ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategiesin Egypt’s agricultural sector

Bruce A. McCarl & Mark Musumba & Joel B. Smith &

Paul Kirshen & Russell Jones & Akram El-Ganzori &Mohamed A. Ali & Mossad Kotb & Ibrahim El-Shinnawy &

Mona El-Agizy & Mohamed Bayoumi & Riina Hynninen

Received: 21 May 2013 /Accepted: 16 October 2013# Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Abstract Egyptian agriculture is vulnerable to potential climate change due to itsdependence on irrigated crops, a climate that is too dry to support crops, and increasingwater demands. This study analyzes the agricultural implications of climate change andpopulation growth plus possible adaptations strategies. A partial equilibrium model thatsimulates crop and livestock production along with water flows and non-agricultural water

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob ChangeDOI 10.1007/s11027-013-9520-9

Bruce A. McCarl and Mark Musumba - Seniority of authorship is shared by these first 2 authors

B. A. McCarlDepartment of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, 2124 TAMU, College Station, TX77843, USA

M. Musumba (*)Agriculture and Food Security Center, The Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10964,USAe-mail: musumba_m@yahoo.com

J. B. Smith : R. JonesStratus Consulting Inc., 1881 Ninth Street, Suite 201, Boulder, CO 80302, USA

P. KirshenUniversity of New Hampshire, 83 Main Street, Durham, NH 03824, USA

A. El-GanzoriNational Water Research Center, Cairo, Egypt

M. A. Ali :M. KotbAgro-Climate Laboratory, Ministry of Agriculture, Cairo, Egypt

I. El-ShinnawyCoastal Research Institute, Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, Cairo, Egypt

M. El-AgizyClimate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt and UNDP, Cairo, Egypt

M. Bayoumi : R. HynninenUnited Nations Development Programme, Cairo, Egypt

use is used to analyze the impact of climate change. The study examines the implications ofclimate change effects on crop yields, livestock performance, non-agricultural water use,water supply, irrigation water use, sea level rise and a growing population. Results indicatethat climate change damages the Egyptian agricultural sector and the damages increase overtime (2030–2060). Prices for agricultural commodities increase and this has a negative effecton consumers but a positive effect on producers. Egypt may reduce these damages byadapting through lower demand growth, raised agricultural technological progress, sea riseprotection and water conservation strategies.

Keywords Climate change .Water use . Population growth . Adaptation

1 Introduction

Egypt is the third most populous country in Africa after Nigeria and Ethiopia with a 2011estimated population of 82 million (CIA 2011). Egypt is semi-arid with little or novegetation with summer temperatures ranging from 26–30 °C to 12–20 °C in the winter.Egypt’s population inhabits 5.5 % of the total land area with 95 % of the population livingeither in the Delta region or along the narrow Nile River valley (Darwish et al. 2013). Thecountry is highly dependent on Nile water with 95 % of the total water budget coming fromthe Nile. The remaining 5 % comes from groundwater and rainfall. Egypt’s annual share ofNile water has been fixed at 55.5 billion cubic meters (BCM) as part of a 1959 agreementwith Sudan (Abdel-Gawad 2008). That water served the needs of 28 million people in 1960,double that in 1980, and 82 million in 2011 (Khouzam 2002; CIA 2011). Egypt is projectedto have a population of 104–117 million in 2030 and 113–162 in 2060 (EEAA 2010). Thisincreasing population implies an increase in urban water and food demand. Even thoughEgypt has raised its productivity/yield per acre, reclamation of desert land has increaseddemand for irrigation water (Khouzam 2002). There is significant future concern about theallocation of water resources to meet demands. These demands may be exacerbated byclimate change.

Climate change is recognized as a risk factor. Egypt’s Second National Communication tothe UNFCCC states, “Egypt is one of the most vulnerable countries to the potential impactsand risks of climate change” (EEAA 2010, p.69). The vast majority of Egypt’s crops areirrigated from Nile water creating great vulnerability to reductions in Nile flow. Climatechange also increases crop evapotranspiration needs and can reduce yields creatingvulnerability. Furthermore producing lands in the Nile Delta face the threat of inundationfrom sea level rise (IPCC 2007; Loutfy 2010). This might significantly reduce theagricultural production of Egypt since it is estimated that about 30–40 % of Egypt’sAgricultural production is from the low lying areas of the Delta and coast that are susceptibleto sea level rise (Darwish et al. 2013).

