early warning and acute food insecurity analysis: …famine early warning systems network 6 two food...

Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Early warning and Acute food insecurity

analysis: introduction to CH process

Nigeria CH Foundational Training

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

1

Overview

What is early warning?

Some concepts

Guiding principles for acute food insecurity analysis


2

FOOD SECURITY EARLY WARNING AND

DECISION SUPPORT


3

What is early warning and why we need it?

The risk: food insecurity (common working base)

Tools for predicting and assessing food insecurity by providing short-

term information for the development of emergency plans to save

lives through observations collected by various services.

Data collection Analysis Disseminate Response

A set of tools and methods for anticipating the deterioration of

food security - facilitating decision-making


4

Purpose

• To prevent famine and mitigate food insecurity by providing decision makers with information that is accurate, credible, timely, and actionable.

• National structured body to provide timely early warning and vulnerability analysis.


5

What is Food Security ?

“Food security, at the individual, household, national, regional and global levels [is achieved] when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. FAO, 1996

Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. Household food security is the application of this concept to the family level, with individuals within households as the focus of concern. (2001 – 2015)

Food insecurity exists when people do not have adequate physical, social or economic access to food as defined above.


6

Two food insecurity conditions: acute and chronic

Acute food insecurity is any food insecurity found at a

specific point in time of a severity that threatens lives or

livelihoods, or both, regardless of the causes, context or

duration.

Chronic food insecurity is food insecurity that persists over

time mainly due to structural causes. This persistence is

determined based on analysis of conditions under non-

exceptional circumstances (NECs).


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Decision-support implications

Acute food insecurity and chronic food insecurity are not mutually

exclusive. An area or household can experience acute or chronic

food insecurity, or both simultaneously. Recurrent acute food

insecurity is often related to chronic food insecurity in a bi-

directional relationship of cause-and-effect.

To address acute food insecurity it is appropriate to have short-

term strategic objectives.

Chronic food insecurity, however, requires medium- and long-term

strategic objectives to address associated underlying factors.


8

CILSS and partners monitoring initiatives

CH for acute food insecurity and emergency responses

following a shock

CILSS AND PARTNERS ongoing initiative to address chronic

food insecurity that persists due to structural underlying

causes under non-exceptional circumstances (NECs).


9

TERMINOLOGIES AND FRAMEWORK


10

The Disaster Risk Reduction framework (DRR)

RISK = ƒ (Hazard, Vulnerability, Coping Capacity)

Food Security Early warning is a form of disaster risk analysis.

Analysts use the terminology consistent with the internationally

recognized DRR framework to conduct their analysis.

Disaster risk (or the risk of food insecurity) is normally

understood as a function of a hazard and the vulnerability of

the population to the hazards (and, similarly, its adaptive

capacity).


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CH conceptually aligned with the Disaster Risk

Reduction (DRR) framework

RISK = ƒ (Hazard, Vulnerability, Coping Capacity)

Here, we are examining the risk of acute food insecurity for a particular area and population of concern

At this level, we consider the magnitude of likely hazards (for example, drought, above-average staple food prices, an influx of displaced populations)

We use livelihood information to evaluate household vulnerability to the hazards (how will they impact food/income sources?)

We look at how households respond to or cope with the hazards


12

Hazard, vulnerability

Hazard: the probability of occurrence of a potentially

damaging phenomenon - the threat of a stress or

perturbation to a system and its value;

Vulnerability: the degree to which a person, system or unit

is likely to experience harm due to exposure to perturbations

or stresses.


13

What are shocks?

An atypical event or series of events (either rapid or slow-onset)

that will have a significant impact on household food or income

sources or expenditures, either directly or indirectly.

Shocks can also be thought of as anomalies.

Shocks or anomalies expected to occur in the future (during the

analysis period);

Shocks can be positive (eg, a significantly better harvests than

normal) or negative (eg poor harvests or higher food prices).


14

Additional useful concepts

What are food security conditions?

What are food security impacts?

What are food security outcomes?

Why do we care?

Outcomes refer to the final situation faced by households once all conditions, impacts,

coping capacity, and response have been analyzed. Outcomes (e.g. nutritional status)

describe if households are able to access and utilize the food needed for a healthy life.

Direct and indirect effects of conditions on the food and income sources and

expenditures of households. For example, poor crop conditions will impact demand for

harvest labor, a key source of income for poor households.

