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COVID-19 REPORT 10TH EDITION
GLOBAL OUTBREAK OVERVIEW AND ITS IMPACT ON THE ENERGY SECTOR
14 MAY 2020
PUBLIC VERSION
Executive summaryOutbreak status and outlookImpact on oil demandImpact on the oil and gas industry
Table of Contents
2
3
Executive summaryReopening appears possible in some countries, could lead to new coronavirus waves in others
In this edition of the Covid-19 report we ask the broad question; Can societies return to near normal activity without being hit by a new wave of coronavirus outbreak? In more technical language, can the effective reproduction number be kept below 1 while societies return to pre-Covid-19 social and economic activity levels –before a vaccine is in place? Our Effective Prevention scenario, as laid out in the second part of this report, illustrates what a “yes” answer to these questions would look like.
As a part of our analyses, we have correlated Google mobility data with empirical reproduction numbers on a country by country basis. This offers insight into a few key findings, namely that certain levels of reduced activity at transit and recreational places will be required to achieve specific Reff values. We also demonstrate that a handful of countries have significantly fewer people in the most infectious phase of the virus as of today, versus in March. Thus, reopening seems possible in these countries, while other nations are still far away from being able to reopen in a responsible manner.
Still, reopening appears imminent in many countries and new waves of coronavirus outbreak are likely to come, requiring further mitigation. This leads to what we call the Mitigation scenario. In the section discussing the impact of the pandemic on the oil market, we describe how oil demand recovery will unfold differently under these two scenarios, the Effective Prevention scenario and the Mitigation scenario. In the Effective Prevention scenario, we see 6 million barrels per day of oil demand returning every month for the next few months, driven by a comeback of road traffic.
Drivers of the Reproductive number, page 7
Could we see a new wave of infection? page 14
Effective Prevention demand recovery outlook, page 23
Executive summaryOutbreak status and outlook
• Global overview• Key country focus
Impact on oil demandImpact on the oil and gas industry
Table of Contents
4
Global overviewThe true cumulative number of people infected globally today is likely 64 million
Number of true and reported casesCases (log scale), Current measures scenario*
*Assumes current measures remain in place during forecasting intervalSource: Rystad Energy Covid-19 research and analysis; Worldometer
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000Estimated true cases
Reported cases
Fatalities
As of 11 May, 64 million people have likely been infected with Covid-19, according to our updated model based on reported fatalities.
There were 4.2 million reported cases as of 11 May, a number which our analysis suggests represents just 7% of true cases. Reported cases are now growing at only ~2% per day slightly lower than ~3% per day in preceding weeks.
Registered fatalities globally were almost 290,000 as of 11 May, a number which also grew by 2% over the last week versus the 3-4% in preceding weeks. True fatalitities is probably significantly higher, as many countries have insufficient reporting of covid-19 deaths outside hospitals.
The forecast assumes that current strict measures remain in place until the end of June, which is not likely since many countries are now in the process of reopening societies.
5
Forecast
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 84 91 98 105
US
ItalySpain
France
China
UK
Global overviewStill no sign of slow-down in spread in Brazil, Russia, India and Bangladesh
Number of reported cases, key countriesCases (log scale)
Source: Rystad Energy Covid-19 research and analysis; Worldometer
Iran
South Korea
Japan
6
For further details please see our
Covid-19 dashboard at rystadenergy.com.
Brazil Germany
Bangladesh
India
Russia
The spread is still growing in the US, although at a much slower rate than previously.
Brazil, Russia, India and Bangladesh each have populations of over 100 million people that are struggling with aggressive spreading of the Covid-19 virus –still doubling every 8-10 days.
However, according to our analyses it appears that Brazil, Russia and India currently are at the peak in terms of true active cases, and we expect this to show up in the reported active cases during the second half of May. For Bangladesh, the peak in true active cases is likely still ahead of us, probably around end-May, meaning that the peak in reported cases will likely be seen mid-June.
