energy future

Energy Future - 20040116

Energy FutureHow Do We Move To A Sustainable Energy World?

B. K. [email protected] for:EE 563, Winter Quarter 2004California Polytechnic State University


Is there an energy issue? A crisis?

What are the dominant concerns?

What are the dominant solutions?

In the context of sustainability …


Outline

What is the context for our energy future?

What are the issues?

What options are best?

What can an EE do about it?


Disclaimer• The speaker has no formal training in energy policy or on

the specific technologies involved• At best, this is a simple, partial thread through a mass of

complex data, ideas, and opinions• The briefing is a “systems engineering view”:

– Try to understand the highest leverage items or trends– Attack the hard stuff and come up with a “good enough” answer

• 50-100 years into the future is a long time or … “It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future” (Yogi Berra).


Reminder

• It’s easy to see the downside, the looming problem• It’s harder to see the innovation and breakthrough

– When there is a need, we are incredibly resourceful in producing solutions

• “They will solve this problem”

They is … us!


Measures

• This briefing will attempt to put energy units into Quads to match up with the approach in Energy Revolution, Geller.– A Quad is 1015 BTU– 1 Million Barrels/Day for a Year Of Oil Is 2.12 Quads– A barrel is 42 gallons– 1 TW.h = 3.6*1015 Joules

• See http://www.neb-one.gc.ca/stats/moreconversions_e.pdf for all kinds of conversions and energy contents.

• For two key points of reference:– The U.S. used 97.3 Quads of oil in 2001 (approximately 70

percent of it came from outside the U.S). (Approx. 3.3 TW)– It is anticipated that the U.S. will use approximately 139 Quads

in 2025 (this is the Energy Information Administration (DOE) “reference” estimate)

http://www.neb-one.gc.ca/stats/moreconversions_e.pdf


Measures

• This briefing will attempt to put energy units into Quads to match up with the approach in Energy Revolution, Geller.– A Quad is 1015 BTU– 1 Million Barrels/Day for a Year Of Oil Is 2.12 Quads– A barrel is 42 gallons– 1 TW.h = 3.6*1015 Joules

• See http://www.neb-one.gc.ca/stats/moreconversions_e.pdf for all kinds of conversions and energy contents.

• For two key points of reference:– The U.S. used 97.3 Quads of oil in 2001 (approximately 70

percent of it came from outside the U.S). (Approx. 3.3 TW)– It is anticipated that the U.S. will use approximately 139 Quads

in 2025 (this is the Energy Information Administration (DOE) “reference” estimate)

Key Numbers To Remember

http://www.neb-one.gc.ca/stats/moreconversions_e.pdf


Major References

• Nathan Lewis, National Academy of Sciences papers.• Energy Information Administration, DoE. www.eia.doe.gov• IPCC* Synthesis Report, 2001, Morrocco.• Wim Turkenberg, Utrecht University, Netherlands. (Talk 2002).• UCEI (www.ucei.berkeley.edu)• Stanford Global Climate and Energy Project, http://

gcep.stanford.edu/• Rist, Curtis, “Why we’ll never run out of oil”, Discover, June 1999• Goodstein, David, Running Out Of Gas, 2004• Yergin, Daniel, “Imagining a $7-a-Gallon Future”, New York

Times, April 4, 2004• The Solar Fraud, Howard C, Hayden, 2001

*Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

http://www.eia.doe.gov/

http://www.ucei.berkeley.edu/

http://gcep.stanford.edu/




Context


Energy Future: Context

• Fossil fuel is plentiful (and inexpensive)– Oil supply is in 10s of years (Lewis*: 40-80)– Gas supply is over 100 years (Lewis: 200-500)– Coal supply is several 100 years (Lewis: 200–2000)

• 85% of the world’s energy is supplied by fossil fuel• No new nuclear energy generation capacity has been

added in decades• Renewable energy sources contribute an extremely small

portion of the overall world requirement• Economic development has been and continues to be

dependent on “cheap energy”– Some correlate population with energy production

*Nathan Lewis reference is cited frequently.


More Facts• 20% of U.S. Oil comes from the Persian Gulf

– 40% comes from OPEC nations; – 70% of U.S. oil from outside the U.S.– U.S. consumes 26% of the world’s total petroleum

• China is next with 10%• Russia uses 7%

• Oil prices:– Peak at $59.41 in 1980 (in 1996 dollars)– Retail energy price of gasoline in Japan ($3.40) and

Germany ($3.35).• Per capita consumption of energy:

– U. S. 342 BTU; Germany/Japan 170; China 30

Source: EIA


Mean Global Energy Consumption, 1998

4.52

2.72.96

0.286

1.21

0.2860.828

0

1

2

3

4

5

TW

Oil Coal Bio NuclearGas Hydro Renew

World Total: 12.8 TW U.S.: 3.3 TW (99 Quads) (10% Electricity) (15% Electricity)

Source: Nathan Lewis.


