consumer confidence - nielsen · 2019-05-29 · c 2015 t n company 5 60 countries – 3-month trend...

C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C ECONCERNS AND SPENDING INTENTIONS AROUND THE WORLD

QUARTER 1, 2015

2015 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES | 1ST EDITION

2 QUARTER 1 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT2

• Globalconsumerconfidenceincreasedoneindexpointto97,asregionalscoresimprovedorremainedstableineveryregionexceptLatinAmerica.

• Asia-Pacificshowedarobuststarttotheyear,withconfidencescoresinnineof14countriesatorabovethebaselinereadingof100.

• ManyofEurope’skeymarketspostedthehighestconfidencescoresinseveralyears.

• NorthAmericanrecessionarysentimentcontinuedtorecede,butspendingintentionsremainedrestrained.

• ConfidenceinLatinAmericadeclinedtothelowestlevelsince2011.

• Overasix-yearperiod,concernsabouttheeconomyandjobsecurityshowedaninverserelationshipwithconcernsabouthealthandwork/lifebalance.

THE WORLD’S LEADING DEVELOPED ECONOMIES SHOWED IMPROVED CONSUMER CONFIDENCE; CHINA, RUSSIA AND BRAZIL DECLINED

Globalconsumerconfidencestarted2015withanindexscoreof97—

anincreaseofonepointfromfourth-quarter2014andfromayear-ago.

Comparedtotheendoflastyearwhenallregionalconfidencescores

declined,itwasamoreupbeatstarttotheyear,asconfidenceincreased

slightlyorremainedstableineveryregionexceptLatinAmerica.

3Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company 3

ABOUT THE GLOBAL SURVEY METHODOLOGY

Thefindingsinthissurveyare

basedonrespondentswith

onlineaccessin60countries

(unlessotherwisenoted).While

anonlinesurveymethodology

allowsfortremendousscale

andglobalreach,itprovidesa

perspectiveonlyonthehabits

ofexistingInternetusers,not

totalpopulations.Indeveloping

marketswhereonlinepenetration

isstillgrowing,audiencesmay

beyoungerandmoreaffluent

thanthegeneralpopulationof

thatcountry.Inaddition,survey

responsesarebasedonclaimed

behaviorratherthanactual

metereddata.

ConsumerconfidenceincreasedonepointinAsia-Pacific,postingthe

highestquarterlyregionalindexscoreof107,whileNorthAmericaheld

steadyat106.ConfidenceintheMiddleEast/Africa(96)andEurope(77)

edgeduponepointinthefirstquarter,butdecreasedtwopointsinLatin

America(86)—theregion’slowestscoresince2011.

Amongtheworld’slargesteconomies,consumerconfidenceincreasedmost

inJapan,risingninepointsto82inthefirstquarter,whichwasthecountry’s

highestscoresince2005—thestartofNielsen’sconsumerconfidenceindex

measurement.Germanyalsoreachedamilestone:Sentimentincreased

twopointstoreachthebaselinescoreof100.Confidencealsoincreased

onepointintheU.S.(107),threepointsintheU.K.(97)andthreepoints

inFrance(60).Conversely,confidenceinChinadecreasedonepointto106

fromfourth-quarter2014.

“Whileconfidenceacrossglobalregionsremainedrelativelystableinthe

firstquarter,thereisconsiderablevariationacrossdifferentmarkets,”said

LouiseKeely,seniorvicepresident,Nielsen,andpresident,TheDemand

Institute.“Inthefirstquarterofthisyear,thekeyemergingmarketsofBrazil

andRussiasawlargedeclinesinconfidenceforthesecondconsecutive

quarter,withthedropinoilpricesandthepoliticalinstabilityinBrazil.

Chinadroppedanotherindexpointatthestartofthisyear,whichcomes

afterafour-pointdeclineinthepreviousquarter,reflectingtherecent

slowdowninGDPthere.”

“InEurope,therearesignsofimprovedconsumerconfidenceinmany

countries,whichreflectssignsofgrowthinthesemarkets,”continuedKeely.

“LoweroilpriceshavehelpedEuropeanconsumerswhoarenotinoil-

producingcountries,andlabormarketsareimproving.Ontheotherhand,

thefallingEuroagainstthedollarisgoodforexportindustriesbutnotfor

consumers,whowillpaymoreforimports.”

Inthelatestonlinesurvey,conductedFeb.23-March13,2015,consumer

confidenceincreasedin37of60marketsmeasuredbyNielsen(61%),

comparedwithonly17of60markets(28%)inthepreviousquarter.India’s

scoreof130,thehighestscoreamong60markets,wasonepointhigher

thaninfourth-quarter2014,followedbyIndonesia(123),thePhilippines

(115)andtheUnitedArabEmirates(115).Italy(57)showedthebiggest

quarterlyimprovement,asconfidencerose12pointsfromfourth-quarter

2014.TheUkrainereportedthelowestscoreof41,aquarterlydeclineof11

points—thebiggestdropinthesurvey.