External circumstances and influences related to food security, including factors such as

seasonal progress, food prices, and labor demand.

1. Unlike the other terms, outcomes are comparable. 2. Using terms correctly helps us

arrive at and pinpoint food security outcomes – what we are ultimately seeking to

determine.


15

Examples of food security conditions

Animal

body

conditions

Market

functioning

Terms of

trade

Milk

availability

Political/

policy

context

Recent crop

production

levels

Labor

demand

Livestock

prices

Wage levels

Trade

context

Remittance

flows Livestock or

crop disease

Crop

conditions


16

Quick recall of the IPC/CH Analytical Framework

Food

security

conditions

Impacts

Outcomes

The weight given to

these 3 outcomes

corresponds to the

degree to which they

are related to food

security


17

HOUSEHOLDS RELATED OUTCOMES


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Food consumption outcomes

Primarily looking at diet quantity

Could rely on direct evidence (e.g. outcome indicator), or inferred evidence

(e.g. outcome of livelihoods-based analysis)

Answers these questions:

Are households in the area of concern currently meeting basic food

needs? Why or why not?

How are they meeting basic food needs (if so)? Through seasonally

typical means, such as crop production or purchases? Or through less

common means, such as food aid or atypical selling of productive assets?

Is emergency assistance being delivered in the area of concern? To what

degree is it reducing food and income deficits?

Are households able to afford the expenditures needed to maintain

current livelihoods? (This is a food consumption indicator!)


19

Livelihood change outcomes

Primarily looking at ability to maintain current livelihoods and different

strategies households use to respond to current or expected food consumption

deficits –may include expansion of current livelihoods strategies (e.g.

increasing livestock sales) or new strategies (e.g. sale of agricultural tools).

Answers these questions:

How are people meeting their minimum food and non-food needs?

Through seasonally typical means? Or through less common means, such

as atypical selling of productive assets?


20

Reminder - livelihoods outcomes must be related to

food security

• Outcomes of livelihoods change should

NOT include:

• Consumption-based strategies (e.g.

reducing number of meals or portion

size, shifting to less preferred foods

– these fall under Food Consumption)

• Loss of livelihoods or loss of assets

due to a shock (e.g. loss of livestock

due to conflict)

• Shift in livelihoods for reasons other

than current or expected food

consumption gaps (ie climate

change).


21

Household

Dietary

Diversity

Score

(HDDS)

Food

Consumption

Score

(FCS)

Coping

Strategies

Index

(CSI)

Household

Economy

Approach

(HEA)

Household

Hunger

Scale

(HHS)

Food consumption and livelihood change can be

directly measured…


22

AREA RELATED OUTCOMES


23

Global

Acute

Malnutrition

(GAM)

Crude

Death Rate

(CDR)

Body Mass

Index

(BMI)

Under Five

Death Rate

(U5DR)

As with household level outcomes, acute

malnutrition and mortality rate can be directly

measured….


24

REMEMBER:

For both nutrition and mortality area outcomes, household food consumption deficits must be an explanatory factor in order for that evidence to be used in support of a classification.

We are classifying food insecurity as our outcome NOT nutritional status or mortality

We use a convergence of evidence approach to do this;

Just because levels of acute malnutrition (and mortality) are high does not necessarily mean that the phase of food insecurity must be very high. - Malnutrition levels can be high even if HH food consumption deficits are not there;

We must be aware of background levels of acute malnutrition and underlying causes of malnutrition;

For example, elevated malnutrition due to disease outbreak or lack of health access – if it is determined to not be related to food consumption deficits – should not be used as evidence for an IPC/CH classification.

Similarly, excess mortality rates due to murder or conflict – if they are not related to food consumption deficits – should not be used as evidence for a Phase classification.


25

CONVERGENCE OF EVIDENCE


26

Develop an evidence base for your classification

Outcome

indicator

Summary of Available Evidence

Food

Consumption

FCS: 17% of hh with “poor” or “borderline” FCS

HDDS: 6 food groups compared to 7 food groups last year

Households reported reduced consumption of the main staple, rice,

and above-average reliance on wild food consumption for this

time of year.