Energy Reserves

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

(Exa)J

OilRsv

OilRes

GasRsv

GasRes

CoalRsv

CoalRes

Unconv

Conv

Reserves/(1998 Consumption/yr) Resource Base/(1998 Consumption/yr)Oil 40-78 51-151Gas 68-176 207-590Coal 224 2160

Rsv=ReservesRes=Resources



Oil Reserve Decline?

Source ExxonMobil

This graph is based on an Ultimate Recovery of liquids (conventional oil plus natural gas liquids) of 2000 Gb and Non-Conventional oil of 750 Gb. [from Dr. Jean Laherrère, 2000] http://www.hubbertpeak.com/midpoint.htm

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/laherrere/

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/laherrere/


Oil Has No Dominant ProducerWorld Oil Production 2002

(Total Production = 76 M Barrels Per Day)

Mexico, 3,177Oman, 897

Russia, 7,408

Syria, 511

US, 5,746

Norw ay, 2,990

UK, 2,292

North Sea, 5,657 Iran, 3,444

Iraq, 2,023

Kuw ait1, 1,894

Libya, 1,319

Nigeria, 2,118

Qatar, 679

UAE, 2,082

Venezuela , 2,604

Saudi Arabia1, 7,634

Malaysia, 676

Brazil, 1,455

Angola, 896

Colombia, 577 China, 3,390

Ecuador, 390

Algeria, 1,306

Indonesia, 1,267

Other1, 4923.551

Canada, 2,171

Argentina, 757

Australia, 626

Gabon, 294 India, 665

Egypt, 631

Source: EIA


Gas Reserves1.6 - 5 Trillion Barrels Of Oil Equivalent (60 – 180 year supply*)

Russia, 1,700.00

Iran, 939.4

Qatar, 757.7

Saudi Arabia, 228.2

United Arab Emirates, 204.1

United States, 183.5

Algeria, 175

Nigeria, 159

Venezuela, 149.2

Iraq, 112.6

*These reserve numbers come from the Discover Magazine article, cited earlier


Where Does Energy Go?

Use Amount (Quads) Waste (Heat)

Transport 22.2 9.8

Industry 19.4 19.4

Electricity (Generation)

29.2 3.0

Buildings (Heat)

10.6 3.0


(in the U.S. in 1997, cents per kWh)

coal nuclear gas oil wind solar

2.1 ¢ 2.3 ¢3.6 ¢

3.9 ¢5.5 ¢

22 ¢

Nuclear Energy Institute, American Wind Energy Association, American Solar Energy Society

Production Cost of Electricity



Cost of new technologies have declined steeply,

Solar

Wind

Biomass

Natural gas Combined

Cycle

Advanced Coal

Pro

du

ctio

n c

ost

s (E

UR

O19

90/k

Wh

)

0.01

0.1

1

10

Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW)

100 10000 1000000

Electric technologies, EU 1980-1995, Source: IEA


Population Growth to 10 - 11 Billion People in 2050

Per Capita GDP Growthat 1.6% yr-1

Energy consumption perUnit of GDP declinesat 1.0% yr -1

Source: Nathan Lewis


1990: 12 TW 2050: 28 TW

Total Primary Power vs Year Prediction



Issues


Energy Future: Issues

• A high rate of energy consumption has environmental impact– Global Warming is predicted, with a variety of side effects

• Human-induced linkage evidence is mounting– There may be increased potential for sudden, unpredictable

change• Fossil fuel consumption can produce serious direct health side

effects, predominantly respiratory illnesses, mercury poisoning, … .• Some respected forecasters predict a peak of production within 10-20

years (and related “new era economics” dealing with supply/demand)• Key energy producing countries have their own domestic agenda and

issues– May not be a collaborative or predictable supplier

• There is a “Catch-22” problem regarding new technology and infrastructure (i.e. getting investment before a crisis)


A Piece Of The Data Continuum


Mauna Loa "Keeting Graph"

280

290

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1998

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2002

Year

Car

bo

n D

ioxi

de

(pp

mv)