This study analyzes the agricultural implications of climate change and populationgrowth. This is done for the years 2030 and 2060. The climate change effectsexamined are alterations in Nile water inflows, irrigation water requirements, cropyields, land loss to sea level rise, livestock performance, and increases in municipaland industrial water use. The study also investigate possible adaptation strategiesincluding: increased rates of agricultural technological progress; coastal protectionagainst sea level rise and efficiency increases in irrigation conveyance, fieldapplication, and public water supply distribution. The effects of reduced populationgrowth are also examined.

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

2 Background

Annually Egypt currently utilizes 77 billion cubic meters (BCM) of water with 62 BCM of thatused for the agricultural sector, 8 BCM for municipal use, and 7.5 BCM for industrial use(EEAA 2010). This is supplied by 55BCMofNile water plus about 1 BCM of deep aquifer and1.2 BCM of rain water coupled with reuse of agricultural return flows and waste water flows(EEAA 2010). Of the total land area in Egypt, 4 % is arable or about 3.3 million hectares withabout one quarter of that reclaimed from the desert (El-Ramady et al. 2013). The fertility of thesoils also varies with the Delta region benefiting from the silt deposits from the Nile River andthe El Fayoum region South of Cairo endowed with alluvial-lacustrine soils (Darwish et al.2013). Agricultural production is dependent on Nile River water.

Climate change projections indicate that the Nile water flows are likely to decrease(Beyene et al. 2010). Agriculture is also at risk of climate change with projections for theAfrican continent showing major concerns for farmers with some gaining and some losing(Müller et al. 2011). Kurukulasuriya et al. (2006) indicates that relative to the rest of AfricaEgypt is expected to incur costs of climate change due to its dependence on irrigatedagriculture. In addition, they indicate that the losses would be observed mainly in thelivestock industry and in irrigated agriculture if water supply reduces.

Many studies have examined Egyptian climate change impacts (Onyeji and Fischer 1994;Conway and Hulme 1996; Strzepek et al. 1995; Yates and Strzepek 1998). Climate change isprojected to increase Egyptian temperatures by 3 to 4° Fahrenheit by 2030 and 8 to 11° by2090 (IPCC 2007). This would increase per hectare water demand (Loutfy 2010). Beyeneet al. (2010) projects that climate change would alter Nile water flows with increases for theperiods 2010–2039 and decreases for 2040–2069. Kim and Kaluarachchi (2009) also projecta reduction in the Nile flow by 2060. Strzepek and Yates (2000) project a declining Nilewater supply, and decreased agricultural production but with an increase in imports.

Some studies have examined agricultural adaptation strategies to climate change (Eidet al. 2007; Attaher et al. 2009). Eid et al. (2007) indicates that famers should use cropvarieties with high water use efficiency, adjust crop sowing dates and use earlier maturingvarieties. Attaher et al. (2009) indicate that their Nile Delta community based multi-criteriaadaptation assessment shows farmers are willing to act positively to adapt to climate changeprovided there is clear and available scientific information. In particular, they found thatfarmers believed changing cultivars was the most important adaptation measure followed byincreasing irrigation requirements and changing sowing dates.

Egypt has a large population to land ratio and might reclaim additional lands. Adriansen(2009) explored land reclamation in Egypt and life in the new lands using the data from theMubarak project initiated in 1987. The study found that although land reclamation providesnew opportunities for graduates and horizontal expansion, it may not be ecologically andeconomically sustainable given the resource availability. A couple of studies have alsoexamined sea level rise implications on the Egyptian economy (Loutfy 2010; Iglesias et al.2007; Hinkel et al. 2012; Dasgupta et al. 2009). Studies have shown that seal level rise willcause sea water intrusion in the Nile delta inundating producing lands and lowering supplies offresh water from costal groundwater aquifers (Loutfy 2010; Iglesias et al. 2007). Estimates ofdamages to the Egyptian economy due to sea level rise without protective measures have beenestimated at about 0.06 % of GDP for a 64 centimeter (cm) rise in sea level and 0.18 % of GDPfor 128 cm rise in sea level in 2100 (Hinkel et al. 2012) but other studies have estimates as highas 6.4 % of GDP for 100 cm rise in sea level (Dasgupta et al. 2009).