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.03.23.43.63.84.0
Japan S. Korea USA France
Global overviewDrivers of the Reproduction number – transit station activity
Effective Reproduction number (Reff)(7-day average)
Source: Rystad Energy Covid-19 model; Google Mobility data
7
1 2 3
-90.0
-80.0
-70.0
-60.0
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
Japan S. Korea USA France
Transit station activity (subway, bus, train stations)Percent from normal levels (7-day average)
1 2 3These graphs show completely independent figures for activity at transit stations and Reff based on our modelling, where fatalities are an important input factor.
As seen, “normal”public transport (phase 1) gives high Reff , which means new covid cases are growing. Quick and fast reduction, like in France, seems to be needed to get Reff below 1.0 and thus a decline in new cases.
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40DenmarkNorwaySweden
Global overviewDifferences in Scandinavia based on policies and population densityTransit station activity (subway, bus or train stations)Percent above or below normal levels based on Google mobility data (7-day average)
To the left we see stays at transit stations in Denmark, Norway and Sweden from mid-February to the start of May. As seen, Sweden had a more liberal approach with activity at transit stations only falling by 30%. However, Norway having a lower Reffthan Denmark is not explained by transit station activity alone. One driver could be that Denmark is more densely populated.Fatality rate as of 12 May per 100,000: - Denmark: 9- Norway: 4- Sweden: 33
Source: Rystad Energy Covid-19 model; Google Mobility data
8
Start of 21-day period22 Feb 13 March 3 April
Country Reff Reff Reff
Denmark 2.5 1.0 0.9
Norway 2.1 1.1 0.7
Sweden 2.7 1.4 1.0
1 2 3
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40ArgentinaBrazilChile
Global overviewSouth America variations partly explained by timing and implementation of policies Transit station activity (subway, bus or train stations)Percent above or below normal levels based on Google mobility data (7-day average)
To the left we see transit station activity in Argentina, Brazil and Chile, which shows that Argentina had the fastest and deepest reduction in activity. Moreover, Chile was faster and more consistent than Brazil. Brazil also had carnival celebrations from 1 March to 6 March, which could help explain differences in fatality rates so far. Fatality rate as of 12 May per 100,000: - Argentina: 0.7- Brazil: 5.5- Chile: 1.8
Source: Rystad Energy Covid-19 model; Google Mobility data
9
Start of 21-day period22 Feb 13 March 3 April
Country Reff Reff Reff
Argentina 2.4 1.2 1.1
Brazil 2.9 1.5 1.2
Chile 2.8 1.4 1.1
1 2 3
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40AustraliaNew ZealandNew York CityUSA
Global overviewUSA, Australia and New Zealand differences only partly explained by transit activityTransit station activity (subway, bus or train stations)Percent above or below normal levels based on Google mobility data (7-day average)
To the left we see transit station activity in Australia, New Zealand and United States, with New York City also shown separately. More restrictive policies on public transportation in Australia and New Zealand could explain some differences. However, the extreme virus spread in New York City also has other drivers, like population density. Fatality rate as of 12 May per 100,000: - Australia: 0.4- New Zealand: 0.4- New York City: 140- USA: 25
Source: Rystad Energy Covid-19 model; Google Mobility data
10
Start of 21-day period22 Feb 13 March 3 April
Country Reff Reff Reff
Australia 2.0 1.0 0.9 New Zealand 2.5 1.7 0.8
USA 2.9 1.4 0.9
1 2 3
Global overviewSummary on Effective Reproduction number (Reff) and mobility data
Effective Reproduction number (Reff)
Growth in new cases per day*(percent)
Doubling time/ halving time (days)
Transit activity (bus, train, subway)
Recreational activity (shopping, sports, party)
Comment
5.0 36% 2.3 Dense city ”Festival” Festivals, very dense cities
3.0 23 % 3.3 Large city Active city life Large-city life with public transport
2.5 19% 4.0 Regular city Active suburban life Mixed suburban life, some public transit
2.0 14 % 5.3 Rural transport Normal rural life Normal rural life
1.5 8 % 9 ~ -10% No hugs/handshake Social distance, like in Japan
1.2 4 % 20 ~ -15% ~ -10% No concerts/gyms/parties/seminars
1.1 2 % 38 ~ -20% ~ -15% .. + wash hands, keep distance
1.0 0 % flat ~ -30% ~ -25% 1 m and <50 people, like Sweden
0.9 -2 % - 35 ~ -50% ~ -40% 2 m and <5 people, home office, bars closed
0.8 -4 % - 16 ~ -70% ~ -50% Home quarantine, schools closed
0.7 -7 % - 10 ~ -80% ~ -60% Curfew, like France in April
*We are using Generation Time (GT) = 5.25 (ref: Ferretti et al, 8 May 2020: ”Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing”)Source: Rystad Energy Covid-19 model; Google Mobility data;
11
The actual reproduction rate and growth/decline in new Covid-19 cases is the sum of many factors like mobility, events and greeting behavior. Mobility data shows that similar figures could lead to different Reff. We have learned new ways of keeping social distance, many use facemasks, and sick people stay home. The key question is whether societies can get back to a desirable level of social and economic activity but still keep at Reff at a level below 1.0.
