disruptive technologies and public radio jobs dennis l. haarsager digital distribution...
TRANSCRIPT
Disruptive Technologies and Public Radio Jobs
Dennis L. HaarsagerDigital Distribution Implementation Initiative and Northwest Public Radio
Digital Distribution Implementation Initiative
Funded by CPBTasked to coordinate large-scale technology initiatives and to update 1992 and 1997 work on digital scenariosRuns from 11/2001 through 10/2003Scope includes both radio and televisionWeb site: www.technology360.com
Disruptive Technologies
Not all get traction… AM Stereo, FMX, RBDS, Betamax
Some do, but get displaced by later disruptive technologies…
8-tracks, 5¼” Diskettes, MS-DOS, local mom & pop ownership
Disruptive Technologies
[Technology here means the processes by [Technology here means the processes by which an organization transforms labor, which an organization transforms labor, capital, materials and information into capital, materials and information into products and services of greater value.]products and services of greater value.]
Innovations that often result in worse product Innovations that often result in worse product performance, at least in the near term.performance, at least in the near term.
Bring to market a very different value Bring to market a very different value proposition (typically cheaper, simpler, smaller proposition (typically cheaper, simpler, smaller and frequently more convenient)and frequently more convenient)
Usually are the cause when leading firms fail – Usually are the cause when leading firms fail – notnot sustaining innovations sustaining innovations
Established vs. Disruptive Technologies
ESTABLISHEDESTABLISHED
Photographic filmPhotographic film
Wireline telephonyWireline telephony
Full-service brokerageFull-service brokerage
Campus-based instr’nCampus-based instr’n
Medical doctorsMedical doctors
MRI/CT scanningMRI/CT scanning
Offset printingOffset printing
Cardiac bypass surgeryCardiac bypass surgery
DISRUPTIVEDISRUPTIVE
Digital photographyDigital photography
Mobile telephonyMobile telephony
Online brokerageOnline brokerage
Distance educationDistance education
Nurse practitionersNurse practitioners
UltrasoundUltrasound
Digital printingDigital printing
AngioplastyAngioplasty
From Clayton M. Christensen, The Innovator’s Dilemma
Disruptive Technologies in Radio
Disruptive Innovation
“The pace of technological progress generated by established players inevitably outstrips customer’s ability to absorb it, creating opportunity for start-ups to displace incumbents.”“There are times at which it is right not to listen to customers, right to invest in developing lower-performance product that promise lower margins, and right to aggressively pursue small, rather than substantial, markets.”
From Clayton M. Christensen, The Innovator’s Dilemma
Environmental Scan
Electronic Media Today
Conglomerates dominate ownership and control diverse distribution outlets, with both “horizontal” and “vertical” operations and pricing advantagesUsers are taking control of when they access programmingSubscriber-based economic models are competing with ad-supported (and donor-supported) ones
Radio Today
Terrestrial radio remains strong, but landscape is littered with failed radio technology enhancementsOwnership consolidation widespread since ‘96; pubradio competing with stations that have better cost profiles and centralized best practices operationsSatellite radio and real-time web streaming are emerging as playersAsynchronous distribution (on demand, peer-to-peer sharing) of audio also gaining foothold; first radio “TiVo’s” appearBecause of group ownership and general availability of 7x24 program services, national voices are increasingly replacing local ones
Public Broadcasting Today
““Everyone is baking their own cookies”Everyone is baking their own cookies”
““Hail Mary” method of funding depreciationHail Mary” method of funding depreciation
Usage strong compared to other public service Usage strong compared to other public service providers (11.8B providers (11.8B personperson contact hours annually contact hours annually for public radio, 5.8B for public radio, 5.8B hhhh contact hours for PTV) contact hours for PTV)
Policy support of public broadcasting less assuredPolicy support of public broadcasting less assured
Our esteem is an asset that can be leveraged or Our esteem is an asset that can be leveraged or squanderedsquandered
Other public service entrants entering electronic Other public service entrants entering electronic media, usually using disruptive technologiesmedia, usually using disruptive technologies
Radio In Five Years
Local ownership of commercial stations will have all but disappearedAM/FM digital broadcasting established, but acceptance uncertainLack of spectrum for public radio even more acute*Use of other platforms and new forms of distribution will grow, but are unlikely in this time frame to displace much listening to terrestrial stations*But new developments like Software-Defined Radios and the new 700-MHz broadcast service could change that
Strategic Investment Scenarios
Investments may be individual or collective
Collective Investment Modalities
Toolkits – activities or tools stations can use to achieve best practices without need for collaborationService Clouds – stations outsource significant activities created for specialized purposesColonizers – efforts to operate public broadcasting mission elements independently with or without station involvement
Scenario 1 – Sustaining Investments
Make strategic investments in initiatives that sustain the legacy (broadcasting) businessTends to maintain operational independencePreserves as much “gross tonnage” of public service as possible, at least in the near termHigh investments in “Toolkits,” somewhat lower investments in “Service Clouds,” little in “Colonizers”
Scenario 2 – Repositioning Investments
Make strategic investments in initiatives that reposition a station in new directions consistent with historic missionCapacity and scale created at collective levelEmphasis on editorial (programming) rather than operational independenceIncreased investments in “Service Clouds” and “Colonizers”
Consultant’s Provocations
Form “virtual broadcast groups,” digital distribution companies that operate key functions of current stations within and across markets (include NPR or PRSS as eligible service provider)Create public service “digital condominium association” with other state, national and international advanced networks (e.g., Internet2)Task a system economics panel with devising strategies to redeploy [insert ambitious amount here] of existing system revenue from “cookies” to capitalization and audience-sensitive priorities
Provocations for Programmers
Jobs that, from a listener’s perspective, can be performed anywhere may be endangered.Most public radio stations lack sufficient scale for true best practices in all functions; many are so small everyone has multiple functions.Evaluate what local value you and your team are providing. Move investments from things that can be done better (or as well but cheaper) elsewhere to things that are done best in your community.
Contact Information
Dennis L. Haarsager, DDII Consultant1019 Border Lane, Moscow, ID 83843-8737208-892-9445 • [email protected]
www.technology360.com
Assoc. V. P., Educational Telecommunications & TechnologyNorthwest Public Radio, KWSU-KTNW-TV, WHETS, ISSWashington State UniversityBox 642530, Pullman WA, 99164-2530509-335-6530 • e-fax 888-455-1070 • [email protected]