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Environment CanadaCanadian Meteorological Centre

Environnement CanadaCentre météorologique canadien

Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report

Montréal, Canada, May 26-28, 2004

Gilles VernerChief, Data Assimilation and Quality Control

Canadian Meteorological Centre

17th NOAM-Europe Data Exchange Meeting



Outline

• Current status:– Canadian Forecast System

– Telecoms and Computers

– NWP System at CMC

– MSC Observing Networks and Canadian AMDAR

• Changes to NWP System since last meeting– Results from AMSU-B / GOES radiances

– Results from 15-km regional GEM

– Results from new OSE’s

• Future Plans and Requirements for Data

• Part II presented by Godelieve Deblonde



MSC Forecast Offices and Satellite Reception Facilities

Each MSC Officehas a GOES Direct Readout Station.

CMC has 3 GOESReadout Stations.

MSC operates 3 HRPTStations: Halifax, Gander and Edmonton.Data from a non-MSCNorthern station is alsoavailable (Resolute).CMC has DOMSAT system for AVHRR-GAC (TeraScan)



MSC Forecast Offices and Satellite Reception Facilities

Each MSC Officehas a GOES Direct Readout Station.

CMC has 3 GOESReadout Stations.

MSC operates 3 HRPTStations: Halifax, Gander and Edmonton.Data from a non-MSCNorthern station is alsoavailable (Resolute).CMC has DOMSAT system for AVHRR-GAC (TeraScan)

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CMC Computer Center ConfigurationCMC Computer Centre Configuration

2004/03

6x ea

Supercomputing Cluster

SGIO3000's40 PEs

(MIPS R12K)

O2000 4 xR10K PEs

1.2 TB14x SCSIfrom OSS

Climate Archive

HPModel 30 &

60 RAID0.2 TB?

3x

1000 Mb/s switched128ports. Each host has links to

ops & dev net

SGIO300:8 PEs

Central File Server145 TB

4 DST drives20 MB/s ea.

LSI (1 TB 4X FC)

10x FCdual

attach

LSI11TB

Front Ends

FC Hubs 32 ports

Data Acquisition& Distribution

opsnet switched(1000+100+10)

CriticalWorkstations

devnet switched(1000+100+10)

Dev HPpairs

NationalProduct

DistributionServerMC/SG

2 x HP K370

SmallerHP pairs

PC's & WksNT/OTServers

2 x o200Monitoring

Servers

routers

8 x Front-End3 x Back-End

2 Data4 Climate

2 x Greenlane

DMZ nets (10)

router

AWWS2xHP

L-series

InternetServers

100 UNIX &150 MSdesktops

3x o200WrkGrpServers

Satnet Tx

PC's, Wks.&

Tandem

F820.05 TB

NASO3000 18 xR14K PEs

ASEPLinuxCluster

17 DL380

IBM SP -928 PE &2.19TB

LSI (8.67 TB FC)

8x



Telecommunications

• GTS link CMC - NWS: upgraded from 64 kbps to T1 during 2003

• Upgrade was done for exchange of NWP model output (for EPS) and Canadian Radar data

• Former NAIL link between Ice Centres (CIS - NIC) removed

• Link UKMO-CMC still active (Meteosat - GMS - GOES)

• Eumetsat - CMC link for EARS

• Internal MSC links upgraded (radar, hrpt, NWP)

• Internet still used for access to Nesdis data; CMC internet access upgraded during 2003 (100 mbps and 2 independent ISP)

• Funding for high speed link (T1+) with Nesdis approved

OPERATIONAL RUNS: MAIN COMPONENTS

GEM modelGlobal (100km) : 0-10/15 days Regional (15km) : 0-48 hoursHIMAP (10km) : 0-24 hours

air quality (CHRONOS)

Environmental EmergencyTransport model (CANERM)

Trajectory model

monthly and seasonalforecasts

global assimilation cycle

3D Var Analysis (data collection and

assimilation)

Models,6-hour forecast

(trial field)

Wave model (WAM)

regional data assimilation

ensemble forecasts(16 members)

surface analysis

CMC Operational Models

Global Model Regional Model• Uniform grid• Resolution of .9º (~100 km)• 28 eta levels• Kuo convection scheme• Sundqvist stratiform scheme• Force-restore surface module with climatogical soil moisture• 10 day forecasts at 00Z and 6 day forecasts at 12Z.• Cut-off of T+3h00

• Variable resolution grid• Resolution of .1375º (~15 km) • 58 eta levels• Kain-Fritsch scheme• Sundqvist stratiform scheme• ISBA surface module with soil moisture pseudo-analysis (error feedback, no data)• 48-hour forecasts (00Z -12Z)• Cut-off of T+1h35

• 3D-Var assimilation on model η levels (T108)• Background errors from 24-48 method• Observations QC with BG check and QC-VAR• GEM model (global, regional, meso)



575 X 641 grid (66% in 15-km uniformarea)

Regionalmodel

CMC Operational Models (cont.)