Global overviewCould we see a new wave? Are more people infectious in May versus in March? (1/2)
Number of Covid-19 people: True active cases and people in the infectious period
357,165
294,387
105,845
20,259
4,756
36,884
132,363
200,632
209,144
265,234
98,139
58,826
65,392
21,339
27,371
20,344
13,610
63,802
104,565
254,746
- 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000
Italy
Spain
France
Germany
Sweden
Netherlands
USA
13.mar.2013.apr.2013.mai.2013.mar.20213.apr.20213.mai.203
12
Infectious people 13 MarchInfectious people 13 AprilInfectious people 13 MayTrue active cases 13 MarchTrue active cases 13 AprilTrue active cases 13 May
As of 13 March, most governments had introduced strict measures for social distance. This happened after two to six weeks of relatively free spread of the virus, leading to a large number of active cases and people in the most infectious period.*
As of 13 May, governments are planning to loosen measures. Do we then risk a second wave of infection?
For Italy, Spain and Germany, loosening seems possible given that the number of infectious people is far below March 13 levels. For Sweden, Netherlands and USA,the risk of loosening seems high given that there are more infectiouse people today than in March. However, with focus on policies adapted to state/city level, this could potentialy still be done.
1.5 mill
1.5 mill
2.2 mill
8.0 mill4.7 mill
1.5 mill
* Ferretti et al and FHI: from being infected: 3 days of exposed period, then 2 days of presymptomatc, then 5 days of symptomatic. 40% are assumed asymptoimatic. Source: Rystad Energy Covid-19 model; Ferretti (May 8, 2020)
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Reported new casesReported new deaths (RHS)
Key country focusUS may have peaked in active cases, assuming measures are not eased too quickly
The US is starting to ease preventive measures and open up the country again. This has still not resulted in any increase in reported cases and deaths – any effects from such changes will potentially not be seen in reported numbers until 10-14 days after the measures are eased. Our forecast assumes that current preventive measures will remain in place during the forecast period. In this scenario, we expect the total number of infected to flatten out at around 14 million. If we assume the country is opened up to follow in line with our Mitigation Scenario, where measures are eased quicker, then the number of infected could rise to 15.5 million and we could see growth in reported new cases again in early-to-mid June.Daily reported new cases and deaths have been declining since the second half of April. Easing of measures will likely be slow and steady and happen in a controlled fashion to reduce the risk of an aggressive resurgence in new cases.
*Assumes current measures remain in place during forecasting interval Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis; Worldometer
Daily new cases and deathsTrailing seven-day average
For further details please see our
Covid-19 dashboard at rystadenergy.com.
