Ed Hudson, Operational Forecaster, Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre, Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment

Canada 38 going for 40 years of Service with Environment Canada

Healy 2003 was a highlight of my forecast career.It led to awards…. for seamanship

Hopefully our marine forecasts for Nares Strait are better because of Healy 2003

History - Once upon a time we were hung up on isobars

Why is CATS important to me / to the forecast office where I work ?

1. We provide forecasts that cover the CATS study area2. It brought /brings science and operations together3. I was on the Healy CATS summer 2003 Nares Strait cruise4. CATS is a catalyst for us to improve products5. CATS keep discovering “weather”

Tents blown away in gale to storm force northerly winds

Then the winds came… 13 April 2005, Lafayette Bay

400 m

Wind speed contours (m/s)

Ellesmere Island Greenland

Jets- near Greenland coast - over Greenland

Roger Samelson’s visualization showed jets at about 400 metres

The event prompted us to look at our MSC wind guidance

Prior to 2005, this chart cut off before it made it to Alert. Learning of Humfrey’s planned activity prompted me to get this chart extended northward.

Now to get other operational charts to extend northward.

And to be much more aware of happenings in Nares Strait / the Lincoln Sea The 3 images from the evening 3 May to afternoon 5 May shows the lead that developed north / northeast of Alert as a consequence of a strong southerly flow out of Nares Strait.

For IPY

MSC/Weather Services : Develop and implement forecast plan, define needs and service requirements to support a wide range of IPY activities, including specialized aircraft and marine missions, specialized forecast services to support a potential winter ship based science mission (forecasts not normally provided for winter activities

Develop, test and implement forecast products and weather information products suitable for IPY investigators, pilots, marine operators etc., which would be distributed through a range of means, including Weatheroffice.

Expand what is on the Environment Canada web site http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/canada_e.html

e.g:

- POES satellite imagery of higher resolution, new area mappings, ensure full suite of ir, vis and combo (3u) imagery

- Wind visualizations in color, more areas

- “Weather” visualizations such as precipitation type and precipitation amount mappings, outgoing flux

Create science project web site at Canadian Ice Centre for “products”

+ Alert ↑

Public forecast realm. Prairie and Arctic Storm

Prediction Centre located in Edmonton and Winnipeg April and May this year we did a public forecast for a Lorita ice camp site north of Ellesmere Island.

We had a buoy there so we got continuous temperature information and we got the occasional “person” observation. Human and model need to see a site for awhile to have a chance to do a decent job.

“Public” forecasts for fixed IPY science sites are possible but only for sites that provide us real time feedback (observations)

Aviation forecast realm, Canadian Meteorological Aviation Centre located in Edmonton and Montreal

April and May this year we extended the GFA realm to accommodate the Danish and Canadian scientists working the Lorita area.

“On request” area can be activated and we’re open to going beyond the Canadian boundary

Plan to “update” wind visualizations

- adjust areas

- add new areas

- more color

- get more onto the CIS web site

- get onto http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca

We continue to use the Nares mapping that we started immediately prior to Healy / CATS 2003

Marine forecast realm, Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre located Edmonton and Winnipeg

“Areas” can be activated and we’re open to creating new areas for waters that lie in Canada.

We’re also open to doing forecasts beyond Canadian waters where there are at present there are no marine forecasts. For the past three years, Canadian Ice Centre has provided “forecasts” for CCGS Louis S. St. Laurent operations in the Arctic Basin north of Alaska. CIS has flexibility in their forecast program and in forecast format AND they have an Ice Specialist onboard the Louis S. St Laurent so there is 2-way dialogue about where the ship is and the weather.

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Satellite Imagery: POES facility in Edmonton and we share a facility in Resolute with Fisheries and Oceans

Satellite “mappings” can be created for science projects and ftp’d to them.

Ongoing - For the past few years, a “Nares” mapping has been sent to a site at IOS for Humfrey Melling et al.

During the CASES field period, a “Beaufort mapping was sent to John Hanesiak at the University of Manitoba

Can facilitate buoy mappings with Polar Science Center, University of Washington

“Endeavoring” to improve the POES imagery on http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca

o Flush out existing mappings to include full suite of ir, vis, and 3u (combo) imagery

o Bump up file size (resolution)

o Add mappings

Get the right (meaningful) “weather” products (analysis and forecast) and the right mappings to science

Products and Services that serve safety and effectiveness

o Pre event

o Real time

o Post Event

Satellite imagery

Weather maps

Wind Visualizations – static and movie

Implement NWP high resolution windows for IPY

GRISE FIORD

CAPE FULLERTONKATTINIQ

INUKSHUK

MSC auto stations coming

Not giving up on joint weather sites.

STAR project (CCAF funded) will serve as the initial project to plan (IPY) weather operations in support of science

STAR - STAR is a field-based project that will be based out of Iqaluit, NU, Canada to take place in the autumn of 2007/winter 2008. (STAR field campaign 2007 October 15 to December 10) http://www.starnetwork.ca

The project is concerned with the documentation, better understanding and prediction of meteorological and related hazards in the Arctic including their modification by local topography and land-sea-ice-ocean transitions, their impact on the local communities, and information that may lead to an assessment of hazard frequency assessment relative to a changing climate. A combination of field measurements, high-resolution modeling and remote sensing (including CloudSat) will be used.

Leads - Professor John Hanesiak, Centre for Earth Observation Science, University of Manitoba and Professor Ron Stewart, Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences, McGill University

- satellite mapping

- run small scale model

- onsite operational meteorologist

Canadian Ice Service also plans new products and services to serve IPY science activities.

Specialized ice products to support IPY marine activities and test capabilities to support on-ice science investigations, including development of new ice forecasting expertise.

Specialized ice products designed to assess and mitigate the risk to on-ice research parties and increase the likelihood of success of research projects and include:

o detailed maps of the ice motion in particular research areas over short timeframes (days)o detailed maps of ice openings and ice ridges / rubble fieldso annotated satellite imageso forecasts of ice conditions in particular research areas for several days into the future

 Acquire a baseline of winter Radarsat images to assist with determination of ice conditions and provide improved ice climatology of Canadian waters where investigators will likely work.

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