climate change risk industry - oecd.org · „the ski tourism industry is threatened by climate...
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Change Risk Appraisal in the Austrian Ski
Industry(Accepted in Tourism Review International – September 2006)
Christoph WolfseggerStefan Gössling
Daniel Scott
LUCSUS – Lund University Center for Sustainability Studies
„The ski tourism industry is threatened by climate change“
IPCC
BBC
Science Magazine
International Herald Tribune
EEA
Etc.
But does it really matter what researchers and media think?
…..even more important: What does the affected industry think?
Ski tourism in Austria> 300 ski resorts - 6000 km of ski runs
49 mio skier days (2004/05)
99 € per day – 4.7 billion € turnover
Many associated business
Multiplier effect important for rural economy
Climate change research in ski resorts
Studies in Japan, Austria, Switzerland, Australia, Canada, USA
-all project negative consequences of varying degrees for the tourism industry
Summery of research results• Declined season length (not a linear trend)
• Alpine Region warmed considerably more compared to the northern hemisphere average
• Low altitudes will be much more affected than higher altitudes
• Uncertainties about time horizon and magnitude of impacts
• Only very few studies incorporate the adaptive capacity (eg. snowmaking) in studies.
What can be done?
ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE?
…..but this depends on the adaptive capacity of the exposed system!
Adaptive capacity depends on…
• Economical or technical resources
• How well one perceives the problem
Survey design
• Criteria for target population
>10 km of ski runs>50 % of the altitude range under 1500m
71 ski resorts qualified36 valid responses
Survey design
• internet based
• decision makers of ski resort operators
• not biased towards one certain type of ski resorts
Priority of climate change
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
high priority moderately highpriority
medium priority moderately lowpriotity
low priority
resp
onde
nts
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
large economiccosts
moderately higheconomic costs
mediumeconomic costs
hardly economiccosts
no economiccosts
resp
onde
nts
Perceived economic costs
Observed versus expected climate change
Observed changes
inconsistent
9 out of 31 did not see any sign of climate change
Expected changes
high
Inconsistency of observed impacts
Reinforcing loop
„Avoidance of cognitive dissonance bias“
approval as athreat
perveivedimpacts
+
skeptical believes
affirmative beliefs
-
+
+
R
Perceived adaptive capacity
02468
1012141618
0-15 15-30 30-45 years
45-60 60-75 75- more
resp
onde
nts
without adaptation
with adaptation
Adaptation
• What strategies do decision makers consider appropriate? (23 strategies)
• Technological adaptations• Soft Business adaptations• Government and industry adaptations
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
cloud seeding - x=4.48
artificial ski slopes (carpets) - x=3.79
shadowing of slopes by trees - x=3.39
improving seasonal weather forecasts to improvethe planning of the season - x=3.09
snowmaking with chemical additives - x=2.79
avoiding southern exposure of the slopes - x=2.24
moving to higher altitudes - x=1.91
snowmaking - x=1.26
very appropriate
moderately appropriate
medium appropriate
moderately inappropriate
inappropriate
Technological adaptations
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
closing the ski resort - x=4.41
opening slopes with less snow cover thanusual - x=3.73
insurance against financial losses causedby little snow - x=3.65
increasing capacity of lifts - x=3.55
giving up slopes which need too muchsnow cover - x=3.38
shortening of season - x=3.21
enhanced marketing to intensify shorterseason - x=2.45
diversification of all season offerings -x=2.21
diversification of winter offerings - x=2.12
joining ski conglomerates - x=2.15
sharing costs of snowmaking withaccommodation industry - x=1.65
very appropriate
moderately appropriate
medium appropriate
moderately inappropriate
inappropriate
Soft business strategies
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
governmental support in case ofeconomical losses - x=2.82
lobbying of the ski industry to redruce CO2emissions - x=2.63
softening of environmental regulations -x=2.21
governmental subsidies for snowmaking -x=1.94
very appropriate
moderately appropriate
medium appropriate
moderately inappropriate
inappropriate
Government and industry responses
Dominance of snowmaking as an adaptation strategy
Different strategies based on:
• Physical characteristics• Business Model• Management Practices
Snowmaking
Discussed environmental impacts of snowmaking
• Energy and water consumption• Stays longer on the slope• Potential disturbance of nutrient balance• Noise has impacts on humans and wildlife• Ethic• Chemical additives
Usage of snowmaking
0102030405060708090
100
1different ski resorts
% o
f ski
runs
pro
vide
d w
ith s
now
mak
ing
Snowmaking
• 84 % would increase snowmaking
• Snowmaking costs are the majorlimitations for adaptation
• 28 out of 29 deny environmentalimpacts
Why snowmaking?
Cost benefit analysis – Immediate benefits
When dealing with future impacts and anticipated adaptation uncertainties are always present!
Environmental impacts (costs) are not perceived (28 out of 29)
Positiv: No underestimation of the severity of future impacts!
Negativ: Perceived adaptive capacity maybe too high?
Perceived adaptive capacity to high?
• Snowmaking has limitations – physically and financially
• Adaptation costs will reduce demand for low altitude ski resorts – winners and losers
• Pressure on the environment from both winners and losers
To what extend can snowmaking reduce the vulnerability of the ski industry in the next decades?
Should the government subsidize snowmaking costs?
Should there be income stabilization programs?
Should Austria not support low lying ski resorts but allow high altitude ski resorts to expand?
Arising questions
What if adaptation is not supported in Austria but in other countries it will be?
What are the environmental costs of additional snowmaking or the introduction of chemical additives?