United States, estimated total and active true casesNumber of cases; Current measures scenario*
Reported cases1,385,834 0
2,000,0004,000,0006,000,0008,000,000
10,000,00012,000,00014,000,00016,000,000
Forecast
Active true casesestimated to have peaked
Total true cases flattening out at 14 millionTotal true cases now
almost 14 million
New cases in decline
13
New fatalities in decline
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,000
Reported new casesReported new deaths (RHS)
Key country focus Brazil is still growing in new cases, but may be about to peak
*Assumes current measures remain in place during forecasting interval Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis; Worldometer
Daily new cases and deathsTrailing seven-day average
For further details please see our
Covid-19 dashboard at rystadenergy.com.
Brazil, estimated total and active true casesNumber of cases; Current measures scenario*
Reported cases 169,143 0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
01-A
pr04
-Apr
07-A
pr10
-Apr
13-A
pr16
-Apr
19-A
pr22
-Apr
25-A
pr28
-Apr
01-M
ay04
-May
07-M
ay10
-May
13-M
ay16
-May
19-M
ay22
-May
25-M
ay28
-May
31-M
ay03
-Jun
06-J
un09
-Jun
12-J
un15
-Jun
18-J
un21
-Jun
24-J
un27
-Jun
30-J
un
Forecast
Active true cases estimated to have peaked, will likely show up in reported numbers end-May (two weeks later due to incubation)
Total true cases flattening out at 5.5 million
Total true cases now passed 5 million
New cases still increasing
14
New fatalities also still
increasing
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
0100200300400500600700800900
Reported new casesReported new deaths (RHS)
Key country focus Bangladesh likely still has the peak ahead of it
*Assumes current measures remain in place during forecasting interval Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis; Worldometer
Daily new cases and deathsTrailing seven-day average
For further details please see our
Covid-19 dashboard at rystadenergy.com.
Bangladesh, estimated total and active true casesNumber of cases; Current measures scenario*
Reported cases 15,691 0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
01-A
pr04
-Apr
07-A
pr10
-Apr
13-A
pr16
-Apr
19-A
pr22
-Apr
25-A
pr28
-Apr
01-M
ay04
-May
07-M
ay10
-May
13-M
ay16
-May
19-M
ay22
-May
25-M
ay28
-May
31-M
ay03
-Jun
06-J
un09
-Jun
12-J
un15
-Jun
18-J
un21
-Jun
24-J
un27
-Jun
30-J
un
Forecast
Active true cases to peak end-May
Total true cases flattening out at 0.5 million
Total true cases now around 350,000
New cases still increasing
15
New fatalities not stabilizing
Executive summaryOutbreak status and outlookImpact on oil demand
• Global overview• Ground transportation and road fuels
Impact on the oil and gas industry
Table of Contents
16
17
Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Jan
Mar
May Ju
lS
epN
ov Jan
Mar
May Ju
lS
epN
ov
2020 2021
Effective retainment Pre-virus
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Jan
Mar
May Ju
lS
epN
ov Jan
Mar
May Ju
lS
epN
ov
2020 2021
Mitigation Pre-virus
V-shaped recovery:• Demand hits bottom in April 2020, followed by a strong rebound in June and
July.• Demand impact lasts into 2021, with 2019 levels reached towards the end of
year.
Key assumptions:• Governments loosening measures.• People preferring personal vehicles over public transport.• Unemployment remains at manageable levels.• Work-from home policies are gradually phased out.
L-shaped recovery:• Demand hits bottom in April 2020, with a weaker recovery period where road
fuel remains below 2019 levels through 2022.
Key assumptions:• Work-from-home policies continuing into 2021.• Unemployment rates cause reduced commuter demand and less personal
vehicle use.
r-shaped recovery:• Demand stabilizes at a new normal in 3Q20. • Follows the previous year’s trend for the rest of 2021, with moderate growth.
Key assumptions:• Gradual opening of borders as government lockdowns loosen in 2Q20.• Consumer confidence increases and short-haul and leisure travel begins to
recover• Business travel is expected to recover faster.
U-shaped recovery:• Demand stabilizes at a new normal in 2Q21. • Follows the previous year’s trend for the rest of 2021 with low growth.
