July 23, 2013

Tokyo

Jane Nakano

Energy Security Situation in Asia

—An American Perspective

World primary energy demand to 2030—China and India account for over 50% of global growth

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

1980 1990 2010 2020 2030

Mto

e

China and India

Rest of non-OECD

OECD

Source: World Energy Outlook 2009

Linkage among Energy, Economic Growth and Population

Fossil Fuels

• Coal remains important part of power generation mix

• General import dependence

• Investments in upstream oil and gas projects overseas

• Indigenous shale gas and oil resources available

Strong Presence of Coal in Asian Energy System

Source: ExxonMobil 2013

Asia’s Oil Import Dependence

Mb/d

(Source: WEO 2012)

North America*

Europe

Asia Pacific

Latin America

Africa

Russia/ Caspian

Middle East

0

5

10

15

201000 TCF

Conventional

Unconventional

0.8

2.6

1.4

1.3

5.6

5.8

3.0

Global Natural Gas Resources

CERA’s estimate for North America resource recently increased to 3000 TCF

Sources: EIA, USGS, NPC; Excludes volumes already produced

•World: ~175 years coverage at 2008 Demand

•Large unconventional gains anticipated

World

Nuclear Energy

• Japanese slow down

• Strong growth in China, India and S. Korea

• Export interest

Renewables

• Important for energy diversity and low-carbon efforts

• Government led efforts vs. commerciality

• Trade frictions?

Share of electricity generation--by source & region

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2035

2010

2035

2010

2035

2010

Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Bioenergy Hydro Wind Solar PV Other renewables

World

OECD

Non-OECD

10 850 TWh

13 300 TWh

10 560 TWh

23 340 TWh

21 410 TWh

36 640 TWh

Cumulative Investment in Renewables Capacity, 2012-2035

0

400

800

1 200

1 600

2 000

2 400

Wind Hydro* Solar PV

Biomass CSP Geo- thermal

Marine

Bill

ion

do

llars

(2

01

1)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6% Non-OECD

OECD

Change in generation share, 2010-2035 (right axis)

Increasing Subsidies for Increasing Renewables

Global renewable subsidies by region

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

2007 2009 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Billion Rest of world

India

China

United States

European Union

Some Key Questions

• Stability in Middle East?

• Energy import dependence on Russia?

• Benefits of U.S. LNG exports?

• Future of Chinese economy and energy consumption?

• Regional concentration of nuclear suppliers and its nonproliferation implications?

Security & Foreign Policy Objectives

Promotes/Supports Sustainable Environment

Defensible Natural

Gas Oil

Energy Efficiency

Nuclear

Renewable Energy

Coal

Economic Objectives

Environmental Objectives

Affordable/Accessible

Supports Economic Growth & Employment

Environmentally Benign

Low/no emissions

Reliable and Secure

Carbon Capture and

Storage

Policy Model