greater transparency, enhance coherence, EU coordination and surveillance Energy efficiency remains central; but next steps to be decided following Energy Efficiency Directive review in 2014.

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Conclusions

• Science is clear • Urgent action is required – mitigation and

adaptation • Less than 20 months to Paris: Ideally, all

countries finalise domestic contributions by 1st quarter 2015.

• EU: growing its economy while reducing its emissions – until 2020 and beyond to 2030

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Thank you !

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