consumer confidence - nielsen · q4-2014 nielsen consumer confidence index *survey is based on...

C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C ECONCERNS AND SPENDING INTENTIONS AROUND THE WORLDQUARTER 4, 2014

2014 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES | 4TH EDITION

2 QUARTER 4 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT2

• Globalconsumerconfidencedeclinedtwoindexpointsto96,aseveryregionregressedslightlyinthefourthquarterof2014

• NorthAmericaandAsia-Pacific—theonlyregionswithconfidencescoresabovethe100-baselinereading—eachdeclinedoneindexpoint

• ConfidenceinLatinAmericadeclinedmost,fallingthreeindexpoints;Europedeclinedtwopoints,andAfrica/MiddleEastdeclinedonepoint

• Theglobaljoboutlookfellthreepercentagepoints,whilepersonalfinanceperspectivesandimmediatespendingintentionsdeclinedonepercentagepointeach

• RecessionarysentimentfellsharplyinNorthAmerica,butroseinLatinAmericaandEurope

• ConfidencefelltwopointsintheU.S.,andChinaposteditsfirstdeclinein2014

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE:DOWN TWO POINTS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER 2014; UP TWO POINTS YEAR OVER YEAR

Globalconsumerconfidenceended2014withanindexscoreof96—a

declineoftwoindexpointsfromthepreviousquarter,whichcomesafter

severalquartersofpositivemomentum.Whileconfidencefellslightlyin

everyregioninthefourthquarterfromthepreviousquarter,theglobal

indexclosedtheyearuptwopointsfromlastyear(94inQ42013).The

index,whichhasbeenonaslowandsteadyriseforabouttwoyears,is

stillaboveapre-recessionlevelof94fromthird-quarter2007.

3Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company 3

ABOUT THE GLOBAL SURVEY METHODOLOGY

Thefindingsinthissurveyare

basedonrespondentswith

onlineaccessin60countries

(unlessotherwisenoted).While

anonlinesurveymethodology

allowsfortremendousscale

andglobalreach,itprovidesa

perspectiveonlyonthehabits

ofexistingInternetusers,not

totalpopulations.Indeveloping

marketswhereonlinepenetration

isstillgrowing,audiencesmay

beyoungerandmoreaffluent

thanthegeneralpopulationof

thatcountry.Inaddition,survey

responsesarebasedonclaimed

behaviorratherthanactual

metereddata.

ConsumerconfidencedeclinedonepointinNorthAmerica(106)and

Asia-Pacific(106)inthefourthquarter—theonlyregionstoscoreabove

thebaselinereadingof100.Confidencealsodecreasedonepointin

theMiddleEast/Africa(95),threepointsinLatinAmerica(88)andtwo

pointsinEurope(76)fromthepreviousquarter.

Amongtheworld’sbiggesteconomies,consumerconfidencedecreased

twopointsintheU.S.(106),fourpointsinChina(107)andfourpoints

inJapan(73).Conversely,confidenceroseonepointeachinGermany

(98)andintheU.K.(94).

“Confidenceinmorethanhalfoftheglobalmarketsmeasuredretreated

slightlyinthefourthquarterwithcontinuedgeopoliticaltensionsand

someslowinginemerging-marketgrowth,”saidLouiseKeely,senior

vicepresident,Nielsenandpresident,TheDemandInstitute.“Latin

Americanmarkets,suchasBrazil,sawparticularlylargedeclinesin

confidencecomparedtolastquarterandayearago,reflectiveofthe

economicslowdownthere.WhilerecoveryinEuropecontinuestobe

weak,andthereisrecentspeculationofquantitativeeasingbythe

EuropeanCentralBank,confidenceisstillupslightlyinmosteconomies

fromayearago,suggestingthatfearsofyetanothereurozonerecession

havenotyethitoverallconsumers’outlook.IntheU.S.,wherelabor

marketshavecontinuedtorecover,confidenceisupsignificantlyfrom

itslevelayearago.”

Inthelatestonlinesurvey,conductedNov.10-28,2014,consumer

confidenceincreasedin17of60marketsmeasuredbyNielsen(28%),

comparedwith39markets(65%)inthethirdquarter.India’sscore

of129,thehighestindexamong60markets,increasedthreepoints

fromthethirdquarter.Italyreportedthelowestscoreof45,aquarterly

declineoftwopoints.Ireland(90)showedthebiggestimprovement,

asconfidencethererosesixpercentagepoints.Malaysia(89)logged

thebiggestdecline,asconfidencetherefell10pointsfromtheprevious

quarter.