TheNielsenconsumerconfidenceindexmeasuresperceptionsoflocaljob

prospects,personalfinancesandimmediatespendingintentions.Consumer

confidencelevelsaboveandbelowabaselineof100indicatedegrees

ofoptimismandpessimism,respectively.TheNielsenGlobalSurveyof

ConsumerConfidenceandSpendingIntentions,establishedin2005,

measuresconsumerconfidence,majorconcernsandspendingintentions

amongmorethan30,000respondentswithInternetaccessin60countries.

4 QUARTER 1 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ1-2015 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

*SurveyisbasedonrespondentswithInternetaccess.Chinasurveyresultsreflectamixedmethodology.Indexlevelsaboveandbelow100indicatedegreesofoptimism/pessimism.

+3-5

+1+3

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87 SO

UTH

AFRICA 87 CH

ILE 88

BRAZIL 88

ISRAEL 88 TAIW

AN 89 NETHERLANDS

ITALY 57

90 EGYPT

HUNGARY 57

92 IRELAND

SLOVENIA 57

CROATIA 58

94 MALAYSIA

PORTUGAL 59

94 COLOMBIA

FRANCE

60

94 SWITZERLAND

FINLAND 63

95 AUSTRALIA

GREECE 65

96 CANADA

VENEZUELA 65

97 UNITED KINGDOM

SPAIN 67

99 PERU

BULGARIA 72 100 GERMANYRUSSIA 72 100 SINGAPORE

POLAND 73

102 NEW ZEALAND

SLOVAKIA 73

102 PAKISTAN

ROMANIA 74

106 DENMARK

ARGENTINA 75

106 HONG KONG

BELGIUM 79

106 CHINA

LATVIA 80

107 UNITED STATES

JAPAN

82

107 SAUDI A

RABIA

AUSTRIA

82

112 V

IETNAM

ESTONIA

83

114

THAILA

ND

CZECH R

EPUBL

IC

83

115

UNITED A

RAB EM

IRATE

S

LITH

UAN

IA

84

115

PHIL

IPPI

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NO

RWAY

8

5

123

IN

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RKEY

86

SWED

EN

87

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SERBIA 53

+1

130

IN

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Y

LESS

CONFIDENT

MORE CONFIDENT

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SOUTH

KOREA

46

-11

UKRAINE

41

NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA EUROPE AFRICA, MIDDLE EAST ASIA-PACIFIC

97 ( +1 change from Q4-2014 )

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY – 60 Countries – 3-Month TrendQ1-2015 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index

Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism.

INDEXES ABOVE 100 INDICATE OPTIMISM

GLOBALAVERAGE

5Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company

60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ1-2015 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

5

MONEY REMAINED FIRMLY IN THE POCKETS FOR MOSTGlobaldiscretionaryspendingintentionsdeclinedorremainedsteadyinthefirstquarteracrossalllifestylecategoriesmeasured.Aboutthree-in-10globalrespondents(32%)plannedtospendonholidays/vacations,newclothes(31%)andout-of-homeentertainment(28%),quarterlydeclinesoftwo,threeandtwopercentagepoints,respectively.Spendingintentionsforpayingcreditcardsanddebts(25%)andnewtechnologyproducts(24%)heldsteadyfromthepreviousquarter.Millennialrespondents—especiallythoseinthe25-29agerange—exceededtheglobalaveragesbyasmuch10percentagepointsforthesediscretionaryspendingactivities.Theseconsumerswhoarejuststartingtheircareersoftendonotyethavefamiliestosupportandhavemorefreedomtospend.

Globalsavingintentions,ontheotherhand,showedaslightincreaseofonepercentagepointeachforinvestinginstocksandmutualfunds(22%)andforretirementsavings(11%)fromfourth-quarter2014.Abouthalfofglobalrespondentsplannedtobanktheirsparecash(48%),nochangefromthepreviousquarter,while14%saidtheyhadnosparecash,upfrom13%thepreviousquarter.Aboutone-quarterofthoseaged55+saidtheyhadnosparecash(22%)—thehighestpercentageofanyagegroup.Apromisingsignforthefuture,however,isthatmorethanhalfofrespondentsinthe21-34agerange(53%)saidtheyweresavingtheirmoney.

“Withfallingoilprices,consumersintheU.S.andEurope,andthoseinoil-importingcountries,haveachoiceofwhethertospendorsavetheextracashonhand,”saidKeely.“Datafromearly2015suggeststhatconsumersarenotspendingitall.That,alongsideglobalsavingsandinvestingintentions,suggeststhatconsumersaroundtheworld,whilegenerallyfeelingrelativeupbeatcomparedtoafewyearsago,arestillveryinterestedinpreparingfortheireconomicfutures.”

Areviewofthetopspendingintentionsbyregionshowedsimilarpriorities,asputtingcashintosavingaccountswasthetopgoalforrespondentsineveryregionexceptLatinAmerica.InLatinAmerica,payingoffdebtsclaimedthehighestpercentageofrespondents.Spendingtimetorelaxandhavefunwasalsoimportantaroundtheworld,asplanstogoonholidays/vacations,buynewclothesandspendonout-of-homeentertainmentexpenseswereamongthehighest-ratedactivities.

