climate shock - global risk institute · it’s not over ‘til the fat tail zings rapidly...
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SUMMIT 2017GLOBAL RISK INSTITUTE
PRESENTATION BY:
Gernot WagnerCo-Director, Harvard’s Solar Geoengineering Research Program and Research Associate, Harvard University
Climate Shock
Gernot [email protected]
Pricing climate risk
$40
>>$40
1.5 – 4.5°C
* Charney et al (1979)
1.5 – 4.5°C
* IPCC (1990)
1.5 – 4.5°C
* IPCC (1990, 1992)
1.5 – 4.5°C
* IPCC (1990, 1992, 1995)
1.5 – 4.5°C
* IPCC (1990, 1992, 1995, 2001)
1.5 – 4.5°C
* IPCC (2007)
2.0 – 4.5°C
* IPCC (2013)
1.5 – 4.5°C
Source: Meinshausen et al (2009)
Source: Meinshausen et al (2009)
IPCC’s “likely” range 1.5-4.5°C ‘Heavy-tailed’ climate sensitivity calibration using log-normal, mirroring effects of Roe-Baker
Source: Wagner & Weitzman’s Climate Shock (2015)
Equal mass below and above “likely” range likely conservative assumption
Final temperatures resulting in large probability of ‘tail event’IEA’s “New Policies Scenario” reaches 700 ppm by 2100
Source: Wagner & Weitzman’s Climate Shock (2015)
>10% probability of final temperatures exceeding 6°C
It’s not over ‘til the fat tail zingsRapidly increasing probability of extreme final temperatures
Source: Wagner & Weitzman’s Climate Shock (2015)
CO2e (ppm) 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800
Median Δ°C 1.3°C 1.8°C 2.2°C 2.5°C 2.7°C 3.2°C 3.4°C 3.7°C 3.9°C
Prob >6°C 0.04% 0.3% 1.2% 3% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17%
Analysis beyond standard benefit-cost analysis (and, thus, Social Cost)?
By 2100, per IEA’s
“New Policies Scenario”
10x10x
10x<1.5x
>>$40
Gernot [email protected]
CO2
CO2
SO2
CO2
SO2
CO2
SO2
Complement, not substitute
Complement, not substitute
Complement, not substitute
Gernot [email protected]