demand forecasting of "popcorn" in hubli-dharwad

KARNATAK UNIVERSITYKOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT

STUDIESDHARWAD

PROJECT REPORT ON DEMAND FORECASTING OF POPCORNIN

HUBLI-DHARWAD

YEAR 2013-14

SUBMITTED BY GROUP-6

Sumit - Mba13001051Sunitha - Mba13001052

Suresh- Mba13001053Suvarna- Mba13001054

Chand- Mba13001055Vaijanath- Mba13001056

Venkatesh- Mba13001057Vijayalaxmi- Mba13001058

VISHWANATH - MBA13001059Zeba - Mba13001060

Under the guidance of

Institute Guide.

Mrs. VIDULA DHULKED

1KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES

KARNATAK UNIVERSITY, DHARWAD

Sl. No. Particulars Page No.

01 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT 3

02 INTRODUCTION 4

03 NEED FOR THE STUDY 6

04 OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY 7

05 SCOPE OF THE STUDY 8

06 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY 9

07 METHODOLOGY AND DATA COLLECTION 9

08 SAMPLE SIZE 10

09 SIZE AND COMPOSITION OF THE SAMPLE 10

10 DATA INTERPRETATION 11

11 SALES DURING THE PERIOD 22

12 DEMAND FORECASTING 23

13 CONCLUSIONS 25

14 BIBLIOGRAPHY 28

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT



We would like to thank all the people who helped us in completing this project.

We would like to express our special thanks of gratitude to Mrs. Vidula Dhulked

(Institute Guide) as well, who gave us the opportunity to do this project on

“DEMAND FORECASTING FOR POPCORN IN HUBLI-DHARWAD

REGION”, which also helped us in doing a lot of Research and knowing the

current market about POPCORN Industry.

Regardless of the source we wish to express our gratitude to those who have

contributed to our project, even though anonymously. We would also like to

thank our parents and friends who helped us a lot in completion of this project

within the stipulated time. We extend our thanks to our Director, Dr. A.H.

Chachadi, and Mrs. Vidula Dhulked (Economics Faculty) for providing us an

opportunity to do research on POPCORN product.

INTRODUCTION



Popcorn, also known as popping corn, is a type of corn (maize, Zea mays var.

everta) that expands from the kernel and puffs up when heated. Popcorn is able to

pop because, like amaranth grain, sorghum, quinoa, and millet, its kernels have a

hard moisture-sealed hull and a dense starchy interior. Pressure builds inside the

kernel, and a small explosion (or "pop") is the end result. Some strains of corn are

now cultivated specifically as popping corns.

Popcorn was first cultivated thousands of years ago by the people living in what is

now Peru. It is one of the oldest forms of corn; evidence of popcorn from 3600

B.C. was found in New Mexico, while even older evidence was found in Peru. It is

estimated that these remnants date from as early as 4700 B.C. Purple popcorn was

found in the early 1900s.

Popcorn is a simple wholegrain food that can be bought as kernels to pop at home,

or as ready-to-eat corn, available flavored in several ways – both sweet and savory.

It has great potential for development.



NEED FOR THE STUDY



To understand the emerging POPCORN market in India. The study within Hubli-

Dharwad geographic region has provided information to understand the historic

and forecast consumption volumes and values, segmented by market share,

distribution channel, category and geography. To determine the market dynamics

at work in the sector, as well as to identify which geographies and segments will

show growth in coming years.

To do research on POPCORN product categories i.e., Microwaveable Popcorn,

Ready-to-Eat Popcorn, Ready-made popcorn and Unpopped Corn.

And also to understand the market position of POPCORN as compared to other

snack items. To forecast the demand for the product POPCORN as a part of the

project assigned.

OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY



To understand the POPCORN market under food processing industry in and

around Hubli-Dharwad junction. The main objective is to study The demand

forecasting of POPCORN and to bring out the changing tastes and preferences of

people towards the consumption of snacks. The research is done on considering the

method, by which POPCORN is popped, its consumption, its variety in flavors,

price and demand for POPCORN at various places.

SCOPE OF THE STUDY

While the economic scenario in India is not very encouraging with the rupee

falling to its all time low at 62.46, the booming popcorn business can be a relief to



many. The popcorn industry in India is growing extensively with an annual sales

growth of 10 percent. With multiplexes coming up every forth night, the

consumption of popcorn is unbelievable.

Seeing the growing popcorn market, the Indian farmers are also concentrating on

maize cultivation and almost 25 percent of the production is sent to food industry.

According to experts, this industry is only going to rise in the coming years.

Responding to the above forecast, new entrepreneurs are emerging in various parts

of India. Hyderabad- based Venagro is a new player and is annually selling 2,500

tonnes of corn in bulk.