Climate change, population, economic growth, and induced increases in the demand for waterby upstream countries can also affect the amount of Nile water available to Egypt. There have

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

been countries that have tried to reopen negotiations to change the 55.5 BCM allocation of NileWater to Egypt (Nigatu and Dinar 2011). A potential for water conflict exists in the Nile RiverBasin because downstream riparian countries are highly dependent on the river compared toupstream riparian countries. Wu and Whittington (2006) concluded that the value of cooperationwill be highest if all countries came together under the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI). Strzepek et al.(2008) estimated the economic impact (value) of the HAD on the Egyptian economy. They used acomparison between the 1997 economy without the HAD and the actual situation with the dam.The dam’s ability to control the uncertainty in the flow of the Nile River showed a total gain of7.1–10.3 billion Egyptian Pounds (LE) which equated to 2.7 % to 4.7 % of annual GDP.

3 Modeling framework

In this study, we examine how Egypt’s agricultural sector and water allocation responds topotential alterations in Nile water inflows, irrigation water requirements, crop yields, landloss to sea level rise, livestock performance, agricultural technological progress, coastalprotection against sea level rise and efficiency increases in irrigation conveyance, fieldapplication, and public water supply distribution plus reduced population growth.

Climate change implications are studied using partial equilibrium modeling approach. Todo this, the study used a combined agricultural and water use model. Specifically anexpanded version of the Agricultural Sector Model of Egypt (ASME) was used. ASMEwas developed by Kutcher (1990), then updated and expanded by a number of groupsincluding McCarl et al. (1989), Hazell et al. (1995), Kieth et al. (1999), Yates and Strzepek(1998); Mohamed (2001); and most recently the Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MWRI2013). For this study, the ASME was updated to include the most recent Egyptianagricultural data, a water flow model, and municipal and industrial water use.

ASME is a static partial equilibrium model that maximizes consumers’ plus producers’surplus from agricultural commodity and water consumption subject to constraints on land,labor, water, canal water flow, commodity balance, policy and livestock feed. It is based onthe modeling approach discussed in Takayama and Judge (1971) and McCarl and Spreen(1980). It covers agricultural cropping and livestock activity along with hydrologicalmodeling of canal water flow, agricultural diversion, conveyance losses, return flows, non-agricultural water demand, water reuse, and ground water pumping.

ASME represents land availability and production in 12Egyptian regions; Upper Egypt,MiddleEgypt, West Delta, North Middle Delta, South East Delta, North East Delta, Fayoum, ToshkaValley, Sinai, Sandy Soil ground water using regions, Sandy Soil Canal using regions, and CalcarCanal using regions. An upper limit is set on the land available in each region. Potential reclamationis also included for lands in the Sinai, Toshka Valley, Sandy soil canal land regions. Laboravailability was based on surveys and observations by the Ministry of Agriculture and is assumedat 1.5 people per farm household with family labor in the Upper, Middle and Delta regions with 30working days a month while in the new regions, 2 people are assumed to be in each household.

Egyptian water sources and use are illustrated in Fig. 1. As stated earlier, the main watersource is the Nile River inflows from upstream countries into the High Aswan Dam (HAD)with an annual allocation of 55.5 BCM. There is also ground and rainfall water supply.Additional water supply arises from water reuse in the form of return flow water fromagriculture and treated municipal and industrial (M&I) waste water. All of these processesare depicted in ASME including flows in and between regions.

ASME depicts seasonal cropping across winter, summer and Nili (August–November)seasons. Planting can be at the normal time, 1 month early or 1 month late. Labor requirements

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

vary by month, crop, and livestock system. Labor supply depends on region, number of workingdays per month, and family size. The modeled livestock types include buffalo (Bubalis bubalus),local cattle (Bos indicus), exotic cattle (Bos taurus), dairy animals, sheep (Ovis aries)/goats(Capra hircus), broilers and egg layers. The livestock commodities include beef, milk, veal,chicken (Gallus domesticus), and eggs as well as marketable animals which include calves forveal and fattening. Draft animals are also included in the livestock commodities and include suchanimals as buffalo, camels (Camelus dromedaries), horses (Equus caballus), mules (Equus Mule)and donkeys (Equus asinus). The production of livestock requires feed. The model includeslivestock nutrient requirement on a seasonal basis. In the production of poultry meat and eggs, thefeed used is largely imported soybean (Glycine max) meal and maize (Zea mays).