TheNielsenconsumerconfidenceindexmeasuresperceptionsoflocal

jobprospects,personalfinancesandimmediatespendingintentions.

Consumerconfidencelevelsaboveandbelowabaselineof100indicate

degreesofoptimismandpessimism,respectively.TheNielsenGlobal

SurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpendingIntentions,established

in2005,measuresconsumerconfidence,majorconcernsandspending

intentionsamongmorethan30,000respondentswithInternetaccessin

60countries.

4 QUARTER 4 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ4-2014 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

*SurveyisbasedonrespondentswithInternetaccess.Chinasurveyresultsreflectamixedmethodology.Indexlevelsaboveandbelow100indicatedegreesofoptimism/pessimism.

Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q42014

-5+5

+2-2

-40

-2

+4

-1

-1

-3

-1

-2

+4

-3

+1

-3

-6

-4

+1

-4

-3+6

+5+2

-10+2+1-7-3-4-5+4

-4+3

0-8

+4

-2

-5

-1

-4

-1

-2

0

-1

-2

-3

-2

-2

+2

-2

-3-5

+1

-5

85 ISRAEL

87 LITHU

ANIA

88 SO

UTH AFRICA

89 M

ALAYSIA 89 N

ETHERLANDS

90 EGYPT

SERBIA 52

90 IRELAND

UKRAINE 52

92 NORWAY

GREECE 53

HUNGARY 54

93 AUSTRALIA

PORTUGAL 55

94 UNITED KINGDOM

SLOVENIA

56

94 COLOMBIA

FRANCE 57

95 BRAZIL

FINLAND 61

97 SWITZERLAND

SPAIN 63

98 GERMANY

ARGENTINA 67

100 SINGAPORE

VENEZUELA 70 101 PERUSLOVAKIA 70 101 PAKISTAN

POLAND 72

101 NEW ZEALAND

JAPAN 73

102 SAUDI ARABIA

BULGARIA 75

102 CANADA

BELGIUM 76

103 DENMARK

TAIWAN 77

106 VIETNAM

ROMANIA 77

106 UNITED STATES

RUSSIA 79

107 HONG KONG

CZECH REPUBLIC 8

0

107 C

HINA

LATV

IA

81

111

THAILA

ND

CHILE

81

114

UNITED A

RAB EM

IRATE

S

TURK

EY

82

120

PHIL

IPPI

NES

ESTO

NIA

8

4

120

IN

DON

ESIA

SWED

EN

85

AUST

RIA

85

MEX

ICO

8

5

0

CROATIA

49

+3

129

IN

DIA

IND

EX

COU

NTR

Y

LESS

CONFIDENT

MORE CONFIDENT

-4

SOUTH

KOREA

48

-2

ITALY45

NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA EUROPE AFRICA, MIDDLE EAST ASIA-PACIFIC

96 ( -2 change from Q3-2014 )

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY – 60 Countries – 3-Month TrendQ4-2014 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index

Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism.

INDEXES ABOVE 100 INDICATE OPTIMISM

GLOBALAVERAGE

5Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company

60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ4-2014 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

5

YEAR-OVER-YEAR PERFORMANCE IS POSITIVEProgressisslow,butitisindeedtakingplaceinmorethanhalfofglobalmarketsmeasured.Confidencescoresin39of60marketsimprovedyearoveryear.Elevenmarketsreporteddouble-digitconfidenceclimbs,includingtheU.S.andtheU.K.,whichrose12and10points,respectively.OthernotableincreasesfromthepreviousyearincludeRomania(+15),India(+14),Egypt(+14)Ireland(+13)andBulgaria(+13).

Whileallglobalconsumerconfidenceindicatorsdeclinedinthefourthquarter—jobprospects(-3percentagepoints),personalfinances(-1pp)andimmediatespendingintentions(-1pp)—year-over-yearperformancewaspositive.Justunderhalfofglobalrespondents(49%)believedthejobmarketwouldbegoodorexcellentinthenext12months,upfrom47%infourth-quarter2013.Likewise,perceptionsofpersonalfinancesslightlyimprovedto56%(from55%thepreviousyear)andimmediatespendingintentionsroseto40%(from38%).

