consumer confidence - nielsen...consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100...

C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C ECONCERNS AND SPENDING INTENTIONS AROUND THE WORLDQUARTER 3, 2014

2014 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES | 3RD EDITION

2 QUARTER 3 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT2

• Globalconsumerconfidencemakesslow,steadyprogress,advancingoneindexpointforthesecondconsecutivequarterto98—twopointsawayfromtheoptimismbaselineof100

• NorthAmericaconsumerconfidencerisesfourindexpointsto107,matchingAsia-Pacific’sscore

• Optimismaboutjobprospectsisimprovingmorequicklythanpersonalfinances

• MostNorthAmericansarepositiveaboutimmediatespendingintentions—theonlyregiontoreachamajoritypercentageof51%

• Globaldiscretionaryspendingintentionsremainstableformostcategories

• Concernsabouttheeconomyandjobsecuritydeclinearoundtheworld,butotherworriesincrease

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REFLECTS AN OUTLOOK OF CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM

Globalconsumerconfidenceedgeduponeindexpointinthethird

quartertoascoreof98—anincreaseofonepointfromtheprevious

quarterandtwopointsfromthestartoftheyear.Theindex,whichhas

beenonaslowandsteadyrisefortwoandahalfyears(sinceQ12012),

hasnowexceededapre-recessionlevelof94forthreeconsecutive

quarters.Thelatestresultsreflectanoutlookofcautiousoptimism,as

everyregion’sconsumerconfidencescoreimprovedfromtheprevious

quarter.

3Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company 3

ABOUT THE GLOBAL SURVEY METHODOLOGY

Thefindingsinthissurveyare

basedonrespondentswith

onlineaccessin60countries

(unlessotherwisenoted).While

anonlinesurveymethodology

allowsfortremendousscale

andglobalreach,itprovidesa

perspectiveonlyonthehabits

ofexistingInternetusers,not

totalpopulations.Indeveloping

marketswhereonlinepenetration

isstillgrowing,audiencesmay

beyoungerandmoreaffluent

thanthegeneralpopulationof

thatcountry.Inaddition,survey

responsesarebasedonclaimed

behaviorratherthanactual

metereddata.

ConsumerconfidenceintheNorthAmericaregionimprovedmost,

risingfourpointsto107—ascorethatmatchesAsia-Pacific’sscorefor

thefirsttimeinNielsen’sConsumerConfidencehistory(since2005);

Asia-Pacific’sscoreincreasedonepoint.Confidencealsoincreasedthree

pointsintheMiddleEast/Africa(96),onepointinLatinAmerica(91)

andonepointinEurope(78),fromthepreviousquarter.

TheNielsenconsumerconfidenceindexmeasuresperceptionsoflocal

jobprospects,personalfinancesandimmediatespendingintentions.

Consumerconfidencelevelsaboveandbelowabaselineof100indicate

degreesofoptimismandpessimism,respectively.TheNielsenGlobal

SurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpendingIntentions,established

in2005,measuresconsumerconfidence,majorconcernsandspending

intentionsamongmorethan30,000respondentswithInternetaccessin

60countries.

“OutsideofNorthAmerica,arangeofregion-andcountry-specific

factorsaretranslatingintoweakerandmoreunevenimprovements

inconsumerconfidence,”saidDr.LouiseKeely,seniorvicepresident,

Nielsen.“Europeisbeingdirectlyaffectedbythegeopoliticalcrisis

inUkraine,andisalsoatacriticalpolicyjunctureconcerningsteps

topreventdeflationandimprovegrowth.Amongmajoremerging

economies,whileIndiaisdisplayingrenewedpotentialforaccelerating

growthfromitsnewgovernment,Chinaismovinginadifferent

directionasitre-orientsitseconomytowardgreaterdomestic

consumption.”

Amongtheworld’sbiggesteconomies,consumerconfidenceincreased

fourpointsintheU.S.(108),onepointinGermany(97),threepoints

intheU.K.(93)andfourpointsinJapan(77),fromthesecondquarter.

Meanwhile,consumerconfidenceinChinaheldsteadyat111forthe

fourthconsecutivequarter.

Inthelatestonlinesurvey,conductedAug.13–Sept.5,2014,consumer

confidenceincreasedin39of60marketsmeasuredbyNielsen(65%),

comparedwith31markets(52%)inthesecondquarter.India’sscoreof

126,thehighestindexamong60markets,nevertheless,representeda

declineoftwopointsfromthesecondquarter.Italyreportedthelowest

scoreof47,aquarterlydeclineoffourpoints.Australia(97)showedthe

biggestimprovement,asconfidencereturnedtoyear-agoperformance.

Chile(85)loggedthebiggestdecline,asconfidencetherefellseven

pointsfromthepreviousquarter.

4 QUARTER 3 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ3-2014 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

*SurveyisbasedonrespondentswithInternetaccess.Chinasurveyresultsreflectamixedmethodology.Indexlevelsaboveandbelow100indicatedegreesofoptimism/pessimism.

Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q32014

+2-5

+8+3

0

+4

+4

+3

-2

+4

+5

+1

+3

+4

+1

+1

+6

+3

+1

-1

+12

0+3

+3+6

+4+3+2+6+6+1-1-7

+3+1

+4+1

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0

+4

+7

+2

0

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87 N

ETHERLAN

DS

87 RUSSIA

88 M

EXICO 89

AUSTRIA 90 SW

EDEN 92 ISRAEL

SOUTH KOREA 52

93 UNITED KINGDOM

PORTUGAL 53

95 NORWAY

HUNGARY 56

GREECE 56

97 AUSTRALIA

UKRAINE 57

97 PERU

SLOVENIA

58

97 GERMANY

FRANCE 59

98 COLOMBIA

FINLAND 64

99 MALAYSIA

SPAIN 65

100 SWITZERLAND

ARGENTINA 68

101 BRAZIL

VENEZUELA 70 102 VIETNAMSLOVAKIA 72 102 NEW ZEALAND

ROMANIA 73

103 CANADA

POLAND 73

103 SINGAPORE

BULGARIA 76

103 PAKISTAN

JAPAN 77

104 DENMARK

LATVIA 78

105 SAUDI ARABIA

TAIWAN 7

9

107 HONG KONG

ESTONIA 80

108 UNITED STATES

CZECH REPUBLIC 8

0

111 C

HINA

BELGIU

M

81

112

UNITE

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IREL

AND

84

113

THAILA

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85

115

PHIL

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85

125

IN

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86

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IN

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MORE CONFIDENT

-1

CROATIA

49

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ITALY47

NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA EUROPE AFRICA, MIDDLE EAST ASIA-PACIFIC

98 ( +1 change from Q2-2014 )

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY – 60 Countries – 3-Month TrendQ3-2014 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index

Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism.

INDEXES ABOVE 100 INDICATE OPTIMISM

GLOBALAVERAGE

5Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company

60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ3-2014 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

5

JOB PROSPECTS IMPROVE FASTER THAN PERSONAL FINANCES Justoverhalfofglobalrespondents(52%)believedthejobmarketwouldbegoodorexcellentinthenext12months,a2percentage-pointincreasefromthesecondquarter.Thismodestincreasefollowssteadybutsmallupticksreportedduringthepastfiveyearssince2009whenemploymentsentimentdroppedtoanaverageannuallowof31%duringthatyear.

Whileperceptionsofpersonalfinanceshavebecomemorepositivesince2009,consumers’overallsentimentaboutpersonalfinanceshasnotimprovedassignificantlyastheirsentimentabouttheiremploymentopportunities.Fifty-sevenpercentofglobalrespondentsratedtheirpersonalfinancesasgoodorexcellentfortheupcomingyear,comparedtotheaverageannuallowreportedin2009of46%—an11percentage-pointincrease.Bycontrast,thesentimentforjobprospectsincreased21percentagepointsoverthesametimeperiod.

“Alonger-termtrendhasbeenthedivergencebetweentheeconomicfortunesofthemiddleclassindevelopedmarketsandthoseinemergingmarkets,”saidDr.Keely.“IntheU.S.andWesternEurope,themiddlehasbeenstructurallyweakenedwhilethelow-wagesectorhasgrown.Thereisalsoagrowingdividebetweenyoungerandolderpeople,especiallywithinEurope,withtheformerexperiencinghighratesofunemploymentandunderemployment.Bycontrast,themiddleclassgrewstronglyinemergingmarketsduringthepreviousdecade,andwhilerecentlythattrendhasslowed,itcanstillbeexpectedtocontinue.Goingforward,thesedisparitieswithinandacrosscountriescanbeexpectedtohavealargeimpactontheoveralllevelandpatternsindiscretionaryspending.”

NorthAmericanrespondentsshowedthemostdramaticincreaseinjobprospectexpectations,asperceptionsaboutemploymentopportunitiesroseto55%inthethirdquarter—a9percentage-pointimprovementin12months(from46%inQ32013).Positiveperceptionsforlocaljobprospectsincreasedinseveralotherregionsinthepast12monthsaswell:7percentagepointsinAsia-Pacificto66%,6percentagepointsintheMiddleEast/Africato46%and5percentagepointsinEuropeto31%.Conversely,LatinAmericawastheonlyregionwithadeclineinjobsentiment,dropping8percentagepointssincethirdquarter2013to34%.


JOB SENTIMENT IS IMPROVING FASTER THAN PERSONAL FINANCES

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2009

-Q1

2009

-Q2

2009

-Q3

2009

-Q4

2010

-Q1

2010

-Q2

2010

-Q3

2010

-Q4

2011

-Q1

2011

-Q2

2011

-Q3

2011

-Q4

2012

-Q1

2012

-Q2

2012

-Q3

2012

-Q4

2013

-Q1

2013

-Q2

2013

-Q3

2013

-Q4

2014

-Q1

2014

-Q2

2014

-Q3

JOB PROSPECTS PERSONAL FINANCES

52%

Q3 2014+21 Points

Q3 2014+11 Points

46% 2009

31% 2009

57%


NorthAmericansweremostconfidentinthestateoftheirpersonal

finances,asexpressedinariseof2percentagepointsfromtheprevious

quarterto65%,followedbyAsia-Pacific(63%),LatinAmerica(61%)and

theMiddleEast/Africa.Europeanswereleastconfidentintheirpersonal

financesat38%,adeclineof1percentagepointfromthepreviousquarter.


