1. Sustainable Energy lecture for UBC APSC 150 (first-year engineering course) Matthew Klippenstein P.Eng. PMP

2. Where did we come from? Who are we? Where are we going? 3. Where did we come from? Who are we? Where are we going? 4. Where are we going? A sustainable (energy) future Matthew Klippenstein, P.Eng., PMP 2013 Sept 10 5. Apologies to: Biomed Geological Mining 6. Preamble: A very little bit about me 7. I had a great high school chemistry teacher 8. UBC Chem Eng, 1999 a seven-year long, four-year degree notable achievements: handed in assignment on a napkin, after 1998 APEC protests (10/10) convinced Dow CEO to send book to chemical plant, while a co-op 9. Im the king of the world!! Worked at Ballard Power Systems 10. while plotting next move EV commentary for Green Car Reports, Corporate Knights adapting theatre play (staged in Surrey, 2007) into graphic novel 11. Preamble: On intellectual self-defense 12. Dennis Gartman did worse than 98.2% of mutual funds in 2009 and 82% of funds in 2010. His investment newsletter costs $400/month. 13. charisma content 14. raised $850 million; bankrupted Better Place; claims to be electric car visionary 15. For the record, Ive been wrong a lot: thought fuel cells were the future dissed EVs until Chevy Volt announcement figured EV adoption would be as slow as hybrids didnt think solar would get so cheap, so fast renewables driving fossil fuel utilities into death spiral now, not decades from now wind growing way faster than expected turns out utility-scale energy storage may not be needed believed wedve hit peak oil by now didnt anticipate fracking to have as much impact, though decline rates will doom optimists Sierra Clubs anti-coal campaign has been way more successful than I thought would have been possible while Im at it, I thought the Canucks would for sure win the Cup in 2011 and 2012 and 2013 didnt realize quite how much Id have to write, if I kept shrinking the font with each line on this here slide 16. We are guided by our biases: I dont like X X supports Y therefore, I oppose it 17. We are guided by our biases: I dont like David Suzuki Suzuki supports action on climate therefore I oppose it 18. We are guided by our biases: I dont like big corporations they make vaccines therefore, I oppose vaccination 19. Background: we are (a large subset of) the world 20. were insanely successful 21. Global population 7.2 billion humans 25 billion chickens 2 billion pigs 1 billion cattle 1 billion sheep 0.5 billion cats 0.4 billion dogs domesticated animals 0.001 billion whales 0.001 billion bears 0.0005 billion elephants 22. Global population 7.2 billion humans 25 billion chickens 2 billion pigs 1 billion cattle 1 billion sheep 0.5 billion cats 0.4 billion dogs domesticated animals 0.001 billion whales 0.001 billion bears 0.0005 billion elephants 23. 1,000,000 individuals 24. metabolism100 W 10 kW 25. metabolism100 W 10 kW tech etc. 26. metabolism100 W 10 kW tech etc. We are whales 10 kW 27. We are whales metabolism 10 kW Canadian domestic energy consumption 2011 = 10,600 PJ = 10,600,000 TJ 35,000,000 Canadians = 0.3 TJ / person / year = 300 GJ / person / year 365 days / year = 0.8 GJ / person / year = 800 MJ / person / day = 800,000 kJ / person / day 86400 seconds / day = 9 kJ / person / second = 9 kW / person 28. 81% 6% 13% Fossil Nuclear Renewable address this, first and fast, because 29. its a hell of an inheritance 30. besides, global warming is real 31. it runs deep 32. its us 33. and were overachieving our way 34. into a new world. 35. Avoiding CO2 net 12 GT CO2 36. is maddeningly affordable! 37. savings here: insulation (!) efficient cars, appliances LED lights 38. can pay for (almost) all the rest: wind solar etc. 39. Examples in progress Denmark hit Kyoto targets promised about -21% achieved -21.5% Germany too promised -21% achieved -22.4% 40. Examples in progress DuPont cut emissions 72%* since 1990 worlds #1 chemical company Dow achieved 40% worlds #2 this is supposedly impossible, according to Jevons Paradox 41. Contents: A sustainable energy future 42. efficiency: NegaWatts applicable everywhere: CHML, CIVL, CPEN, ELEC, ENPH, ENVE, GEOE, IGEN, MECH, MINE, MTRL 15 lm/W 75 lm/W 43. car efficiency 20% ish driver weight 10% ish net efficiency 2% ish 1000+ Wh to move driver 1 km bike weight near negligible 20-40 Wh to move cyclist 1 km 44. efficiency is the eat less and exercise of sustainability polyurethane foam 45. not fancy, but it gets you there 46. PV-powered Burnaby house (note: we live in a rainforest) 47. but we cant shrink our way there 81% 6% 13% Fossil Nuclear Renewable 48. but we cant shrink our way there 81% 6% 13% Fossil Nuclear Renewable we need to scale, too 49. Goal: cut coal with coal: net 12 GT CO2 4 GT if coal-free 50. without nuclear, which is safe Fukushima: 600 deaths during evacuation 1000 cancer