Key assumptions:• Slow opening of borders as government lockdowns are extended through 3Q20. • Consumer confidence remains low with short-haul and leisure travel slowly
recovering. • Business travel is still expected to recover at a faster pace than leisure travel.
Global overview Two main recovery profiles: Effective Prevention and Mitigation
Effe
ctive
Pre
vent
ion
Miti
gatio
n
020,00040,00060,00080,000
100,000120,000140,000
Jan
Mar
May Ju
lS
epN
ov Jan
Mar
May Ju
lS
epN
ov
2020 2021
Effective retainment Pre-virus
020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000
Jan
Mar
May Ju
lS
epN
ov Jan
Mar
May Ju
lS
epN
ov
2020 2021
Mitigation Pre-virus
Jet fuel demand levels 2020-2021 Road fuel demand levels 2020-2021
Global overviewFrom a low of 72 million bpd, global demand recovers by 6 million bpd every month, May-JulyGlobal oil demand impact analysis of Covid-19 by region, levels and changes vs. pre-virus estimatesThousand barrels per day
Remaining barrelsOil demand has taken an r-shaped dip, reaching a low point in April and improving in May and June.December 2020 level expected at 96 million bpd, with potential downside of 90 million bpd, with significant downside risks far into 2021.Average demand for 2020 is expected at 89 million bpd, a drop of 11% from 2019, and 98 million bpd in 2021.Europe is the worst hit, with demand in April down 35% year-on-year, and 13% demand decline expected for 2020 as a whole.
Lost barrelsAbout 4 billon barrels will be removed from global oil demand during 2020. More than half of this decline comes from areas outside the main demand pools of East Asia, Europe and North America.In our downside scenario, we see global demand impact remaining down by 10.5 million bpd in December 2020 and 4.8 million bpd in December 2021.
Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis
18
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
-30,000
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
-30,000
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
East Asia Europe North America Rest of World
2019 Pre-virus Mitigation Previous
19
Ground transportation and road fuelsRoad traffic levels among top oil consumers clearly recovering from the bottom
Source: TomTom Traffic Index; Google Maps; Baidu; Korea Expressway Corporation; Rystad Energy Global City Traffic Database
Russia
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
1-M
ar5-
Mar
9-M
ar13
-Mar
17-M
ar21
-Mar
25-M
ar29
-Mar
2-Ap
r6-
Apr
10-A
pr14
-Apr
18-A
pr22
-Apr
26-A
pr30
-Apr
4-M
ay8-
May
Germany
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
1-M
ar5-
Mar
9-M
ar13
-Mar
17-M
ar21
-Mar
25-M
ar29
-Mar
2-Ap
r6-
Apr
10-A
pr14
-Apr
18-A
pr22
-Apr
26-A
pr30
-Apr
4-M
ay8-
May
France
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
1-M
ar5-
Mar
9-M
ar13
-Mar
17-M
ar21
-Mar
25-M
ar29
-Mar
2-Ap
r6-
Apr
10-A
pr14
-Apr
18-A
pr22
-Apr
26-A
pr30
-Apr
4-M
ay8-
May
China
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
1-M
ar5-
Mar
9-M
ar13
-Mar
17-M
ar21
-Mar
25-M
ar29
-Mar
2-Ap
r6-
Apr
10-A
pr14
-Apr
18-A
pr22
-Apr
26-A
pr30
-Apr
4-M
ay8-
May
India
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
1-M
ar5-
Mar
9-M
ar13
-Mar
17-M
ar21
-Mar
25-M
ar29
-Mar
2-Ap
r6-
Apr
10-A
pr14
-Apr
18-A
pr22
-Apr
26-A
pr30
-Apr
4-M
ay8-
May
South Korea
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
1-M
ar5-
Mar
9-M
ar13
-Mar
17-M
ar21
-Mar
25-M
ar29
-Mar
2-Ap
r6-
Apr
10-A
pr14
-Apr
18-A
pr22
-Apr
26-A
pr30
-Apr
4-M
ay8-
May