DISCRETIONARY SPENDING INTENTIONS REMAIN STABLE FOR MOSTConsideringthatmorethanhalfofglobalrespondents(54%)believed

theircountrywasinrecessioninthethirdquarter,it’sunderstandable

thatmanystillmaintaincautious-about-spendingattitudes.

ArecessionarysentimentwasstrongestinmanyEuropeancountries.

Morethanthreequartersofrespondentsin12of32Europeancountries

felttheircountrywasinrecession,withthehighestpercentagesinItaly

(96%),Croatia(96%)andSerbia(92%).Butthosefeelingswerealso

pervasiveinotherregions,too.Morethanthree-quartersofrespondents

inVenezuela(91%),Argentina(87%),SouthKorea(87%),Egypt(85%)

andPakistan(77%)alsobelievedtheircountrywasinrecessioninthe

thirdquarter.


Spendingperceptionsforthenext12monthsimprovedmarginallyin

thethirdquarterinallregionsexceptAsia-Pacific,whichwasflatwith

thesecondquarter.Spendingperceptionsincreased2percentagepoints

inNorthAmerica—theonlyregiontoreachamajoritypercentageof

51%,thehighestlevelfortheregioninNielsen’sConsumerConfidence

history(since2005).Perceptionstospendwasconsiderablylowerin

Asia-Pacific(43%),theMiddleEast/Africa(38%),LatinAmerica(37%)

andinEurope(31%).

Assuch,globaldiscretionaryspending/savingintentionsinthethird

quarterwereflatacrossmostcategories,withmarginal1percentage-

pointgainsforsavingsparecash(49%),forsavingforretirement(12%)

andforspendingonholidays/vacations(36%).Aboutone-thirdplanto

spendonnewclothes(34%)andout-of-homeentertainment(31%)—

bothrepresentnochangefromthepreviousquarter.One-fourthintends

tospendonnewtechnology(adeclineof2percentagepoints)andpay

offdebts/creditcards/loans(flatfromQ2).Aboutone-fifthexpectto

spendonhomeimprovements(22%)andinvestinstock/mutualfunds

(20%),adeclineof1percentagepointeachfromthesecondquarter.

Morethansixoutof10Asia-Pacificrespondents(62%)madesaving

apriorityinthethirdquarter—20percentagepointshigherthanthe

percentageofNorthAmericans(42%)anddoubleoralmostdoublethe

percentagesinLatinAmerica(31%),Europe(36%)andtheMiddleEast/

Africa(39%).ThedesiretopayoffdebtswashighestinNorthAmerica

(35%)andLatinAmerica(32%).Savingforretirementwashighestin

NorthAmerica(19%).Spendingonhomeimprovementswashighestin

Europe(23%)andNorthAmerica(23%).MiddleEast/Africashowedthe

highestpercentageofthosewithoutsparecash(22%).

GLOBAL AVERAGE


SPARE CASH SPENDING INTENTIONS REMAIN STABLE FROM Q2

Q2 2014 Q3 2014

48

35

34

31

27

25

23

21

11

13

49

36

34

31

25

25

22

20

12

13

PUTTING INTO SAVINGS

HOLIDAYS / VACATIONS

NEW CLOTHES

OUT OF HOMEENTERTAINMENT

NEW TECHNOLOGYPRODUCTS

PAYING OFF DEBTS /CREDIT CARDS / LOANS

HOME IMPROVEMENTS / DECORATING

INVESTING IN SHARES OFSTOCK / MUTUAL FUNDS

RETIREMENT FUND

I HAVE NO SPARE CASH

GLOBAL AVERAGE

%



CONCERNS ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND JOB SECURITY DECLINE, AS OTHER CONCERNS INCREASE Theeconomyremainedatopconcernforrespondentsaroundtheworld,

butsentimentisweakeningasworriesaboutotherconcernsincrease.

InNorthAmerica,27%ofrespondentssaidtheeconomywastheir

biggestorsecond-biggestconcernforthenextsixmonths—downfrom

34%inthepreviousquarter.Jobsecurityworriesincreasedslightly

1percentagepointto16%fromthesecondquarter.Otherconcerns

thatwanedinthethirdquarterinclude:debt(16%),foodprices(15%)

andfuelprices(9%),down5,6and6percentagepoints,respectively.

Conversely,fearsaboutterrorismspiked8percentagepointsto14%,

concernsaboutwarrose5percentagepointsto9%andworriesabout

work/lifebalanceincreased3percentagepointsto12%.