Year-over-yearkeyindicatorperformancemetricsimprovedmostdramaticallyinNorthAmerica.Jobprospectexpectationsrose12percentagepointsto50%,thestateofpersonalfinancesincreasedsixpercentagepointsto64%andimmediatespendingintentionsjumpedeightpercentagepointsto51%inthe12-monthperiod.SignificantimprovementswerealsoreportedintheMiddleEast/Africaregion:Jobprospectsincreasedfourpercentagepoints,personalfinancesrosesevenpointsandimmediatespendingintentionsjumpedeightpoints,comparedtofourth-quarter2013.

LatinAmericawastheonlyregiontoreportdecliningyear-over-yearperformanceforallthreemetrics.Jobprospectexpectationsdeclined12percentagepointsto31%,thestateofpersonalfinancesdroppedthreepercentagepointsto58%andimmediatespendingintentionsdeclinedtwopercentagepointsto35%,fromfourth-quarter2013.

“Therewasasmallstepbackinthefourthquarterreflectingsomeincreasedconsumerapprehension,followingimprovementsacrossthewholeof2014,”saidKeely.“Someregionsoftheworldarestillnotoutofthewoods,includingtheeurozone,whileothers—likeChinaandsomeLatinAmericancountries—maybeenteringaperiodofslowergrowthin2015.”



COUNTRIES WITH BIGGEST YEAR-ON-YEAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX INCREASES

CONFIDENCE INDICATORS IMPROVE MOST IN NORTH AMERICA

Q4 2014

ChangefromQ4 2013

ROMANIA 77 +15

EGYPT 90 +14

INDIA 129 +14

BULGARIA 75 +13

IRELAND 90 +13

NETHERLANDS 89 +12

UNITED STATES 106 +12

SLOVENIA 56 +12

PORTUGAL 55 +11

ESTONIA 84 +11

UNITED KINGDOM

94 +10

LATIN AMERICA

Change fromQ4 2013Q4 2014

ASIA-PACIFIC

64%62%

42%

+2N/C

+1

EUROPE28%

38%30%

MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA

43%60%

39%

31%

35%

NORTH AMERICA

50%

51%

PERCENT SAYING THE NEXT 12 MONTHS WILL BE GOOD/EXCELLENT

+3+1+2

+4+7+8

58%-12-3-2

64%

JOB PROSPECTS

PERSONAL FINANCES

IMMEDIATE SPENDING INTENTIONS

+12

+6

+8


RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT IMPROVED FOR MOST IN 2014Justoverhalfofglobalrespondents(53%)believedtheywereina

recessioninthefourthquarter,aone-percentagepointimprovementfrom

thepreviousquarterandafour-pointimprovementfromthepreviousyear

(Q42013).Regionally,arecessionarysentimentimprovedmostinNorth

America,declining10percentagepointsfromthepreviousquarterand15

percentagepointsfromthepreviousyearto53%.

Asia-Pacificrespondentsshowedthelowestrecessionarysentimentat

41%,aone-pointdeclinefromthepreviousquarterandathree-point

declinefromthepreviousyear.LatinAmericanrespondentsreportedthe

highestrecessionarysentimentat73%,anincreaseofthreepercentage

pointsfromthepreviousquarterandariseof12pointsfromtheprevious

year.Additionally,two-thirdsofEuropean(66%)andMiddleEast/Africa

(69%)respondentsstillbelievedtheywereinrecession.

Intotal,58%ofglobalmarketsmeasuredreportedayear-over-year

recessionary-sentimentimprovement.Irelandreportedthebiggest

21-percentagepointimprovementfrom87%infourth-quarter2013to

66%infourth-quarter2014.Othernotableyear-over-year,double-digit

improvementswereintheU.S.andtheU.K.(16pp),andIndiaimproved

by15percentagepoints.Conversely,arecessionarysentimentworsenedin

Brazilby22percentagepoints,from51%infourth-quarter2013to73%in

fourth-quarter2014andinChileby45percentagepoints.

China(22%),Norway(25%)andSingapore(27%)hadthelowest

recessionarysentiment,whilemorethan90%ofrespondentsinCroatia

(97%),Italy(96%),Ukraine(94%),Venezuela(92%)andSerbia(91%)

stillbelievedtheyweremiredinrecessioninthefourthquarter.