Processing is modeled where for example soybeans are crushed, sugar cane (Saccarumofficinarum) processed, cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) ginned, rice (Oriza sativa) and wheat(Triticum aestivum) milled. Both direct products (soy meal and oil, lint cotton, milled riceetc.) and by products (cotton seed, rice bran) are included. For commodities, balanceconstraints limit consumption plus feeding plus processing use plus exports to be less thanor equal to crop production plus processing production plus imports.

The objective function is consumers’ and producers’ surplus (CSPS) following themodeling approach reviewed in McCarl and Spreen (1980). Demand functions forcommodities and for regional municipal and industrial water are included with consumptionprice endogenously determined for agricultural consumer commodities. Parameters for alinear (inverse) demand function for each commodity are calculated based on prior price andquantity plus elasticity estimates; where the slope is the base year price divided by the baseyear consumption divided by the elasticity and the intercept equals the base year price minusthe slope times the base year consumption. The integral of the demand function is thenincluded in the objective function yielding a quadratic term. The costs included are those forinputs used in production, water pumping, and commodity transport. Fixed price importsand exports are allowed up to a maximum quantity specified at five times current levels. Themodel output contains equilibrium commodity production, imports, exports, consumptionfeed use, prices, water use and water prices along with many other items (See McCarl 2011).

The ASME model was originally calibrated by the Ministry of Irrigation and wasrecalibrated after the additions (updates) done for this study. The calibration procedureinvolved manipulating interregional transport costs and production costs to best match

Reu

se

Div

ersi

ons

Drainage

Ret

urn

Flo

w

Releases

Rainfall

Reused Drainage and Treated M&I Evaporation

From the Distribution

Lake Nasser

Evapo-Transpiration

Agriculture

Groundwater

Municipal& Industrial

SeaAnd

Terminal Lakes

Non Recoverable

Consumption

AgriculturalConsumptive Use

Fig. 1 Egypt’s National water balance constraint. Adapted from Alnaggar (2003)

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

2009 land allocation, livestock numbers, prices and market consumption/import levels.Consequent results were all within 5 % of available statistical data.

4 Data

Various sources of data were used to specify the model. Data was provided by the Ministry ofWater Resources and Irrigation in Egypt (See Musumba 2012 for additional details). Thepopulation scenarios were based on government and UN population projections. This includescurrent and low population growth projections for the years 2030 and 2060 (UN 2008; CIA2011). Data on climate change induced changes in crop yield and irrigation water use weretaken from the Egypt Second National Communication (EEAA 2010). Scenarios for sea levelrise were obtained from the Egyptian Coastal Research Institute (Elshinnawy 2008). Scenariosfor changes in Nile River flow data were based on the work by Elshamy et al. (2009). Livestockyield climate change sensitivity were based on data from the US National assessment in theSouthwest region (Reilly et al. 2003). The climate change induced increase in municipal andwater demandwe based on findings in a semi-arid region study in the US (Chen et al. 2001). Allof these are detailed in McCarl (2011) and Musumba (2012).

5 Procedure and model specification

The ASME was run for baseline and alternative scenarios for the years 2010, 2030 and 2060.These scenarios include future population growth levels (fast and slow), and agriculturalyield technological progress plus the degree of climate change as it affects crop yield, cropwater use, irrigation water supply, HAD water releases/outflows, land lost to sea level rise,livestock performance and M&I water use. The base, without climate change scenarios forthe years 2030 and 2060 involve only population growth projections and yield technologicalprogress. The population projections for 2030 and 2060 are in Table 1. This report uses the2010 population of Egypt of 80 million for the base.

Demand for agricultural commodities and municipal water demand are increased aspopulation grows under the assumption that they increases linearly with population. Theclimate change induced alterations in Nile inflows are adapted from Beyene et al. (2010)who computed a multi-model projection of inflow to the HAD based on climate changeprojections from 11 general circulation models (GCMs). Results were used from the A2 andB1 SRES (Scientific Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios. Lake Nassar outflows areadjusted by the same proportion as Beyene et al.’s (2010) projected changes in inflows.Given that the years do not exactly match up, the study uses the percent change in projected

Table 1 Population projection scenarios for Egypt (in millions)

Model year None Fast Slow

2010 80 80 80

2030 80 117 104

2060 80 162 113

United Nations 2008

None indicates that there is no change in the population of Egypt during the preceding years. Slow and fastscenarios describe the population growth rate of Egypt

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

flow for the period 2010–2039 for 2030; and the period 2040–2069 for 2060. The HADoutflow flow assumptions in BCM as shown in Table 2 below.