United States
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
1-M
ar5-
Mar
9-M
ar13
-Mar
17-M
ar21
-Mar
25-M
ar29
-Mar
2-Ap
r6-
Apr
10-A
pr14
-Apr
18-A
pr22
-Apr
26-A
pr30
-Apr
4-M
ay8-
May
Brazil
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
1-M
ar5-
Mar
9-M
ar13
-Mar
17-M
ar21
-Mar
25-M
ar29
-Mar
2-Ap
r6-
Apr
10-A
pr14
-Apr
18-A
pr22
-Apr
26-A
pr30
-Apr
4-M
ay8-
May
Mexico
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
1-M
ar5-
Mar
9-M
ar13
-Mar
17-M
ar21
-Mar
25-M
ar29
-Mar
2-Ap
r6-
Apr
10-A
pr14
-Apr
18-A
pr22
-Apr
26-A
pr30
-Apr
4-M
ay8-
May
Road traffic levels versus normal, 1 March to 10 May 7-day moving average, percent difference versus mean of traffic during the same weekday in same month for 2019
0% = 2019 level
2020 level
Overall road traffic has been recovering since bottoming out in early March7-day moving average, percent difference versus mean of traffic during the same weekday* in the same month for 2019
South Korea has successfully implemented a test, trace, and contain system that has seen robust road traffic activity levels compared to other countries.
After remaining below 2019 levels for most of 2020, data from the first ten days of May shows that road traffic is approaching normal levels.
Workday traffic has picked up pace in MayHour-by-hour percentage difference in number of vehicles on roads during the same month in 2020 versus 2019
But weekend activity is still below normalHour-by-hour percentage difference in number of vehicles on roads during the same month in 2020 versus 2019
Activity levels look to have picked up significantly across different times of the day in May.
The largest jump in activity was seen during the middle of the day during workdays.
Weekend activity is still mostly lagging behind 2019 levels, with only early mid-day traffic reaching 2019 levels.
Activity levels during weekend evenings are still well below normal.
20
Ground transportation and road fuels South Korea shows that recovery is possible, but it will require a lot from governments
*Adjusted for public holidaysSource: Korea Expressway Corporation; Rystad Energy Global City Traffic Database
South Korea
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23Hour of day
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21Hour of day
May 2020
Mar 2020
Feb 2020
Apr 2020
Ground transportation and road fuels Europe sees positive activity trends on loosening measures
21
Traffic levels versus normal for last 7 daysPercent difference, year-on-year, all daysAfrica Americas Asia & Australia
-90% -60% -30% 0% 30%
Guinea-BissauGabon
ZambiaSouth Africa
TogoMadagascar
EthiopiaMozambique
NamibiaZimbabwe
EgyptCote d'Ivoire
BeninGhana
TanzaniaLesothoSenegal
KenyaAngola
MaliTunisiaGambia
Burkina FasoCameroon
AlgeriaBurundi
NigerSierra Leone
LibyaMalawiLiberiaNigeria
MoroccoMauritania
RwandaDR Congo
CongoBotswanaMauritiusUganda
Europe & Middle East
Rystad Energy Global City Traffic Database covers road traffic in 1,200+ cities
and 150+ countries
-90% -60% -30% 0% 30%
UruguayNicaraguaArgentina
JamaicaGuatemala
United StatesChile
MexicoParaguay
CanadaHonduras
Puerto RicoBrazil
Costa RicaEcuador
Dominican RepublicVenezuela
HaitiGuinea
BahamasColombia
El SalvadorPanama
PeruBolivia
-90% -60% -30% 0% 30%
LaosPapua New Guinea
South KoreaVietnam
China, Hong Kong…Azerbaijan
ChinaMongolia
CambodiaAustraliaArmeniaGeorgia
JapanIndonesia
New ZealandKazakhstanUzbekistan
IndiaKyrgyzstan
ThailandMalaysiaPakistan
SingaporeMyanmar
TurkmenistanTajikistan