Globaldiscretionaryspending/savingintentionswereeitherflator

declinedslightlyinthefourthquarter.Almosthalf(48%)plantosavetheir

sparecash,aboutthree-in-10expecttospendonholiday/vacations(34%),

newclothes(34%)andout-of-homeentertainment(30%).One-fourthof

globalrespondentsplantobuynewtechnology(24%)andpayoffdebts

(25%).One-fifthexpecttospendonhomeimprovements(21%)and

investinstocks(21%),andone-in-10plantosaveforretirement(10%).

Globally,13%ofrespondentssaytheyhavenosparecash.


RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT IMPROVES FOR MANY

BIGGEST YEAR-ON-YEAR RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT IMPROVEMENTS

PERCENT BELIEVING THEY ARE IN RECESSION AND CHANGE FROM LAST YEAR

IRELAND

VIETNAM

CZECH REPUBLIC

UNITED STATES

UNITED KINGDOM

LATVIA

NETHERLANDS

SLOVAKIA

POLAND

NEW ZEALAND

ROMANIA

66% -21

-19

-18

-16

-16

-15

-15

-14

-13

-13

-12

-11


NORTH AMERICA

MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA

EUROPE

ASIA-PACIFIC

LATIN AMERICA

53%

69%

66%

41%

73%

NORTH AMERICA IMPROVED MOST, LATIN AMERICA WORSENED

-15

-6

-4

-3

+12

Change fromQ4 2013Q4 2014

58%

50%

55%

55%

55%

47%

48%

67%

65%

34%

64%

INDIA


BIGGEST YEAR-ON-YEAR RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT IMPROVEMENTS

PERCENT BELIEVING THEY ARE IN RECESSION AND CHANGE FROM LAST YEAR

NORTH AMERICAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IS STILL STRONG U.S.consumerconfidencedecreasedtwoindexpointsinthefourth

quartertoascoreof106—thefirstdeclinein2014,buta12-point

improvementfromthepreviousyear.Confidencealsodeclinedin

Canada,fallingonepointtoanindexlevelof102fromtheprevious

quarter.

WhileallU.S.consumerconfidenceindicatorsdecreasedslightlyinthe

fourthquarter,thereweresignificantyear-over-yearimprovements:Job

prospectconfidenceincreased13percentagepointsto50%,personal

financeconfidenceincreasedsixpercentagepointsto64%andthe

percentageofrespondentswhobelievenowisagoodtimetospend

increasedninepercentagepointsto52%,fromfourth-quarter2013.

“DespitethemostrecentdeclinesintheU.S.forjobprospectsand

personalfinances,consumersappeartobemoreupbeatthanother

regionsgoinginto2015,”saidKeely.“Decliningunemployment,falling

oilpricesandthecontinuedlowinterestratestogetherplaceconsumers

intheworld’slargesteconomyinabetterpositiontospendthanin

recentyears.”

Intheregion,quarter-on-quarterdiscretionaryspendingintentions

decreasedfivepercentagepointsforbuyingnewclothes(27%)andfour

percentagepointsforspendingonout-of-homeentertainment(18%).

Thoseplanningtosaveforretirementalsodeclinedsixpercentage

pointsto13%.Four-in-10respondents(40%)plantoputmoneyinto

savingsaccounts,downfrom42%thepreviousquarter.



U.S. REPORTS STRONG YEAR-ON-YEAR IMPROVEMENTS FORALL CONFIDENCE INDICATORS

JOB PROSPECTS

PERSONAL FINANCES

IMMEDIATE SPENDING INTENTIONS

+13

+6

+9

+3

+4

N/C

54%

52% 43%

Q4 2014 Q4 2014CHANGE

FROM Q4 2013

CHANGE FROM

Q4 2013

CANADAUNITED STATES


50%

64% 62%



U.S. REPORTS STRONG YEAR-ON-YEAR IMPROVEMENTS FORALL CONFIDENCE INDICATORS

PROGRESS IN EUROPE REMAINS SLOW Cloudsofpessimismreturnedtotheeurozoneinthefourthquarter,

withconfidencedecliningin20of32markets.OnlyDenmark,with

aconsumerconfidencescoreof103,hadanoptimisticreading,and

GermanyandSwitzerlandweretheonlytwocountrieswherehalfof

respondents(49%and56%,respectively)wereoptimisticaboutjob

prospectsinthenext12months.

