earnings season webinar
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
Are You Making the Most Out of Earnings Season?
Mike BellafioreCo-Founder, SMB Capital
Co-Founder, SMB UAuthor, One Good Trade and The PlayBook
GoalsHow good can you be?
Share some of what we teach our traders
Discuss opportunities 4U to tap into our desk
Answer your questions
Have some fun!
One Good Trade“trading classic”
“the bible of prop trading”
Stocks In Play
FB Historic IPO Trade Review
Stocks In PlaySuper Stocks In Play Webinar
News Catalysts
+/- 3 percent on the Open
Increased relative volume
Strategy• Stocks that can cleanly trend
• Stronger and weaker than the market
• Follow the trend until it ends• Reasons2Sell Webinar
Questions?
Trade Examples from this Earnings Season
• Gold
• Solarso FSLR, SPWR
• AAPL
• CRUS
• VXX
Improving your P&L• Where is your money going to come from?
• Big Ideas?
• Theses + Price Confirmation
Sniper TradingWhen you see it…… strike
Supershort: Failure at Key Levelon Open + Held Bid Drops
KMayTicker: CRUS
Date: Wednesday, April 17, 2013
Big Picture
The market has been unusually volatile over the last several days. SPY dropped precipitously with the crash of gold on Monday, but recovered most of its losses yesterday. However, this morning SPY opened below yesterday's trading activity, and spent much of the day trending lower. This move puts SPY back into the 153.7 – 157 price band that occumpied most of March and early April.
3 month SPY.
Big Picture
Today SPY.
Big Picture
ADV: 2.78 million
ATR: 1.02
FS%: 12.34
β: 0.65
Cirrus Logic, Inc., a fabless semiconductor company, develops signal processing integrated circuits (ICs) for audio and energy markets. A major customer for
Cirrus is Apple.
Long-Term Technicals
Long term chart, annotated.
Trade Management
Today stock snapshot, annotated with execution and possible execution details.
Trade Review
Make it Better: Didn't trade with enough size here. Should have been more aggressive when the original 25c buyer dropped, when 19 dropped, and when the last 33c buyer dropped.
Trade Idea
18.50 and 18 were important levels today. I think there is a good opportunity to make a short trade if CRUS pulls into 18.50, or if it spends time below 18 and turns that support level into resistance.
Sector Play: Hold Below Pre-market Low
GDX
VC
4/15/13
Big PictureThe SPY trended down from 158.00-155.50
Intraday FundamentalsMining stocks are taking a bit of a hiding following
China's slowing GDP growth and the sell-off in precious metals.
ATR: 1.16
ADV: 17.1M
SF%: 8%
At Multi-year lows
30.00 was a very clean defined level in the premarket
Trade IdeaGDX seemed to be the best set up in the premarket so
it was the metal stock I wanted to focus on first. It was supporting 30.50 a few times in the premarket as GLD was falling. When it finally dropped I took the opportunity to begin my short position.
Begin short position as GLD is falling and GDX drops 50c support level
Add when holds below 40c
Cover half into 30.00
Add onto short against 10c when begins to hold below premarket support at 30.00
Cover some into trendline break
Add back on when consolidates below previous support at 80c
Cover most when breaks downtrend and approaches the whole
Flat when makes double botom and then new high above 40c
Trade ReviewIt never held under 30.00 long enough for me to really
size up into the position. I also could have easily been much bigger in the pullback to 80c. Overall though good job holding it throughout the move and feeling comfortable shorting in the premarket
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