enercom dallas 2019 · 2019-02-28 · source: rystad energy research and analysis, rystad energy...

$: Enercom Dallas 2019 · 2019-02-28 · Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis, Rystad Energy ShaleWellCube 100 mesh frac sand grade is expected to gain market share in the US,$
Enercom Dallas 2019

February 2019

Office locationsRystad Energy: Independent energy

consulting and business intelligence data

firm established in 2004, headquartered

in Oslo with offices across the globe.

Databases: Covering energy

fundamentals, upstream, oilfield services

and renewable energy industries.

Analytics: Alongside the database suite

we offer an extensive library of market

reports, commentaries and fact sheets.

Consulting: A leading advisor on

strategy, markets and business

development within the energy space

globally.

Not launched yet

Rystad Energy research and analysis involves a four-pronged approach – leveraging

primary intelligence, secondary intelligence, proprietary data & our in-house experts

Methodology

Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis

Primary Intelligence

Secondary Intelligence

In-House Experts

Proprietary Data

- Conversations with network of on-the-ground field experts

- Conversations/interviews with all participants in oil/gas value chain

- Industry-leading experts and technical specialists

- Market research data sets and reports

- Company annual reports, SEC filings,

press releases

- Speeches and presentations by company

leadership and other industry experts

- Analyst reports from leading banks

- State and Federal regulatory filings and

data

- Calibration and collaboration of Rystad Energy’s extensive energy databases

- Proprietary database NASWellCube, containing well attributes data for over 1,000,000 wells

- Asset level data for all oil and gas producing assets around the world

- Rystad Energy possesses a team of in-house experts focused on various markets within the energy space

4

Forecast

Forecast

$4.00

$2.75

$3.73$4.34

$2.63

$2.47$2.99 $3.18 $3.24 $2.98 $3.18 $3.37

$0.00

$1.50

$3.00

$4.50

$6.00

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

$95 $94 $98 $94

$49

$43$51

$65$56 $61

$51$58

$0

$30

$60

$90

$120

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

WTI oil price forecast

2019 - $56 per bbl.

2020 - $61 per bbl.

2021 - $51 per bbl.

2022 - $58 per bbl.

The IMO 2020 regulation will ensure

the oil market remains balanced in

2020; WTI oil price is expected to

increase to $61 per bbl.

Because of this, 2021 would see an

oversupplied oil market unless there

are production cuts.

WTI oil price forecast

Price per barrel (USD)


Henry Hub Natural Gas Price Forecast

Price per MMBtu (USD)

WTI oil price forecast to be $56 per bbl in 2019, with price recovery expected in 2H Oil price to increase to $61 per bbl in 2021

Oil and Natural Gas Price Forecast

5

Forecast

20.2

24.025.7

27.7

18.2

9.9

13.916.8 16.9 17.6 18.7 19.4

0

200

400

600

800

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Fra

cS

tag

es

We

lls

Fra

ck

ed

& S

pu

dHZ Wells Fracked VT/DR Wells Fracked

HZ Wells Spud Total Frac Stages

HZ wells fracked increased by 27% in 2018 and is expected to decrease by 1% in 2019

US Land: Wells Fracked, Wells Spud & Frac StagesThousands

Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis, Rystad Energy ShaleWellCube

Values (thousands) Percent change (%)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2017Δ 2018Δ 2019Δ 2020Δ 2021Δ 2022 Δ

HZ Wells Fracked 8.2 11.9 15.2 15.0 15.2 16.2 16.2 +45% +27% -1% +1% +7% -0%

Total Wells Fracked 9.9 13.9 16.8 16.9 17.6 18.7 19.4 +40% +21% +0% +4% +7% +3%

HZ Wells Spud 7.5 13.6 15.2 14.2 15.7 14.5 16.6 +81% +12% -6% +10% -8% +15%

HZ Frac Stages 248 415 541 560 582 653 658 +67% +31% +3% +4% +12% +1%

Total Frac Stages 253 420 552 569 593 665 674 +66% +31% +3% +4% +12% +1%

D&C Activity Forecast

Total wells fracked peaked out at

~27,700 in 2014; Rystad Energy

doesn’t expect that count to be

reached within the forecast period.

