Climate Change in Pacific West Region Parks

Changes observed and changes expected

Prepared by Jeanne Panek, 2005 Photo, J. Panek

• Global scale

• Local scale

• Future climate scenarios

• How can facilities managers respond?

Presentation outline

Photo, J. Panek

• Global CO2 has risen 30% in the last century and the increase is accelerating

• Global temperatures have risen >1°F in the last century

• Natural processes alone do not explain the changes observed

Global trends

Photo, C. Huizenga

Etheridge et al. (1998), Keeling and Whorf (2005)

The historical CO2 record

Natural Climate Influence on Global Temperature Change

1.0

0.5

0

- 0.5

1850 1900 1950 2000

IPCC (2001)

∆˚F

0.9

1.8

-0.9

1.0

0.5

0

- 0.5

1850 1900 1950 2000

Human and Natural Climate Influences on Global Temperature Change

IPCC (2001)

∆˚F

0.9

1.8

-0.9

West Coast states (WA, OR, CA) 7th largest carbon emitters in the world

These changes have ALREADY occurred

Climate changes observed in the western region

Cayan et al. (2001)

Temperature Western North America has already warmed by 2-4°F in last 50 years

Spring temperatures (Mar-May) 1950-1998

Mote et al. (2005)

The western U.S. has generally experienced diminishing spring snowpack in last 50 years

Diminished Snowpack Trends in April 1 Snow Water-Equivalent 1950-1997

Stewart et al. (2004), Mote et al. (2005)

Shifts in streamflow from late spring/summer to winter/early spring.

Summer streamflows decline

Dana Glacier, CA

Basagic and Fountain (2005)

Glaciers are melting in the Pacific West

Repeat imagery of photographs taken ~100 years ago show the extent of glacial retreat

Extreme precipitation events have increased in the western U.S. 10% since 1930

Kunkel et al (1999)

Disaster images

Steve Thompson, NPS

Summary of physical changes already observed in western region:

• Warmer temperatures

• Earlier snowmelt, diminished snowpack

• Earlier streamflow

• Glacial retreat

• Increase in extreme storm events

Ecological consequences Many direct and indirect pathways for climate effects

Climate Hydrology

Habitat Life-cycle

Fire

Pests/pathogens

Vegetation

Life-cycle timing

Root et al. (2003)

Earlier timing of life-cycle traits in organisms worldwide attributed to climatic change

143 species studied

Range shifts worldwide Generally towards poles and upward in elevation

• Bird species ranges in UK moved northward, linked with temperature

• Red fox range in Canada expanded northward

• Lowland birds are breeding in mountains in Costa Rica

• Alpine flora have expanded towards summits in Switzerland

• BOTH poleward and upward movement of treeline documented globally

Crozier (2003)

Range shifts in western region

Historical range

Range expansion

1967

1985 1993

1999

January T = OºC = -4ºC

• Northward range shift of 420 miles in 35 years

• Related to temperature

Michelle Baker, ©1995 Smithsonian Inst,

Sachem skipper butterfly

Two-thirds of the 58 butterfly species studied have shifted their ranges northward

Mountain pine beetle epidemic in British Columbia is related to temperature increase

2004 Data 2013 Projections

http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfp/mountain_pine_beetle/

Gray is dead

Pests and climate change

Fire and climate change

NPS, photo

• Increase in annual area burned on public lands

• Fire frequency linked to drier summer conditions, so is expected to increase with climate change in the western region

• Fire frequency is a result of past land management and present climatic conditions

Ecological changes already observed:

• Shifts in life-cycle timing

• Range shifts poleward and up in elevation

• Increased mortality due to pests/pathogens

• Increased area burned by fire

Scenarios of a changing climate…

Photo J. Panek

…predictions for the next 100 years

~550 ppm

~1000 ppm

Union of Concerned Scientists (2004)

Global Emissions Scenarios Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Rising Temperatures

Union of Concerned Scientists (2004)

California statewide projected average summer temperature changes

Diminishing Snowpack

Union of Concerned Scientists (2004)

Lower Emissions Higher Emissions Lower emissions Higher emissions

27% remaining

April 2100 snowpack in Sierra Nevada relative to 1961-1990

Baseline 1961-1990 Simulation 2070-2100

Projected vegetation changes in the Sierra Network Parks

Yosemite

Sequoia/KC

Yosemite

Sequoia/KC

Devil’s Postpile

Devil’s Postpile

Lenihan et al. (2003)

Predicted loss of cold-water fish habitat by 2100

http://www2.nature.nps.gov/air/features/climatechangeparks.cfm

EPA (1995)

Expected songbird species loss in Sierra Nevada

Willow Flycatcher Hammond’s Flycatcher Dusky Flycatcher Gray Flycatcher Bank Swallow Mountain Chickadee Sage Thrasher MacGillivray’s Warbler Vesper Sparrow Savannah Sparrow Lincoln’s Sparrow Pine Grosbeak Red Crossbill Pine Siskin Evening Grosbeak

www.abcbirds.org/climatechange

How should facilities managers in Western Region parks respond to

climate change?

Photo, J. Panek

Facilities managers are among the people with the most power to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

• Influence energy use Vehicle leasing/purchase, operation and

maintenance Visitor transportation options Off-grid energy generation options Building operation and maintenance

• “100+ Best Management Practices” (InsideNPS)

Use of biodiesel or biodiesel blends

Photo, NPS

Photo, NPS

Electric vehicles

Incorporating hybrid technology

Emission control successes: transportation

Channel Islands

Yosemite

Point Reyes

Emission control successes: energy generation

Yosemite – White Wolf/Crane Flat Mt. Rainier – Sunrise Lassen – Drakesbad Alcatraz

Off-grid sites

Solar Diesel

Joshua Tree – Cottonwood

Steve Butterworth, NPS

Pinnacles – West Side Joshua Tree – Cottonwood Mt. Rainier – White River Mojave: Hole-in-the-wall: Fire Cache Hole-in-the-wall: Visitor Center Rockin L Ranch Kessler Springs Ranch OX Ranch Valley View Ranch

Emission control successes: stationary sources Off-grid sites

Solar Diesel

Joshua Tree – Cottonwood

Steve Butterworth, NPS

Pinnacles – West Side Joshua Tree – Cottonwood Mt. Rainier – White River Mojave: Hole-in-the-wall: Fire Cache Hole-in-the-wall: Visitor Center Rockin L Ranch Kessler Springs Ranch OX Ranch Valley View Ranch

Yosemite – White Wolf/Crane Flat Mt. Rainier – Sunrise Lassen – Drakesbad Alcatraz

• In the face of record oil and natural gas prices, consumers and businesses will save billions of dollars in energy costs

“Addressing global warming carries substantial economic benefits.”

http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/westcoast/

West Coast Governors’ Global Warming Initiative

• Energy efficiency and renewable energy programs can provide a hedge against the economic impact of anticipated price spikes for natural gas and oil

• Climate change prevention strategies will have numerous public health and environmental co-benefits

Planning for a changed environment

• Protecting facilities from increased fire danger • Preparing for water shortages • Preparing infrastructure for heat • Preparing for extreme climate events,

flooding, etc. • Smaller infrastructure footprint to

minimize ecological stress • Planning for sea level rise • Many, many more…

• Climate change is already occurring and will worsen

• Facilities managers are key players in reversing changes

• Economic investment • Vulnerability and risk

management • Leading by example

(Welch 2005)

No justification for a wait-and-see policy

Photo, J. Panek

Consensus: immediate action is vital