NorthAmericansreportedthehighestpercentagehavingnosparecash(22%),followedbyrespondentsintheMiddleEast/Africa(21%),Europe(20%),LatinAmerica(15%)andAsia-Pacific(8%).


Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12015

TOP 3 WAYS TO SPEND SPARE CASH BY REGION

LATIN AMERICA

SAVING IS A TOP PRIORITY IN EVERY REGION

NEW CLOTHES

OUT-OF-HOME ENTERTAINMENT

HOLIDAYS/VACATIONS

SAVINGS

SAVINGS

SAVINGS

PAYING DEBTS

HOLIDAYS/VACATIONS

NEW CLOTHES

PAYING DEBTS

ASIA-PACIFIC

EUROPE

MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

NO SPARE CASH

61%

38%

34%

39%

26%

20%

40%

34%

21%

37%

8%

20%

21%

22%

15%

NEW CLOTHES 31%

HOLIDAYS/VACATIONS 30%

SAVINGS 35%

SAVINGS 33%

OUT-OF-HOME ENTERTAINMENT 32%


LESS CONCERN ABOUT JOB SECURITY CONNECTS WITH MORE WORRY OVER HEALTH AND WORK/LIFE BALANCEConcernsabouttheeconomyandjobsecurityhaveadirectrelationship—asonegoesupordown,theothertypicallyfollows,andinrecessionarytimes,bothusuallyrise.Conversely,thereisoftenaninverserelationshipbetweenconcernsabouttheeconomy/jobsecurityandconcernsaboutrisingprices.Recessionsareperiodswheninflationisgenerallylower,sofoodandutilitypriceswouldusuallynotriseasmuch.Areviewofconcernsamongglobalrespondentsoverasix-yearperiodillustratesthistrend.Whensentimentdroppedforworriesabouttheeconomyandjobsecurity,itusuallyroseforconcernsabouthigherfoodandutilityprices(seechartonthenextpage).

Interestingly,sentimentabouthealthandwork/lifebalanceisalsoconnected.Itturnsoutthatadecreasedpercentageofrespondentsconcernedabouttheeconomyandjobsoftencorrelatedwithanincreasedpercentageforthoseconcernedabouthealthandwork/lifebalance.Notonlywerehealthandwork/lifebalancetrendlinescloselyaligned,butbothoftenshowedanelevationwhenconcernsabouttheeconomyandjobsecuritydecreased.

“Whiletheeconomyislessofaconsumerconcernnowthanitwasduringthefinancialcrisis,itisstillconsumers’topconcerninmostcountries,alongsidejobsecurity,”saidKeely.“Insomecountries,concernsaboutpoliticalstabilityalsospikeduringperiodsofcrisis,suchasinBrazilinthelastquarter.Butpersonalconcernsabouthealthandwork/lifebalancearenotfarbehind,andinChina,theseconcernsareactuallymoreprevalentthaneconomicconcerns.Consumer-facingbusinesseshaveanopportunitytohelpconsumersaddressthesemorepersonalconcerns.”

Inthefirstquarter,thepercentageofglobalrespondentsconcernedabouttheeconomyedgedupslightlyto26%from25%infourth-quarter2014,whilethepercentageconcernedaboutjobsecurityheldsteadyat22%.Followingtheinversetrenddiscussedabove,worriesaboutrisingpricesforfoodandutilitybillsdippedslightly,andconcernsaboutwork/lifebalanceandhealthalsoedgeddown.


CONCERNS ABOUT HEALTH & WORK/LIFE BALANCE ARE CONNECTED AND OFTEN RISE WHEN WORRIES ABOUT THE ECONOMY/JOB SECURITY RECEDE

0%

5%

10%

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45%

THE ECONOMY

JOB SECURITY

WORK/LIFE BALANCE HEALTH

INCREASING FOOD PRICES INCREASING UTILITY BILLS (ELECTRICITY,GAS, HEATING, ETC)

35%

25%

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THE PERIODAFTER THE GREAT

RECESSION, ECONOMY AND JOB SECURITY CONCERNS

DROP BUT REMAIN VOLATILEECONOMY AND JOB

CONCERNS STABILIZE

WORK/LIFE BALANCEAND HEALTH

CONCERNS RISE

THE GREATRECESSION YEARS


GLOBAL AVERAGE BIGGEST + SECOND BIGGEST CONCERNS OVER 6 YEARS


OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN ASIA-PACIFIC WAS OPTIMISTIC ConsumerconfidenceinAsia-Pacificincreasedinnineof14marketsinthe

firstquarter,comparedtoonlythreethatroseinthefourth-quarter2014.

Ninemarketsalsoremainedatorabovethe100-baselinelevelofoptimism.

Indiahadthehighestindexscoreintheregionof130,aone-pointincrease

fromthepreviousquarterandalevelthathasnotbeenreachedsince2011.

ConfidenceinIndiahasbeenontheriseforsixconsecutivequarters.