From 2018 to 2019, wells spud count

is projected to decrease by 9%.

Activity expected to decrease in 2021

as oil prices fall.

6

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Permian Eagle Ford Bakken Mid-Con DJ Basin Rest of US Land

Source: Rystad Energy ShaleWellCube

*within ShaleWellCube coverage

US Onshore oil production

Million barrels per day

US onshore oil production increased by 1.5 million bpd in 2018; Rystad Energy expects a

further increase of 1.4 million bpd in 2019 and 0.8 million bpd in 2020

7

Forecast

2935

41

6257

42

80

114123

135

153

166

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Appalachia Permian Eagle Ford Bakken

DJ Basin Mid-Con Powder River Rest of US

US Land: Frac Sand Demand

Million tons

Notes: Appalachia includes Appalachia-Marcellus and Appalachia-Utica; Permian includes Permian-Midland, Permian-Delaware and Permian-Other; Eagle Ford includes Eagle Ford and Woodbine; Mid-Con includes

Mid-Con-SCOOP, Mid-Con-STACK and Mid-Con-Other


Frac sand demand is forecast to grow by 7% in 2019 and 10% in 2020; Permian market

share to increase to 45% in 2019 from 23% in 2014

Frac Sand Demand

Frac sand demand is forecast to

grow at 11% CAGR from 2019 to

2022

Permian frac sand demand is

expected to grow from 55 million tons

in 2019 to 72 million tons in 2022,

representing a 9% CAGR growth

Eagle Ford frac sand demand is

expected to grow from 16 million tons

in 2019 to 21.7 million tons in 2022,

representing a 10% CAGR growth

Mid-Con frac sand demand is

expected stay flat in 2019 and 2020

before increasing to 12.6 million tons

in 2022 representing 12% CAGR

Powder River Basin frac sand

demand is expected to see the

highest year-on-year growth, at 47%

in 2019 to 1.3 million tons

8

Frac Sand Intensity

Lbs per foot

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Marcellus Bakken Eagle FordPermian - Delaware Permian - Midland HaynesvilleUS Land

Source: Rystad Energy ShaleWellCube, Rystad Energy research and analysis

Frac sand intensity across US Land increased 5% from 1Q 2018 to 1Q 2019; frac sand

intensity levels seen to moderately increase to ~2,200 lbs per foot by end of 2022

Frac Sand Intensity Trends

Operators have experimented with

various proppant loadings and are

zoning in on the most optimal

proppant intensity level

Average frac sand intensity level

across the US is estimated to be

~1,920 lbs per foot in 1Q 2019

The Marcellus, Permian-Delaware,

Permian-Midland, Eagle Ford and

Haynesville shale plays now use over

2,000 lbs per foot

Rystad Energy doesn’t expect

average frac sand intensity levels to

increase beyond 2,500 lbs per foot in

the forecast period

Frac Sand Intensity Trends

Play / Basin Δ (18Q1 – 19Q1E)

Permian-Delaware +4%

Permian-Midland +9%

Eagle Ford +4%

Appalachia – Marcellus +13%

Bakken -2%

Haynesville +1%

US Land +5%

9

* 27 people participated in the survey; survey participants work for various companies across the proppant value chain


37% of respondents believe that frac sand intensity levels will decline in 2019 from current

levels

Survey Responses – Frac Sand Intensity*

0%

19%

44%

37%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

Greater than 10%

5% to 10%

0% to 5%

-5% to 0%

Q: Do you think frac sand intensity levels (lbs per foot) will decrease, plateau or increase from

current levels in 2019?