The good news is that even nutritionists approve of this snack and hence we can

munch as much popcorns as we want without worrying about health hazards.

Because popcorn is a snack food, it faces substantial competition from other

products. However, popcorn’s versatility and nutritional attributes helps it compete

with other snacks. Popcorn is low in calories and fat, and high in carbohydrates.

Weight Watchers® recommends popcorn as a snack for the weight-conscious. The

American Dental Association® endorses popcorn as a sugar-free snack. The

American Cancer Society® recognizes the benefits of its fiber content.

LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

There is no particular production and distribution channel of

POPCORN snack to the market.



Other Indian snacks are effective competitors to POPCORN.

The taste and preferences of people of Hubli-Dharwad towards

POPCORN less in demand comparatively with its Substitutes.

This study is limited to only 100 samples when compared to huge population of HUBLI-DHARWAD region.

The data collected through questionnaires might not be 100% accurate and the data or information collected from the retailer may not be transparent.

METHODOLOGY

The main sources of data collected are of 2 types they are:

PRIMARY SOURCE OF DATA: Primary source of data is collected

through interaction with the customer, through questionnaires and by

personal observation at various places of Hubli-Dharwad.

SECONDARY SOURCE OF DATA: Secondary source of data is collected

through micro economic book & websites related to POPCORN Industry.

SAMPLE SIZE

We took 100 samples of questionnaires and distributed them among the

people of Hubli-Dharwad region where we interacted with them by asking them

to fill the questionnaires.



SAMPLE COMPOSITION

77% of the samples were mainly consisted of the age group 15-35 in which

60% were male and 17% were female, 15% were of the age group 35-above in

which 8% were male and 7% were female and the age group of below-15 were at

8% in which 6% were female and 2% were male.

DATA INTERPRETATION

1. Have you heard of popcorn?

NO. of samples Percentage

Yes 90 90

No 10 1010

KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIESKARNATAK UNIVERSITY, DHARWAD

Total 100 100

Analysis:

From the above information it is analyzed that 90% of population of Hubli-

Dharwad heard of POPCORN to 10% of population are unaware of product

POPCORN.

2. Do you eat popcorn?



90%

10%

Percentage

Yes No

yes no0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Above 3515-35Below 15

Analysis:

The above pie chart depicts that 85% of population eat POPCORN whereas 15% of

population don’t have POPCORN.

3. Have often you have POPCORN?



Daily Once in a weak

Twice a weak Occassionally0

5

10

15

20

25

Below 15

15-35

Above 35

Below 1515-35Above 35

Analysis:

The above cylindrical chart depicts that the highest percentage of people have

POPCORN once in a week between the age group of 15-35. And lowest

percentages of population have POPCORN twice a week between the age group of

15-35.

4. Where do you usually eat POPCORN?



At home Theatres Malls Other specify0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Analysis:

The above bar diagram presents the percents that 50% of respondents have

POPCORN at Theatres between the age group of 15-35 years of age and below 1%

of respondents have at home who are above 35 years of age.

5. Does POPCORN can be considered as substitute for other snacks?



Analysis:

The above data depicts that 79 % of the people of Hubli-Dharwad feel that

POPCORN can be substituted with other available snacks as compared to 21% of

people say it can’t be substituted.

6. What type of flavour would you like to have?



79%

21%

Percentage

YesNo

Sweet corn Salty corn Chilly corn Pepper corn0

5

10

15

20

25

30


Analysis:

From the above cylindrical diagram, it can be said that 30% of people between the

age group of 15-35 years like salt flavored POPCORN, whereas about 2%

population like chilly corn above 35years of age.

7. What is your one time expenditure when you buy POPCORN?



Below Rs. 10 Rs. 10-25 Rs. 25-40 Above Rs. 400

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Below 15

15-35

Above 35


Analysis:

From the above diagram it is depicted that 55% of people spend 10-25Rs when

they purchase POPCORN.

8. Which one you prefer?



29%

71%

Percentage

Ready-to-eat popcornReady made popcorn

Analysis:

From the above diagram we can depict that 71% of population prefer ready-made

POPCORN as compared to 29% of people who prefer ready-to-eat POPCORN.

9. Do you want it to deliver to your home?



Analysis:

From the above diagram we can say that 58% of people want POPCORN to be

delivered to their home instantly as compared to 42% of people don’t want

POPCORN to be delivered to their home.

10. What kind of popcorn would you like to have?



Percentage

YesNo

Hot

Cold

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


Analysis:

From above conical chart we can say that maximum percentage of people prefer

hot POPCORN instantly rather than to have cold ones.

11. Do you like to have coloured POPCORN?



Yes

No

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Analysis:

From above diagram it can be said that above 55% of people between 15-35 age

group prefer coloured POPCORN as compared to other groups of people age

above 35 and below 15 years of age.