ConfidenceinGermany,thebiggesteconomyintheregion,increased

oneindexpointtoascoreof98—acontinuationofsmallupticksthat

haveoccurredoverthepastseveralquarterstoanear-baselinescore,

whichstandsinstarkcontrasttotheregion’saverageindexscoreof76.

“Lookingbackoverthelast12months,thestableGermanlabormarket

likelyhadabiginfluenceonthecountry’sconsumerconfidencescore,”

saidIngoSchier,managingdirector,NielsenGermany.“Acombination

offactorsinGermanyboostedconfidenceinEurope’slargesteconomy

in2014.Asteadilydecliningunemploymentratecombinedwithlow

interestratesandrisingincomesliftedconsumersentimentand

willingnesstospend.Inthelongrun,whilethegeopoliticalcrisesin

theUkraineorSyriaaretopofmind,theyarenotyetaffectingGerman

consumerconfidence.”

Thebiggestregionalindexincreasecomparedtothethirdquartercame

fromIreland(+6to90).Conversely,Russia’sindexdeclinedeightpoints

toascoreof79afterthreeconsecutivequartersofincreases.Italy(45)

andFrance(57)alsodeclined,droppingtwopointseach,comparedto

thethirdquarter.

“InIreland,2014hasbeenayearofrecovery,”saidMattClark,

commercialdirector,NielsenIreland.“InNovember,unemployment

figuresfellforthe36thconsecutivemonthandlatestannualized

GDPgrowthisahealthy3.5%,whichisout-performingtherestofthe

eurozone.Whilefast-movingconsumergoodssalesarestillsluggish,

thesepositiveindicatorstogetherwithanOctoberbudgetthatputa

littlemoremoneyinpeople’spocketshasliftedconfidenceandeaseda

strongcultureofsaving.”


CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX DECREASES IN 63% OF EUROPEAN MARKETS IN Q4

Denmark

Germany

Switzerland

UnitedKingdom

Norway

Ireland

Netherlands

Lithuania

Israel

Austria

Sweden

Estonia

Turkey

Latvia

CzechRepublic

Russia

Romania

Belgium

Bulgaria

Poland

Slovakia

Spain

Finland

France

Slovenia

Portugal

Hungary

Greece

Ukraine

Serbia

Croatia

Italy

INDEXQ4 2014

CHANGE FROMQ3 2014

INCREASE

DECREASENO CHANGE

-1

+1

-3

+1

-3

+6

+2

+1

-7

-4

-5

+4

-5

+3

0

-8

+4

-5

-1

-1

-2

-2

-3

-2

-2

+2

-2

-3

-5

+1

0

-2

103 |

98 |

97 |

94 |

92 |

90 |

89 |

87 |

85 |

85 |

85 |

84 |

82 |

81 |

80 |

79 |

77 |

76 |

75 |

72 |

70 |

63 |

61 |

57 |

56 |

55 |

54 |

53 |

52 |

52 |

49 |

45 |


“InRussia,theeconomicandpoliticaltensionshadafairlylimited

impactpriortoNovemberandDecember,butthesituationdramatically

changedwiththenationalcurrencyconsiderablylosingitsvalueand

inflationreachingnewheights,”saidKyriakosKyriakou,managing

director,NielsenEasternEurope.“Purchasingpoweranddisposable

incomeofRussianconsumerswillcontinuetoshrink,andweexpectthe

situationtoworseninthefirsthalfof2015whenpricesforconsumer

goodswillgrowreflectingtherubledevaluation.Priceasapurchase

motivatorwillbecomestrongerasconsumersswitchtocheaperbrands

andcutdownonnon-essentials.”


CONFIDENCE IN ASIA-PACIFIC IS STILL HIGH DESPITE RECENT DECLINESConsumerconfidenceinAsia-Pacificincreasedinonlythreeof14marketsmeasuredinthefourthquarter,butnineof14countriesremainatorabovethe100-optimismbaseline.ConfidenceinIndia(129)increasedthreepoints,postingthehighestindexintheregionandofthe60countriesmeasured.China’sindexfellfourpointsto107inthefourthquarter,whichcomesafterfourconsecutivequartersat111.

“Despitethefour-pointdecline,Chineseconsumersremainoptimisticabouttheirjobprospects,personalfinancesandtheirdesiretospendinthecomingyearrelativetotheirglobalpeers,”saidYanXuan,president,NielsenChina.“ThankstotheconcentrationofanumberofshoppingholidaysinthefourthquartersuchasSingles’Day,ChristmasandNewYear,consumerpurchaseintentionsforbothonlineandofflineregisteredstrongreadings,especiallyinhighertiercities,provingagainthatonlineshoppingfestivalscreatednewvitalityintheretailmarket,notonlyforonlinemerchants,butforofflinechannelsaswell,”YanXuanadded.

