activities of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc)
TRANSCRIPT
Activities of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)
Mannava Sivakumar
Acting Secretary of the IPCC
17 March 2016
Presentation
• Role and Structure of IPCC
• IPCC Working Groups, Task Force and Technical Support Units
• IPCC Activities, Products and Achievements
• Themes referring to Soils in AR5 Working Group Reports
• IPCC Expert Meeting on Climate Change, Food, and Agriculture
• Outcomes of IPCC Assessment Reports
• Contribution of Experts from Different Countries to IPCC Reports
• Paris Agreement and IPCC
Establishment of IPCC
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) is the leading international
body for the assessment of climate
change. It was established by the United
Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
and the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) in 1988 to provide
the world with a clear scientific view on
the current state of knowledge in climate
change and its potential environmental
and socio-economic impacts.
• In the same year, the UN General
Assembly endorsed the action by WMO
and UNEP in jointly establishing the IPCC.
• As an intergovernmental body,
membership of the IPCC is open to all
member countries of the United Nations(UN) and WMO.
The Role of the IPCC (1)
“… to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the
scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the
scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and
options for adaptation and mitigation.”
Principles Governing IPCC Work, paragraph 2
Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles.pdf
The Role of the IPCC (2)
“IPCC reports should be neutral with respect to policy, although they may need to
deal objectively with scientific, technical and socio-economic factors relevant to the
application of particular policies.”
Principles Governing IPCC Work, paragraph 2
Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles.pdf
The Role of the IPCC (3)
IPCC does not undertake new research, nor does it monitor climate-related data,
instead, it conducts assessments of knowledge on the basis of published and peer-
reviewed scientific and technical literature.
Principles Governing IPCC Work, paragraph 2
Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles.pdf
Structure of IPCC
• UN parent organizations
• Intergovernmental
Panel
(195 member States)
• International scientists
and experts
IPCC Bureau
The purpose of the IPCC Bureau is to provide guidance to the Panel on the scientific and
technical aspects of its work, to advise on related management and strategic issues, and to
take decisions on specific issues within its mandate, in accordance with the Principles
governing IPCC Work.
Composition of the IPCC Bureau
The IPCC Bureau consists of:
• IPCC Chair
• IPCC Vice Chairs
• Co-Chairs of the three Working Groups
• Co-Chairs of the Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
• Members of the Working Group Bureaus.
The Bureau is chaired by the IPCC Chair.
Its work is supported by the IPCC Secretariat.
IPCC Executive Committee
The purpose of the IPCC Executive Committee is to strengthen and facilitate timely and
effective implementation of the IPCC Programme of Work in accordance with the IPCC
Principles and Procedures, and the decisions of the Panel and advice of the Bureau.
Composition of IPCC Executive Committee
The Composition of the Executive Committee is as follows:
• IPCC Chair (who will chair the Executive Committee)
• IPCC Co-Chairs of Working Groups I, II and III and of the Task Force on Inventories
• IPCC Vice Chairs
Advisory Members:
• Head of Secretariat
• The four Heads of the Technical Support Units
IPCC Working Groups and Task Force
Working Group I
addresses the
physical science
basis of climate
change
Working Group II
addresses
climate change
impacts,
adaptation and
vulnerability
Working Group III
addresses options
for limiting
greenhouse gas
emissions and
mitigating climate
change
Cross Working Group
Collaboration (e.g.
SREX)
The Task Force on
National Greenhouse
Gas Inventories (TFI)
oversees the IPCC
National GHG
Inventories Programme
IPCC Technical Support Units
IPCC Technical Support Units (TSUs) provide scientific, technical and organisational
support to their respective IPCC Working Groups (WGs) and the Task Force on
National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (TFI). A TSU may be formed to support the
preparation of a Synthesis Report or any other Task Force constituted by the Panel.
