Bangladesh Current and Projected Acute Food Insecurity Situation Overview 2016-17

National Analysis Partners

IPC Global Partners and Steering Committee Members

With the support of

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Bangladesh Current and Projected Acute Food Insecurity Situation

Overview

National Partners that contributed to the IPC Acute Analysis:

Action Against Hunger (AAH), Bangladesh Missions Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) BRAC BBC Media Action Concern World Wide (CWW) CARE, Bangladesh Department of Livestock Services (DLS), Bangladesh Department of Fisheries (DoF), Bangladesh Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), Bangladesh DanChurchAid (DCA) Food Planning and Monitoring Unit (FPMU) of the Ministry of Food, Bangladesh Food Security Cluster (FSC), Bangladesh Helen Keller International (HKI), Bangladesh International Development Enterprises (IDE), Bangladesh Islamic Relief, Bangladesh (IRB) Muslim AID, Bangladesh Meeting the Undernutrition Challenge (MUCH) Project OXFAM International, Bangladesh Organization for Rural and Nature Oriented Bangladesh (ORNOB). Plan International, Bangladesh Save the Children, Bangladesh Space Research and Remote Sensing Organization (SPARRSO), Bangladesh Solidarités International, Bangladesh United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) United Nations World Food Program (WFP) United Purpose (formally Concern Universal, Bangladesh)

Note: This report presents the main conclusions of the IPC Acute Food Insecurity analysis, which covered 10

districts of Bangladesh: The Current IPC Acute Food Insecurity Situation (June- Nov 2016) for 10 districts and

Projected IPC Acute Food Insecurity Situation (January-April 2017) for 7 districts of Bangladesh.

Contact for Further Information:

Md. Ashikur Rahman, IPC National Coordinator Email: MdAshikur.Rahman@fao.org

Md. Hajiqul Islam, Research Director, FPMU Email: hajiqul.islam@muchbd.org

Nusha Choudhury, IPC Regional Coordinator for Asia E-mail: Nusha.Choudhury@fao.org

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Bangladesh Current and Projected Acute Food Insecurity Situation Overview

Created on: November 2016; Valid until: 30 November 2016

HIGHLIGHTS – Current IPC Acute Food Insecurity Situation for June- Nov 2016 Out of the 10 districts analyzed during the period June to Nov 2016, 5 districts (Barguna, Barisal, Patuakhali, Madaripur and Jessore) are in stressed (Phase 2), 5 districts (Bagerhat, Jhalokati, Bhola, Pirojpur and Satkhira) are in crisis (Phase 3). According to this acute analysis, 2.87 million (17%) people are classified in the acute food insecurity crisis situation and 0.84 million (5%) people are classified in the acute food insecurity emergency situation. The most food insecure populations are located in Jessore, Bhola, and Satkhira districts, respectively.

• FOOD CONSUMPTION: On average 10% of HHs have a borderline and poor food consumption score. In the 5 districts classified in Crisis (Phase 3), in average, 13% of HHs have a borderline and poor Food Consumption. The worst situations are in Pirojpur 21% and Bagerhat 18% accordingly.

• LIVELIHOOD CHANGE: Disaster and Climate statistics 2015, 38% of HHs are vulnerable in 5 crisis districts. 30-45% HHs are involved in day labour where 30-40% HHs are involved in agriculture. More than 90% HHs have not received any remittance. Madaripur receives the highest remittance (11%); while the 5 crisis districts have received only an average of 2-5% of remittance. Average Terms of Trade (ToR) is 12 which is close to national average (12.40). ToT is the lowest (9.72) in Satkhira.

• NUTRITIONAL STATUS: The average Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) is 11% but in 5 crisis phase districts, average Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) is 13%. In the 10 districts, only 31% women consume 5 or more food groups out of 9 food groups. In the 5 crisis districts, the scenario is worse, only 27% women consume 5 or more food groups. According to the body mass index (BMI) for adult women, more than 18% of the women have been suffering from CED (Chronic Energy deficiency/BMI<18.5 kg/m2) in 10 analyzed districts. Within the analyzed districts, the worse scenario in Patuakhali where 28% of the women having CED (BMI<18.5 kg/m2).

• MORTALITY: The National average of U5-MR/ 1000/Year is 36. In regards to this indicator, the scenario is slightly better in 5 crisis phase districts, the average is 32.6 (U5MR/ 1000/Year).

Lack of financial access and poor utilization of food are the major factors driving food insecurity. Nearly one in four households were often worried about where the food would come from. Thirty seven percentages of children (6-23m) consumed a minimum amount of diversified food.