Malaysiareportedthemostdramaticconsumerconfidencedeclineintheregion,falling10pointsto89—thelowestscoresince2009.ConfidencealsodeclinedfivepointsinIndonesia(120)andfourpointseachinAustralia(93),Japan(73)andSouthKorea(48).

“InIndia,2014endedwiththeencouragingnoteofincreasedconsumerconfidencelevelsacrossallkeyindicators,”saidPiyushMathur,president,NielsenIndiaRegion.“Thetrendsinthefinancesectoralsoreflectthisuptickinconfidence,withcreditcardpenetrationrising,homeloandisbursementhigherthaninthethirdquarter,andimprovedautosales.Theoverallfast-movingconsumergoodsindustryislookingtogrowbydoubledigitsin2015basedonlowerinflationratesandincreasedconsumersentiment.Consumersarealsohopefulforanimprovedeconomicenvironmentwithpoliciesandreformsbeingsetinplacebythenewgovernment.”

“InMalaysia,thedeclineinconfidencewasexpected,buttheseveritywasmorethananticipated,”saidRichardHall,countrymanager,NielsenMalaysia.“ItappearsthatconsumersareturningtheirattentiontothegoodsandservicetaxintroductiondueforimplementationinApril2015anditspotentialimpactonpricesandcostofliving.Thisiscontributingtouncertaintyinamarketwhereconsumergoodsalesareflatandsomeretailersarestatingnegativelike-for-likegrowthsinstores.”

India

Indonesia

Philippines

Thailand

China

HongKong

Vietnam

NewZealand

Singapore

Australia

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

129

120

120

111

107

107

106

101

100

93

89

77

73

48

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX DECREASES IN 71% OF ASIA-PACIFIC MARKETS IN Q4


INCREASE

DECREASENO CHANGE

INCREASE

DECREASENO CHANGE

INCREASE

DECREASENO CHANGE

3

-5

5

-2

-4

0

4

-1

-3

-4

-10

-2

-4

-4

INDEXQ4 2014

CHANGE FROMQ3 2014


LATIN AMERICAN CONFIDENCE CONTINUES A DOWNWARD TRENDConfidenceintheLatinAmericaregiondecreasedthreeindexpoints

toascoreof88inthefourthquarter,asscoresfellinfiveoftheseven

countriesmeasured.Peruwastheonlycountryintheregionwithan

improvedscore,risingfourpointsto101—thehighestscoreintheregion

andoutperformingBrazil(95)forthefirsttimesince2011.Confidencein

Brazildroppedsixpointsquarterly—thebiggestdeclineandlowestscore

forthecountrysince2011.Mexico(85)decreasedthreepoints,Colombia

(94)andChile(81)decreasedfourpointseachandArgentina(67)dropped

onepointinthefourthquarter.Venezuela’s(70)scorewasflatfromthe

previousquarter.

TheoutlookforjobprospectsdeclinedinthreeofsevenLatinAmerican

countriesandperceptionsofpersonalfinancesfellineverycountryexcept

Peru.Arecessionarysentimentworsenedbysevenpercentagepointsin

bothBrazil(73%)andChile(59%)—thehighestlevelssincethestartof

trackingthissentimentin2008.

“Brazil’sconfidencescoreisareflectionofhighlevelsofuncertainty

abouttheeconomicenvironment,”saidLuisArjona,clusterleader,

NielsenBrazil.“Inadditiontotheexpectedlowgrowthlevelsin2015,

inflationhasremainedabovetheofficialtargets,andtherearegrowing

concernsaboutincreasingunemploymentrates.Ontheotherhand,a

newly-appointedeconomicteamhasrecentlytakenmeasurestorestore

confidencebyincreasinginterestratestosubdueinflationandpromising

torestoregreaterfiscaldiscipline.ReportsofcorruptionatPetrobras,the

largestBraziliancompany,andthesteepdropinoilprices,havelikely

furthercontributedtomarketuncertaintyandoverallconsumersentiment.

Relativelylowconsumerconfidencescoresshouldremaininthenear

futureuntiltheregionembarksonaclearpathtoeconomicrecovery.”