Activities, Products, Achievements
IPCC Reports
Five assessment reports (1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2013-14)
Activities, Products, Achievements
IPCC Reports
Five assessment reports (1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2013-14)
1992 supplementary report and 1994 special report
Activities, Products, Achievements
IPCC Reports
Five assessment reports (1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2013-14)
1992 supplementary report and 1994 special report
Nine special reports (1997, 1999, 2000, 2005, 2011, 2012)
Activities, Products, Achievements
IPCC Reports
Five assessment reports (1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2013-14)
1992 supplementary report and 1994 special report
Nine special reports (1997, 1999, 2000, 2005, 2011, 2012)
Guidelines for national GHG inventories, good practice
guidance (1995, 2006, 2013)
Activities, Products, Achievements
IPCC Reports
Five assessment reports (1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2013-14)
1992 supplementary report and 1994 special report
Nine special reports (1997, 1999, 2000, 2005, 2011, 2012)
Guidelines for national GHG inventories, good practice
guidance (1995, 2006, 2013)
Six technical papers (1996-2008)
Significant Progress made in Understanding Climate
Change since 1990 – WG I Reports
The reports are getting more comprehensive
414pp
588pp
882pp
1007pp
1552pp
Themes referring to Soils in AR 5 WG I ReportChapter 6: Carbon and other geochemical cycles
6.3.1 Carbon dioxide emissions and their fate since 1750: Land Use Change Activities
Chapter 7: Clouds and Aerosols: 7.2.31 Aerosol Sources
Chapter 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing:
8.2.3.3 Methane
8.2.3.4 Nitrous Oxide: Anthropogenic emissions represent around 30-45% of the present day global
total, and are mostly from agricultural and soil sources. Natural emissions come mostly from
microbial activity in the soil.
8.3.5 Land Surface Changes: Land cover changes; Surface Albedo and Radiative Forcing; Other
impacts of Land Cover Change on the Earth’s Albedo; Impacts of Surface Change on Climate
8.6.2 .1 Regional Forcing Changes During the Industrial Era: Reference to Soil Dust
8.6.2.2 Relationship between Regional Forcing Patterns and Climate Response during the
Industrial Era: Albedo changes due to land use and land cover changes
Themes referring to Soils in AR 5 WG II Report
Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects
Chapter 4: Terrestrial and Inland Water Systems
4.2.4 Multiple Stressors Interacting with Climate Change
4.2.4.1 Land Use and Cover Change
4.3.2 Observed and Projected Change in the Ecosystems
4.3.3 Impacts on and Risks for Major Systems
4.3.3.1 Forests and Woodlands
4.3.3.2 Dryland Ecosystems
4.3.3.3 Rivers, Lakes, Wetlands and Peatlands
4.3.3.4 Tundra, Alpine, and Permafrost Systems
4.4 Adaptation and Its Limits
4.4.2.1 Reduction of Non-Climate Stresses and Restoration of Degraded Ecosystems
4.4.2.2 The Size, Location, and Layout of Protected Areas
4.4.2.3 Landscape and Watershed Management
Themes referring to Soils in AR 5 WG II Report
Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects (2)
Chapter 5: Coastal Systems and Low Lying Areas
5.4 Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Risks
5.4.2 Natural Systems
5.4.2.1 Beaches, Barriers and Sand Dunes
5.4.2.2 Rocky Coasts
5.4.2.3 Wetlands and Seagrass Beds
5.4.2.7 Deltas
5.4.3 Human Systems
5.4.3.1 Human Settlements
5.4.3.3 Fisheries, Aquaculture and Agriculture
Chapter 7: Food Security and Food Production Systems
7.3 Assessing Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Risks
7.3.4 Sensitivity of Land Use to Weather and Climate
7.5 Adaptation and Managing Risks in Agriculture and Other Food System Activities
Chapter 9: Rural Areas
9.3 Assessing Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Risks
9.3.1 Current and Future Economic, Social and Landuse Trends in Rural Areas
Chapter 19: Emergent Risks and Key Vulnerabilities
19.3.2 Examples of Emergent Risks : Risks involving Non-Climate Stressors: Management of Land
Themes referring to Soils in AR 5 WG II Report
Part B: Regional Aspects
Chapter 21: Regional Context
Chapter 22: Africa