Created on: November 2016; Valid until: 30 April 2017

HIGHLIGHTS - Projected IPC Acute Food Insecurity Situation for January-April 2017

Out of the 10 districts, 7 districts were analyzed for acute projection. Out of the 7 districts analyzed during the projection period (January-April 2017), it is likely that 3 districts (Patuakhali, Pirojpur and Satkhira) will be in stressed (Phase 2) and 4 districts (Bagerhat, Barguna, Jhalokati and Bhola) will be in crisis (Phase 3). Barguna has moved from IPC Phase 2 to Phase 3 with the projected analysis. Two districts - Pirojpur and Satkhira – have improved their status from crisis (current) to stressed phase (projection). According to the projection, 1.74 million (17%) people are classified in the acute food insecurity crisis situation and 0.51 million (5%) people are in the

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acute food insecurity emergency situation. The most food insecure populations are located in Bhola, Satkhira and Bagerhat districts. Overall, it is likely that total number of food insecure people (phase 3 and higher) will decrease in the projected period.

FOOD CONSUMPTION: On average, 10% of HHs in borderline and poor food consumption scores. In 4 Crisis phase projected districts, on average, 14% of HHs in borderline and poor Food Consumption Score. The worst situation is in Patuakhali, 31% followed by Pirojpur 30%. Around 40% population lie in phase 2 & 3 based on Household Hunger Score (HHS). LIVELIHOOD CHANGE: Over 40% of the HHs are vulnerable to Disaster and Climate change impacts in the 4 crisis districts according to Disaster and Climate statistics 2015. Around 30-45% HHs are involved in day labour or daily wage based agricultural activities. Over 90% HHs have not received remittance. Most of the districts are extremely prone to disaster and the ToT can be negatively impacted if the districts face any disasters. Also, in most of the districts, the Poverty Incidence is higher than the national average (24.9%; GED estimate). Vulnerable livelihoods option with high poverty incidence and agricultural lean period of the projected time can negatively impact the overall livelihoods of the people.

NUTRITIONAL STATUS: In the 7 projected analyzed districts, average Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) is 11% but in 4 crisis phase districts, the scenario is worse as the average GAM is 13%. In the 7 analyzed districts, only 31% women consume 5 or more food groups out of 9 food groups but in 4 crisis phase districts, only 26% women consume the same. According to the trend analysis of body mass index (BMI) for adult women, 24% of the women have been suffering from CED (Chronic Energy deficiency/BMI<18.5 kg/m2) in 7 projected analyzed districts.

MORTALITY: On 4 crisis phase districts, U5MR/ 1000/Year is 32.62 that is slightly lower compared to the National average of U5MR/ 1000/Year is 36).

Lack of financial access and poor utilization of food are the major

factors driving food insecurity. More than 30% of the population sometime/often worry about food and consumed less preferred food.

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Contact for Further Information: Md Ashikur Rahman, National IPC Coordinator; mdashikur.rahman@fao.org

IPC Global Support Unit: www.ipcinfo.org Classification of severity of acute food insecurity conducted according to the IPC Protocols.

This analysis has been made possible with the technical and financial assistance received from ECHO under the Direct technical supervision of FAO, Bangladesh and IPC-RSU

CURRENT ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY: Summary of Causes, Context and Key Issues

In 5 crisis districts, 80% Mouzas/ Mahallas (smallest administrative boundary) are vulnerable to disaster and 37% of the population are vulnerable to shocks and disasters. Most of the households have their own house (96.49%), which is slightly higher than national average (95.85%). But the house structure is vulnerable to disasters, only 27% of the households have Pacca and Semi-Pacca house which is slightly lower than the national average (28%). 15% of the population in Barguna, 5% in Bhola and 3% in Patuakhali were affected by the last cyclone Roanu. 3% of the population were displaced in Barguna. In Jessore, around 9% of the population have been affected by water logging situation. From to 2011 to2015, 1,850,540 HHs were affected by natural disasters due to floods, cyclone, water logging, salinity, drought, tidal surge, river erosion, hailstorm, thunderstorms etc. The percentage of HH affected is disaggregated as follows: Bagerhat (18%), Barguna (19%), Barisal (5%), Bhola (12%), Jessore (6%), Jhalokati (13%), Madaripur (14%), Patuakhali (19%) Pirojpur (12%) and Satkhira (8%).

Literacy rate is slightly higher (around 61%) than the national average (52.99). In most of the districts, the proportion of female headed household (4.75) is below the national average (5.38). In the 5 crisis districts, the ratio is much lower with only 4.41%. But the female literacy rate is moderately higher (59%) than the national average (51%). The disability segment of the population is 1% where national average is 0.61%; in the 5 crisis districts, there are more disability cases (1.1%). As a whole, poor human capital can lead to poor financial access and consequently to food. The scenario is most unfavourable when disasters hit in the area.

Around 56% of the population use improved water sources for drinking. In 5 crisis (Phase 3) districts, only 45.39% of the population use improved water sources for drinking, significantly lower than the national average (95%). In the 10 analyzed districts, around 8% and in 5 crisis districts around 13% people use river, pond and rain water as drinking water sources. It can be concluded that poor coverage of improved sources of drinking has a negative impact on food utilization.

In the 10 analyzed districts, coverage of improved toilet is only 19% but near the half (45%) of population is using non improved latrine that is higher than the national average (31%). In the 5 crisis districts, the coverage of improved latrine is slightly higher (23%) than the national average of improved toilet (18.43%). Therefore, near half of the population in risk regarding food utilization.