Discretionaryspendingintentionsshowedthemostdramaticpullbackof

alltheregions,withdecreasesoffivepercentagepointsfornewclothes

(24%)andhomeimprovements(15%),fourpointsfornewtechnology

(16%),threepointsforsaving(28%)andtwopointsforout-of-home

entertainment(30%).Almostone-in-fiverespondents(18%)saidtheyhave

nosparecash,aquarterlyincreaseoftwopercentagepoints.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX DECREASES IN 71% OF LATIN-AMERICAN MARKETS IN Q4


PERU

ARGENTINA

VENEZUELA

101

70

67

4

0

-1

COLOMBIA

94-4

CHILE

81-4

BRAZIL

95-6

MEXICO

85-3

INDEXQ4 2014

CHANGE FROM Q3 2014

INCREASE DECREASE NO CHANGE


INDEXQ4 2014

CHANGE FROM Q3 2014

THE MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA REGION SHOWS SLOW BUT STABLE PROGRESSConsumerconfidenceincreasedinthreeoffivecountriesmeasured

intheMiddleEast/Africaregioninthefourthquarter.At114,United

ArabEmirateshadthehighestindexintheregion,anincreaseoftwo

pointsfromthethirdquarter.Confidencealsoincreasedfivepointsin

Egyptto90andtwopointsinSouthAfricato88.Conversely,confidence

decreasedthreepointsinSaudiArabiato102andtwopointsinPakistan

to101.

“Egypt’sconsumerconfidencescorehasbeenclimbingforthelasttwo

quarters,andweseeadirectcorrelationtothecountry’seconomic

growthduringthatsameperiod,”saidTamerElAraby,managingdirector

forEgypt,LevantandNorthAfrica.“AsEgyptapproachestheconfidence

baselinescoreof100,thenextchallengewillbetoimprovehowpeople

perceivetheirpersonalfinances.Thiscouldleadtoapointwhen

Egyptianconsumersnolongerfocusonimmediatelivingrequirements,

butratherlookforwardtopotentialfuturegrowth.”

Regionally,quarter-on-quarterdiscretionaryspendingintentionsinthe

fourthquarterincreasedfourpercentagepointseachfornewclothes

(27%)andout-of-homeentertainment(23%),twopercentagepoints

eachforpayingoffdebts(20%)andhomeimprovements(17%)and

onepercentagepointforretirement(6%).Twenty-twopercentofMiddle

East/Africarespondentssaidtheyhavenosparecash,whichwasflat

fromthepreviousquarterandthehighestpercentageofanyregion.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN UAE REMAINS STRONG IN Q4


2

-3

-2

2

5

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

SAUDI ARABIA

PAKISTAN

SOUTH AFRICA

EGYPT

114

102

101

88

90

INCREASE DECREASE NO CHANGE


CONFIDENCE RISES IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAConsumerconfidenceincreasedfourindexpointsinNigeriainthe

fourthquartertoascoreof127—thehighestscoreofthethreecountries

measuredinNielsen’smobilesurveyforsub-SaharanAfrica.Confidence

alsoincreasedeightpointsinKenya(113)andfivepointsinGhana(102)

fromthethirdquarter.

ThethreecountrieswereaddedtoNielsen’smeasurementof

consumerconfidenceinthefirstquarterof2014usingamobilesurvey

methodology,whichdiffersfromtheonlinemethodologyusedtoreport

consumerconfidenceandspendingintentionsfortheother60countries

outlinedinthisreport.Assuch,thethreesub-SaharanAfricanmarkets

arenotincludedintheglobalorMiddleEast/Africaaveragesdiscussed

throughoutthisreport.

Theperceivedoutlookforjobprospectsincreased12percentagepoints

inKenya(62%),sixpercentagepointsinNigeria(64%)andremained

flatinGhana(42%).Eighty-twopercentofNigerianrespondents

wereconfidentabouttheirpersonalfinances,butjustoverhalf(56%)

believednowwasagoodtimetospend.InKenya,69%ofrespondents

believedmoneymattersweregoodorexcellent,and41%wereconfident

intheircurrentspendingcapacity—anincreaseoffivepercentagepoints

fromthethirdquarter.Likewise,66%ofrespondentsinGhanawere

optimisticabouttheirfinances,and36%wereconfidentaboutspending.