PhilippinesBangladeshAfghanistan
Sri Lanka
Current weekPrevious week
-90% -60% -30% 0% 30%
LiechtensteinBosnia and…
CroatiaIceland
MontenegroLithuaniaDenmarkBulgaria
GermanyAustria
CzechiaSweden
LatviaPoland
SlovakiaSlovenia
SerbiaBelarusFinland
PalestineSwitzerlandNetherlands
NorwayHungaryUkraine
San MarinoEstonia
QatarTurkeyOman
MoldovaGreece
LebanonRomania
IranLuxembourg
CyprusItaly
BelgiumIsraelSpain
PortugalJordanKuwait
Saudi ArabiaRussia
AlbaniaUAE
United KingdomFrance
AndorraBahrainIreland
Iraq
Source: TomTom Traffic Index; Google Maps; Baidu; Korea Expressway Corporation; Rystad Energy Global City Traffic Database
Summary data table for total liquids demand after Covid-19 “effective retention” case
*Includes Mainland China, Hong Kong and TaiwanSource: Rystad Energy research and analysis
22
MMbbl/d Change year-on-year
2020 2020 Q1 2020 2020 Q12019 2020 2021 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q April May June 2020 2021 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q April May June
Global 99.5 88.8 98.2 92.0 78.1 90.3 94.8 71.9 78.0 84.4 -10.8% 10.5% -7.3% -20.7% -9.8% -5.4% -27.1% -21.0% -14.2%Road 47.4 42.3 46.9 42.9 36.7 43.9 45.8 31.6 37.5 41.1 -10.6% 10.9% -8.0% -22.6% -8.3% -3.7% -33.3% -21.0% -13.4%
Aviation 7.2 4.8 6.8 5.9 2.4 4.9 6.1 2.2 1.8 3.0 -33.5% 41.5% -15.9% -67.5% -34.8% -14.7% -68.7% -74.9% -59.2%
Other 44.9 41.7 44.4 43.2 39.0 41.5 42.9 38.0 38.8 40.3 -7.3% 6.7% -5.3% -11.0% -7.2% -5.7% -13.5% -12.2% -7.3%
United States 20.5 18.4 20.0 19.3 15.8 19.0 19.5 14.1 15.8 17.5 -10.0% 8.5% -4.7% -22.2% -8.3% -5.0% -29.6% -22.1% -15.1%Road 11.2 10.1 10.9 10.3 8.7 10.6 10.6 7.1 9.0 9.9 -10.5% 8.1% -6.2% -24.1% -6.8% -4.6% -36.9% -20.5% -15.1%
Aviation 1.7 1.2 1.5 1.6 0.7 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.4 1.0 -29.0% 24.1% -1.7% -62.1% -29.7% -20.4% -59.4% -79.8% -47.2%
Other 7.5 7.1 7.6 7.4 6.5 7.1 7.5 6.3 6.4 6.7 -4.9% 6.4% -3.1% -9.4% -5.3% -2.0% -10.7% -10.2% -7.2%
China* 15.1 13.8 15.6 12.7 13.8 14.3 14.4 13.6 13.6 14.3 -8.4% 12.9% -15.8% -6.8% -5.3% -5.9% -6.3% -12.4% -1.4%Road 6.1 5.6 6.5 4.8 5.5 6.0 6.2 5.3 5.5 5.8 -7.6% 15.6% -22.4% -6.7% -2.6% 1.6% -8.7% -12.4% 1.6%
Aviation 0.9 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.5 -29.4% 51.1% -36.7% -46.2% -25.4% -10.2% -42.6% -51.5% -44.5%
Other 8.1 7.5 8.1 7.4 7.8 7.5 7.4 7.8 7.7 7.9 -6.7% 7.6% -8.4% -2.5% -4.8% -10.9% -0.7% -8.2% 1.8%
Europe 14.2 12.4 13.7 13.1 10.4 12.8 13.5 9.4 10.3 11.5 -12.6% 10.0% -7.3% -26.7% -12.3% -4.2% -34.6% -26.5% -18.9%Road 7.0 6.3 6.8 6.4 5.3 6.6 6.8 4.5 5.3 6.1 -10.9% 8.3% -5.7% -24.8% -9.4% -3.6% -36.8% -23.4% -14.0%
Aviation 1.5 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 -39.3% 54.9% -14.0% -84.8% -42.3% -10.8% -88.3% -88.1% -78.3%
Other 5.7 5.3 5.5 5.5 4.9 5.3 5.4 4.8 4.8 5.1 -8.0% 4.4% -7.6% -13.6% -7.4% -3.3% -18.1% -14.1% -8.2%
Executive summaryOutbreak status and outlookImpact on oil demandImpact on the oil and gas industry
• Global market outlook• Market segment focus
Table of Contents
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50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
Apr30
6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120
Available crude working storage capacity (inversed)Available operational (95% of working capacity, inversed)Available gasoline working storage capacityAvailable operational capacity (95% of working capacity)Floating storage (crude)Crude runs (demand)Crude supply (current OilMarketCube, downside risk)Crude supply (with required shut-ins to balance)