At

July (ppmv)

http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-mlo.htm

The “Keeting Curve”Mauna Loa, CO2 Concentrations

Recent concerns have surfaced about the rate accelerating


A 1000 Year Look At Constituents Of The Earth’s Atmosphere


(BP 1950)

CO

2 C

on

ce

ntr

ati

on

(p

pm

v)

Projected levels of atmospheric CO2 during the next 100 years would be higher than at anytime in the last 440,000 yrs

Projected levels of atmospheric CO2 during the next 100 years would be higher than at anytime in the last 440,000 yrs


The Land and Oceans have warmed

Source: IPCC


Global mean surface temperatures have increased

Source: IPCC


Sea Levels have risen

Source: IPCC


Examples include:

• reduction in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness in summer

• non-polar glacier retreat

• earlier flowering and longer growing and breeding season for plants and animals in the Northern Hemisphere

• poleward and upward (altitudinal) migration of plants, birds, fish and insects; earlier spring migration and later departure of birds in the Northern Hemisphere

• increased incidence of coral bleaching

Changes in temperature have been associated with changes in physical and biological systems


Shrinking Polar Cap: 2002

Satellite data show the area of the Arctic Ocean covered by sea ice in September 2002. This figure shows lower concentrations of ice floes than average for the period 1987-2001 in blue, and higher concentrations in yellow. The lavender line indicates a more typical ice extent (the median for 1987-2001). The white circle at the North Pole is the area not imaged by the satellite sensor.

Source: NSIDC News, http://nsidc.org/seaice/news.html


Mount Kilimanjaro Ice Cap Shrinks: Soot?

• 80% of ice is gone (since 1900); formed 11000 years ago• Scientists (Hansen and Nazarenko) are finding warm winters rather

than warm summers to be the cause• Models tend to show that 25% of warming is caused by soot on

(sometimes very heavy) snow

February 17, 1993February 21, 2000


The IPCC Makes The Case For Human Inducement Of Climate Change

Source: IPCC


Projected concentrations of CO2 during the 21st century are two to four times the pre-industrial level

Source: IPCC

Scientists appear to be focusing on limiting the levels to 2X pre-industrial levels or 550 ppm


Stabilization of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide will require significant emissions reductions

(Target 550 PPM is a general “scientist goal”)


Is there potential for environmental catastrophe?

• Examples:– West Antarctica Ice Sheet Collapse– Rapid species isolation and extinction– Disruption of the themohaline circulation


West Antarctica Ice Sheet Collapse?

• See: http://www.co2science.org/subject/w/summaries/wais.htm

• Most researchers believe this to be very unlikely, but– 5% chance of happening, per study led by British

Antarctic Survey– One meter ocean level rise within a century; 5 meters

over several hundred years.• Similar concerns apply to the ice sheet covering

Greenland.

http://www.co2science.org/subject/w/summaries/wais.htm


Will there be mass extinctions?

• From Nature, January 8, 2004: “Many plant and animal species are unlikely to survive climate change”

• 15–37% of a sample of 1,103 land plants and animals would eventually become extinct as a result of climate changes expected by 2050. – For some of these species there will no

longer be anywhere suitable to live.– Others will be unable to reach places where

the climate is suitable. • A rapid shift to technologies that do not produce

greenhouse gases, combined with carbon sequestration, could save 15–20% of species from extinction.


The themohaline circulation could be disrupted by climate change


The Big Picture

• To stabilize at 550 PPM of C02 (twice the pre-industrial level and one that produces roughly 2-4o C. of temperature rise) would require approx. 20 TW of carbon free power.

• In other words, the projection is that we will need as much as twice as much carbon-free power by 2050 than the total power produced, by all sources, globally, at present.



Long Time Periods Are Required For CO2 Pulse To Be Absorbed

Source: IPCC


Qualitative Impact of A “Carbon Pulse”

Source: IPCC


The cost of compliance increases with lower stabilization levels

Tri

llio

n s o

f U

S$

Source: IPCC


Projected mitigation costs are sensitive to the assumed emissions baseline

Source: IPCC


Political Tipping Points Could Force Accelerated Change

• Examples:– Turbulence in Saudi Arabia or in other major oil

producers players– Terrorism fueled by hopelessness in energy “have

not” countries– China becoming the most powerful energy negotiator– Persistent disruption of key oil pipelines– Terrorist attack on LNG infrastructure– Unexpectedly high costs of recovery after production

peak


Key Oil Produces Have Potentially Unstable Governments

World Oil Production 2002 (Colored By Political Stability (BKR))