“TheurbanIndianconsumerstartedtheyearwithpositivesentimentin

anticipationofimprovementthroughreformsandstimulusannounced

bythenewgovernment,”saidPiyushMathur,president,NielsenIndia

Region.“Theseinitialsignsofoptimismreflectanticipationofeconomic

recoverythatareyettomanifestwhenyoulookatfast-movingconsumer

goodsandautosectorsinparticularoverthelastfewquarters.Moreover,

infrastructure,engineeringandotherindustrialsectorsareyettogather

pace.Thefallininflationisexpectedtohaveanimpactondisposable

incomeovertime,butitwilltaketimeforthesectorstoberestoredto

perceptibleandsustainablegrowth.”

BigindexincreaseswerereportedinTaiwan,whereconfidencerose11points

to88—thehighestscoresince2011,andinJapan,whichroseninepointsto

88—thehighestscoreforthecountryrecordedbyNielsensince2005.

“Taiwanshowedastrongreboundatthestartofthisyearafteradeclinein

fourth-quarter2014,”saidAndyHuang,managingdirector,NielsenTaiwan.

“Theriseinconfidencesentimentwasdrivenbyastrongimprovementin

theoutlookforjobs,whichincreased16percentagepointsfromfourth-

quarter2014.Perceptionsaboutpersonalfinancesandawillingness

tospendalsoimprovednineand10percentagepoints,respectively.

PreliminaryGDPforecasts,afallingunemploymentrateandastabilizing

consumerpriceindexwereotherpositiveindicatorsatthestartof

2015,whichlikelycontributedtoincreasedoptimismamongTaiwanese

consumers.”

“Japaneseconsumersfeltanimprovementintheiremploymentsituationin

thefirstquarter,andmoreconsumersbelieveditwasagoodtimetospend,”

saidToshihiroFukutoku,managingdirector,NielsenJapan.“Thesefindings

alignwiththetrendreportedinthelatestconsumerconfidencesurveyby

theGovernmentofJapan,asperceptionindicesfor‘livingcircumstances’,

GLOBAL AVERAGE BIGGEST + SECOND BIGGEST CONCERNS OVER 6 YEARS


INDIA’S CONSUMER CONFIDENCE STAYS STRONG FOR 10 YEARS

10-YEAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TREND IN SELECT ASIA-PACIFIC MARKETS

‘timingtopurchasedurablegoods’,‘employmentenvironment’,‘income

increase’and‘assetvalue’allimproved.Thankstotherecentdecline

inoilprices,theweakerYenandaboostintourism,retailersarerather

optimisticintheirexpectationsforcontinuousgrowthinconsumer

spending.”

VietnamandMalaysiaalsoreportedstrongconfidenceboostsofsixand

fivepoints,respectively,inthefirstquarter.Vietnam’srisetoascore

of112isthethirdconsecutiveincreaseandthecountry’shighestscore

since2010.Conversely,China’sindexfellonepointto106inthefirst

quarter,whichcomesafterafour-pointdeclineinfourth-quarter2014.

“Despitetheslightdeclineinoverallconsumerconfidence,Chinese

consumers’willingnesstospendkeptgrowing,especiallyamong

consumersfromlower-tiercities,”saidOliverRust,managingdirector

ofNielsenChina.“WiththeincreasingdisposableincomeofChinese

consumers,thewell-controlledCPI,andtherapiddevelopmentof

e-commerceworldwide,webelievethehugepotentialofChinese

consumerswillbefurtherunleashed.Meanwhile,oursurveyalsoshows

thatconfidenceinEastChinaisleadingthemomentuminthecountry

andisexpectedtoshowstrongvitalityinthefuture.”

160

140

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INDIA

CHINA

AUSTRALIA JAPAN

GLOBAL AVG

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INDIA AND CHINA'S SCORES REMAIN AT HIGH LEVELS AND ABOVE THE

GLOBAL AVERAGE



10-YEAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TREND IN SELECT ASIA-PACIFIC MARKETS

RECOVERY HOPES WERE BUOYED IN EUROPE Europeremainedtheleastoptimisticregiongloballywithanoverallindex

of77,buttherewereseveralsignsthatgreenshootsweresproutinginthe

recession-miredmindsetsintheregion.Jobconfidencerosein15of32

markets,whilerespondents’personalfinancialoutlooksincreasedin18

fromfourth-quarter2014.Confidenceforimmediatespendingintentions,

whilestillcomparativelylow,increasedin19markets.

ItalyandGreece,twooftheregion’sdebt-riddenandrecession-battered

countries,bothshowedconfidenceincreasesof12-pointsinthefirst

quarter.Italy’sscoreof57wasthehighestforthecountrysince2011,and

Greecepostedaconfidencereadingof65—itshighestlevelsince2009.