Themajorityofrespondentsinthethreecountries(70%inGhana,

61%inNigeriaand59%inKenya)didnothavesparecash,alevelthat

decreasedinKenyaandNigeriafromthethirdquarter.Amongthose

whodidhavediscretionaryfunds,savingwasapriorityfor89%in

Kenya,86%inNigeria,and85%inGhana,followedbyspendingon

homeimprovementprojects(73%inKenya,73%inNigeriaand71%

inGhana).

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA IN 2014


CONSUMER CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA IN 2014

Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014

Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q42014Sub-SaharanAfricacountriesuseamobilemethodolgy

GHANA

KENYA

NIGERIA

97

110

120

103

111

121

97

105

123

102

113

127


Source:InternetWorldStats,December31,2013

MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION

Australia 87%

China 46%

HongKong 75%

India 16%

Indonesia 22%

Japan 86%

Malaysia 67%

NewZealand 87%

Philippines 41%

Singapore 73%

South Korea 85%

Taiwan 80%

Thailand 30%

Vietnam 44%

MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION MARKET INTERNET

PENETRATION


Austria 81%

Belgium 82%

Bulgaria 53%

Croatia 71%

CzechRepublic 74%

Denmark 95%

Estonia 80%


Egypt 50%

Pakistan 15%

SaudiArabia 61%

SouthAfrica 49%

UnitedArabEmirates

88%


Canada 91%

UnitedStates 84%

MARKET MOBILE PENETRATION*

Ghana 99%

Kenya 68%

Nigeria 64%

COUNTRIES IN THE STUDY

ASIA-PACIFIC

EUROPE

MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

LATIN AMERICAEUROPE

Finland 92%

France 83%

Germany 86%

Greece 60%

Hungary 73%

Ireland 78%

Israel 71%

Italy 59%

Latvia 75%

Lithuania 69%

Netherlands 94%

Norway 95%

Poland 65%

Portugal 62%

Romania 50%

Russia 61%

Serbia 57%

Slovakia 79%

Slovenia 73%

Spain 75%

Sweden 95%

Switzerland 87%

Turkey 46%

UnitedKingdom 90%

Ukraine 42%

Argentina 75%

Brazil 54%

Chile 67%

Colombia 62%

Mexico 44%

Peru 39%

Venezuela 45%

*BasedonmobilehandsetsdividedbypopulationSource:CIAWorldFactbook,2012


ABOUT NIELSEN NielsenN.V.(NYSE:NLSN)isaglobalinformationandmeasurement

companywithleadingmarketpositionsinmarketingandconsumer

information,televisionandothermediameasurement,online

intelligenceandmobilemeasurement.Nielsenhasapresencein

approximately100countries,withheadquartersinNewYork,USA

andDiemen,theNetherlands.

Formoreinformation,visitwww.nielsen.com.

Copyright©2015TheNielsenCompany.Allrightsreserved.Nielsenand

theNielsenlogoaretrademarksorregisteredtrademarksofCZT/ACN

Trademarks,L.L.C.Otherproductandservicenamesaretrademarksor

registeredtrademarksoftheirrespectivecompanies.15/8379

ABOUT THE NIELSEN GLOBAL SURVEY TheNielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpending

IntentionswasconductedNov.10-28,2014andpolledmorethan

30,000onlineconsumersin60countriesthroughoutAsia-Pacific,

Europe,LatinAmerica,theMiddleEast/AfricaandNorthAmerica.

Thesamplehasquotasbasedonageandsexforeachcountrybased

onitsInternetusersandisweightedtoberepresentativeofInternet

consumers.Ithasamarginoferrorof±0.6%.ThisNielsensurveyis

basedonlyonthebehaviorofrespondentswithonlineaccess.Internet

penetrationratesvarybycountry.Nielsenusesaminimumreporting

standardof60%Internetpenetrationoranonlinepopulationof10

millionforsurveyinclusion.TheChinaConsumerConfidenceIndex

iscompiledfromaseparatemixedmethodologysurveyamong3,500

respondentsinChina.Thesub-SaharanAfricancountriesinthisstudy

arecompiledfromaseparatemobilemethodologysurveyamong1,600

respondentsinGhana,KenyaandNigeria.TheNielsenGlobalSurvey,

whichincludestheGlobalConsumerConfidenceIndex,wasestablished

in2005.

consumer confidence - nielsen · q4-2014 nielsen consumer confidence index *survey is based on...

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