SALES DURING THE PERIOD



It was observed that POPCORN has various demands for sales based on the place

it is being sold. We had observed for 10 specific places where the popcorn is sold

at theatres, parks, malls and market the price varies from one place to other, the

least price we come across was Rs 10 and the highest was Rs 30. There is an

average sale of 24.4 packets on week days at a place and in weekend it is around

47 packets. If we consider the average as Rs 20 per packet then the average sales of

POPCORN will be Rs 2400 in week days and Rs 1720 in weekend at a place, in

total it will be Rs 3720 per week at a place.

Based on the available data we projected the sales from Sunday to onday.

DAYS Quantity Sold

(packets)

SALES IN RS. (at a

place)

Sunday 49 980

Monday 19 380

Tuesday 22 440

Wednesday 24 480

Thursday 27 540

Friday 30 600

Saturday 45 900

TOTAL 206 4320

DEMAND FORECASTING

Forecasting For Next Three Days.



Method Of Least Squares:

Days Sales

(in Rs.)

x x2 xy

Sunday 980 -3 9 -2940

Monday 380 -2 4 -760

Tuesday 440 -1 1 -440

Wednesday 480 0 0 000

Thursday 540 1 1 540

Friday 600 2 4 1200

Saturday 900 3 9 2700

TOTAL 4320 00 18 300

Finding value of a. Finding the value of b.

Substituting the above values in the equation

y = a + bx

Sales for 2nd Monday: y = a + bx

=617.14+16.67(4)

= Rs. 683.82

Sales for 2nd Tuesday: y = a + bx



∑y= na + b∑x

4320=7a+0

a=4320/7

a=617.14

∑xy=a∑x+

b∑x2

300=0+

18b

b=300/18

b=16.67

=617.14+16.67(5)

= Rs.700.49

Sales for 2nd Wednesday: y = a + bx

=617.14+16.67(6)

= Rs.717.16

Forecast Error Based On Least Square Method:

Forecast error = sales on 1st Monday – forecasted sales on 2nd Monday

Forecast error = 380 - 683.82

= Rs. -303.82

CONCLUSION

We aim to analyze the success, marketability and future growth prospects of

POPCORN. Basically we intend to find out the demand and supply of POPCORN

at Hubli-Dharwad. Snacks as such are a very minor part of the food processing

industry because snacks sector is largely unorganized. Here we will also look into

the market trends in snacks over the period. For this a survey was conducted in



Hubli-Dharwad where respondents were asked to fill a questionnaire. The data

was collected and analyzed to obtain conclusions. This report carries an

introduction of the product profile, detail of the product POPCORN, followed

detailed data analysis and the results so obtained with the variety of graphs along

with given information.

POPCORN SURVEY

SAMPLE EXTENT: HUBLI & DHARWADSAMPLE METHOD: CUSTOMER SURVEY

Dear Sir/Madam, We are conducting a survey on POPCORN, we request you to fulfill the questionnaire, your responses are valuable & appreciated and it will be kept confidentially & not to be disclosed.

Thank You For Spending Your Valuable Time.

NAME:

AGE:

GENDER:

LOCATION:

DATE:

1. Have you heard of POPCORN?



A. Yes B. No

2. Do you eat POPCORN? A. Yes B. No

3. How often you have POPCORN? A. Daily C. Once in a week B. Twice in a week D. Occasionally 4. Where do you usually eat POPCORN?

A. At home B. Theatres C. Malls D. Others specify -----------------------

5. What makes you to buy POPCORN?

6. Does POPCORN can be considered as substitute for other snacks?A. Yes B. No

7. What type of flavour would you like to have?A. Sweet corn C. Chilly CornB. Salty Corn D. Pepper Corn

8. What is your one time expenditure when you buy POPCORN?A. Below 10 Rs C. 25-40 RsB. 10-25 Rs D. Above 40 Rs

9. Which one you prefer? A. Ready-to-eat Popcorn B. Readymade Popcorn

10.These days POPCORN can be made easily at home as well. Have you



Ever tried at home?A. Yes B. No

11.Which flavor of POPCORN would you like to have?

12.Do you want it to be delivered to your Home?A. Yes B. No

13.POPCORN will best suit with?A. Hot Beverages B. Cold Beverages

14.What kind of POPCORN would you like to have?A. Hot B. Cold

15.Do you like to have coloured POPCORN?A. Yes B. No

16.How is POPCORN different from other Snacks?

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. Book References

Managerial Economics authorized by D. M. Mithani

2. Websites

www.popcorn.com

www.atfoods.com

www.google.com



http://www.google.com/

http://www.atfoods.com/

http://www.popcorn.com/

www.wikipedia.com



http://www.wikipedia.com/

demand forecasting of "popcorn" in hubli-dharwad

Data & Analytics

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