In the 10 analyzed districts, use of solid cooking fuel e.g., wood, bamboo, cow dung, leaves etc. is universal which has a negative impact on food utilization and indoor air pollution can lead to health hazards.

All of the 10 analyzed districts have rice production surplus (117 to 250%) of rice production. Bhola (250%) and Jessore (244%) have the highest surplus in rice production. In some districts, the fish production is in deficit. Regarding milk and meat production, most of the districts are in surplus where only Satkhira is in deficit of milk (92% of the requirement) production. But, most of the districts have a deficit in egg production (deficit range from 39 to 82%); Barisal has the highest deficit (82% deficit in egg production).

Only Jhalokati has 32% coverage of (paved and unpaved) road network. The other districts have only 7-15% coverage of road network. Patuakhali and Bhola have the lowest coverage of road network with only 7% each.

The Growth Centre density (pop/number of govt. approved market places) is low ranging from 7,000-11,000 population/one growth centres. During disaster situations, the scenario may worsen in terms of food availability and severe situation could impact on the physical access of food in the analyzed districts.

More than 50% HHs have access to electricity. Bhola has the lowest coverage of electricity with 41%, - below the national average 49.82%, - and Madaripur has the highest 72%.

The housing condition is very bad, with only 9-25% HHs having fine floor and 7-14% have fine wall. Only Satkhira has a better situation, where 64% houses have fine wall.

The institutional capacities are not at satisfactory level. Barguna and Patuakhali districts have no central society establishment. Other districts have 8 to 21 central society branches. Satkhira has the highest number with 21 branches in the analyzed districts. The involvement of people in the central society is less than 1%. But the involvement with primary society is slightly better with 7-9% population involved with primary societies. In Barguna, 15% population is involved with primary societies.

Acute food insecurity in this pre-harvest situation resulted from high level of poverty, generating further vulnerability to food insecurity, lack of employment opportunities or more specifically under employment that consequently deteriorated purchasing power of the poor especially the unskilled wage labourers, lower resilient disaster vulnerable populations.

Overall, food access and utilization are the major driving factors of food insecurity in the 10 analyzed districts. Poor access to improved sources of water and sanitation, poor access to safe fuel for cooking (gas and electricity), high level of illiteracy rate of women and very low level of nutrition and food security knowledge are of high concern for this pillar of food security.

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Projected ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY: Summary of Causes, Context and Key Issues

Projected months (January to April) are highly prone to different disasters like drought, heat wave, cold wave saline water intrusion and tropical cyclone (however, the Peak of Tropical Cyclone is in May). Most of the projected districts are highly prone to natural disaster especially tropical cyclone. If a tropical cyclone hits then the situation may quickly deteriorate and it may have negative impacts on the agricultural production (Boro/dry season paddy as well as other cash crops (soybean, sunflower, pulses etc). It will also cause damage to the poultry, livestock and culture fisheries and overall production will decline. The livelihoods of the low income groups mainly marginal farmers and day labourer will also be impacted unfavourably.

More than half of the population of the analyzed districts are vulnerable to disasters. Moreover, 90% of the houses in the analyzed

districts are Kaccha (a hut made up of wood, mud, straw and dry leaves) and semi pucca which indicates their poor living

condition and extreme vulnerability to hazards. Only 10% of HHs receives remittance. More than more 60% of the population is engaged in day labour and agriculture wage

labour. In most of the cases, the wage rate is lower than the national rate (BDT 325). Therefore, after a shock, people's livelihoods might be disrupted and the employment opportunity could be challenged. The wage rate may go down but still due to satisfactory terms of trade (TOT), the scenario will be within their normal copping ranges, except in Jessore and Satkhira which may face some challenges due to their low ToT.

March and April is the lean period mainly for daily wage labourers (agricultural & non-agricultural). So employment opportunity and wage rate will decrease. In addition, if any shock occurs, the lean season will prolong. Hence, the wage labour groups might face difficulty in accessing food.

Overall current food utilization situation is poor because of very low coverage of improved latrine, poor housing condition, poor access of electricity, poor communication facilities etc. Most of the districts face tropical cyclone or flood or storm surge during the lean period every year. The situation in the projected period may get worse if any disasters hit the area.

The food availability situation seems good. Rice and fish production is found satisfactory in most of the projected districts but there is slight decline of rice production in some districts. In most of the projected districts, there are deficits in the production of meat, milk and egg. This is an indication of lower food diversity and poor nutritional status.

Some of the districts are in good condition in-terms of physical access as river connectivity is present but more than half of the roads networks of the districts are unpaved and lack of sufficient growth centres, population are in critical stage regarding the physical access of food. Financial access is also a challenge where over 30% (upper & lower) of the population is poor.

Utilization of food is a major concern for most of the districts where more than 90% of HHs use unhealthy cooking materials (firewood, plan leafs, straw etc.); over half of the population does not use improved latrine. Moreover, 10-25% of HHs use unsafe drinking water from pond, canals, rainwater etc.