InAsia-Pacific,concernsabouthealthreplacedtheeconomyasthe

biggestorsecond-biggestconcern,climbing6percentagepointsto30%

inthethirdquarter.Worriesabouttheeconomydeclined3percentage

pointsto27%,andconcernsaboutjobsremainedstableat21%.Work/

lifebalanceworriesincreased2percentagepointsto27%fromtothe

secondquarter.

InEurope,21%ofrespondentssaidjobsecuritywastheirbiggestor

second-biggestconcernforthenextsixmonths,down3percentage

pointsfromthepreviousquarter.Worriesabouttheeconomyalso

waned,dropping1percentagepointto20%inthethirdquarter.Other

decliningconcernsinclude:utilitybills(19%)andhealth(17%),down

1and2percentagepoints,respectively.Conversely,worriesaboutwar

increased8percentagepointsto18%,andfearsaboutterrorismrose4

percentagepointsto9%fromthesecondquarter.

PERCENTAGE FOR SOME OF THE BIGGEST AND SECOND-BIGGEST CONCERNS AND CHANGE FROM Q2


Jobsecuritywasthebiggestorsecond-biggestconcernintheLatin

AmericaandMiddleEast/Africaregionsfor25%and29%ofrespondents,

respectively,declinesof1and2percentagepointseachfromthesecond

quarter.Worriesabouttheeconomy,however,buckedthedownward

trendreportedintheotherregionsandincreased2percentagepointsin

bothLatinAmerica(to26%)andtheMiddleEast/Africa(to22%).Other

concernsinLatinAmericaincludedcrime(21%)andhealth(20%),which

eachdecreased1percentagepoint.OthermajorconcernsintheMiddle

East/Africaincludedparents’welfare(18%)andterrorism(14%),which

declined1and3percentagepoints,respectively.

CONCERNS AROUND THE WORLD

PERCENTAGE FOR SOME OF THE BIGGEST AND SECOND-BIGGEST CONCERNS AND CHANGE FROM Q2

ECONOMY

ASIA-PACIFIC

EUROPE LATIN AMERICA

MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

JOB SECURITY

HEALTH

WAR

TERRORISM

WORK/LIFE BALANCE

27%

21%

30%

27%

5%

6%

20%

21%

17%

10%

18%

9%

26%

25%

20%

17%

4%

2%

22%

29%

12%

12%

5%

14%

27%

16%

16%

12%

9%

14%

=

==

=



NORTH AMERICAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE RISES AGAIN U.S.consumerconfidenceincreasedfourindexpointsforthesecond

consecutivequartertoreachascoreof108inthethirdquarter.The

risecontinuedanupwardtrendthatstartedinfirst-quarter2013,and

confidenceintheU.S.hasincreased15-pointssincethen.Confidence

alsoincreasedinCanada,risingonepointtoanindexlevelof103from

thepreviousquarter.

IntheU.S.,allconsumerconfidenceindicatorsincreasedinthe

thirdquarter,reachinglevelsnotreportedsince2007:Jobprospect

confidenceincreased9percentagepointsto55%,personalfinance

confidenceincreased2percentagepointsto66%andtheportion

ofrespondentswhobelievenowisagoodtimetobuyincreased2

percentagepointsto51%fromthesecondquarter.

“U.S.consumersarenowfeelingfarmoreconfidentthaninprevious

yearsoftherecoveryduetoconsistentlygoodjobmarkettrends

reflectedinsteadypayrollgrowthandfallingunemploymentoverthe

courseof2014,”saidDr.Keely.“Theyarealsobenefitingfromlower

gasolinepricesandagraduallyimprovinghousingmarket.Inthe

comingmonths,aswestarttoseemorepeoplereenteringtheworkforce

andmeaningfulwagegrowth,thisislikelytotranslateintobroad-based

gainsinconsumerspending.”

“ThepercentageofU.S.consumerswhobelievetheyareinarecession

declined3percentagepointsinthethirdquarterto65%,”saidJames

Russo,seniorvicepresident,GlobalConsumerInsights,Nielsen.“While

thedeclinerepresentsgoodnews,arecessionarymindsetstilllingers,

whichisimpactingcurrentretailsalesthatareonalong,slowrideto

improvement.”

LikewiseinCanada,theoutlookforjobsincreased6percentagepoints

to56%,andspendingintentionsincreased5percentagepointsto

51%.However,perceptionsaboutpersonalfinancestrendedslightly

downward,declining1percentagepointto61%.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX IN NORTH AMERICA


CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX IN NORTH AMERICA

CANADA UNITED STATES

93 96

98

94

100

104

108

102

98 97

100 99

102 103

Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014


Intheregion,quarter-on-quarterdiscretionaryspendingintentions

increasedmarginallyforbuyingnewclothes(32%),payingoffdebts/

creditcards/loans(35%)andputtingmoneyintosavingsaccounts

(42%),retirementfunds(19%)andinvestments(15%).Discretionary

spendingintentionswereflatforholidays/vacations(31%),out-of-home

entertainment(22%)andnewtechnology(21%).