Higher temperatures increase municipal and industrial water use. Data were not available forEgypt so percentage change data for the San Antonio, Texas area were used based on Chen et al.(2001). An average climate change induced increase in water demand of 2.5 % was used.

The data on the projected effects of climate change on crop yields were obtained from the EgyptSecond National Communication (EEAA 2010) with interpolations to match the years 2030 and2060. Data were not available for climate change sensitivity on all crops therefore the sensitivityfor select proxy crops were used for crops for which data were not available (Musumba 2012).

6 Experiments and results

ASME was run over the alternative climate change scenarios under continued populationgrowth rates and Egyptian government crop yield growth rate assumptions. In terms ofclimate change the scenarios involved the climate change effects on crop yields, watersupply, and land inundation. We run the scenarios for the years 2030 and 2060. The resultsare compared to the baseline, and scenarios with no climate change. Finally, the effect ofadaptation strategies was simulated; and results are explained below. Given multiplescenarios run for this study, our explanation and results presented in the tables focus onthe A2 scenario without protection from the sea level rise for the years 2030 and 2060 (foradditional results see Musumba (2012) and McCarl (2011).

6.1 Climate change 2030

Climate change leads to a reduction in welfare compared to the 2030 baseline (Table 3).Agricultural production decreases by 6 %, and prices increase by 19 % with agriculturalrevenues rising by 15 %. Farmers benefit from these increased prices. Consumers experiencea 1.7 % welfare loss as there is a reduction in production and increase in prices. Imports rise by23 %. The amount of land farmed increases by 3 %, agricultural water use increases by 8 %,M&I water use increases by 6 %, water flow to the sea increases by 5 % and agriculturalemployment increases by 4 %. More desert land is reclaimed for agricultural production.

6.2 Climate change 2060

For 2060, the study finds that climate change leads to a reduction in welfare (Table 4) withagricultural production decreasing by 6 %, and prices increasing by 19 % plus an increase in

Table 2 Climate scenarios for annual releases from the High Aswan Dam

Lake Nasser outflow in BCM Percentage change in base outflow

A2 B1 A2 B1

Base 55.5 55.5 100 100

Multimodel-2030 58.72 60.39 106 109

Multimodel-2060 48.36 49.31 87 89

The Lake Nasser outflows are in units of billion cubic meters (BCM) and the A2 and B2 labels identify theemissions scenario

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

Table 3 ASME results for climate change scenarios in terms of percentage change from the 2030 baseline2030 with rapid population growth

Year 2030* 2030 2030 2030 2030

Climate scenario None A2: B1: A2: B1:

Protection from sea level rise – Un protected Un protected Protected Protected

——————— Percent change –——————

Welfare (billion EGP) 1.400 −1.66 −1.45 −1.59 −1.38Agriculture GDP (billion EGP) 275.8 14.78 15.26 15.51 16.25

Imports (billion EGP) 0.033 22.95 22.46 18.01 13.80

Exports (billion EGP) 0.028 −16.32 −4.50 −15.20 −4.50Producer production index 100 −6 −5 −5 −4Consumer price index 100 19 19 19 19

Agricultural water use (BCM) 34.4 7.88 10.24 7.15 10.24

Municipal and industrial surface water use (BCM) 6.5 5.73 7.17 4.42 6.01

Municipal and industrial groundwater use (BCM) 0.6 −24.43 −39.67 −10.66 −27.38Flow to sea (BCM) 19.4 3.15 3.86 3.67 4.22

Agricultural labor hours (billion) 2.52 4.47 3.99 4.41 5.74

Ag. land use (million feddans) 19.2 3.24 3.17 3.93 4.48

Marginal value of water(EGP/feddan) 1542 8.69 5.90 11.02 5.97

Water reuse (BCM) 7.0 −5.67 −5.67 −5.67 −5.67

*In the second column, the values are the baseline 2030 values without climate change in the following units

ASME is the Agricultural Sector Model of Egypt

EGP Egyptian Pounds; BCM Billion Cubic Meters

Table 4 ASME results from under 2060 climate change scenarios in terms of percentage change from the2060 baseline