10

* Mesh size market share estimates are based on modelling an incomplete sample dataset that only represents 35% to 45% of population of wells due to lack of reporting in FracFocus


100 mesh frac sand grade is expected to gain market share in the US, increasing from a

market share of 46% in 2018 to 56% in 2021

US Land: Mesh Size Market Share Trends, by Year*

27%35% 33%

23%

13%6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4%

12%

19% 22%

24%

28%

24%19%

14% 13% 12% 11%

40%

36% 32%

35%

36%

36%

36%

34%32%

30%29%

21%

11% 13%18%

23%

34%40%

46%50%

54% 56%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F 2021F

20/40 30/50 40/70 100 mesh

11

Forecast

1,306 1,255 1,242

2,710

3,5453,713

4,023

4,4344,595

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022


Frac sand trucks on road per day forecast to increase from ~3,500 in 2018 to ~4,600 in 2022,

representing a 30% increase

Permian: Frac Sand Trucks on Road per Day

12

Forecast

115

134

198

214 211 216 216

0

50

100

150

200

250

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Northern White Sand In-Basin Sand (Permian)In-Basin Sand (Eagle Ford) In-Basin Sand (Mid-Con)In-Basin Sand (Haynesville) In-Basin Sand (DJ Basin)In-Basin Sand (Uinta) In-Basin Sand (Appalachia)In-Basin Sand (Powder River) Brown SandOther

US Land: Frac Sand Supply

Million tons


Frac sand supply forecast to increase 8% in 2019 after a 47% increase in 2018

Frac Sand Supply (Nameplate)

63 million tons of in-basin frac sand

supply per year from 19 mines is

available in the Permian for 2019 and

beyond

Rystad Energy estimates 30 million

tons of northern white sand supply to

exit the market within the next two

years

There are concerns in the industry

regarding the quality of in-basin sand

in Eagle Ford; adoption rates could

be lower because of this

Preferred Sands and Covia mines in

Mid-Con are currently active; We

expect Titan Lansing and Black

Mountain sand mines to make it to

market

Southern Red Sands is looking to

open an in-basin sand mine in

Kanab, Utah to serve the Uinta and

Powder River Basin

13

34%

34%

11%

6%

6%

1%

0%

5%

3%

Northern White Sand In-Basin Sand (Permian) In-Basin Sand (Eagle Ford)

In-Basin Sand (Mid-Con) In-Basin Sand (Haynesville) In-Basin Sand (DJ Basin)

In-Basin Sand (Uinta) In-Basin Sand (Appalachia) In-Basin Sand (Powder River)

Brown Sand Other


Regional in-basin sands are gaining supply market share from 2018 and beyond; increasing

supply has resulted in northern white sand mine closures and downsizing

Breakdown of Frac Sand Supply, By Type

2014 Frac Sand Supply

Market Share


Market Share


Market Share


Market Share

75%

17%

8%

34%

34%

11%

6%

5%

1%0%

5%

3%

54%

23%

5%

3% 10%

4%

41%

28%

9%

6%

5%

1%6%

4%

14

Forecast

$45

$35

$28

$25

$22$20

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

In-Basin Sand (Permian) Minegate Price Forecast*

USD per ton

* In-basin sand is sourced from sand dunes in West Texas


Minegate prices for in-basin sand in Permian are forecast between $23 and $33 per ton in

2019; prices to remain between $20 and $25 per ton in the future

In-Basin Sand (Permian) Minegate Price Forecast

Operating costs for in-basin sand

mines in West Texas are estimated to

be between $12 and $16 per ton

A margin of $5 to $10 per ton is good

for a commodity like frac sand; we

expect this to be the norm in the

long-term

Under no scenario do we see frac

sand prices increasing in the forecast

period

There are some in-basin sand

providers that are better than others

in delivering service to operators and

service companies

Quality and reliability of service are

key aspects for sand suppliers to

differentiate themselves from

competition in the region

15

Forecast

$53

$32

$23

$44

$34

$25

$22

$20$20

$0

$20

$40

$60

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Northern White Sand Minegate Price Forecast*