PROGRESS IN EUROPE REMAINS SLOW ConsumerconfidenceinEuropeincreasedin59%ofmarketsmeasured

inthethirdquarter,comparedto72%thatincreasedinthesecond

quarter.Sixof32marketsreportednochange.ConfidenceinGermany,

thebiggesteconomyintheregion,increasedoneindexpointtoascore

of97—acontinuationofsmallupticksoverthepastseveralquarterstoa

near-baselinescore,whichstandsinstarkcontrasttotheaverageindex

scoreintheregionof78.

“Comparedwithmosteurozonecountries,theGermaneconomyhas

prosperedsofar,”saidIngoSchier,managingdirector,NielsenGermany.

“Increasingincomes,stablepricesandarobustlabormarketarehelping

tokeepGermanconsumerconfidenceatahigherlevelthanthatof

othercountriesintheregion.Butthenextfewmonthswillbecritical,

asweakereconomieshavethepotentialtoaffectGermanconsumer

confidence.”

Thebiggestregionalindexincreasescomparedtothesecondquarter

camefromSlovenia(+9to58),Bulgaria(+7to76),theNetherlands

(+6to87),Turkey(+6to87)andSweden(+6to90).Othernotable

confidenceimprovementsincludedanincreaseofthreepointsinthe

U.K.toascoreof93—thethirdconsecutivequarterofrisingoptimism.

Russia’sindexalsoincreasedinthreeconsecutivequarterstoascore

of87inthethirdquarter.Conversely,confidenceinFrance(59)and

Italy(47)bothdeclined,droppingoneandfourpoints,respectively,

comparedtothesecondquarter.

“InRussia,consumersentimentisimprovingandconsumptionlevels

forfast-movingconsumergoodsremainstable,whichisapositivesign

intoday’stensepoliticalandeconomicenvironment,”saidKyriakos

Kyriakou,managingdirector,NielsenEasternEurope.“Consumersare

notswitchingtosavingstrategiesonalargescale,andpremiumbrands

areholdingtheirpositionswell.Nevertheless,thebalancebetween

spendingasusualandcost-cuttingisadelicateone,andmanufacturers

andretailersshouldbepreparedwithstrategiesthatoffergood‘value

formoney’dealstoconsumers.”


CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX INCREASES IN 59% OF EUROPEAN MARKETS

Denmark

Switzerland

Germany

Norway

UnitedKingdom

Israel

Sweden

Austria

Russia

Turkey

Netherlands

Lithuania

Ireland

Belgium

Estonia

CzechRepublic

Latvia

Bulgaria

Romania

Poland

Slovakia

Spain

Finland

France

Slovenia

Ukraine

Greece

Hungary

Portugal

Serbia

Croatia

Italy

104 |

100 |

97 |

95 |

93 |

92 |

90 |

89 |

87 |

87 |

87 |

86 |

84 |

81 |

80 |

80 |

78 |

76 |

73 |

73 |

72 |

65 |

64 |

59 |

58 |

57 |

56 |

56 |

53 |

51 |

49 |

47 |

-2

1

1

0

3

3

6

4

2

6

6

-1

3

1

1

4

0

7

0

2

0

3

-3

-1

9

-4

1

0

5

0

-1

-4

INDEX

INDEX POINT CHANGE FROM Q2

INCREASE

DECREASENO CHANGE


“InTurkey,consumerconfidencewasbuoyedbyanexpectationthatjob

prospectswouldbebetterintheyearahead,”saidRobertoPedretti,

managingdirector,NielsenTurkey.“Sentimentforemployment

opportunities,whichhaddeclinedoverthepastyear-and-a-half,isnow

ata2012level.Thisriseinoptimism,whichcameduringatimewhen

politicalelectionswereunderway,hasreflectedpositivelyatretail,which

isgrowingatadouble-digitrateof12%.”


CONFIDENCE IN ASIA-PACIFIC IS ABOVE 100 IN 9 OF 14 COUNTRIES ConsumerconfidenceinAsia-Pacificincreasedin71%ofthemarkets

measured,as10of14countriespostedincreases,threedeclinedandonewas

flat,comparedtothesecondquarter.ConfidenceinIndia(126)droppedtwo

points,nevertheless,thecountrystillpostedthehighestindexintheregion

andofthe60countriesmeasured.China’sindexheldsteadyat111forthe

fourthconsecutivequarter.Nineof14countriesintheregionreportedindex

scoresabovethebaselineof100.

“InIndia,overall,theconfidenceindexcontinuestoholdnearitsprevious

levelswiththeeuphoriaaroundtherecentlyelectedgovernmentsettling

down,”saidPiyushMathur,president,NielsenIndiaRegion.“Theconsumerin

Indiaisinthemiddleofafestivalseason,andsospendingwilllikelybehigher

thanpreviousquartersduetogiftingandentertaining.Besidestraditional

offlineretailers,e-commerceisgainingtractionfortheurbanaffluentshoppers

inIndiaandonlineretailershavebeenspurringthemarketwithdiscountsto

fuelthismovement.Theactualimpactofthisonconsumerspendingmightbe

moreevidenttowardstheendoftheyear.”

