Developing within-country climate prediction capacity in

the South west PacificMichael Michael CoughlanCoughlan & & Janita PahaladJanita Pahalad

National Climate Centre, MelbourneNational Climate Centre, Melbourne

Scott PowerScott Power

Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, MelbourneBureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne

Ann FarrellAnn Farrell

Climate Section, Queensland Regional OfficeClimate Section, Queensland Regional Office

Bureau of MeteorologyBureau of Meteorology

AustraliaAustralia

Outline

•• Project BackgroundProject Background

•• Implementation ProcessImplementation Process

•• Operational Systems and SoftwareOperational Systems and Software

•• Pilot Projects for user applicationsPilot Projects for user applications

•• ConclusionsConclusions

PROJECT SUMMARY•• Project is a response to Pacific Meteorological Project is a response to Pacific Meteorological

Needs Analysis, May 2001.Needs Analysis, May 2001.

•• Fully funded by Australian Aid Agency, Fully funded by Australian Aid Agency, AusAID (AUD2.2 Million)AusAID (AUD2.2 Million)

•• Activity in collaboration with a range of Activity in collaboration with a range of international agenciesinternational agencies

•• Project manager is Australian Bureau of Project manager is Australian Bureau of MeteorologyMeteorology

•• Take approximately three and a half years Take approximately three and a half years from late 2003from late 2003

PROJECT OBJECTIVES

•• Strengthen PIC NMS capacity in climate Strengthen PIC NMS capacity in climate prediction, through providing proven seasonal prediction, through providing proven seasonal prediction system (based on Australian Bureau prediction system (based on Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s operational system), and of Meteorology’s operational system), and trainingtraining in its prudent use. in its prudent use.

•• Enhance ability of PICs to provide a Enhance ability of PICs to provide a sustainable climate prediction service to sustainable climate prediction service to meet meet needs of usersneeds of users in climatein climate--sensitive industries, sensitive industries, through inthrough in--country workshops involving NMSs country workshops involving NMSs and potential user representatives. and potential user representatives.

PROJECT OUTCOMES•• Countries equipped with better scientific understanding of Countries equipped with better scientific understanding of

climate variability and how their own countries are affected by climate variability and how their own countries are affected by El NiEl Niñño/La Nio/La Niñña and other large scale, as well as more local a and other large scale, as well as more local processes affecting weather and climate.processes affecting weather and climate.

•• SustainableSustainable seasonal prediction service, tailored to country seasonal prediction service, tailored to country needs: aid decisionneeds: aid decision--making in climatemaking in climate--sensitive sectors sensitive sectors (e.g. agriculture, water management, disaster mitigation).(e.g. agriculture, water management, disaster mitigation).

•• Improved links with broader international support structures Improved links with broader international support structures (WMO, FAO etc.).(WMO, FAO etc.).

•• Better media engagement and reporting on weather and Better media engagement and reporting on weather and climate matters.climate matters.

•• A seasonal forecasting service that provides not only A seasonal forecasting service that provides not only qualityqualityinformation, but also information that has information, but also information that has valuevalue for the user.for the user.

Bureau of Meteorology•• Design and supply PCDesign and supply PC--based forecasting based forecasting

systemsystem

•• Train NMS personnel on scientific basis of Train NMS personnel on scientific basis of the prediction system;the prediction system;

•• Implement prediction system in NMS and Implement prediction system in NMS and tailor initial output products for country tailor initial output products for country needsneeds

•• Facilitate initial communications between Facilitate initial communications between NMS and potential clients, and assist in NMS and potential clients, and assist in training the latter in the use of seasonal training the latter in the use of seasonal forecasts.forecasts.

