rystad energy - forecast for global shale - short

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  • 7/28/2019 Rystad Energy - Forecast for Global Shale - Short

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    This document is the property of Rystad Energy. The document must not be reproduced or distributed in any forms, in parts or full without permission from Rystad Energy. The information contained in this documen

    is based on Rystad Energys global oil & gas database UCUBE, public information from company presentations, industry reports, and other, general research by Rystad Energy. The document is not intended to be

    used on a stand-alone basis but in combination with other material or in discuss ions. The document is subject to revisions. Rystad Energy is not responsible for actions taken based on information in this document.

    This document is the property of Rystad Energy. The document must not be reproduced or distributed in any forms, in parts or full without permission from Rystad Energy. The information contained in this documen

    is based on Rystad Energys global oil & gas database UCUBE, public information from company presentations, industry reports, and other, general research by Rystad Energy. The document is not intended to be

    used on a stand-alone basis but in combination with other material or in discuss ions. The document is subject to revisions. Rystad Energy is not responsible for actions taken based on information in this document.

    This document is the property of Rystad Energy. The document must not be reproduced or distributed in any forms, in parts or full without permission from Rystad Energy. The information contained in this documen

    is based on Rystad Energys global oil & gas database UCUBE, public information from company presentations, industry reports, and other, general research by Rystad Energy. The document is not intended to be

    used on a stand-alone basis but in combination with other material or in discuss ions. The document is subject to revisions. Rystad Energy is not responsible for actions taken based on information in this document.

    A long-term global forecast for the

    extraction of oil and gas from shale formations

    Finding Petroleum, London, 10/10/2012

    Per Magnus NysveenRystad Energy

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    Presentation roadmap

    Why is shale extraction so successful across North America?

    What is the likelihood for replicating this in other regions?

    How to get reasonable pre-drill estimates foreconomic recoverable shale resources?

    Subsurface analysis of 200 promising shale formations outside North America

    Surface analysis to estimate expected first commercial production and production profiles

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    Ideal conditions also existed in the Late Cretaceous, with carbonates contributing to

    improved brittleness of the shale, example: Eagle Ford and Niobrara

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    The Cretaceous Rockies

    provides sediment source

    The cretaceous Western

    Interior Seaway createsrich sediments, anoxic

    conditions and calcite

    deposits

    Source: Ron Blakey, Colorado Plateau Geosystems, Inc.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/12/LateCretaceousGlobal.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/12/LateCretaceousGlobal.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/12/LateCretaceousGlobal.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/12/LateCretaceousGlobal.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/12/LateCretaceousGlobal.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/12/LateCretaceousGlobal.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/12/LateCretaceousGlobal.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/12/LateCretaceousGlobal.jpg
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    In North America, more than 20 unconventional shale plays are proved commercial,

    most of these are oil or liquids prone, in a belt east of the Rockies.

    Source: North America Shale Quarterly by Rystad Energy, published by Hart Energy

    U.S. and Canada shale formation - Sweet spots are dark brown

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    Paleozoic to Mesozoic oil

    and liquid prone plays

    east of the Rockies

    thrust and fold belt

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    Example Barnett shale: Well curves, company acreage and geologic potential

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    Chart shows the number of assessed

    shale formations by country. In total

    260 shale formations in 53 countries

    are covered.

    *Note that Others include 17countries with one shale formation

    each.

    What we have assessed: Review of hydrocarbon bearing shales worldwide

    *Others: Afghanistan, Mauritania, Norway, UAE, Thailand, Canada, Turkey, Yemen, Lithuania, Jordan, Malaysia, Uzbekistan, Ghana, Viet nam, Spain, Sweden, Romania

    Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis, Hart Energy

    Assessed shale formations by country

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    0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

    PolandAustria

    Azerbaijan

    DenmarkMoroccoPakistan

    NetherlandsQatar

    TurkmenistanSyria

    Nigeria

    BoliviaKazakhstan

    TunisiaRussia

    Algeria

    Saudi ArabiaColombia

    South Africa

    FranceUkraine

    MexicoUnited Kingdom

    Oman

    KuwaitVenezuela

    IndonesiaLibyaIndia

    AustraliaArgentina

    IranIraq

    Germany

    Others*BrazilChina

    35 formations

    assessed in China

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    Out of 700 billion boe total economic-

    ally recoverable, we estimate 100

    billion is crude oil and condensate.

    This estimate is about 50% of the

    estimate made by EIA for technicallyrecoverable resources.

    Outside North America, we estimate economically extractable shale resources to 700 Bboe

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    Most promising exploration results is

    reported from Argentina. No liquids

    flow rate from fracked wells are repor-

    ted from other countries.

    Most limiting factor is geology. Thereis still no evidence yet that analogues

    to the North American geology, with

    homogenous, unfolded and largely

    un-faulted, brittle and rich source

    rocks, can be found in other parts of

    the world.

    The minimum geologic requirements

    for commercial developments are:

    >2% TOC >100 feet thickness

    > 2000 feet depth

    < 60% clay content

    0,6 - 2,5 Rho

    Homogeneity

    Drill ability

    Flat surface

    Other limiting non-geologic factors arethe lack of capacity for completion

    services, immature infrastructure, lack

    of favorable regulations for leasing,

    high taxes and nationalized oil and

    gas industry.

    We expect no significant commercial shale development before 2020 outside North America

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    Oil and gas production 2020-2055 from shale formations outside North America (kboe/d)

    kboed

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    Production from shales may contribution 10% to global oil and 25% to global gas by 2040

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    Global forecast 2010-2040 of liquids (left) and gas (righ), split by unconventional type (kboe/d)

    UC b th ti l d t b

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    Rystad Energy

    Fjordallen 16, 0250 Oslo

    www.rystadenergy.com

    +47 24 00 42 00

    [email protected]

    Per Magnus Nysveen

    Partner & Head of Analysis

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    Rystad Energy is an independent oil and gas consulting services and

    business intelligence data firm offering global databases, strategy advisory and

    research products for E&P and oil service companies, investors andgovernments. Rystad Energy is headquartered in Oslo, Norway, with additional

    business center locations in UK (London), USA (New York & Houston) and

    South East Asia.

    Rystad Energy Products for Unconventional Assessment

    UCube

    Global and complete, field-by-field database

    NASQ

    North American Shale Quarterly Report, published by Hart Energy

    CanadaShale Newsletter

    Free newsletter on Canadian shale

    UCube - the unconventional database

    http://www.rystadenergy.com/