Malaysia

Mexico

Oman

Russia

Syria

US

Norw ay

UK

North Sea

AngolaChina

Colombia

Ecuador

Algeria

Indonesia

Iran

Iraq

Kuw ait1

Libya

Nigeria

Qatar

Saudi Arabia1

UAE

Venezuela

Brazil

Egypt

IndiaGabon

AustraliaArgentina

Canada

Other1

Source: EIA (BKR opinion on stability)


The Gap Between Rich And Poor Grows

• Energy is capital intensive– Poor countries do not have the resources– Impact: burn down the forests.– 2 B people rely on primary energy sources (e.g.

wood).– Energy costs in poorer countries range from 12-26

percent (vs a few percent in U.S.) of GDP.• Inequality between rural and urban.

– Good(?) news is that people are moving to urban areas.

Source: Geller


Pollution Effects

• 500,000 deaths are attributed to air quality issues each year.– Earth Policy Institute claims 3M lives lost/yr. (vs 1M lost to traffic

fatalities)– EPI claims 70,000 deaths in U.S./yr. from pollution (vs. 40,000

traffic deaths)• 5% of deaths in urban areas are air quality related.• Almost 290,000 premature deaths each year in China, costing $50B

and 7% of GDP• Ontario estimates that pollution costs $1B in medical/hospital fees

and absenteeism for 11.9M people – Scaled to the U.S. this would be about $30B/yr.

• Mercury poisoning is now part of the public debate because of proposed EPA power plant licensing rule changes.

Source: EPI


Barriers For New Technologies

• Lack of money or financing • Misplaced incentives• Pricing and tax barriers• Political obstacles• Regulatory and utility barriers• Limited supply infrastructure for energy efficient products• Quality problems (new technology doesn’t live up to

claims)• Insufficient information and training


Options


Energy Future: Options(An SE’s Sample Of Topics)

• Options for sources– “Reduced Carbon” fossil fuel– Renewables– Nuclear

• Options for energy transport systems– Hydrogen

• Options for efficiencies– Distributed generation– Spinning reserve

• Options for policies


Energy Future: Options



• Options for sources

– “Reduced Carbon” fossil fuel

– Renewables

– Nuclear

• Options for energy transport systems

– Hydrogen

• Options for efficiencies

– Distributed generation

– Spinning reserve


• Topics:– The importance of

Natural Gas– A solar future– Nuclear?– Tidal?


M. I. Hoffert et. al., Nature, 1998, 395, 881

Carbon Intensity of Energy Mix



LNG

• Worldwide proven reserves of Natural Gas: 5500 T ft3 – 1999 – 84 T ft3 total, worldwide production

• U.S. production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has plateaued.

• New U.S. electric power plants are largely natural gas• Prediction: by 2020, 25% of the world’s energy will be

natural gas• Consumption:

– 1997 LNG – 4 T ft3

– 1999 LNG – 5.4 T ft3 shipped– 2010 LNG – U.S. will go from .5 T ft3 to 2.2 T ft3

Source: Arabicnews.com, 12/19/2003

Energy Future - 20040116http://www.energy.ca.gov/lng/

LNG

http://www.kryopak.com/LNGships.html

LNG requires a heavy infrastructure for cooling and transportation.

This is currently capacity limited.


Coal Gasification And Sequestering

• Great Plains Coal Gasification Plant (North Dakota)• From coal to the equivalent of natural gas• Sequester carbon dioxide into oil fields to assist in

pumping– Oil field operator pays for Carbon Dioxide

http://www.dakotagas.com/

http://www.fe.doe.gov/images/programs/powersystems/gplain1.jpg


Renewable Energy Potential

Source Technical Potential

Biomass 6-15 TW

Wind 2-6 TW

Solar 45-1500 TW

Hydro 1 TW

Marine Nil

Geothermal 150 TW

Source: Turkenburg, Utrecht University

Recall that the world needs 20 TW of carbon-free energy by 2050.