“InChina,thesustainedstrongconsumerconfidenceresultcanbeattributed

torisingdisposableincomelevelsaswageincreasesandfuturejobprospects

exceedlowinflationlevelsbyawidemargin,”saidPatrickDodd,managing

director,NielsenChina.“Astheirwealthincreases,Chineseconsumers’

spendinghabitsareswitchingfrombasicdailynecessitiestoupgraded

productsandservices.Anotherkeydriveristheconvergenceofcity-tiers.

Asconsumersinlower-tiercitiesstarttospendlikeTier1consumers,itis

apositivesignforfuturegainsindomesticconsumptionlevels.Thekeyto

gainingtheirshareofwalletisthroughadeepunderstandingoftheirsubtle

andfast-changingneedsandbyadjustingmarketingandsalesstrategies

regionallyandlocallytoensurethisexcitingnewdemandismetwiththeright

supplyattherightplaceandprice.”

Australia’sindex(97)returnedtoconsumerconfidencelevelspostedin2013

withanincreaseofonepointfromthesameperiodlastyear(Q32013).

ConfidencealsoincreasedeightpointsinThailand(113);sixpointsinMalaysia

(99);fivepointsinSingapore(103);fourpointseachinHongKong(107),

Vietnam(102),Taiwan(79)andJapan(77);andtwopointsinIndonesia(125).

India

Indonesia

Philippines

Thailand

China

HongKong

Singapore

NewZealand

Vietnam

Malaysia

Australia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

126

125

115

113

111

107

103

102

102

99

97

79

77

52

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX INCREASES IN 71% OF ASIA-PACIFIC MARKETS


-2

2

-5

8

0

4

5

3

4

6

12

4

4

-1

INDEX

INDEX POINT CHANGE FROM Q2

INCREASE

DECREASENO CHANGEINDEX

INCREASE

DECREASENO CHANGEINDEX

INCREASE

DECREASENO CHANGE


ThePhilippines(115)wastheonlySoutheastAsiancountryinwhichconfidencedeclined,decreasingfivepoints

fromthesecondquarter.SouthKoreahadthelowestindexintheregionat52,representingaone-pointdecline

fromthesecondquarter.

“Australia’sconsumerconfidencescoreisareturntomoderatelevelsofnegativityandaresultmoreinlinewith

globalconfidencetrends,”saidChrisPercy,managingdirector,NielsenPacific.“Assentimentrises,wearealso

seeinggrowthinconsumers’willingnesstospend.Almosthalf(48%)ofAustralianssaidtheybelievethenext

12monthswillbeagoodtimetopurchasethethingstheywantandneed(up3pointsfromtheprioryear).This

riseinpurchaseintentisgreatnewsforretailersasweentertheChristmasspending-spreeseason.”

“InJapan,consumerconfidencerecoveredmoderatelyinthethirdquarterastheemploymentenvironment

improvedslightly,”saidToshihiroFukutoku,managingdirector,NielsenJapan.“Anotherpositivesignwasarise

intheNikkeiStockAverage,whichincreased9.1%betweenAprilandSeptember.Amidthecurrentenvironment

ofwageerosion,inflationandexportdecline,however,personalconsumptionmaydecrease,soweare

monitoringclosely.”

“InThailand,despitehigherconfidence,theconsumerspendingpatternremainsrestrained,”saidSuresh

Ramalingam,managingdirector,NielsenThailand.“Infact,whiletheoutlookforjobsandpersonalfinance

perceptionshasimprovedinthethirdquarter,fewerconsumersbelieveitisagoodtimetospend.Assuch,

consumersaresavingmoreandcuttingdownonout-of-homeentertainmentandnewclothesexpenses.”


CONFIDENCE IN LATIN AMERICA EDGES UP ONE POINTConfidenceintheLatinAmericaregionincreasedoneindexpointtoa

scoreof91inthethirdquarter,asindexscoresincreasedinthreeofthe

sevencountriesmeasured.ConfidenceinBrazilincreasedonepoint

to101—thehighestscoreintheregion.Mexico(88)andColombia

(98)increasedthreepointseachfromthesecondquarter.Conversely,

consumerconfidencedeclinedinChile(85),downsevenpoints;

Venezuela(70),downtwopoints;andPeru(97),downonepointinthe

thirdquarter.

“InBrazil,consumerconfidenceincreasedonepointinthethird

quarter,butincreasinginflationandgrowinginterestratescontinue

inthecountry,”saidLuisArjona,clusterleader,NielsenBrazil.“While

consumerconfidenceisjustabovetheoptimismbaselineof100,itis

stillbelowlastyear’sperformance,whichaveragedanindexof109.The

stillundefinedoutcomeofthepresidentialelectionslikelyaddstofuture

uncertainty,whichmayaffectconsumerconfidenceintheshortterm.”