Crude and condensate day-by-day balancing scenario (Day 0 = 30 April 2020)Storage or capacity (Million barrels) Runs or crude supply (Million barrels per day)
Global market outlook More crude supply reductions needed to avoid running out of operational crude storage
Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis, OilMarketCube
24
Operational onshore storage exhausted
mid-July?
Working onshore storage capacity nearly exhausted end-August
Today = 13 May 20200 = 30 April 2020 Days
We have revised up our estimates for Rest-of-World available working crude storage capacity and now assess the available capacity at the start of May at nearly 600 million barrels. Most likely we will not reach the “storage wall”, but that will require toil supply reduced more than our current estimates, as shown in this report. These reductions could stem from additional OPEC core cuts in June, more non-OPEC+ shut-ins not yet captured, and lower April-June supply in opaque geographies not yet visible to the market.
In practical terms, however, local storage constraints will hit bottlenecks before global capacity does. If only considering operational storage capacity (95% of working capacity), this will be exhausted around mid-July according to our analysis. If so, this will lead to additional upstream supply reductions to balance crude demand.
Global market outlookUS oil* production outlook by forecast time stamp and scenario
*Crude oil and lease condensate productionSource: Rystad Energy ShaleWellCube, Rystad Energy OilMarketCube, Rystad Energy research and analysis
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,0001/26/2020 (base case)4/24/2020 (base case)5/13/2020 (no curtailments)5/13/2020 (base case)5/13/2020 (rapid reactivation)
Thou
sand
bar
rels
per
day
(bpd
)
25
26
Market segment focusWill Big Oil* continue to make capital investments in renewables?
Source: Rystad Energy RenewableCube
$-
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
*Includes BP, Shell, Equinor, Chevron, ENI, TOTAL, Petronas, Pertamina, Repsol & GALP
The chart plots the capital investments made by a group* of E&P companies into utility scale renewables.
In recent weeks, additional E&P companies have committed to net-zero carbon targets and reaffirmed their commitment to investing in renewables.
Over the last decade, renewable investments have averaged just under $1 billion per year. From now, we expect to see a clear boom in renewable investment, increasing to $4.5 billion in 2023. We believe this level will be maintained, as capital intensive offshore wind projects have already taken financials decisions (FID) and have been committed.
Renewables capex by 10 E&P companies (million USD)
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OIL MARKET WEEKLY – Demand report, a weekly report with:• An overview of global oil demand• Oil demand impact in two COVID-19 mitigation scenarios• Impact of oil demand in aviation, ground transportation and road fuels
OIL MARKET WEEKLY – Balances report:• A weekly Commentary with the latest oil market observations• A weekly Executive Summary on the oil market balances, oil supply and
demand, and the overall oil market view
OIL MARKET DASHBOARDS and Excel data on:• Oil demand analysis dashboard: split by country, transport type, aviation• COVID-19 dashboard: oil demand impacting two COVID-19 mitigation
scenarios
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