deaths, long-term Chernobyl: 4000 cancer deaths, long-term Coal mining: 1300 deaths, in China in 2012 51. but getting more expensive over time 52. and shuts down in heat waves 2003: France, Germany 2006: France, Germany, Spain, US (Illinois, Michigan) 2007: US (Alabama) 2008: US (Alabama) 2009: France, Germany 2010: US (NJ, Penn, Illinois, GA turned down) 2011: US (Alabama) 2012: US (NY, Penn., South Carolina, Maryland) 53. renewables (mainly wind + solar, for now) will pick up the slack 81% 6% 13% Fossil Nuclear Renewable relatively infinitely big compared to current wind, solar sector almost all hydro 54. renewables (mainly wind, solar) will pick up the slack theyre riding a wave more powerful than Moores Law: 55. the experience curve Each time cumulative volume doubles, value-added costs fall by a constant percentage. An MIT study in 2012 concluded that the experience curve was even more accurate at predicting cost reductions than Moores Law: http://www.forbes.com/sites/jimhandy/2013/03/25/moores-law-vs-wrights-law/ thanks in part to engineers! 56. the experience curve Each time cumulative volume doubles, value-added costs fall by a constant percentage. it occurs relatively everywhere machine tools, electrical operations: 80% aerospace, shipbuilding: 80-85% machining, electronics mfg: 90-95% 57. the experience curve and its been around a long time... 58. the experience curve and its why renewables will scale 59. the experience curve and its why renewables will scale way easier to double production here (renewables) than here (FF, N) 60. Renewables make electricity cheaper they add supply to supply & demand 61. wind energy requires: - civil / structural - computer (modelling, Big Data) - electrical (inverters etc.) - eng phys (most of the above) - environmental (site selection) - mechanical - materials 62. winds experience curve 63. will make it cheaper than FF 64. GEs new turbines achieve 50% capacity factor: costs probably in this range a lot cheaper 65. 440,000 kills (US est.) While turbines do kill birds each year http://www.nature.com/news/the-trouble-with-turbines-an-ill-wind-1.10849#/bird high estimates used for each case 66. 440,000 kills (US est.) 1,000,000,000 kills (US est.) While turbines do kill birds each year its good to keep perspective http://www.nature.com/news/the-trouble-with-turbines-an-ill-wind-1.10849#/bird high estimates used for each case 67. Steven Chu cost curve solar requires: - civil / structural (large arrays) - computer (modelling) - electrical (inverters etc.) - eng phys (most of the above) - environmental (site selection) - mechanical - materials - chemical (silicon & CVD, baby!) 68. Steven Chu cost curve Solar is also following a cost curve http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/RE_Technologies_Cost_Analysis-SOLAR_PV.pdf 69. Steven Chu cost curve Solar is also following a cost curve http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/RE_Technologies_Cost_Analysis-SOLAR_PV.pdf 2013 actual2013 actual (currently ahead of schedule) 70. driven by exponential growth 71. which will eventually slow as costs drop, market grows, sales increase but it gets harder to scale production 72. but not before FF/N utilities face a death spiral 73. Efficiency + renewables 74. cut demand 75. and reduce market prices 76. causing FFN plant closures RWE (#2 German utility) shut 3.1 GW E.On (#1) shut 6.5 GW, might shut 11 GW more RWE CEO: [closed because] wholesale prices have fallen by around a fifth, and the growth of renewables means that the hours that fossil fuel plant operate are being dramatically reduced. 77. and retail rate increases Revenue = Retail Sales x Regulated Price + Market Sales x Market Price 78. Revenue = Retail Sales x Regulated Price + Market Sales x Market Price and retail rate increases 79. Revenue = Retail Sales x Regulated Price + Market Sales x Market Price and retail rate increases to maintain revenues, utilities must raise rates (and/or shut plants to reduce costs) 80. drive efficiency, renewables use. 81. FF/N utilities death spiral more renewables less FF/N demand cheaper wholesale electricity utilities shut plants, raise rates renewables even more attractive 82. Or, as Germans might say, kesseldammerng (death of the kettle) 83. kesseldammerng (kettle reference is because thermal power plants are glorified kettles) 84. TL;DR? translation for non-Reddit users: Too Long; Didnt Read? 85. "Things happen fairly slowly, you know. They do. These waves of technology, you can see them way before they happen, and you just have to choose wisely which ones you're going to surf. 2008 86. one such wave is starting to hit the energy sector 87. Fossil Nuclear Renewable this will change 88. Fossil Nuclear Renewable for the better Fossil Nuclear Renewable 89. because of the experience curve 90. especially if you help it along.