“TheMexicaneconomy,thesecond-largestinLatinAmerica,isina

moderaterecoveryphaseafterthefirsthalfof2014,”saidGermán

Gutiérrez,clusterleaderforNielsenMexicoandCentralAmerica.“The

EconomicActivityIndicator(IGAE)reportedarealcumulativeincrease

of1.87%inthefirstsevenmonthsofthisyear,andthenumberof

workersreceivingMexicanSocialSecurity(IMSS)rose3.7%inAugust

2014,comparedwiththeprioryear.Themanufacturingsectoralso

improvedinJuly2014,rising5.95%annually.Thesepositivetrendsbode

wellformoderateincreasesinMexicanhouseholdconsumptionforfast-

movingconsumergoodsduringthelastquarterof2014.”

Discretionaryspendingintentionsintheregionshowedmarginal

quarterlyincreasesof3percentagepointsforout-of-homeentertainment

(32%)andnewclothes(29%);and2percentagepointsforholidays/

vacations(22%),newtechnologyproducts(20%)andhome

improvements(20%).Payingoffdebts/creditcards/loanswasthe

priorityamongone-thirdofrespondents(32%),aquarterlydeclineof2

percentagepoints.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX IN LATIN AMERICA


BRAZIL

ARGENTINA

VENEZUELA

101

70

68

1

-2

0

PERU

97-1

CHILE

85-7

COLOMBIA

983

MEXICO

883

INDEXINDEX POINT CHANGE FROM Q2

INCREASE DECREASE NO CHANGE


CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA REGIONConsumerconfidenceincreasedinallfivecountriesmeasuredinthe

MiddleEast/Africaregioninthethirdquarter.At112,theUnitedArab

Emirateshadthehighestindexintheregion,anincreaseofthreepoints

fromthesecondquarter.ConfidenceincreasedtheepointsinSaudi

Arabiato105,fourpointsinPakistanto103,fourpointsinEgyptto85

andonepointinSouthAfricato86.

“ConsumersintheUnitedArabEmiratescontinuetobebullishabout

futureeconomicprospects,”saidArslanAshraf,managingdirector,

Nielsen.“Despitethefactthatrisingrentsaredrivinginflationnorth

andconsumersaremitigatingriskviasavings,theyarestillupbeat

aboutfuturejobprospects.”

“InSaudiArabia,consumerconfidenceissteadilyheadingtowarda

scoreof112,whichwaslastreachedin2012beforeadrivetolegalize

theexpatworkforce,”saidAshraf.“Theeconomyisgraduallyrecovering

fromthechallengesposedbythelegalizationdriveformostof2013

andthebeginningof2014.However,whileconfidenceisexpectedtobe

bullishinthecomingdays,decliningoilpricesmightposerisks.”

Regionally,quarter-on-quarterdiscretionaryspendingintentions

increased3percentagepointsinthethirdquarterforplanstosave

(39%)and1percentagepointeachforinvesting(10%)andspendingon

holidays/vacations(18%).Aslightpullbackof1percentagepointeach

wasreportedforspendingonout-of-homeentertainment(19%)andnew

technologyproducts(18%).Twenty-twopercentofMiddleEast/Africa

respondentssaidtheyhadnosparecash,adeclineof3percentage

pointsfromthesecondquarterandthehighestpercentageofany

region.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX INCREASES IN ALL MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA MARKETS


3

3

4

4

1

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

SAUDI ARABIA

PAKISTAN

EGYPT

SOUTH AFRICA

112

105

103

85

86

INDEXINDEX POINT CHANGE FROM Q2

INCREASE DECREASE NO CHANGE


CONFIDENCE RISES IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAConsumerconfidenceincreasedtwoindexpointsinNigeriainthe

thirdquartertoascoreof123—thehighestscoreofthethreecountries

measuredinNielsen’smobilesurveyforSub-SaharanAfrica.Confidence

declinedsixpointseachinKenya(105)andGhana(97)fromthesecond

quarter.

ThethreecountrieswereaddedtoNielsen’smeasurementof

consumerconfidenceinthefirstquarterof2014usingamobilesurvey

methodology,whichdiffersfromtheonlinemethodologyusedtoreport

consumerconfidenceandspendingintentionsfortheother60countries

outlinedinthisreport.Assuch,thethreesub-SaharanAfricanmarkets

arenotincludedintheglobalorMiddleEast/Africaaveragesdiscussed

throughoutthisreport.

Theperceivedoutlookforjobprospectsincreased5percentagepoints

inNigeria(58%),butdeclined4percentagepointsinKenya(50%)and

1percentagepointinGhana(42%).Seventy-sevenpercentofNigerian

respondentswereconfidentabouttheirpersonalfinances,butonly

justoverhalf(52%)believednowwasagoodtimetospend.InKenya,

63%ofrespondentsbelievedmoneymattersweregoodorexcellent,

and36%wereconfidentintheircurrentspendingcapacity—adecline

of6percentagepointsfromthesecondquarter.Likewise,68%of

respondentsinGhanawereoptimisticabouttheirfinances,and30%of

respondentswereconfidentaboutspending.