“Italy’slatestconfidenceincreaseisthemostsignificantquarterlyleap

Nielsenhasrecorded,anditappearsthatrecoveryhasstarted,”said

GiovanniFantasia,managingdirector,NielsenItaly.“Inparticular,

employmentexpectationsimprovedsevenpercentagepoints,andthere

wasasix-percentagepointincreaseinpersonalfinancialoutlook.These

changeshavehadapositiveeffectonconsumptionpropensity.Inthe

firstthreemonthsoftheyear,Nielsenretailsalesdatashowsgrowth

of2%,anothersignofrenewedoptimismaboutthefuture.Whilethese

developmentsarepositive,furtherimprovementwillbeneededtoconfirm

theeconomiccrisisisfinallybehindus.”

“InGreece,anewgovernmentwaselectedinthegeneralelectionsthat

tookplaceinJanuary,andassuch,thiskindofchangeusuallyboosts

optimismandbringsnewhopeforthefuture,”saidVickyGrigoriadou,

marketleader,NielsenGreece.“Theriseinoptimisminthefirstquarter

ishigherthaninpastquarters,likelyduetoanexpectationthatthenew

governmentwillsuccessfullynegotiatewithEUandIMFauthoritieson

theGreekdebtissueandothereconomicprospects.Retailpurchasing

patternsremainedrestrained,however,asamorestableenvironmentis

necessaryinordertoincreasehouseholdspendingactivities.”

Intheregion,onlyGermany(100)andDenmark(106)reachedthe

optimismbaselinelevel.Theywerealsotheonlytwocountriesinthe

regionwherehalf(50%)ofrespondentswereconfidentaboutimmediate

spendingintentions.


“InGermany,astableeconomicsituationandastronglabormarkethad

apositiveimpactonconsumerconfidenceinthepast12months,”said

IngoSchier,managingdirector,NielsenGermany.“Comparedtolast

year,moreGermanswerewillingtospendmoney.Groceryanddrug-

storespendingthisyearhasbeenatacontinuouslyhigherlevelthanthe

previousyear,withsalesup1.6%and4.6%,respectively.Risingincomes

andpersistentlylowinterestratessuggestthattheconsumerclimate

willstaypositiveinGermanyforthelong-term,butterrorismconcerns

andarmedconflictsthreatentodampentheseeffects.”

Severalothercountriespostedtheirhighestconfidencescoresin

severalyears:TheU.K.’sscoreof97reachedthehighestlevelsince

2006;Ireland(92)reacheditshighestsince2008,Spain(67)reached

itshighestsince2010,andPortugal(59)reacheditshighestsince

2006.Conversely,ongoinggeopoliticaltensionsbetweenRussiaand

theUkrainelikelycontributedtonewconfidencelowsreportedinthese

countries.Russia’sindexfellforthesecondconsecutivequarterto

72,alevellowerthanitsconfidencereadingattheheightoftheGreat

Recession,andtheUkraine’sscoredropped11pointsto41inthefirst

quarter.

“ThenormallyresilientRussianconsumerisunderseverestrainright

now,”saidKyriakosKyriakou,regionaldirector,NielsenEasternEurope.

“Themassivecurrencydevaluationattheendof2014ledtoaflourish

ofconsumerspendinginanattempttogetaheadofinflation.Now,

spikinginflationandnegativewagegrowtharetakingtheirtoll.Inthe

newmarketconditions,manufacturersandretailerswillfightfora

smallershareofshopperwalletsasthemajorityofRussianshaveeither

switchedintosavingsmodeorhavenosparecashtospend.Today,it’s

morecriticalthanevertogetthe“pricevs.volume”equationrightin

ordertomaintainmarketshare.Cheaperproductsarelikelytogenerate

moresalesvolumesthanever—aslongasqualityisnotcompromised.”


CONFIDENCE IN EUROPE IS IMPROVING BUT STILL NOT AT PRE-RECESSION LEVELS FOR MANY


EXCEPT FOR GERMANY, EUROPE'S BIG

ECONOMIES CONTINUE TO FALL BELOW THE GLOBAL AVERAGE

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RUSSIA

GLOBAL AVG GERMANY

UNITEDKINGDOM

SPAIN FRANCE ITALY

10-YEAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TREND IN SELECT EUROPEAN MARKETS



U.S. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO CLIMB, WHILE CANADIAN CONFIDENCE DECLINES U.S.consumerconfidenceincreasedoneindexpointinthefirstquarter

toascoreof107,maintaininganabove-the-baselineoptimismlevelfor

ayearnow.Conversely,confidencedeclinedinCanadasixpointsto96,

whichisthecountry’slowestscoresince2012.

IntheU.S.,theonlyconfidenceindicatorthatincreasedinthefirst

quarterwasjobprospects,risingfivepercentagepointsto55%,while

personalfinancesentimentandimmediatespendingintentionsdeclined

twopercentagepointseachto62%and50%,respectively,fromfourth-

quarter2014.Recessionarysentimentreachedanewlowof50%,down

from55%thepreviousquarterand65%sixmonthsago.

“IntheU.S.,optimismcontinuedtomoveforwardinthefirstquarter,

likelyinfluencedbytheadditionofnearly600,000newjobsandlow

gasolineprices,whichputmoremoneyinconsumers’wallets,”said

JamesRusso,seniorvicepresident,NielsenGlobalConsumerInsights.