Mesoscale model Global ensemble

• GEM variable grid (HiMAP)• Resolution of .09º (~10 km) L35• Kain-Fritsch convection scheme• Sundqvist condensation scheme• ISBA surface module• No assimilation cycle (started from 6hr regional)• 30 hour forecasts at 06/18Z

• Perturbed analyses from perturbed assimilation cycles• Resolution of ~150 km (1.2º for GEM and T149 for SEF)• 16 members• Multi model approach with different physics options• 10 day forecasts at 00Z



Observations for 3D-Var analysesTYPE

FORMAT / INSTRUMENT

PLATFORM VARIABLES

Upper-air soundings

• radiosonde

• pilot

• dropsonde

(profiler)

• land stations

• ships

• aircraft (dropsonde)

• temperature

• moisture

• winds

• sfc pressure

Surface observations • synoptic

• land stations

• ships

• fixed buoys

• drifting buoys

• temperature

• moisture

• sfc pressure

• winds (marine)

Satellite • NOAA ATOVS

amsu-a & amsu-b

• circumpolar (NOAA series)

(Aqua, amsu-a) • radiance

• GOES imager• geostationary (GOES-W)

(GOES-E)• radiance

• AMVs

( IR, WV, VI channels)

• geostationary

(GOES-E/W/P, METEOSAT-5/7)

(circumpolar, Terra & Aqua)

• derived winds

Aircrafts• BUFR / AMDAR

• AIREP / ADS

• Aircrafts

(single level & profiles)

• temperature

• winds

Network now completed!



Canadian AMDAR Programme Business Case and Workshop March-April 2000

Canadian AMDAR Program Implementation Team:– TORs (EC, NC, airlines, WMO, NOAA, Sypher)– Canadian AMDAR s/w’s Specifications - enhanced ARINC 620-4– Data Ownership and Process & Communication Studies– AMDAR Data Control System’s Specifications (ongoing)

Completion of DASH-8’s AMDAR s/w by UASC (Unilink)

• Lobbying airlines to join, including major PR actions

Air Canada Jazz began reporting July 2002: 21 Air Nova DASH-8s and 10 CRJs presently reporting data– probable fleet expansion to Air BC and Air Ontario (2004-05), JAZZ now planning ~65

CRJ and 60 DASH-8 by March 2006 reception and processing of data by CMC; C-ADAS software

• Partnering with First Air for an alternative AMDAR system



Canadian AMDAR coverage



Canadian AMDAR coverage - soundings



Monitoring of Canadian AMDAR - DASH-8 Temp.

August 02



Monitoring of Canadian AMDAR - DASH-8 Wind

August 02



Monitoring of Canadian AMDAR - CRJ Wind/TT



Canadian AMDAR - Status

• Current sensor on DASH-8 is flush mounted on wing, next to hydraulic lines (non standard)

• AC Jazz Temp probes to be replaced (2 probes) on forward part of fuselage, should fix the Temp bias problem: target is end of 2004

• Monitoring by CMC helped JAZZ to explain a long standing issue related to their FMS generating unneeded steering commands in light wind situations

• First Air: have selected the NASA TAMDAR system for provision of data, test flight with TAMDAR to occur this Summer

• If evaluation of TAMDAR is conclusive, 8 First Air aircraft to start reporting in early to mid 2005.

• All (good) data to be on GTS: IUAA01 CWAO and IUAB01 CWAO, beginning soon with data from CRJ.



First Air Route (http://www.firstair.ca/images/FA-ROUTE.gif)



Other Canadian observations

• Canadian AMDAR on GTS soon, using BUFR code

• “Synoptic” observations from CTBTO network, using SYNOP MOBIL code, header: SNCN19 CWAO. Observations every 10-min, 10 stations for now but should increase, received at CMC by e-mail.

• Canadian radar data - will be available centrally at CMC, once NRP (National Radar Processor) becomes operational, in about 1 year

• Forestry and Road weather stations in British Columbia - data received at CMC, in old SA format. Data redistribution restrictions currently apply…should eventually be available in BUFR

• Co-operative network in Quebec (Province, Hydro-Quebec, etc), received at CMC, also redistribution restrictions…eventually in BUFR

• Montreal mesonet, including research wind profiler: under installation but operated by Universities, data not yet available and redistribution restrictions may apply…should be provided to USA profiler hub



Changes to CMC NWP System since last meeting

Major conversion to IBM machine during 2003 – completed by January 04

New satellite data, implemented June 19, 2003: AMSUB + GOES• 4 AMSU-B channels (ch 2-5)

• GOES 6.7 micron channel (tested GOES 8/10 but 8 replaced by 12, culd implement GOES-10 only)

• last level of moisture analyses raised from 300 to 70 hPa

• impacts mostly on moisture fields and precipitation

• implementation in global system only, due to IBM conversion

•note: loss of NOAA-17 AMSUA data on October 28, 2003



Average 250 mb (T-Td) analysis increments forAverage 250 mb (T-Td) analysis increments forthe 22 Dec 01 to 31 Jan 02 assimilation periodthe 22 Dec 01 to 31 Jan 02 assimilation period