Themajorityofrespondentsinthethreecountries(69%inGhana,

64%inNigeriaand62%inKenya)didnothavesparecash,alevelthat

increasedineachcountryfromthesecondquarter.Amongthosewho

didhavediscretionaryfunds,savingwasapriorityfor84%inGhana,

83%inKenyaand83%inNigeria,followedbyspendingonhome

improvementprojects(77%inKenya,72%inNigeriaand69%

inGhana).

SPARE CASH SPENDING INTENTIONS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA


SPARE CASH SPENDING INTENTIONS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

SAVINGS

HOME IMPROVEMENTS/DECORATING

RETIREMENT FUND

NEW TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTS

NEW CLOTHES

OUT-OF-HOME ENTERTAINMENT

PAYING OFF DEBTS/CREDIT CARDS/LOANS

HOLIDAYS/VACATIONS

INVESTING IN SHARES OF STOCK/MUTUAL FUNDS

Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q32014 BasedonMobileSurveyMethodology

PERCENT PLANNING TO SPEND DISCRETIONARY INCOME ON THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES

GHANA

KENYA

NIGERIA

84 59

69

35 37 31 27 24 17

83

83

61

62

77

72

45

29

29

50

51

44

39

46

24

35

22

23


Source:InternetWorldStats,December31,2013

MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION

Australia 87%

China 46%

HongKong 75%

India 16%

Indonesia 22%

Japan 86%

Malaysia 67%

NewZealand 87%

Philippines 41%

Singapore 73%

South Korea 85%

Taiwan 80%

Thailand 30%

Vietnam 44%

MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION MARKET INTERNET

PENETRATION


Austria 81%

Belgium 82%

Bulgaria 53%

Croatia 71%

CzechRepublic 74%

Denmark 95%

Estonia 80%


Egypt 50%

Pakistan 15%

SaudiArabia 61%

SouthAfrica 49%

UnitedArabEmirates

88%


Canada 91%

UnitedStates 84%

MARKET MOBILE PENETRATION*

Ghana 99%

Kenya 68%

Nigeria 64%

COUNTRIES IN THE STUDY

ASIA-PACIFIC

EUROPE

MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

LATIN AMERICAEUROPE

Finland 92%

France 83%

Germany 86%

Greece 60%

Hungary 73%

Ireland 78%

Israel 71%

Italy 59%

Latvia 75%

Lithuania 69%

Netherlands 94%

Norway 95%

Poland 65%

Portugal 62%

Romania 50%

Russia 61%

Serbia 57%

Slovakia 79%

Slovenia 73%

Spain 75%

Sweden 95%

Switzerland 87%

Turkey 46%

UnitedKingdom 90%

Ukraine 42%

Argentina 75%

Brazil 54%

Chile 67%

Colombia 62%

Mexico 44%

Peru 39%

Venezuela 45%

*BasedonmobilehandsetsdividedbypopulationSource:CIAWorldFactbook,2012


ABOUT NIELSEN NielsenN.V.(NYSE:NLSN)isaglobalinformationandmeasurement

companywithleadingmarketpositionsinmarketingandconsumer

information,televisionandothermediameasurement,online

intelligenceandmobilemeasurement.Nielsenhasapresencein

approximately100countries,withheadquartersinNewYork,USA

andDiemen,theNetherlands.

Formoreinformation,visitwww.nielsen.com.

Copyright©2014TheNielsenCompany.Allrightsreserved.Nielsenand

theNielsenlogoaretrademarksorregisteredtrademarksofCZT/ACN

Trademarks,L.L.C.Otherproductandservicenamesaretrademarksor

registeredtrademarksoftheirrespectivecompanies.14/8221

ABOUT THE NIELSEN GLOBAL SURVEY TheNielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpending

IntentionswasconductedAug.13–Sept.5,2014andpolledmorethan

30,000onlineconsumersin60countriesthroughoutAsia-Pacific,

Europe,LatinAmerica,theMiddleEast/AfricaandNorthAmerica.

Thesamplehasquotasbasedonageandsexforeachcountrybased

onitsInternetusersandisweightedtoberepresentativeofInternet

consumers.Ithasamarginoferrorof±0.6%.ThisNielsensurveyis

basedonlyonthebehaviorofrespondentswithonlineaccess.Internet

penetrationratesvarybycountry.Nielsenusesaminimumreporting

standardof60%Internetpenetrationoranonlinepopulationof10

millionforsurveyinclusion.TheChinaConsumerConfidenceIndex

iscompiledfromaseparatemixedmethodologysurveyamong3,500

respondentsinChina.Thesub-SaharanAfricancountriesinthisstudy

arecompiledfromaseparatemobilemethodologysurveyamong1,600

respondentsinGhana,KenyaandNigeria.TheNielsenGlobalSurvey,

whichincludestheGlobalConsumerConfidenceIndex,wasestablished

in2005.

consumer confidence - nielsen...consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100...

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