Climate scenario None A2: B1: A2: B1:

Protection from sea level rise – Un protected Un protected Protected Protected

——————— Percent change –——————

Welfare (billion EGP) 1.8 −6.28 −5.90 −6.17 −5.79Agriculture GDP (billion EGP) 399.5 15.18 16.13 15.06 16.51

Imports (billion EGP) 0.125 18.93 18.80 18.36 18.21

Exports (billion EGP) 0.011 −1.73 −1.73 −1.73 −1.73Producer production index 100 −24 −23 −24 −23Consumer price index 100 69 65 69 66

Agricultural water use (BCM) 31.9 −17.49 −15.04 −17.31 −14.81Municipal/industrial surface water use (BCM) 9.03 −0.94 0.02 −1.61 −0.58Municipal/industrial groundwater use (BCM) 0.92 11.86 2.39 18.39 8.27

Flow to sea (BCM) 23.33 −4.89 −3.99 −4.67 −3.89Ag. land use (million feddans) 2.34 −18.45 −18.02 −18.35 −17.94Agricultural labor hours (billion) 17.6 −12.60 −11.65 −12.10 −11.04Marginal value of water(EGP/feddan) 3646 68.46 63.91 68.29 65.88

Water reuse (BCM) 8.9 9.61 9.61 9.61 9.61

ASME is the Agricultural Sector Model of Egypt

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imports of 19 %. The model has a constraint on the import and export amount to be less thanfive times that of 2007. At the same time the amount of land dedicated to agriculturedecreases by 19 %, with agricultural water use is reduced by 17 %, M&I water use by1 %, water flow to the sea falls by 5 %, and agricultural employment by 13 %. There is anincrease in groundwater use of 12 %. Also the agricultural value of production increases by15 % while welfare reduces by 6 % because consumers are spending more on food.

6.3 Implications of sea level rise

For both the 2030 and 2060 climate change scenarios, alternative sea level rise scenarios andwater supply changes were run to assess their implications. The sea level rise scenariosassume either no protection or protection (a form of adaptation) against sea level rise.Protection implies that land losses to sea level rise are close to zero. The results indicatethat protection from sea level rise compared to the case where there is no protection leads toan increase in welfare for the agricultural sector.

6.4 Implications of reduced Nile water inflows

Climate change and increased water demands upstream in the Nile basin have the potentialto reduce the amount of water available to Egypt. In the study, we simulate four scenariosproposed in the literature: 1) an allocation of 51.7 BCM as posed by Whittington et al.(1995); 2) a 50.3 BCM water allocation that Nigatu and Dinar (2011) pose as optimal for asocial planner; and Beyene et al. (2010) projected availabilities of 3) 58.72 BCM and 4)48.32 BCM. The results are reported in Table 5.

Under the 51.5 allocation, the results indicate 0.5 % and 0.4 % reductions in welfare for2030 and 2060 relative to the 55.5 with climate change scenario (Table 5). A decrease inwater supply to 50.3 reduces welfare by 0.7 % and 1.2 % for 2030 and 2060. These resultsindicate that climate change induced reductions in water supply would have a large impacton the agricultural sector.

6.5 Adaptation strategies for climate change

In this section, the study focuses on the ability of Egypt to adapt to climate change throughchanging crop mix, by improving on water supply efficiency, increasing agricultural

Table 5 ASME results for water availability scenarios relative to the 2060 with climate change scenariosensitivity of Egypt to water availability under alternative Nile inflows

Year 2030 2060

Population projection Fast Fast

Annual water allocation Welfare (billion EGP)a

58.72b (6 %)c −0.3 –

48.31b (−13 %) – −1.851.7 (−7 %) −0.5 −0.450.3 (−9 %) −0.7 −1.2

a Egyptian Pounds (EGP)bMultimodel projection of water availability due to climate changec Items in parentheses indicate percentage change from the baseline allocation of 55.5 BCM

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

technical progress, and protecting from sea level rise plus reducing population relateddemand growth.