USD per ton

* Northern White Sand minegate price is estimated by calculating an average on mesh grades weighted on demand market shares


Rystad Energy expects minegate northern white sand prices to be range bound between

$20 and $25 per ton in the medium-term

Northern White Sand Price Forecast

The median cost of production for

northern white sand mines is

estimated to be between $20 and

$25 per ton

We expect ~30 million tons of frac

sand supply to come offline in the

near to medium-term

The floor on northern white sand

minegate prices would be determined

by operating costs of mines that

eventually survive in the current

environment

There haven’t been a lot of

announcements of northern white

sand mine closures in 2019YTD

since the wave of announcements

late last year

Rystad Energy expects more

announcements to come once

currently active mines have to reopen

after the winter in 2Q 2019

16

“I have heard reports of spot pricing for

in-basin sand in the Permian around

$23/ton”

- Operations Head, Logistics Company


Spot prices for northern white sand and in-basin sand are estimated to be between $20/ton

and $25/ton

Market Perspectives: Frac Sand Pricing

Contracted pricing for in-basin sand

in the Permian has dropped from low

to mid 40s to the mid 30s

Adoption rates for in-basin sand in

the Permian is estimated to be over

70%

Larger E&Ps still use NWS but we

expect them to switch over within the

next few years

Rystad Energy estimates spot pricing

for in-basin sand in the Permian to be

between $20/ton and 25/ton

Northern white sand prices have

stabilized in the low 20s

Comments Quotes

The Permian has seen a significant switch from northern white sand to in-basin sand; adoption has happened at a faster rate

than our previous expectations

“Northern white sand prices have

collapsed and are in the low 20s. I

have even heard reports of mid to high

teens.”

- VP, Frac Sand Provider

“We were ready to match prices

offered by local sand providers but the

customer went away saying it wasn’t a

matter of price anymore”

- C-Level Exec., NWS Provider

“Contracted pricing for in-basin sand in

the Permian is currently in the mid

30s”

- Supply Chain Head, Operator

17

Shale Intel – Products Overview


• In-depth analysis of stimulation chemicals market and trends, including a market overview report and deep-dive reports on 8 key chemical categories (e.g. crosslinker, HCl, guar, etc.)

Frac Chemicals Market

• Analysis / forecast of US frac sand supply, demand, and pricing, by play, by type (northern white sand, brown sand and in-basin sand); including regional pricing indices, logistics analysis and supplier cost curve buildup

Proppant Market

• Detailed analysis and forecast of global fracturing services market, including regional breakdown of supply, demand, utilization, pricing, as well as market, technology trends and analysis of stacked vs. active horsepower

Frac Services

• Analysis of US oilfield water management market, including regional supply, demand, pricing, trends for sourcing, logistics, drill/frac, flowback, treatment, disposal service including competitive landscape

Water Management Services

• Play-by-play details of US rig counts, permits count, wells spud, wells frac’ed, frac stages, and stimulated length with a rolling five year forecast

Oilfield Activity Metrics

• Strategic Consulting and Advisory CapabilitiesConsulting

18

20.9

24.526.1

27.8

17.8

9.8

13.7

17.1

20.1

24.4

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fra

c S

tag

es (

‘000)

Wells F

rac’e

d &

Sp

ud

(‘0

00)

HZ Wells Frac'ed VT/DR Wells Frac'ed

Total Wells Spud Total Frac Stages

Forecast

$95 $94$98

$94

$49

$43$50

$55 $54

$65

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Oilfield Activity Metrics provides an industry snapshot of upstream activity by basin, oil price

forecasts, breakevens by basin, drilling statistics, & 5 year activity forecasts

Oilfield Activity Metrics Summary


WTI oil price forecast ($/bbl.)

$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100

Bakken

Eagle Ford

Mid-Con - SCOOP

Mid-Con - STACK

Permian - Delaware

Permian - Midland

2014 2015 2016 2017

Breakeven prices, by play ($/bbl.)