“Consumerspendingpickedupinthefirstquarter,withfast-moving

consumergoodssalesrising2.5%,comparedtoanannualincrease

ofonly1.4%during2014.While2015isofftoagoodstart,halfof

Americansarestillinarecessionarymindset,andnearly35%saythey

livepaychecktopaycheck.Asthisundercurrentofuncertaintystill

permeates,consumerscontinuetothinkcarefullyabouthowandwhere

theyspendtheirmoney.”

InCanada,adownbeateconomicoutlookledtoa10-percentagepoint

declineinsentimentaboutjobprospectsto44%—thelowestlevel

since2009—andasix-percentagepointdeclineforimmediatespending

intentionsto37%,thelowestlevelsince2012.Sentimentaboutpersonal

financesalsodroppedsevenpercentagepointsto55%fromfourth-

quarter2014.


“InCanada,consumerconfidencestillremainsvolatileanduncertain

eventhoughtherecessioniswellbehindus,”saidCarmanAllison,vice

presidentofconsumerinsights,NielsenCanada.“Therearemyriad

factorsintheCanadianmarketthatarecurrentlycontributingtoa

declineinoptimism.Adropinconfidenceisnormalfollowingthe

holidayspendingseasonwhenthebillsstartrollingin,butthisyear

consumerswerealsoreelingfromtheeffectsofthecoldestwinterin

25years,whichledmanytospendmoretimeindoors.Exacerbatingthe

situationfurtherwasthedropinoilprices,whichledtosignificantjob

lossesinthecountry.Whileconsumersmaybesavingatthepump,the

costofmostotheressentialsisontherise,andinflationarypressures

stillplaguewallets.”

U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO CLIMB

10-YEAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TREND IN NORTH AMERICA


THE U.S. RETURNS TO PRE-RECESSION

CONFIDENCE

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2009

-Q4

2010

-Q1

2010

-Q2

2010

-Q3

2010

-Q4

2011-

Q1

2011-

Q2

2011-

Q3

2011-

Q4

2012

-Q1

2012

-Q2

2012

-Q3

2012

-Q4

2013

-Q1

2013

-Q2

2013

-Q3

2013

-Q4

2014

-Q1

2014

-Q2

2014

-Q3

2014

-Q4

2015

-Q1

UNITED STATES

CANADA GLOBAL AVG



LATIN AMERICA SHOWED DIVERGENT AND UNEVEN GROWTH AS CONFIDENCE IN BRAZIL CONTINUED TO DECLINE OfsevenLatinAmericanmarkets,Chile(87)andArgentina(75)showed

consumerconfidencegainsofsixandeightpoints,respectively,while

theregion’seconomicengine,Brazil(88),continuedtofallforthe

secondconsecutivequarter,asconfidencedeclinedsevenpointsto

thelowestlevelsince2009.ConfidenceinVenezuela(65)alsofellfive

points,whilePeru’sscore(99),thehighestintheregion,droppedtwo

pointsinthefirstquarter.ConfidenceinColombiaheldsteadyat94


Sentimentabouttheoutlookforjobprospectsacrosstheregion

forthenext12monthsdeclinedfourpercentagepointsto27%,and

personalfinancessentimentfelltwopercentagepointsto56%,while

immediatespendingintentionsincreasedonepercentagepointto36%.

Recessionarysentimentgrewintheregion,risingfrom73%attheend

oflastyearto78%inthefirstquarter—thehighestofalltheregions.

InBrazil,sentimentaboutfuturejobprospectsdeclined10percentage

pointsto27%—anewlowforthecountry,whilepersonalfinances

sentimentdecreasedsixpercentagepointsto60%,thesecondlowest

levelin10years.ThenumberofBrazilianswhobelievedtheywerein

recessionincreasedto85%from73%thepreviousquarterandfrom55%

fromayearago.


“InBrazil,theresultsreflecttheuncertaintyoverthecountry’sability

toincreasegrowthratesintheshort-term,returntomoremoderate

inflationlevelsandavoidfurtherunemploymentincreases,”saidLuis

Arjona,countrymanager,NielsenBrazil.“Concernedwiththeoverall

economicenvironment,Brazilianconsumershavebecomemore

conservativewiththeirdisposableincome,reducingout-of-home

spending,whilebuyingmoreonplannedtripsatgrocerystores.They

arealsoincreasingtheshareofgroceryspendatdiscountstoresand

reducingspendonimpulsecategories.”