The nutritional statuses of the projected districts are alarming. Overall, more than half of the women eat less than 5 groups of food out of 9 food groups. Half of the children under 5 do not consume minimum dietary diversity. However, more than half of population never worry about food and over 40% of the population never consume less preferred food. Considering the data from 2011-2014, in the same time period, it is projected that Food Consumption Score will be around 10 to 20% with HHS at 20-35%. In some districts, the FSC and HHS may positively improve. So, the situation will be similar or it may deteriorate in response to a disaster within the projected period. Women may use negative coping strategy in case a disaster hits the area.

KEY DRIVERS and CONSEQUENCES OF THE SEVERE ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY

The area is highly susceptible to disasters where physical and financial access of food is main phenomenon of acute food insecurity. Moreover, poor utilization of food may contribute to the acute situation to the severe acute food insecurity situation.

Persistent poverty, low literacy rate, poor nutritional status and recurrent disaster negatively contribute to the overall food security of these districts. The projected months are prone to different disasters. If any disasters occur then situation may sharply deteriorate.

Food diversity is a major concern in HHs’ food consumption where more than 70% of women consume less than 5 food group. Child feeding practice is also compromised in some extends; only below 50% child gets appropriate food. Very poor women dietary diversity indicates the alarming situation of the nutritional status of women in most of the districts. This situation is expected to continue in the projected period.

More than 70% of the people depend on homogenous livelihoods option like agricultural/daily wage labourer. The vulnerable livelihoods groups practice coping strategies during the lean agricultural period each year that may deteriorate livelihoods assets; The projected time is highly prone to disease of livestock (e.g. goat, duck etc.); this may limit financial access of poor HHs specially female headed HH those depends on small scale livestock rearing..

Limited physical access, though the river network is good in some of the districts, low job opportunity during the agricultural lean period, low remittance flow (only below 9% HHs) increase the vulnerability of the population In addition, more than 80% population lives in vulnerable geographical settings exposed to disasters (especially tropical cyclone, water logging, tidal surge etc.).

In some of sub-districts of Satkhira, Bagerhat and Jessore, shrimp cultivation and drainage congestion are the main causes for water logging and salinity intrusion. This scenario increases the scarcity of drinking water due to salinity. Half of the population

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does not have improved latrine facilities. In addition, 90% of HHs are using unhealthy cooking materials. Those are the fundamental concerns of food utilization for the districts and households also. Commercial electricity and solar is only available for just more than half of the population of the districts, which is lower than national average.

Apart from rice, food like meat, egg and milk are in deficit in most of the projected districts. In addition, low number of growth centres can limit and make this area vulnerable to get access to the market. On the other hand, people do not get standard wages from their livelihoods which make them unable to purchase sufficient nutritious food for their families.

High acute food insecurity and low number of institutions may lead to deterioration of the district’s food security situation. If not addressed properly and immediately, in particular during upcoming agricultural lean period, this may further deteriorate the overall of food security situation of the analyzed districts.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR POLICY AND DECISION MAKERS

Articulate policies that synchronize humanitarian emergency assistance (Government and development partners) and longer-term development to timely inform and optimise use of humanitarian resources.

Effective government policies that could facilitate and enhance timely/periodic assessment of Food and Nutrition indicators at district and sub-district level.

The role of the private sector can be crucial in decreasing food and nutrition insecurity in Bangladesh. Therefore, there is need to focus on the private sectors policies and to align with government long term strategies such as government incentives, soft loan, etc. This can encourage investment in livelihoods in the least accessible areas of Bangladesh.

Better geographical targeting for the Social Safety Net Programmes (SSNPs). Enhance the preventive interventions rather than protecting interventions. Monitoring SSNPs and food assistance and track the impacts on food security situation.

Agriculture is the main source of livelihood of rural Bangladeshi. Annual average of losses of livelihoods is very high due to natural hazards in the country, while the risk and instability of food security could be reduced through early warning in food insecurity monitoring system.

Focus actionable common interagency policy and strategy to identify food & nutrition insecurity pockets number of population and communities for immediate action to save lives and livelihoods in crisis situation.

NEXT STEPS FOR ANALYSIS, MONITORING AND UPDATES

For acute analysis in Bangladesh, data (recent) inadequacy is the main problem in Bangladesh. Therefore, any assessment, where applicable should include IPC indicators to timely inform the IPC in Bangladesh.

IPC thresholds, with the support of IPC specialists from relevant sectors, could be developed for some key contributing factors to keep common understanding and actionable convergences.

It was found that disaggregated data inadequacy in livelihoods & nutrition sectors; thus, stakeholders should conduct more livelihood & nutrition based assessments/survey/surveillance to inform IPC acute analysis in time.

Since this analysis would be used as baseline reports for the districts analyzed aftermath any occurrences of disasters in the analyzed area. Since situation for some districts are worsening in the projected period, IPC TWG will conduct 2nd round of acute Analysis for those specific districts later.