•• Provide general and particular advice and Provide general and particular advice and assist communications between assist communications between NMSsNMSs

Pacific Island Countries Contributions(through NMS)

•• Suitably qualified meteorological personnel Suitably qualified meteorological personnel with time allocated to the projectwith time allocated to the project

•• Adequate office environment including Adequate office environment including internet connectioninternet connection

•• Basic computer/IT support Basic computer/IT support

•• Adequate local budget support for the Adequate local budget support for the duration of the projectduration of the project

•• Support for coordination of inSupport for coordination of in--country country workshops and training workshops and training

•• Commitment to ongoing operations after the Commitment to ongoing operations after the project is completedproject is completed

Partner agencies•• Nine Pacific Island Countries NMS (Fiji, Cook Islands, Nine Pacific Island Countries NMS (Fiji, Cook Islands,

Vanuatu, Samoa, Tonga, Niue, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Samoa, Tonga, Niue, Solomon Islands, Kiribati and Tuvalu)Kiribati and Tuvalu)

•• SPREP, WMOSPREP, WMO•• SOPAC (under CAP)SOPAC (under CAP)•• Australia’s US counterpart under the AustraliaAustralia’s US counterpart under the Australia--US US

Climate Action Partnership the Bureau/ EastClimate Action Partnership the Bureau/ East--West West Centre/PEAC/NOAA)Centre/PEAC/NOAA)

•• USUS--NZNZ--Australia TriAustralia Tri--Lateral CAP Programme (NIWA)Lateral CAP Programme (NIWA)

Implementation Process

Events to date…•• High level discussions with participating PIC High level discussions with participating PIC

Government representatives (except for Government representatives (except for NiueNiue): Feb ): Feb to May 2004to May 2004

•• MOUsMOUs drafted and submitted (few finalised)drafted and submitted (few finalised)•• First round of inFirst round of in--country workshops country workshops -- NMS training NMS training

and Stakeholders’ briefing session: June to Sept and Stakeholders’ briefing session: June to Sept 2004 (except 2004 (except NiueNiue and Kiribati)and Kiribati)

•• Lesson Learned workshop, July 2004, FijiLesson Learned workshop, July 2004, Fiji•• Computer procurements suppliedComputer procurements supplied•• New version of software (SCOPIC) has been New version of software (SCOPIC) has been

developed.developed.

•• Review the current Rainfall Prediction service at Review the current Rainfall Prediction service at the FMSthe FMS–– How effective have they been in reaching out How effective have they been in reaching out

to the users/stakeholders?to the users/stakeholders?–– What are its strengths and weaknesses?What are its strengths and weaknesses?

•• Next StepsNext Steps–– What more needs to be done?What more needs to be done?–– What lessons (or experiences) we can take What lessons (or experiences) we can take

from here to other Pacific Islands Countries?from here to other Pacific Islands Countries?

Lessons Learned WorkshopObjectives

•• To identify potential users who would benefit from To identify potential users who would benefit from climate information, including predictions, for risk climate information, including predictions, for risk management planning within their respective sectorsmanagement planning within their respective sectors

•• For each group of stakeholders, identify their needs in For each group of stakeholders, identify their needs in terms of:terms of:–– Type and format of information they might find Type and format of information they might find

useful;useful;–– When and how often the information might be When and how often the information might be

requiredrequired–– Training needs in the use of climate informationTraining needs in the use of climate information

•• Identify one or two pilot studies that might be Identify one or two pilot studies that might be implemented under the project to demonstrate the implemented under the project to demonstrate the usefulness of climate information, and to gather usefulness of climate information, and to gather preliminary information on the availability of the sector preliminary information on the availability of the sector specific data that would be needed for each studyspecific data that would be needed for each study

Stakeholders’ Briefing Session: Objectives

Training on Application of Climate Predictions

•• 2 day NMS training and 3 day client Training2 day NMS training and 3 day client Training–– NMS: advanced SCOPIC training, advanced statistics NMS: advanced SCOPIC training, advanced statistics

and preparation for the client workshop and preparation for the client workshop –– Applications training (Climate Forum, forecasting and Applications training (Climate Forum, forecasting and

decisiondecision--making exercise and roundmaking exercise and round--table discussion)table discussion)•• Schedule for 2005:Schedule for 2005:

–– Vanuatu (31Vanuatu (31stst Jan Jan –– 44thth Feb)Feb)–– Solomon Islands (7Solomon Islands (7thth to 11to 11thth Feb)Feb)–– Samoa (21Samoa (21stst to 25to 25thth Feb)Feb)–– Cook Islands (7Cook Islands (7thth to 11to 11thth Mar)Mar)–– Fiji (14Fiji (14thth to 18to 18thth Mar, 21Mar, 21stst to 22to 22ndnd Mar)Mar)–– Niue (4Niue (4thth to 8to 8thth April)April)–– Tonga (9Tonga (9thth to 13to 13thth May)May)–– Tuvalu/Kiribati (May/June)Tuvalu/Kiribati (May/June)

Workshop Objectives•• To demonstrate available information and stress the To demonstrate available information and stress the

limitations of the forecasts, the nature of probabilitylimitations of the forecasts, the nature of probability--based based predictions; predictions;

•• To demonstrate to decisionTo demonstrate to decision--makers in climate sensitive makers in climate sensitive activities the availability of, and effective and prudent use ofactivities the availability of, and effective and prudent use of, , probabilistic climate predictions as an input to decisionprobabilistic climate predictions as an input to decision--making; making;

•• To train decisionTo train decision--makers in climate sensitive activities usage makers in climate sensitive activities usage of probabilistic climate predictions in decisionof probabilistic climate predictions in decision--making to making to minimise risks in their respective sectors; minimise risks in their respective sectors;

•• To establish effective communication delivery channels from To establish effective communication delivery channels from the PIC National Meteorological Service to its clients; the PIC National Meteorological Service to its clients;

•• To ascertain specific information needs, provide a forum for To ascertain specific information needs, provide a forum for identifying desirable software modifications; identifying desirable software modifications;

•• To train the media contacts in order to ensure most effective To train the media contacts in order to ensure most effective and accurate dissemination of the climate information, and accurate dissemination of the climate information, including predictions to the general public; and including predictions to the general public; and

•• To identify and/or commence one of more pilot projects in To identify and/or commence one of more pilot projects in some of the PIC. some of the PIC.

Expected Outcomes of Workshop

•• Expected Outcomes:Expected Outcomes:•• Recommendations (what else can be done within Recommendations (what else can be done within

the project) the project) •• What other products or improvements required to What other products or improvements required to

the softwarethe software•• How to set up an effective communication channel How to set up an effective communication channel

between the NMS and the stakeholdersbetween the NMS and the stakeholders

Next steps

•• Project Coordinating Meeting: 11Project Coordinating Meeting: 11thth April, April, NiueNiue

•• Several Pilot Projects implemented over 1 Several Pilot Projects implemented over 1 yearyear

•• Software modified to meet clients’ request Software modified to meet clients’ request as far as possibleas far as possible

Operational System and Software

Bureau of MeteorologyOperational, Statistically Based, Seasonal Forecast System

Mapping

Exploring data

Data Analysis

Verification

Pilot Projects

PILOT PROJECTS

•• Sugar cane in Fiji Sugar cane in Fiji

•• Other possible pilot projects: Other possible pilot projects:

–– Water Resources in Tonga Water Resources in Tonga

–– Grazing industry in VanuatuGrazing industry in Vanuatu

–– Fishing in Solomon IslandFishing in Solomon Island

–– Pearling in Cook IslandsPearling in Cook Islands

•• depend on availability of user data, depend on availability of user data, e.g. crop productivity, fish catch e.g. crop productivity, fish catch statistics.statistics.

Conclusions• This project aims to develop in-house

seasonal forecasting capacity in PIC NMS.• Provides opportunity to complement and

enhance existing seasonal forecast products in the region

• An important component is building relationships between the forecast providers and stakeholders, to enable products to be tailored to user needs.