CONFIDENCE IN BRAZIL DECLINES TO LOWEST LEVEL IN 10 YEARS

10-YEAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TREND IN SELECT LATIN AMERICAN MARKETS

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

2005

-Q1

2005

-Q3

2006

-Q1

2006

-Q3

2007

-Q1

2007

-Q3

2008

-Q1

2008

-Q3

2009

-Q1

2009

-Q2

2009

-Q3

2009

-Q4

2010

-Q1

2010

-Q2

2010

-Q3

2010

-Q4

2011-

Q1

2011-

Q2

2011-

Q3

2011-

Q4

2012

-Q1

2012

-Q2

2012

-Q3

2012

-Q4

2013

-Q1

2013

-Q2

2013

-Q3

2013

-Q4

2014

-Q1

2014

-Q2

2014

-Q3

2014

-Q4

2015

-Q1

BRAZIL MEXICO

GLOBAL AVG


BRAZIL DROPS BELOW THE GLOBAL AVERAGE

IN 2014-2015



THE MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA REGION SHOWS SLOW BUT STABLE PROGRESSConsumerconfidenceincreasedinthreeoffivecountriesmeasuredin

theMiddleEast/Africaregioninthefirstquarter.At115,theUnitedArab

Emirateshadthehighestindexintheregion,anincreaseofonepoint

fromfourth-quarter2014.ConfidencealsoincreasedfivepointsinSaudi

Arabiato107andonepointinPakistanto102.Conversely,confidence

decreasedonepointinSouthAfricato87andremainedsteadyinEgypt

at90.

Intheregion,sentimentaboutjobprospectsedgeduponepercentage

pointto44%,whilepersonalfinancessentimentandimmediate

spendingintentionsremainedflatat60%and39%,respectively,from

fourth-quarter2014.JobconfidenceimprovedmostinEgypt,rising

threepercentagepointsto43%,whileinPakistan,thepersonalfinance

outlookrosefivepercentagepointsfromfourth-quarter2014.

RecessionarysentimentdeclinedinthreeoutoffiveMiddleEast/Africa

markets:EgyptandSouthAfricaeachdeclinedtwopercentagepointsto

79%and70%,respectively,andSaudiArabiadeclinedonepercentage

pointto43%.

Regionally,quarter-on-quarterdiscretionaryspendingandsaving

intentionsdecreasedorheldsteadyformostlifestylecategories.

Spendingintentionsforhomeentertainmentexpenses,buyingnew

clothesandtakingholidays/vacationsdeclined,whileintentionsfor

puttingmoneyintosavingsaccountsincreasedandthepercentagesfor

investingandsavingforretirementwereflatfromthepreviousquarter.


CONFIDENCE IN THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES REMAINS STRONG

10-YEAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TREND IN SELECT MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA MARKETS

120

140

100

80

60

40

20

0

2005

-Q1

2005

-Q3

2006

-Q1

2006

-Q3

2007

-Q1

2007

-Q3

2008

-Q1

2008

-Q3

2009

-Q1

2009

-Q2

2009

-Q3

2009

-Q4

2010

-Q1

2010

-Q2

2010

-Q3

2010

-Q4

2011-

Q1

2011-

Q2

2011-

Q3

2011-

Q4

2012

-Q1

2012

-Q2

2012

-Q3

2012

-Q4

2013

-Q1

2013

-Q2

2013

-Q3

2013

-Q4

2014

-Q1

2014

-Q2

2014

-Q3

2014

-Q4

2015

-Q1

UNITED ARABEMIRATES

EGYPTSOUTH AFRICA

GLOBAL AVG

AFTER SEVERALTUMULTUOUS

YEARS, EGYPT SHOWS SOME STABILIZATION




CONFIDENCE RISES IN NIGERIA, BUT DECLINES IN KENYA AND GHANAConsumerconfidenceincreasedtwoindexpointsinNigeriainthe

firstquartertoascoreof129—thehighestscoreofthethreecountries

measuredinNielsen’smobilesurveyforsub-SaharanAfrica.Conversely,

confidencedecreasedninepointsinKenya(104)andthreepointsin

Ghana(99)fromfourth-quarter2014.

ThethreecountrieswereaddedtoNielsen’smeasurementof

consumerconfidenceinthefirstquarterof2014usingamobilesurvey

methodology,whichdiffersfromtheonlinemethodologyusedtoreport

consumerconfidenceandspendingintentionsfortheother60countries

outlinedinthisreport.Assuch,thethreesub-SaharanAfricanmarkets

arenotincludedintheglobalorMiddleEast/Africaaveragesdiscussed

throughoutthisreport.

InNigeria,sentimentforpersonalfinancesandimmediatespending

intentionsincreasedmarginallyinthefirstquarterbyoneandthree

percentagepoints,respectively,whilesentimentabouttheoutlookfor

jobsdeclinedtwopercentagepointsto62%.Conversely,sentimentfor

allthreeindicatorsdeclinedinbothKenyaandGhana.

InKenya,reversingtheincreasesreportedinfourth-quarter2014,the

sentimentabouttheoutlookforjobprospectsdroppedsignificantly,

decreasing13percentagepointsto49%.Sentimentforpersonal

finances(64%)andimmediatespendingintentions(32%)alsodeclined

fiveandninepercentagepoints,respectively,inthefirstquarter.In

Ghana,jobprospectsentimentdeclinedfourpercentagepointsto38%,

personalfinancessentimentdeclinedtwopercentagepointsto64%and

immediatespendingintentionsdeclinedonepercentagepointto35%


Themajorityofrespondentsinthethreecountries(69%inKenya,67%

inGhanaand62%inNigeria)saidtheydidnothavesparecash,a

levelthatincreased10percentagepointsinKenyaandonepercentage

pointinNigeriafromfourth-quarter2014.Amongthosewhodidclaim

discretionaryfunds,whilesavingcontinuedtobeapriorityforthe


majority,intentionstoputmoneyintosavingsaccountsdeclined10

percentagepointsinNigeria(76%),sevenpercentagepointsinGhana

(78%)andsixpercentagepointsinKenya(83%)inthefirstquarter.