US Land: Wells frac’ed, Wells Spud & Frac Stages

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Appalachia - Marcellus Appalachia - Utica BakkenDJ Basin Eagle Ford Permian - Delaware

Average Horizontal Multi-Well Pad Size

Oil and natural gas price forecast

US oil production forecast

US rigs, wells spud, wells frac’ed, frac stages & stimulated length (5 year forecast), by play

Breakeven prices, by play

Drilling statistics, by play – multi-well pad penetration & drilling efficiencies data

Key Features

Ideal For

What will shale activity be?

What are the prospects for continued

increasing/decreasing trends?

What geographical areas will activity

be in?

What are the breakevens for each

basin?

Key Questions

• E&Ps

• Oilfield service companies

• Financial market

Forecast

19

Forecast

10.6

14.2

12.4

10.5

16.5

18.219.2

20.421.1

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Permian Appalachia Eagle Ford Bakken DJ Basin Mid-Con Rest of US

Frac Services provides a breakdown of fracturing horsepower demand and supply by basin,

service company, and contract status; combined with industry insights

Frac Services Summary


Horsepower Supply V Demand (MM HHP) Hydraulic Fracturing Horsepower Demand (MM HHP)

US Land: HZ Completions, by Basin Customer Insights on Various Topics

Granular breakdown of total hydraulic

fracturing equipment supply and

demand

Analysis of horsepower utilization

trends in each basin

Summary of attrition of old equipment

and new-build activity

Key Features

Ideal For

How much hydraulic fracturing

equipment is there, who owns it and

where is it?

Where and when is there likely to a

shortfall or oversupply of equipment?

Is equipment a bottleneck to growth,

or is surplus likely to hurt service

company financial

Key Questions

• E&Ps

• Pressure Pumpers

• Equipment Manufacturers

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Permian Appalachia Eagle Ford Bakken

DJ Basin Mid-Con Rest of US Total Supply

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

800

1,600

2,400

3,200

4,000

4,800

5,600

6,400

7,200

8,000

20

14

Q2

20

14

Q3

20

14

Q4

20

15

Q1

20

15

Q2

20

15

Q3

20

15

Q4

20

16

Q1

20

16

Q2

20

16

Q3

20

16

Q4

20

17

Q1

20

17

Q2

20

17

Q3

20

17

Q4

20

18

Q1

20

18

Q2

20

18

Q3

20

18

Q4

Other

Niobrara Region

Bakken Region

Anadarko Region

Appalachian

Eagle Ford

Permian

20

Forecast

49.862.6

72.6

112.3 104.280.4

151.7

198.5

238.1

292.7

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Permian Appalachia Eagle Ford Bakken

DJ Basin Mid-Con Rest of US

Proppant Market covers demand, supply, pricing and logistics for US frac sand market; also

includes qualitative insights from our extensive network of contacts

Proppant Market Summary


US Land: Frac Sand Demand (B lbs.) Frac Sand – Supply Stack (MM tons)

Eagle Ford: Total Delivered Cost ($/ton) Current Bottlenecks for Proppant

US frac sand demand, supply, pricing

and logistics (5 year forecast)

Supplier cost curve analysis

In-basin sand market coverage

Frac sand intensity trends, by region

Price forecasts for Northern White

Sand, Brown Sand and In-Basin

Sand

Key Features

Ideal For

What is the demand outlook for frac sand?

How will new in-basin mines change the frac sand landscape?

What are sand prices doing?

Who are the top frac sand providers?

What is the demand breakdown by mesh size?