GOES - CONTROL AMSUB - CONTROL

• AMSUB and GOES have similar average (quite large!!) corrections at 250 mb for T-Td



ATOVS available for Reg ATOVS available for GlobATOVS available for Reg ATOVS available for Glob

GOES available for RegGOES available for Reg



AMSU-B+GOES OPE

Results:48h forecast verification

over S. HemisphereAug-Sep 2002



Verification of 24-48 hr

precipitation NOAM

Dec 02-Jan 03



Cross Validation with SSM/I - IWV



Operational WMO Verification

3D-Var GEM3D-Var levels

TOVS 1d

TOVS 1b

3D-VarT,ps

AMSU-BGOES rad



Changes to CMC NWP System since last meeting

New GEM regional model evaluated in parallel during last 3 months

• MPI code

• 15 km, 58 levels (575 x 641 grid)

• Minimum resolution of 350 km

• Sundqvist condensation scheme

• Kain-Fritsch convection scheme

• Moist TKE (Turbulence en air saturé)

• Ktrans Shallow convection

• Very good results for mass/wind and PCPN

• 8x more cpu than previous regional model (24km, 28 levels)

• Incorporates AMSUB and GOES radiance data (as in global)

• Implemented May 18, 2004



Results Results fromfrom

PAR run:PAR run:Oper 24-Oper 24-

km vs new km vs new 15-km 15-km GEM;GEM;NOAMNOAM

mid-feb to mid-feb to mid-apr mid-apr

0404

GZ500 UV250



Results Results fromfrom

PAR run:PAR run:Oper 24-Oper 24-

km vs new km vs new 15-km 15-km GEM;GEM;NOAMNOAM

mid-feb to mid-feb to mid-apr mid-apr

0404



Implementations planned 2004-05

• Assimilation: new datasets– AMSUA (AQUA), GOES-12, Profilers, MODIS winds Spring 2004– Stratos AMSU-A channels + AMSU-B (raised model top) 2005 +– IR channels (GOES 10-12; METEOSAT, MTSAT and AIRS)– IWV from SSM/I and SSM/IS (eventually from sfc-GPS)– Sfc winds (QuikScat, SSM/IS)

• Global 4D-Var Fall 2004

• Improved GEM Global model Mid 2005

• EnKF (using 3D/4D operators) for EPS and flowdependent statistics Mid 2004



Difference in RMS of 24-hours Forecast errors, verified against Control analyses done with all the observations:

No Polar Winds – Polar Winds exp., 500 hPa wind vector (m/s), 2003110800-2004012512

Impact of MODIS Polar Winds



Anomaly correlation, GZ 500 hPaNorthern Hemisphere: Control, No SAT and NOUA

Winter 02 exp Winter 03 exp

17 dec 01 – 27 jan 02 | 8 nov – 31 dec 03

OSE without AMSUB/GOES

OSE with AMSUB/GOES/MODIS

New OSE’s



Anomaly correlation, GZ 500 hPaSouthern Hemisphere: Control, No SAT and NOUA

17 dec 01 – 27 jan 02 | 8 nov – 31 dec 03






Anomaly correlation, GZ 500 hPaNorth America: Control, No SAT and NOUA

17 dec 01 – 27 jan 02 | 8 nov – 31 dec 03






Global 4D-Var assimilation cycle

• 6h window with 45 min time step.

• 4D data thinning. Spatial data selection is done for each 45 min time bin.

• Incremental analysis performed at T108.

• GEM tangent-linear and adjoint models on 240 x 120 grid.

• 2 outer loops: 40 inner loops : adiabatic physics (vertical diffusion) 30 inner loops : improved physics (SGO, large scale condensation,

convection)



Recent 4D Results: 20 Jun – 28 Aug 03

4D-Var

OPS-3D



Improved Global GEMImproved Global GEM

Numerics / Dynamics

• 800 x 600 x L58 (i.e., 33 km at 49o)

• Timestep of 15 min

• Numerical poles at geographical poles

• 6 horizontal diffusion on momentum variables

• Modified sponge layer at model top

• Filtered orography from USGS

Physics

• Constant thermodynamic roughness over water surfaces

• No vertical smoothing on net radiational fluxes

• Bougeault-Lacarrere mixing length for the vertical diffusion

• MoisTKE for boundary-layer clouds

• Shallow convection with Kuo Transient

• Deep convection with Kain-Fritsch

• Grid-scale condensation with a modified Sundqvist scheme (consun)



Priorities for Satellite Data

• ATOVS: Improved access to Level 1B data (new link with Nesdis), Canadian HRPT data (processing with AAPP) for regional model (cut-off of T+90 min.) and EARS

• SSM/IS

• QuikScat and Envisat (AATSR), both now received, tests underway

• MODIS Products (Winds, SST, LAI, Cloud), winds now tested. A more “operational like” status of NOAA wind product would be very useful.

• METEOSAT and GOES-9 Imagery (MTSAT) (CSR product)

• High Density AMV for GOES9/MTSAT, GOES 9 soon in parallel

• AIRS (assimilation now being tested)

• METOP (IASI,…)

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