6.5.1 Crop mix

A commonly discussed adaptation involves altering crop mix. The ASME modeladjusts the mix given a climate scenario. The main results indicate that sugarcaneproduction is eliminated (zero). There is a 46 % reduction in rice, 20 % reduction inELS cotton, a 30 % reduction in wheat, a 3 % reduction in maize, and a 4 %reduction in onions (Allium cepa) coupled with a 2 % increase in Berseem (Trifoliumalexandrinum) while maintaining the production area (land use) of the other crops.This result is due to the crop yield projected changes coupled with the increasingwater demands from cropping and non-agriculture. It is also reflective of the highwater use of the sugarcane and rice crops.

6.5.2 Improved municipal and industrial distribution efficiency

One possible adaptation involves decreasing net losses in M&I distribution systems. Currentdistribution efficiency results in 50 % of the water distributed to municipal and industrialsector being lost through network leakage or other forms of inefficiency. The study examinesthe implications of reducing this loss to 25 % in the 2060 scenario under climate change.This improvement in distribution efficiency increases welfare by 1.4 % and consumer pricesdecrease (see Table 6).

6.5.3 Improved field irrigation eff iciency

Another possible adaptation involves decreasing net losses in agricultural distributionsystems. Currently the irrigation efficiency is assumed to be 80 % across most of thecountry with the upper and middle Egypt regions at 75 % and the Delta at 77 %. Toexamine possible adaptation, the study uses a scenario where irrigation efficiencyincreases to 90 % for all regions. Results indicate an increase in welfare of 0.6 %with an agricultural commodity price decrease due to the increase in net availablewater supply for agricultural production (see Table 6).

Table 6 ASME results for water distribution efficiency improvement adaptation scenarios relative to the2060 with climate change scenario

Year 2060 2060 2060 2060

Population projection Fast Fast Fast Fast

Nile flow (BCM) A2 B1 A2 B1

Protection from sea level rise Protected Protected Unprotected Unprotected

Conservation strategya Change in welfare from the 2060 scenario with climate changeb

Conveyance efficiency (95 %) 0.79 0.80 0.75 0.76

Irrigation efficiency (90 %) 0.63 0.66 0.59 0.62

Public water distribution (75 %) 1.41 1.32 1.37 1.29

ASME Agricultural Sector Model of Egypta Items in parentheses indicates the level of improvement that was used the base case in all regionsb Indicates the increase in welfare from 2060 scenarios without this improvement

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

6.5.4 Crop yield technological progress

Another possible adaptation involves increasing technical progress in the form of faster cropyield growth. The base model incorporated a lower yield progress scenario (1 % for all cropsbut berseem) based on opinions and studies within the Egyptian Ministry of Agriculture.Adaptation in the form of a more rapid rate of technical yield advance was evaluated. Thisinvolved the major crops such as barley (Hordeum vulgare), cotton, maize, rice, sorghum(Sorghum bicolor), and wheat. The increase of 2.1 % was used based on estimates in the USNational Agricultural Research, Extension, Education, and Economics Advisory Boardreport on Agricultural Productivity and Agricultural Research (USNAREEEAB 2011).

The results indicate that under the faster growth assumption Egyptian welfare increasesby 3.5 %. This occurs because of an increase in agricultural production and a decrease inprices compared to the slower scenario. In terms of distribution, the study finds thatconsumers are better off in this scenario and producers are worse off.

6.5.5 Slower population growth

Population growth rate reduction is also analyzed in isolation to assess its implication on theagricultural sector. The results indicate that under 2060 climate change that slowerpopulation growth rate reduces welfare by 1.82 % (because there are less people to collectwelfare thus less of a shift in the demand curve and a smaller integral) and the agriculturalcommodity price increase is much smaller compared to a fast population growth (a priceindex relative to the base of 173 as opposed to 260 under fast population growth). Thisoccurs because slow population growth leads to a reduction in water and agriculturaldemands and thus lower stress placed on the land and water base.

7 Conclusion

The results show that climate change would have large impacts on Egypt agriculture and wateruse with the damages increasing over time. The study finds that food prices increase (up to260 %) while consumers lose and producers gain. Several adaptation strategies may reduce thevulnerability and these include: altered crop mix that reduces the high per area water users likesugarcane and rice; improving irrigation application and conveyance systems efficiency;enhanced research and development to achieve greater technical progress; slower populationgrowth; and effective coastal protection. The study finds that adaptation has the opposite effectson welfare, reducing producers’ gains and improving the welfare of consumers.

Acknowledgments We acknowledge the contributions of the Nile Forecast System and Dr. Mohamed EzzatElshamy, the former manager of the system, during the time of this study.

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