Key Questions

• E&Ps

• Oilfield service companies, proppant providers

• Financial clients

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Current Supply Stack New Supply Future Supply Stack

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140

To

tal D

eli

ve

red

Co

st

($/t

on

)

Supply (MM tons)

Median: $95/tonFrac Sand

Supply Constraints

• Finer grades of sand (40/70 and 100 mesh) are the most popular sand grades as operators have shifted to slickwater chemistry with higher proppant loadings

• All in-basin mines produce finer grades of sand (primarily 100 mesh) thus helping to mitigate this issue; Permian-Midland uses 40/70 sand, which still has to be supplied from other sources

• In-basin mines in the short-term will face production bottlenecks thus causing a strain on market

Trucking

• The trucking market is the biggest bottleneck that the proppant industry is currently facing due to driver shortages and lack of road infrastructure to meet increased truck loads in the Permian

• Increased well site storage, containerized box solutions and other innovations in the space could partially mitigate these issues

InsightBottleneck

Rail

• Frac sand demand is in uncharted waters with demand expected to exceed peak 2017 levels by 44% in 2018

• The rail car market will be stretched thin as the frac sand market grows; rail congestion and lack of rail cars will be choke points

• In-basin sands are not transported via rail and hence help to mitigate this issue partially

TransloadingSites

• As proppant loading increases and more wells are fracked during the upturn, transloadingsites with unit train capabilities are needed to ensure demand is met

• Over time, Rystad Energy expects this bottleneck to ease as companies invest money and build transloading facilities

21


Table of Contents: Shale Intel – Frac Services (1/2)

Topic Page

Executive Summary 10

Oil & Natural Gas Price Forecast 11

Well Completions Forecast 12

Permian HHP-Hrs Distribution 13

HHP-Hr Average per Well 14

Permian: Supply and Demand 15

Supply by Status 16

Pumping Horsepower Demand 18

Weekly Active Fleet Count 19

Bakken HHP Distribution 20

Horsepower Hours 21

HHP-Hr Average per Well 22

HHP-Hrs per Well Distribution 23

Pumping Supply Forecast 25

Supply by Service Company 26

Supply by Status 27

Horsepower Utilization 29

Topic Page

Marketed utilization 30

Market Views – Pricing 31

Market Views – Equipment Manufacturing 32

Market Views – Service Availability/Quality 33

Pricing 34

Permian: Supply and Demand 36

Permian: Supply by Company 37

Permian HHP-Hrs Distribution 38

Permian-Midland: Pumping Intensity 39

Permian-Delaware: Pumping Intensity, by Service Company 40

Permian-Delaware: Pumping Intensity, by Operator 41

Permian-Midland: Pumping Intensity, by Service Company 42

Permian-Midland: Pumping Intensity, by Operator 43

Permian HHP-Hrs Heat Map 2017 v 2018 44

Eagle Ford: Supply and Demand 46

Eagle Ford: Supply by Company 47

Eagle Ford: Pumping Intensity, by Service Company 48

22


Table of Contents: Shale Intel – Frac Services (2/2)