• Aims to deliver and implement an operational system that is sustainable in the long term.

Seasonal Forecasting

Applications in Fiji

Rainfall in Fiji• Large seasonal variation• Large inter-annual variation (ENSO

related)• Pronounced dry and wet zones• Wet season – Nov to April (heavy

afternoon rain and thunderstorms are common)

• Dry season – June to Sept• Seasons controlled by SPCZ

Seasonal Variation in Nadi

Current Users• Fiji Sugar Corporation - uses rainfall

forecasts for planning their crop season• Fiji Pine Limited – planning planting and

logging• Monosavu Hydro Dam – budgeting for

back-up fuel• Others: Construction/insurance

/tourism/disaster managersPotential users:• Water resources • Health

Fiji Seasonal Forecasts

Water uses

• Domestic supply (most important use)• Tourism (selected islands)• Irrigated agriculture (limited)• Hydropower (limited to some islands)• Mining (limited to some islands)

Forecasts (tercile probabilities) of above average, average and below average rainfall and temperature

• Rainfall forecasts are particularly important as rainfall is the main ‘input’ in the hydrological cycle. Effects on:

– Soil moisture– Streamflow– Groundwater recharge– Spring outflows

• Temperature forecasts are less important as temperature is not generally a limiting factor in tropical island countries influencing evapotranspiration (one of the main ‘ouputs’ in the hydrological cycle)

How can seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) help in water management?

(a) Forecasts of lower than normal rainfall

• Activate drought planning measures

(b) Forecasts of higher than normal rainfall (and possible frequency of tropical cyclones)

• Enhance disaster planning and preparedness

Applications of seasonal climate forecasts to water management

• Increase monitoring and surveillance of water resources

– Streamflows, water levels (reservoirs and groundwater)– Groundwater salinity in coastal and small island aquifers

• Plan for emergency water supply measures. Examples are:

– Barging of water (Fiji, Tonga)– Desalination (Marshall Islands, Tuvalu)– Temporary dug wells on beach below high tide in some islands– Coconuts as substitute for freshwater (Temporary use)– Brackish or seawater for non-potable purposes

• Prepare to change water supply operational procedures. Examples are:

– Use (more expensive) pumping rather than using gravity-fed surface water sources

– Use more distant sources rather then closer, less expensive sources

Applications : (a) Drought planning

• Increase water conservation measures (especially urban areas)

– Advise communities of possible need for voluntary or mandatory restrictions

– Advise householders to conserve rainwater for essential needs

– Commence sourcing water from communal storages to supplement domestic rainwater tanks (e.g. Funafuti, Tuvalu).

– Increase leakage control measures to make additional water available from current sources

• Plan for alternative electricity sources where hydropower is used

– Advise communities in advance

– Possible need for additional funds to run diesel powered stations

Applications : (a) Drought planning

Tropical Cyclones: El Niño Years

Tropical Cyclones: Neutral Years

Tropical Cyclones: La Niña Years

• Increase surveillance of weather conditions• Ensure measures in place for possible increased

flooding– Assess vulnerability of critical areas (e.g. urban areas, water

supply infrastructure)– Check/update existing plans & operational procedures– Undertake road and bridge maintenance – Check/clear floodways upstream of critical areas– Ensure capability to disseminate warnings in a timely manner

• Plan for gauging of streams in high flow conditions– Need to check equipment, transport , access– Need for appropriately trained personnel

• Ensure sufficient funds are available for contingencies

Applications: (b) Disaster planning & preparedness

• Different to short-term forecasts:– Seasonal Forecasts will generally be

expressed in probabilistic terms, i.e. not in categorical terms that are more frequently used for short-term daily weather forecasts.

• Seasonal forecasts require continuous and open dialogue between providers and users:

– Seasonal forecasts have a long “shelf life”, e.g. typically one month, at which time a three-month forecast will be updated, with probable shift in probabilities.

Seasonal climate forecastsCAVEATS