Livelihood change • FEWS NET field assessment in July 2015 (last month) reported

normal livelihood activities with no use of atypical coping

• Households report migrating to regional center, although is

seasonally normal

Nutritional status GAM: 15.7%

Mortality CDR: 0.33; U5DR: .97


27

Direct evidence (e.g. HH energy intake, HDDS, rCSI, FCS,

evidence of distressed coping

strategies)

Indirect evidence (e.g. influence of conflict on access to

food, terms of trade)

Food consumption Livelihoods change

How do you make a HH level classification?

The golden rule for analysis and classification:

convergence of evidence


28

Remember, the evidence should converge toward

the phase descriptions


29

Looking for the convergence of evidence

Outcome indicator

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5

Food Consumption

X

Livelihood change X

Nutritional status X

Mortality X

IPC 2.0 Area Phase Classification


30

PHASE 1

Minimal

Households are meeting their basic food and nonfood needs without unsustainable

coping strategies.

PHASE 2

Stressed

Household food consumption is minimally adequate. Households are unable to afford

some essential nonfood expenditures without unsustainable coping strategies.

PHASE 3

Crisis

Households face food consumption gaps or are only meeting minimal food

needs through unsustainable coping strategies.

URGENT

ACTION

REQUIRED

PHASE 4

Emergency

Households face extreme food consumption gaps or are experiencing

extreme loss of livelihood assets that will likely lead to food consumption

gaps.

PHASE 5

Famine

Households have a near complete lack of food and/or other basic needs.

Starvation, death, and destitution are evident1.

! Phase classification would likely be at least one phase worse without

current or programmed humanitarian assistance.

Source: FEWS NET

1 Famine (IPC Phase 5) is defined as the situation in which three conditions are met: at least 20 percent of an area’s population faces an extreme

lack of food, at least 30 percent of children are acutely malnourished, and the crude death rate exceeds 2/10,000/day.


31

GUIDING PRINCIPLES


32

Monitoring, assessment, decision-support


33

Seasonal Calendar

Outlook Period

Source: FEWS NET

APR APR

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR

APR APR

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR

Off-season harvest

Livestock migration S to N

Agricultural lean season

Rainy season

Main season cultivation

Livestock migration N to S

Main harvest

Pastoral lean seasonPeak labor demand

for harvesting

Peak labor demandfor off-season

agriculture

Household labor

migration

Peak labor demandfor weeding and harvesting

Household labor migration


34

Livelihood-based analysis disaggregates food and

income sources by season and by wealth group

Would a spike in staple food prices have the

same impact during this period….. ….as in this period?

Why or why not?


35

Guiding principles for Food security analysis

Classification focuses on food security outcomes

Shocks Impacts Outcomes

• Food crop

production

will be 30

percent

below

normal due

to drought.

• Households will sell 30

percent less grain and will

sell earlier than normal >

Moderate reduction in

income from cereal crop

sales

• Less grain will be

available on the market >

prices to rise by more than

normal starting in Jun-Jul

Response

• Poor households

will increase

reliance on

remittances and

send one

additional house

member to labor in

urban areas

• Poor households in

the SG19 LHZ will

face food deficits of

~25% during the

months of August-

October.


36

CH principles

Institutional anchoring of the CH: lead, ensured by the

coordinating national Food and nutritional information system;

Neutrality during the analysis: neutral, consensual and

inclusive analysis and with the contributions of a maximum of

stakeholders;

Proactive communication of the CH results : To decision

makers, NGOs, Donors, etc.


37

Minimum Standards

Analysts should observe neutrality and be independent-minded

in the quest for consensus.

The following standards are required in CH analysis process:

o The CH analysis team includes all technical stakeholders in

areas related to food and nutrition security;

o All stakeholders must share in full transparency all evidence

they hold and that enables current and projected situation

analysis;


38

Minimum Standards

Analysts have to work together as a team to produce reliable

information that reflect to the maximum extent possible the

reality of food and nutrition situation, based on reliable

evidence and using a participatory, inclusive and consensual

approach.

In some countries, local specific factors (lack of reliable or

updated data, etc.) can prevent the application of all required

standards. In such a case, there is a need to ensure that the

food and nutrition situation analysis conforms to the guidelines

on consensus provided in the CH manual.


39

For More Information

Laouali Ibrahim

West Regional FEWS NET Representative

[email protected]

Tel.: 777-876-494

Dakar, Senegal

To subscribe to FEWS NET’s reports, please visit www.fews.net

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