dayton and southwest ohio economy richard stock, phd. business research group university of dayton
TRANSCRIPT
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Dayton and Southwest Ohio
Economy
Richard Stock, PhD.Business Research Group
University of Dayton
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State of the Dayton Metro Area(in December Each Year, 2000-2013)
• Dayton lost 32,400 jobs in the two year period from December, 2007 to December, 2009.
• It recovered 7,900 of those jobs in the 2 years to December, 2011
• That recovery has stagnated in the last two years
443.1
404.7
372.3
378.5
320
340
360
380
400
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440
460
Employment (in 000s)
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State of the Dayton Metro Area: Last 4 Years(in December Each Year, 2009-2013)
• Growth was steady in the Dec. 2009 to Dec. 2011 period.
• Last 24 months, loss of 1700 jobs
372.3
376
380.2 379.7378.5
368
370
372
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380
382
Employment (in 000s)
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Total Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, Dec. 2000-2013
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Construction Employment Index: Ohio and the United States, Dec. 2000-2013
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Manufacturing Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the U.S., Dec. 2000-2013
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Trade, Transportation, Utilities Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States,
December 2000-2013
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Prof. & Bus. Serv. Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, December 2000-
2013
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Education and Health Services Index: Dayton & Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, December 2000-2013
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Government Employment Index: Dayton & Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, December 2000-2013
Note that Government Employment Actually Rose in Dayton Metro from 2008 to 2010
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Federal Government Employment Index: Dayton & Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, December 2000-
2013
Note that Government Employment Actually Rose in Dayton Metro from 2008 to 2010
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Local Government Employment Index: Dayton & Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, December 2000-2013
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The Income Piece
• How Big is the Wage Problem?
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Average Weekly Earnings in Dayton and Cincinnati relative to Ohio and U.S., November 2007-2013 (2013 Constant Dollars)
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Relationship to National Economy
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Cyclical factors
• How closely linked is the Dayton Economy to the National Economy?
• From December, 2002 to December, 2013, 92% of variation in monthly Dayton Metro Area unemployment rate can be explained by variation in the U.S unemployment rate
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United States, Dayton Metropolitan Area Monthly Unemployment Rates, December 2002-December 2013
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United States, Dayton Metropolitan Area Monthly Unemployment Rates, December 2006-December 2013
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United States, Dayton Metropolitan Area Monthly Single Housing Units Building Permits, August 2001-November 2013
(Aug 2001 =100)
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Dayton Metropolitan Area Monthly Single Housing Units Building Permits, November 2002-November 2013
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Number of Unemployed in Dayton Metropolitan Areas, 1990-November 2013
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Forecasting the Next 3 years• Note that the Dayton Metropolitan Areas has
mirrored the Country as a whole more closely in the last few years.
• What are the implications of the National Economic Forecast?
• Federal Government and Local Employment Declines Have Already Taken a Toll. How Much More?
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Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank (4th Quarter Estimates)
Unemployment Rate (%)
CPI Inflation Rate (%)Real GDP (%)
Headline CoreQuarterly data:
2014:Q1 2.0 6.7 1.7 1.82014:Q2 3.0 6.6 1.7 1.82014:Q3 2.8 6.4 1.9 1.92014:Q4 2.7 6.3 2.0 1.92015:Q1 3.2 6.2 2.0 2.1
Annual average data: 2014 2.8 6.5 1.8 1.92015 3.1 6.1 2.0 2.02016 3.1 5.7 2.1 2.12017 2.4 5.5
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Implications of National Forecast for the Dayton Metropolitan Economy
Unemployment
Rate (%)
Dayton MetroReal GDP (%) Unemployment
RateNumber of
Unemployed
Quarterly data: 2014:Q1 2.0 6.7 6.9 27,5002014:Q2 3.0 6.6 6.8 27,2002014:Q3 2.8 6.4 6.6 26,6002014:Q4 2.7 6.3 6.5 26,3002015:Q1 3.2 6.2
Annual average data: 2014 2.8 6.5 6.7 26,6002015 3.1 6.1 6.3 25,4002016 3.1 5.7 5.9 23,8002017 2.4 5.5 5.7 23,000
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Defense Budget Squeeze Impact• Number of Jobs Linked to Wright Patterson Air Force Base
Activities ~ 25,000 to 30,000• Cuts are likely to be program specific for particular big ticket
items, impact on Wright Patterson related employment is uncertain.
• If one assumes a 10% drop in WPAFB related employment over a 3 to 4 year period, that implies 2500 to 3000 fewer jobs or an annual impact of about a 1000 jobs.
• It represents a head wind on local job growth• One potential upside – potential wins in next BRAC rounds
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Summary• Job growth in the Dayton Metro Area economy has
stalled in the last 24 months• The Dayton Metro Area Unemployment rate remains
closely linked to National levels but is lagging behind• While the Dayton economy mirrors more closely the
national economy in 2013 than at any point in the last 20 years, reductions in planned defense spending will constitute a headwind over the next few years.