Discretionaryspendingintentionsforhomeimprovementprojectswere

thesecond-biggestpriorityamongrespondentsinallthreecountries.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE-THE-BASELINE FOR NIGERIA AND KENYA

YEAR-OVER-YEAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TREND IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA MARKETS

120

140

100

80

60

40

20

0

GHANA

OPTIMISM RUNSCONSISTENTLY

STRONG IN THESECOUNTRIES

NIGERIA

KENYA

Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015

BASELINE

Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12015 Sub-SaharanAfricacountriesuseamobilemethodolgy


Source:InternetWorldStats,June30,2014

MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION

Australia 94%

China 47%

HongKong 81%

India 20%

Indonesia 28%

Japan 86%

Malaysia 67%

NewZealand 95%

Philippines 41%

Singapore 80%

South Korea 92%

Taiwan 80%

Thailand 30%

Vietnam 44%

MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION MARKET INTERNET

PENETRATION


Austria 87%

Belgium 90%

Bulgaria 59%

Croatia 71%

CzechRepublic 78%

Denmark 97%

Estonia 83%


Egypt 53%

Pakistan 15%

SaudiArabia 67%

SouthAfrica 52%

UnitedArabEmirates

96%


Canada 95%

UnitedStates 87%

MARKET MOBILE PENETRATION*

Ghana 99%

Kenya 68%

Nigeria 64%

COUNTRIES IN THE STUDY

ASIA-PACIFIC

EUROPE

MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

LATIN AMERICAEUROPE

Finland 97%

France 83%

Germany 87%

Greece 60%

Hungary 75%

Ireland 69%

Israel 76%

Italy 59%

Latvia 75%

Lithuania 69%

Netherlands 96%

Norway 95%

Poland 67%

Portugal 65%

Romania 51%

Russia 61%

Serbia 65%

Slovakia 82%

Slovenia 76%

Spain 75%

Sweden 95%

Switzerland 89%

Turkey 57%

UnitedKingdom 90%

Ukraine 42%

Argentina 75%

Brazil 54%

Chile 67%

Colombia 62%

Mexico 49%

Peru 42%

Venezuela 50%

*Basedonmobilehandsetsdividedbypopulation.Source:CIAWorldFactbook,2012


ABOUT THE NIELSEN GLOBAL SURVEY TheNielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpending

IntentionswasconductedFeb.23-March13,2015andpolledmore

than30,000onlineconsumersin60countriesthroughoutAsia-Pacific,

Europe,LatinAmerica,theMiddleEast/AfricaandNorthAmerica.

Thesamplehasquotasbasedonageandsexforeachcountrybased

onitsInternetusersandisweightedtoberepresentativeofInternet

consumers.Ithasamarginoferrorof±0.6%.ThisNielsensurveyis

basedonlyonthebehaviorofrespondentswithonlineaccess.Internet

penetrationratesvarybycountry.Nielsenusesaminimumreporting

standardof60%Internetpenetrationoranonlinepopulationof10

millionforsurveyinclusion.TheChinaConsumerConfidenceIndex

iscompiledfromaseparatemixedmethodologysurveyamong3,500

respondentsinChina.Thesub-SaharanAfricancountriesinthisstudy

arecompiledfromaseparatemobilemethodologysurveyamong1,600

respondentsinGhana,KenyaandNigeria.TheNielsenGlobalSurvey,

whichincludestheGlobalConsumerConfidenceIndex,wasestablished

in2005.

ABOUT NIELSEN NielsenN.V.(NYSE:NLSN)isaglobalperformancemanagement

companythatprovidesacomprehensiveunderstandingofwhat

consumersWatchandBuy.Nielsen’sWatchsegmentprovidesmediaand

advertisingclientswithTotalAudiencemeasurementservicesacrossall

deviceswherecontent—video,audioandtext—isconsumed.TheBuy

segmentoffersconsumerpackagedgoodsmanufacturersandretailers

theindustry’sonlyglobalviewofretailperformancemeasurement.By

integratinginformationfromitsWatchandBuysegmentsandotherdata

sources,Nielsenprovidesitsclientswithbothworld-classmeasurement

aswellasanalyticsthathelpimproveperformance.Nielsen,anS&P500

company,hasoperationsinover100countriesthatcovermorethan90

percentoftheworld’spopulation.

Formoreinformation,visitwww.nielsen.com.

Copyright©2015TheNielsenCompany.Allrightsreserved.Nielsenand

theNielsenlogoaretrademarksorregisteredtrademarksofCZT/ACN

Trademarks,L.L.C.Otherproductandservicenamesaretrademarksor

registeredtrademarksoftheirrespectivecompanies.15/8827

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