IPC indicates overall food insecurity factors where financial access & utilization of food are the key determinants of food insecurity and the pockets identified by the recent acute analysis. Thus, integration of IPC findings in new country investment plan; and Plan of Actions of Ministry of Food that could optimise the use of resources.

TWG members have to determine the frequency of regularly scheduled acute analysis per year and identify the timeline.

Population Table Description (Current and Projected)

Population Table Description: An area level classification was employed where the district was taken as the unit of analysis. The classification level of the worst off group that crosses the 20 percent threshold has determined the classification level of the overall district. The number of population and percentage of population under different levels are defined according to the IPC-Acute Phase Classification color codes. Overall, in current and projected acute analysis, 22 percent and 23 percent of the population is under phase 3 (Crisis phase) or higher respectively. 28 percent and 32 percent in stress phase (Phase 2) in the current and projected acute analysis respectively. Where, 49 percent and 46 percent population is in minimal (Phase 1) according to current and projected acute analysis. The population for each of the districts is estimated based on 2011 Population figures from Population Census (BBS, 2011) and projected up to 2016 based on the population growth rate.

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Population Table: Current Acute Analysis (Validity period: June - November 2016)

District Total # of

People

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 3 or higher

# pp % # pp % # pp % # pp % # pp %

Pirojpur 1158126 428507 37 411,135 36 260578 23 57,906 5 318,485 28

Bagerhat 1504700 797491 53 338,557 23 300940 20 67,711 5 368,651 25

Satkhira 2116273 846509 40 730,114 35 476162 23 63,488 3 539,650 26

Barguna 946940 549225 58 213,062 23 146776 16 37,878 4 184,653 20

Barisal 2452326 1483657 61 674,390 28 220709 9 73,570 3 294,279 12

Bhola 1877896 619706 33 657,264 35 469474 25 131,453 7 600,927 32

Jessore 3008209 1699638 57 676,847 23 451231 15 180,493 6 631,724 21

Jhalokati 705162 239755 34 253,858 36 158661 23 52,887 8 211,549 30

Madaripur 1220447 671246 55 329,521 27 158658 13 61,022 5 219,681 18

Patuakhali 1628543 879413 54 407,136 25 227996 14 113,998 7 341,994 21

10 dist. total 16,618,624 8215148 49 4,691,883 28 2871186 17 840,406 5 3,711,592 22

Population Table: Projected Acute Analysis (Validity period: January - April 2017)

District Total # of

People

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 3 or higher

# pp % # pp % # pp % # pp % # pp %

Pirojpur 1158126 602226 52 347,438 30 150556.434 13 57,906 5 208,463 18

Bagerhat 1504700 737303 49 398,745 27 300939.955 20 67,711 5 368,651 25

Satkhira 2116273 973486 46 783,021 37 296278.281 14 63,488 3 359,766 17

Barguna 946940 397715 42 303,021 32 208326.905 22 37,878 4 246,205 26

Bhola 1877896 676043 36 657,264 35 413137.218 22 131,453 7 544,590 29

Jhalkhati 705162 232703 33 282,065 40 141032.378 20 49,361 7 190,394 27

Patuakhali 1628543 936412 58 366,422 23 227996.011 14 97,713 6 325,709 20

7 dist. total 9937641 4555888 46 3,137,976 32 1738267 17 505,510 5 2,243,777 23

The Process And Methodology

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) is a set of tools and procedures to classify the nature and severity of food insecurity for decision support. The IPC is a multi-stakeholder process based on broad technical consensus, convergence of evidence, accountability, transparency, and comparability across unit of analysis, countries and over time. The IPC classifies areas with acute food insecurity into five phases –Minimal, Stressed, Crisis, Emergency and Famine -, with each phase aligned with conforming response objectives.

To reflect the snap shot of the food insecurity in 2016, The acute (current & projected) analysis workshop was organized 11- 15th November 2016 in Dhaka. More than 46 professionals from 21 agencies (government, UN organizations, NGOs and technical agencies attended) as well as international officials from Afghanistan. Out of 64 districts of Bangladesh, 10 were covered. The data fed into the analysis was organized according to the IPC analytical framework, which includes contributing factors and outcome indicators. Data was collected from a wide range of sources including reports from the Ministry of Food, Agriculture, other government institutions and international/national organizations. For the current analysis, at outcome level indicators, Feed the Future (June-August, 2016) and FSNSP (Oct-Dec: Round 6, 9, 12, 16: 2011-2014) data was used. For the projected acute analysis, at outcome level indicators, FSNSP (FtT) data (Feb-May: Round 4, 7, 10, 13: 2011-2014) was used. The analysis was conducted via the IPC Acute Information Support System (ISS), in which all analysis worksheets were filled out and the IPC acute (current & projected) maps were generated. The whole process of the analysis was directed by in country IPC specialists as well as international experts and IPC-RSU (IPC regional support unit).

Since the representatives of Regional IPC Unit were available during the workshop, the entire process and technical consensus sessions were managed and monitored by them. Moreover, the finding of the acute analysis were verified and validated at different levels (e.g. Food Security Cluster meeting, FPMU, Ministry of Food steering committee meeting, Development partners meeting and in country IPC TWG meeting).