Solar Energy Potential

• Facts:– Theoretical: 1.2x105 TW solar energy potential (1.76

x105 TW striking Earth; 0.30 Global mean albedo)– Practical: ≈ 600 TW solar energy potential of

instantaneous power• 50 TW - 1500 TW depending on land fraction etc.;

WEA 2000• Onshore electricity generation potential of ≈ 60

TW (10% conversion efficiency): – Photosynthesis: 90 TW



Solar Thermal Energy Potential

• Roughly equal global energy use in each major sector:– transportation– residential– transformation – industrial

• World market: 1.6 TW space heating; 0.3 TW hot water; 1.3 TW process heat (solar crop drying: ≈ 0.05 TW)

• Temporal mismatch between source and demand requires storage– (DS) yields high heat production costs: ($0.03-$0.20)/kW-hr– High-T solar thermal: currently lowest cost solar electric source

($0.12-0.18/kW-hr); potential to be competitive with fossil energy in long term, but needs large areas in sunbelt

– Solar-to-electric efficiency 18-20% (research in thermochemical fuels: hydrogen, syn gas, metals)



PV Land Area Requirements For U. S. Energy Independence

• Facts:– U.S. Land Area: 9.1x1012 m2 (incl. Alaska)– Average Insolation: 200 W/m2– 2000 U.S. Primary Power Consumption: 99 Quads=

3.3 TW yr./yr.– 1999 U.S. Electricity Consumption = 0.4 TW

• Conclusions:– 3.3 TW /(2x102 W/m2 x 10% Efficiency) = 1.6x1011 m2

– Requires 1.6x1011 m2/ 9.1x1012 m2 = 1.7% of Land


20 TW

3 TW


PV Land Area Requirements


Corrizo Plain Solar (When Active)


Abandoned PV Site In Carrizo Plains


6 Boxes at 3.3 TW Each


A “Notional” Distribution Of PV “Farms” To Achieve 20 TW of Carbon Free Energy in 2050



How Much Energy Can Be Produced On The Roofs of Houses?

• 7x107 detached single family homes in U.S.– ≈2000 sq ft/roof = 44ft x 44 ft = 13 m x 13 m = 180

m2/home or … 1.2x1010 m2 total roof area• This can (only) supply 0.25 TW, or ≈1/10th of 2000 U.S.

Primary Energy Consumption

• … but this could provide local space heating, surge (daytime) capacity.


SolarBuzz

http://www.solarbuzz.com/


Margolis and Kammen, Science 285, 690 (1999)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

5

10

15

20

25

Effi

cie

ncy

(%

)

Year

crystalline Si

amorphous Sinano TiO2

CIS/CIGSCdTe

Efficiency of Photovoltaic Devices


Sunpower20.4% in

2004


Status Of Solar Photovoltaics

• Current efficiencies of PV modules:– 13-19% for crystaline Silicon– Performance efficiency improvement of 2X is anticipated

• Increase in PV shipments (50MW in 1991; 700 MW in 2003 (compounding at about 30%/yr.))

• Continuous reduction in investment costs up front– Rate of decline is 20%/year– Current cost is $5/Watt; target is $1/Watt (5X)

• Payback time will be reduced from 3-9 years to 1-2 years• Electricity production cost prediction:

– $.30 to $2.50/kWh would be reduced to $.05 - $.25/kWh• Over 500,000 Solar Home Systems have been installed in the last

10 years

Source: Turkenburg, Utrecht University


Nuclear As An Option?

• Nuclear plants do not scale well. – Typically most effective at 1 GWatt

• To produce 10 TW of power …– 10000 new plants over the next 50 years– One every other day, somewhere in the world

• Nuclear remains an option and is re-emerging for consideration (Three Mile Island’s 25th anniversary)

• Fusion power remains as a “great hope”


Tidal

• Very large tidal generation systems have been built or are planned (France, Phillipines (2.2 GWatt))

• Very dependent on specific location geography

• Stingray can be used off-shore to catch general tidal and wave motion

La Rance, France

Dalupiri Ocean Power Plant

Stingray







– Renewables

– Nuclear


– Hydrogen





• Topics:– Hydrogen– Fuel Cells


Hydrogen

• Widely produced in today’s world economy– Steam-methane reformer (SMR) process– Just now, beginning to successfully scale down (e.g.

to be used at “gas stations” in future (100,000 places in U.S,).

Source: NAE Article, The Bridge, “Microgeneration Technology”, 2003


Electrolysis

• Hydrogen can also be made from solar power on electrolysis of water– A liquid, transportable form can be produced

(methanol; (good catalysts exist to do this from CO2 )). This ends up as carbon neutral or CO.

• At bulk power costs of $.03/W electrolysis of water can compete with compressed or liquid H2 (transported)

– Could produce small quantities of H2 to fuel cars, even at the level of a residence


Hydrogen, Again

• Fuel cells using Proton Exchange Membrane have made enormous progress, but are still expensive.