Topic Page

Eagle Ford: Pumping Intensity, by Operator 49

Eagle Ford: Pumping Intensity Distribution 50

Eagle Ford HHP-Hrs Heat Map 2017 v 2018 51

Appalachia: Supply and Demand 53

Appalachia: Supply By Company 54

Appalachia-Marcellus: Pumping Intensity, by Service Company 55

Appalachia- Marcellus: Pumping Intensity, by Operator 56

Appalachia- Utica: Pumping Intensity, by Service Company 57

Appalachia- Utica: Pumping Intensity, by Operator 58

Appalachia HHP-Hrs Heat Map 2017 v 2018 59

Bakken: Supply and Demand 61

Bakken: Supply by Company 62

Bakken: Pumping Intensity, by Service Company 63

Bakken: Pumping Intensity, by Operator 64

Bakken HHP-Hrs Heat Map 2017 v 2018 65

DJ Basin: Supply and Demand 67

Topic Page

DJ Basin: Supply by Company 68

DJ Basin: Pumping Intensity, by Service Company 69

DJ Basin: Pumping Intensity, by Operator 70

DJ Basin HHP-Hrs Heat Map 2017 v 2018 71

Mid-Continent: Supply and Demand 73

Mid-Continent: Supply by Company 74

Mid-Con-SCOOP: Pumping Intensity, by Service Company 75

Mid-Con-SCOOP: Pumping Intensity, by Operator 76

Mid-Con-STACK: Pumping Intensity, by Service Company 77

Mid-Con-STACK: Pumping Intensity, by Operator 78

Mid-Con HHP-Hrs Heat Map 2017 v 2018 79

Haynesville: Supply and Demand 81

Haynesville: Supply by Company 82

Haynesville: Pumping Intensity, by Service Company 83

Haynesville: Pumping Intensity, by Operator 84

Haynesville HHP-Hrs Heat Map 2017 v 2018 85

23

24


Table of Contents: Shale Intel – Proppant Market (1/2)

Topic Page


Executive Summary 10

Frac Sand Demand 12

Frac Sand Mass per HZ Well Trends 13

Frac Sand Intensity Trends 14

Survey Responses – Frac Sand Intensity 15

Frac Sand Market Share, by Mesh Size 16

US Land: Mesh Size Market Share Trends, by Year 17

Map: Frac Sand Demand (2019 vs 2018) 18

Survey Responses – Coarser Grades of Frac Sand 19

Permian: Frac Sand Trucks on Road per Day 20

Market Perspectives: Last Mile Problem in Permian 21

Frac Sand Supply (Nameplate) 23

Breakdown of Frac Sand Supply, By Type 24

Market Perspectives: Frac Sand Supply 25

Permian In-Basin Frac Sand Supply 26

Mid-Con – Frac Sand Supply (Nameplate) 27

Quality of Sand Reserves, by Region 28

In-Basin Sand (Permian) Minegate Price Forecast 29

Northern White Sand Price Forecast 30

Survey Responses – In-Basin Sand (Eagle Ford) 31

Survey Responses – In-Basin Sand (Permian) 32

Canada Proppant Demand 34

Topic Page

Canada: Proppant Intensity & Lateral Length Trends 35

Canada: Operator Trends 36

Canada: Service Provider Trends 37

Montney: Wholesale Frac Sand Prices 38

Canada Map: Frac Sand Consumption per HZ Well 39

Permian-Delaware: Frac Sand Demand Trends 41

Permian-Delaware: Frac Sand Intensity & Mesh Size Trends 42

Permian-Delaware: Delivered Frac Sand Prices 43

Permian-Delaware Map: Proppant Consumption, by County 44

Permian-Midland: Frac Sand Demand Trends 46

Permian-Midland: Frac Sand Intensity & Mesh Size Trends 47

Permian-Midland: Delivered Frac Sand Prices 48

Permian-Midland Map: Proppant Consumption, by County (2018) 49

Eagle Ford: Frac Sand Demand Trends 51

Eagle Ford: Frac Sand Intensity & Mesh Size Trends 52

Eagle Ford: Wholesale Frac Sand Prices 53

Eagle Ford Map: Proppant Consumption, by County (2018) 54

Appalachia: Frac Sand Demand Trends 56

Appalachia: Frac Sand Intensity & Mesh Size Trends 57

Appalachia: Wholesale Frac Sand Prices 58

Appalachia Map: Proppant Consumption, by County (2018) 59

Bakken: Frac Sand Demand Trends 61

Bakken: Frac Sand Intensity & Mesh Size Trends 62

25


Table of Contents: Shale Intel – Proppant Market (2/2)