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Limiting Factors Matrix, Analyzed districts profile and data sources have been given in Annex 1, 2 and 3, respectively.

Annex 1: Limiting Factor Matrix

Limiting Factors Matrix: Current Acute Analysis (Validated: June - November 2016)

District

Limiting Factors

Food Availability

Food Access

Food Utilization

Pirojpur

Bagerhat

Satkhira

Barguna

Barisal

Bhola

Jessore

Jhalokati

Madaripur

Patuakhali

Limiting Factors Matrix: Projected Acute Analysis (Validated: January - April 2017)

District

Limiting Factors

Food Availability

Food Access Food Utilization

Pirojpur

Bagerhat

Satkhira

Barguna

Bhola

Jhalokati

Patuakhali

Legends

Extreme Limiting Factor

Major Limiting Factor

Minor Limiting Factor

Not a Limiting Factor

Legends

Extreme Limiting Factor

Major Limiting Factor

Minor Limiting Factor

Not a Limiting Factor

Limiting Factor matrix Description: In current analysis, 5 (prirojpur, Bagerhat, Satkhira, Bhola Jhalokati) out of 10 districts, food access and food utilization is the major limiting factors for the food insecurity of the area. These 5 districts are classified phase 3 (stress phase) according to IPC phase classification. In the projected analysis, 4 out of 7 districts, food access and food utilization is the major limiting factors for the food insecurity of the area. These 4 districts are classified phase 3 (stress phase) according to IPC phase classification.

Annex 2: 10 IPC Acute (Current and Projected) Analyzed Districts Profile

Patuakhali (Current Phase 2; Projected Phase 2):

The district has been classified in phase 2 (stressed) in both current and projected IPC acute analysis. Three out of four women is not consuming adequately diversified diet. Moreover, GAM is 10% and underweight is 31%. However, 28% women have CED (Chronic Energy deficiency/BMI<18.5 kg/m2) which indicates that overall nutrition situation is a vital issue for the district. The district is a disaster prone one as 65% of HHs are vulnerable to disaster. More than 90% houses are Katcha and semi Packha which indicates that the population is extremely vulnerable to hazards. Combinations of these hazards negatively impact the agricultural production as well as livelihoods of the low income groups especially marginal farmers and day laborers. As the district is disaster prone and has been previously exposed to different types of hazards including hailstorm, cyclone and tidal surge; thereby people's livelihood may be disrupted easily and is a challenge for their regular livelihood activities. In terms of physical access, most of them use river networks for physical access and most of the road network is paved. Financial access is a challenge as 25.8% of population is below poverty line and 61% population depends on vulnerable livelihoods option (agriculture activities or day labour). The district has deficit of milk, egg and meat and surplus in rice and fish. Food safety is an issue as only half of the population use improved toilet. In addition, more than half of the population does not have access to electricity.

