meteorological service of canada environment canada cloud cover changes and their impacts on solar...

Meteorological Service of CanadaEnvironment Canada

Cloud Cover Changes and Cloud Cover Changes and Their Impacts on Solar Energy Their Impacts on Solar Energy Production in North AmericaProduction in North America

PERD Climate Change Impacts on the Energy Sector (CCIES)PERD Climate Change Impacts on the Energy Sector (CCIES)Mid-term Workshop, Toronto 22-24 January 2003Mid-term Workshop, Toronto 22-24 January 2003

Sunling GongSunling Gong

Air Quality Research BranchAir Quality Research Branch


Solar EnergySolar Energy

• The more the cloud cover, the less the solar energy reaching the surface.

• It can also be influenced by the latitude (seasonally ) and altitude of the spot.


Climate ScenariosClimate Scenarios

• IPCC climate change scenarios:– e.g. CCIS – National Climate Scenarios

facility

– Crude on the impact of anthropogenic aerosols

– Lack of details or regional perspectives

– Local emissions are not well represented.


To provide information on the impacts of climate change on the availability of solar energy in Canada.

1. Establish the scientific tools to study the impact of cloud changes under various climate change scenarios;

2. Investigate the current cloud cover patterns and trends over Canada;

3. Study the impacts of climate change on the availability of solar energy in Canada using the tool developed by taking into account more detailed regional emissions;

ObjectiveObjective


Aerosols and CloudsAerosols and Clouds

• Serve as CCN.

• Redistribute the cloud liquid water cloud radius, albedo.

• Cause a longer life time of cloudscloud cover.

• Change the chemical composition, albedo.

• Quench precipitation hydrology cycles, e.g. less precipitation in Asia.


CAM (Canadian Aerosols Module)CAM (Canadian Aerosols Module)

Meteorological Service of CanadaEnvironment CanadaMeteorological Service of CanadaEnvironment Canada

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NARCMNARCMModel descriptionModel description

• Canadian Regional Climate Model: CRCM

• CGCM physics• Canadian Aerosol

Model (CAM)• Canadian Land

Surface Scheme (CLASS)

• Explicit Cloud Mode – Aerosol-cloud interactions

• Multiple nested grids

• Resolution: 100km• 22 levels• 12 bins, 5 species –

sea-salt, sulphate, BC/OC and soil dust


Experiments and DataExperiments and Data

1. Experiments with/without aerosols are designed;

2. NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data (6h) is used as lateral condition and each experiment is integrated for 2 years;

3. Monthly averaged ISCCP cloud cover data is used for comparison with simulation.


With Aerosols Original RCM

ISCCP Observations


W m-2

With Aerosols

Original RCM


Primary resultsPrimary results• Cloud cover and solar radiation distributions in

North America are more reasonably simulated by NARCM compared with RCM:– When aerosols are taken into account, NARCM can

give a better description of the main characteristics of cloud cover compared with ISCCP data, including pattern and magnitude, and also a reasonable solar radiation distribution in North America;

– RCM considerably overestimated the total cloud cover in North America, especially in northern territory, including Greenland Island and western Atlantic Ocean;


Future workFuture work

(1) NARCM will be run for a few more years to simulate cloud-radiation changes in recent decade.

(2) Under IPCC climate and emission scenario A1, NARCM will be run to simulate the future cloud and radiation change trends.

(3) Investigate the future trends in solar energy availability and provide a map of the future solar energy availability across Canada.

(4) Precipitation changes due to aerosols.

meteorological service of canada environment canada cloud cover changes and their impacts on solar...

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