• Hydrogen storage in carbon fiber strengthened aluminum tanks.– Hydride systems and carbon from solar power on

electrolysis of water• A liquid, transportable form can be produced

(methanol; (good catalysts exist to do this from CO2). This ends up as carbon neutral.

• Hydrides appear to be promising as means of storing hydrogen gas


Is there Carbon in Hydrogen?

• If used in a fuel cell, Hydrogen still produces Carbon (Dioxide) because of how it was manufactured:– 145 grams/mile if it comes from natural gas– 436 grams/mile if it comes from grid electricity

• But, for context:– 374 grams/mile if it came from gasoline (no fuel cell)– 370 grams/mile if natural gas had been used directly

(no fuel cell).– 177 grams/mile through hybrid vehicles (no fuel cell;

with natural gas)

Source: Wald, New York Times, 11/12/2003


Fuel Cell TechnologyProton Exchange Membrane

Alkaline Solid Oxide Molten Carbonate

Phosphoric Acid

Operating temperature (oC)

80 80 1000 650 200

Power Density (watts/kg.)

340-1500 35-105 15-20 30-40 120-180

Efficiency (%) 40-60 40-60 45-50 50-57 40-47

Time to Operation

Seconds Minutes Hours (10) Hours (10) Hours (2)

Platinum Used

Yes No No No No

Issues Cost, stability, maturity

Time, density Time, temp, scale

Time, temp, scale

Time, temp, scale

Fuel Pure H2, Methane, Reformed Methanol

Pure H2 Natural Gas; Syn-Gas

Natural Gas; Syn-Gas

Reformed Natural Gas.

Source: CETC


Fuel Cell Power Generation Is Emerging

Source: Ballard







– Renewables

– Nuclear


– Hydrogen





• Topics:– Distributed Power

Generation– Spinning capacity


Microgeneration Technology(Distributed Generation)

• 7% of the world’s energy is generated on a distributed basis– In some countries this is up to 50%

• Generate power close to the load– 10 – 1000 kW (traditional power plants are 100 – 1000 MW)

• Internal Combustion, Turbine, Stirling Cycle (with efficiencies approaching 40%), Solid-oxide fuel cells (over 40% efficiency), Wind Turbines, PV

– Modular (support incremental additions of capacity)– Low(er) capital cost– Waste heat can be captured and used locally via Combined

Heat and Power (CHP) systems• Storage technology is also moving forward to deal with localized

capacity (e.g. zinc-air fuel cell).

Source: NAE Article, The Bridge, “Microgeneration Technology”, 2003


Spinning Reserves From Responsive Loads

• How to avoid significant “reserves” in power generation?• Control both generation and load:

– Historically only generation was controlled– Network technology enables control of load (through

management of numerous small resources)

Source: Oak Ridge Research Report, March 2003.


Spinning Reserve From Responsive Loads(Smart Energy)

Carrier ComfortChoice themostatsprovide significant monitoring capability

- Hourly data- No. of minutes of compressor/heater operation- No. of starts- Average temperature- Hour end temperature trend- Event data- Accurate signal receipt and control action time

stamp


Conservation

• Hybrid Vehicles• Space heating• Water heating• Co-generation


Energy Future: Options(Policies)





– Renewables

– Nuclear


– Hydrogen





• Topics:– Taxes– Forced Standards– Research and

Development


Energy Future: The EE Role

• Electricity is the future– Most energy sources will come via electricity

• Systems will have to be significantly more efficient, smarter:– More distribution– More connectivity (communication)– More intelligence– More information– More integration– More transparency

• The entire energy infrastructure will have to be changed within 50-100 years

Electrical Engineers will play a critical role in making this transition effective


Conclusions


Conclusions (Mine)• There is an “energy problem” (and a “carbon problem”), an unsustainable

dependence on fossil fuel• Market forces and innovation will play a major role, but are not responsive

enough to deal with mass scale, current low costs of energy, and long time constants– The economic impact of a forced shift from fossil fuels is unacceptable– Policy shifts and long term investment are needed

• Natural Gas to Solar is the most visible path to sustainability, today– Major, near term investment in Natural Gas infrastructure is needed– Cost of a major solar power infrastructure is daunting, but we should

organize ourselves for this eventuality• Hydrogen can/will become an important transport system (start with methane

derived hydrogen and move toward renewable resource driven hydrogen)• Known efficiencies can produce near term gains. E.g., Distributed power (with

co-generation of heat), “smart power”, hybrids• Substantial investment in renewable energy research is justifiable

– Sufficient research is needed to achieve attractive economies of scale


Questions and Comments

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