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Barguna (Current Phase 2; Projected Phase 3): Nearly three in four women are consuming less than 5 food groups out of 9 food groups. Food utilization is an issue in this district because of poor coverage of improved latrine facilities (only 8%). Overall food utilization status and nutritional trends in this district are alarming. Within that recurrent disaster events might push the situation towards chronic phenomenon. The district is classified in phase 2 (Stressed) in current and phase 3 in projected IPC acute analysis. The geographical setting of the district is very critical and thereby prone to tropical cyclone, river erosion, salinity and tidal surge. Overall, 64% of the population is involved in day laborer and agriculture activities where 19% of the population is living below the poverty line. Frequent disaster, salinity intrusion during the dry season and vulnerable livelihoods context accelerate the situation that lead the population to rely on negative coping strategies. April and May are cyclone season in Bangladesh. Rural infrastructure and housing status are very poor in this district. If a disaster hits in the projected period, it will cause severe damage to the Boro paddy, poultry, livestock, culture fisheries, cash crops (soybean, sunflower, pulses etc.). Overall agricultural production will decline. These would have negative impact on livelihoods of the low income segment of the population e.g. marginal farmers, day laborers. The situation might worsen if the agricultural lean season prolong. Hence, vulnerable group as wage/daily laborer groups might face difficulty in accessing food. Bhola (Current Phase 3; Projected Phase 3): This district is vulnerable to natural disaster; more than 70-80% population is vulnerable to natural disaster as the district is located in the river delta surrounded by rivers. Livelihoods assets as livestock, poultry, crops etc. and physical structures, institutions road & others are affected by disaster frequently. Overall 70% the people of Bhola district are depending on daily labour agricultural/non-agricultural. Rice & fish productions are satisfactory but other foods like meat, egg and milk are in deficit. Overall, the nutritional status, Food Consumption, livelihoods and vulnerability situation are the worst in this district. The key evidence is 70% of women consume 4 or less food groups and the lack of improved latrine impacts the overall food utilization. Isolated district with vulnerable livelihood options, poor physical access (only 40% has electricity access, over 90% people use unhealthy natural materials (like cow dung, leaves etc.)for cooking), low number of institutions as well as frequent natural disasters make the district more vulnerable compare to other southern districts. Overall the financial & social excesses are satisfactory but the physical excess is a crucial issue. Considering evidence from 2011 and 2014 at the same period, FCS is around 17 to 18% with HHS is 25-30%. So, the situation will deteriorate or remain similar in the projected period. The district is classified phase 3 (Crisis) both in current and projected IPC acute analysis. Barisal (Current Phase 2; Projected Not Analyzed): The district is vulnerable to natural disaster as 24% of HHs were affected by recent natural disasters. Overall, food availability is good but trend shows downward of rice production. From, 2011-2016, over 14% rice production declined. Rice and fish production were better but the production of nutritional food items is lower than the required amount. Purchasing power of the population is satisfactory but physical access like unpaved road, low number of growth centers, distance to marketplaces, low electricity coverage (only 48%), and poor improved latrine facilities make the district vulnerable to shock. Household hunger score and food consumption score are indicating good indication. Women IDDS shows that 64% women's are still unable to afford diversified food, which influences the overall nutritional status. GAM is 13% of the district. BMI of adult women is 24% (> 18.5) which might be explained by their poor dietary diversity pattern. Pirojpur (Current Phase 3; Projected Phase 2): 100% of the villages of this district are vulnerable to disasters where majority of the people frequently suffer from natural disasters. Food availability is not the major limiting factor but milk, egg and fish production are still below the requirement. However, the scenario has positively changed from the last few years. The evidence shows that more than half of the population depends on fragile livelihoods a option which is daily wage labor. Moreover, there is gap between male and female labor wage distribution. 4.7% of HHs are female headed Household which is higher than the national level. If any disaster strikes then the livelihood practices will be stressed. HDDS significantly worsens the situation showing more than 80% population, especially for women who only consume 1/2 food groups out of 9 food groups. Though 75% population has improved drinking water source but more than 70% of HHs uses non-water sealed/katcha toilet which has critical impact on food utilization. The overall situation shows high vulnerability of the local population. GAM rate which is 14% indicates a key evidence for the phase 3 in current acute analysis. The trends of GAM, BMI (greater than 18.5mm), FCS and HHS indicate that the current situation may improve in the projection period (Jan-Apr 17). Looking over the other contributing factors, the indicative phase assigned is phase-2, as the situation may improve considering the other contributing factors. The district is classified phase 3 (Crisis) in current analysis and phase 2 (Stressed) in projected IPC acute analysis. Jhalokati (Current Phase 3; Projected Phase 3):