Topic Page

Bakken: Wholesale Frac Sand Prices 63

Bakken Map: Proppant Consumption, by County (2018) 64

DJ Basin: Frac Sand Demand Trends 66

DJ Basin: Frac Sand Intensity & Mesh Size Trends 67

DJ Basin: Wholesale Frac Sand Prices 68

DJ Basin Map: Proppant Consumption, by County (2018) 69

Mid-Con: Frac Sand Demand Trends 71

Mid-Con: Frac Sand Intensity & Mesh Size Trends 72

Mid-Con: Wholesale Frac Sand Prices 73

Mid-Con – Frac Sand Supply (Nameplate) 74

Map: In-Basin Sand Mines (Mid-Con) 75

Topic Page

Mid-Con Map: Proppant Consumption, by County (2018) 76

Haynesville: Frac Sand Demand Trends 78

Haynesville: Frac Sand Intensity & Mesh Size Trends 79

Haynesville: Wholesale Frac Sand Prices 80

Haynesville Map: Proppant Consumption, by County (2018) 81

Powder River: Frac Sand Demand Trends 83

Powder River: Frac Sand Intensity & Mesh Size Trends 84

Powder River: Wholesale Frac Sand Prices 85

Powder River: Proppant Intensity & Lateral Length Trends 86

Powder River Map: Proppant Consumption, by County (2018) 87

Appendix 89 - 96


Table of Contents: Shale Intel – Water Management Services

Topic Page


Executive Summary 8

Frac Water Demand 10

Produced Water 11

Flowback Water 12

Treated Water 13

Reinjected Water 14

Disposed Water 15

WOR Cuts 16

Permian-Delaware: Frac Water Demand and Produced Water 18

Permian-Delaware: Water Management Market 19

Permian-Delaware: Frac Water & Proppant Mass Trends 20

Permian-Delaware: Frac Water Market Share Analysis 21

Permian-Midland: Frac Water Demand and Produced Water 23

Permian-Midland: Water Management Market 24

Permian-Midland: Frac Water & Proppant Mass Trends 25

Permian-Midland: Frac Water Market Share Analysis 26

Eagle Ford: Frac Water Demand and Produced Water 28

Eagle Ford: Water Management Market 29

Eagle Ford: Frac Water & Proppant Mass Trends 30

Eagle Ford: Frac Water Market Share Analysis 31

Appalachia: Frac Water Demand and Produced Water 33

Appalachia: Water Management Market 34

Topic Page

Appalachia: Frac Water & Proppant Mass Trends 35

Appalachia: Frac Water Market Share Analysis 36

Bakken: Frac Water Demand and Produced Water 38

Bakken: Water Management Market 39

Bakken: Frac Water & Proppant Mass Trends 40

Bakken: Frac Water Market Share Analysis 41

DJ: Frac Water Demand and Produced Water 43

DJ: Water Management Market 44

DJ: Frac Water & Proppant Mass Trends 45

DJ: Frac Water Market Share Analysis 46

Mid-Con: Frac Water Demand and Produced Water 48

Mid-Con: Water Management Market 49

Mid-Con: Frac Water & Proppant Mass Trends 50

Mid-Con: Frac Water Market Share Analysis 51

Haynesville: Frac Water Demand and Produced Water 53

Haynesville: Water Management Market 54

Haynesville: Frac Water & Proppant Mass Trends 55

Haynesville: Frac Water Market Share Analysis 56

Deep Dive: Permian Perspectives – Sourcing 58

Deep Dive: Permian Perspectives – Treatment 59

Deep Dive: Permian Perspectives – Reuse 60

Deep Dive: Permian Perspectives - Disposal 61

Appendix 65

26

For more product information or to get a [email protected]

Ryan CarbreySVP - Shale [email protected]

Rystad Energy [email protected]

This document is the property of Rystad Energy. The document must not be reproduced or distributed in any forms, in parts or full without

permission from Rystad Energy. The information contained in this document is based on Rystad Energy’s database products (UCube,

NASWellCube), public information from company presentations, industry reports, and other, general research by Rystad Energy. The

document is not intended to be used on a stand-alone basis but in combination with other material or in discussions. The document is

subject to revisions. Rystad Energy is not responsible for actions taken based on information in this document.

enercom dallas 2019 · 2019-02-28 · source: rystad energy research and analysis, rystad energy...

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