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The district is too vulnerable to natural disasters as 42% of the population and 46% of HHs were affected by the recent past disasters. Terms of Trade (ToT) has shown satisfactory purchasing power of the population but most of the population depends on vulnerable livelihoods option like daily/agricultural laborer. Poor physical access (poor electricity coverage, paved road is only 28%, market/each 8.25 km2) increases the vulnerability of the population and is the indication of lower accessibility of food in the market. The improved water supply sources and tenancy condition are good but the improved latrine (only 10%) situation is very poor. Around 90% of the houses are katcha, i.e. made with mud, straw, plastic, tin etc. which is the main contributor of deteriorating health and sanitation condition as well as being susceptive to shocks. FCS and HHS are good but 60% women do not consume a diversified food diet, which influences the overall nutritional status. Availability of food is good but the sources of nutritional food (production of meat and milk are less than the district requirement) is lower than the required amount. Although GAM is high, BMI is good (greater than 18.5mm). However, with all these consideration, this area is still classified in phase 3 in IPC current acute analysis. FCS data (2012 and 2014 years) shows that the food consumption is in increasing trend. The Boro harvesting period is from April to May. So, for the projected period January to April, the FCS may be better than the current period. There is a chance of cyclone, generally in April and May. This event may damage crops and assets of the HHs. Both farmers and agricultural labourer may face difficulties, as food availability and access may be affected. Therefore, changes are unlikely for the phase in the projected period. The district is classified phase 3 (Crisis) both in current and projected IPC acute analysis. Jessore (Current Phase 2; Projected Phase 2): Water logging is the major concern of the district. Due to the water logging and flood, 24% of people is under vulnerable situation from August-December each year. Data shows that rice and fish production in this district is higher than the demand but other animal source of protein like meat, milk and egg production is lower than the demand. 46% of the population depends on agriculture work. Financial access is limited due to the lack of regular income opportunity. More than half of women (44%) do not get appropriate diversified food. GAM rate is 7%. Nearly 34% of the population uses unsafe sources as cooking fuels. Nutrition and utilization are the most concerning issue. Satkhira (Current Phase 3; Projected Phase 2): 20% of the population is affected by the water logging and flood. Moreover a high portion of the population is also affected by salinity and storm surge which have very negative impacts on their livelihood. Shrimp cultivation and drainage congestion are the main causes for water lodging and salinity inclusion. 70% of the population depends on unstable agricultural labor. 77% women consume inadequate diversified diet. Nutritional status of U5 children is also very poor as GAM is 15%. Moreover, 30% population falls under extreme poverty. The trend of FCS is between 19%-27% from 2012-2014. Other contributing factors like lack of improved latrine (58%), lack of improved source of drinking water and use of unhealthy cooking materials (72.3%) contribute to deteriorate the nutritional status and food utilization at household’s level. Overall the district is phase 3 in IPC current acute analysis. The area is also projected as phase 2 because the analysis indicates as FSC and HHS will improve compare to the current situation. Although GAM rate is declining, the BMI rate increases negatively If a disaster hits, then the situation will deteriorate. The district is classified phase 3 (Crisis) in current IPC acute analysis and phase 2 (Stressed) in projected IPC acute analysis. Madaripur (Current Phase 2; Projected Not Analyzed): More than half of the population is vulnerable to flood and other disaster like drought, water logging and thunder respectively, but 95% of HH are vulnerable to natural hazards. Rice production is sufficient but fish, egg, milk & meat production is deficit compare to the requirement. Terms of Trade (ToT) is slightly satisfactory) indicates better financial access to food. The physical access is poor with only 13% paved road. Only 62% has electricity access. Only 74% has improved sanitation facilities; 93% uses natural materials as cooking fuel. Stability & nutrition are in moderate situation. 80% of the population is involved in vulnerable livelihoods options like daily wage labor. More than half of women (53%) do not get an appropriate diversified food. Each rainy season, the district is affected by flood; therefore 60% of population sometimes consume less than preferred amount of food. The overall nutritional status is alarming as the GAM is 10%. BMI is 16 %( greater than 18.5mm). Based on the convergence of all the evidences, the district is classified phase 2 (stressed) in current IPC acute analysis. Bagerhat (Current Phase 3; Projected Phase 3): The area is highly susceptible to disasters. 80% of the area is vulnerable to disasters and most of the inhabitants are vulnerable to shocks. The trend of hazards and vulnerability data show increasing overall vulnerability of the district. The livelihood pattern of 75% of the population is based on agriculture and daily labour. Cyclones strike during the period of April to June which affects the livelihood practices of most of the population. In the district, the rice and fish production was in decreasing trend in the period of 2011 to 2015. 77% of women consume less than 5 food groups. GAM rate is 13%. Under-five mortality rate is also higher in Bagerhat. Therefore, the district nutritional status is not good Food utilization and access to safe cooking materials are inadequate (e.g. 94% HHs uses natural materials for cooking, 63% of HH does not have improved sanitation). Considering all data, it was concluded that Bagerhat district

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is under phase-3 in IPC current acute analysis. HHs has the possibility of having food consumption gaps because 75% of the population is engaged in vulnerable livelihoods option. With the cyclone season ahead, livelihood options are most likely to be affected, especially the agriculture based livelihood. For the projection analysis, the trend of the FCS and HHS shows some acceptable improvement. Women IDDS is more alarming, which suggests women have less than 4 food groups. In addition to that, the GAM rate which improved in the period of 2011 to 2014, slightly deteriorated in 2016. The district is classified phase 3 (Crisis) both in current and projected IPC acute analysis.

Annex 3: Data sources : Data used in IPC Acute Analysis, November 2016

Data sources : Data used in IPC Acute Analysis, November 2016

Data Sources name Sources/ Organizations

Bangladesh Disaster-related Statistics 2015: Climate Change and Natural Disaster Perspectives

BBS, Bangladesh

Agricultural Yearbook, 2015 BBS, Bangladesh

Bangladesh Statistical Yearbook 2015 BBS, Bangladesh

Feed the Future data, 2016 HKI

Data from Roads and Highway Department 2015 R&HD, Bangladesh

Forest Data Bangladesh Forest Department, 2014

Rice Production data FPMU, Ministry of Food, Bangladesh

JNA Report on Cyclone Roanu 2016 FAO, WFP and NAWG

NDRCC Report 2016 BMD, Bangladesh

BBS Census 2011 BBS, Bangladesh

BBS statistical Year Book 2015 BBS, Bangladesh

SVRS (Data collected June 2015, Published in May, 2016) BBS, Bangladesh

For Projected IPC acute analysis: Outcome Indicators (FSNSP Round 4, 7, 10 and 13) HKI 2003, 2007, 2011 and 2014

Fish Production Data Department of Fisheries (DoF) 2016

LGED web portal, 2016 LGED, Bangladesh

Poverty data/MAP WFP, WB, BBS 2012

For Current IPC acute Analysis: FSNSP-HKI 2011-14 (October-December)_Round (6,9,12,16)

FSNSP (Food Security and Nutrition Surveillance Programme), HKI 2011-2014

Water logging Report FAO, 2016

Water logging calendar, 2014 DDM, Bangladesh

District Portal Statistics District Government website, Bangladesh

Crop Calendar for Major Crops in Bangladesh, 2013 Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC)

Disaster Calendar-Country Wide, 2011 BMD, Bangladesh