Chapter 23: Europe
Chapter 24: Asia
Chapter 25: Australia
Chapter 26: North America
Chapter 27: Central and South America
Chapter 28: Polar Regions
Chapter 29: Small Islands
Themes referring to Soils in AR 5 WG III Report
Mitigation of Climate Change
Chapter 11: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU)
11.2 New Developments in Emission Trends and Drivers
11.2.2 Trends of GHG fluxes from Forestry and Other Land Use
11.4 Infrastructure and Systemic Perspectives
11.4.1 Land: a complex, integrated system
11.4.2 Mitigation in AFOLU – feedbacks with land-use competition
11.4.3 Demand-side options for reducing GHG emissions from AFOLU
11.4.4 Feedbacks of changes in land demand
11.5 Climate Change Feedback and Interaction with Adaptation (includes vulnerability)
11.5.1 Feebacks between AFOLU and climate change
11.5.2 Implications of climate change on terrestrial carbon pools and mitigation potential of forests
11.5.3 Implications of climate change on peatlands, grasslands and croplands
11.5.4 Potential adaptation options to minimize the impact of climate change on carbon stocks in forests and
agricultural soils
11.6 Costs and potentials
11.6.2 Global estimates of costs and potentials in the AFOLU sector
11.6.3 Regional disaggregation of global costs and potentials in the AFOLU sector
11.9.2 Implications of transformation pathways for the AFOLU sector
Outcomes relevant to Soils from the
IPCC Expert Meeting on Climate Change, Food, and Agriculture
The topics below emerged in discussions of outlines for possible future IPCC products or efforts in the
scientific community:
- Direct and indirect links between climate change, climate change responses, and food security
- Managing fundamental limits: land and water resources
- Competition for land and water: food vs. other uses
- Policies
Important gaps in knowledge discussed during the meeting include the following:
- Quantification of mitigation potential in the AFOLU and energy sectors, including role of greenhouse gas
metric
- Implications of biomass-based mitigation options for potential land and water competition, surface
albedo, and non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions
- Integrated regional assessments, linking bottom-up and top-down approaches
- Integration of food and land-use trade-offs and co-benefits in integrated assessment modeling
- Characterizing adaptation and mitigation interactions, co-benefits, and trade-offs across scales
- Direct and indirect consequences of policies affecting land use, supply-demand interactions, and
international trade.
Other IPCC Publications
Special Reports (SRs) and Methodology Reports: Are prepared to provide an authoritative scientific/technical
assessment or guidance on any topic, which is not adequately covered in assessment reports
Technical Papers and Supporting Material: TPs are produced from IPCC reports to provide tailored
scientific/technical perspective on a particular topic; SM consists of published reports and proceedings from
workshops and expert meetings within the scope of IPCC work programme
Outcomes of the First Four Assessment Reports
• FAR (1990) – led to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC).
• SAR (1995) – input for Kyoto Protocol which set targets for 37 industrialized
countries to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions based on the principles of
the UNFCCC.
• TAR (2001) – focused attention on impacts of climate change and need for
adaptation
• AR4 (2007) – input for decision on 2ºC limit; basis for post Kyoto Protocol
agreement
Nobel Peace Prize to IPCC in 2007
AR5 Synthesis Report
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr.
were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize
"for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made
climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to
counteract such change".
Climate Change Publications assessed in IPCC Work
Source: Fig. 1 – AR5 WGII Technical Summary
• The overall
number of
climate change
publications
assessed in
IPCC work has
significantly
increased,
which allows
for more
comprehensive
assessments
Contributions to IPCC AR5 WGI (Physical science basis of climate change)
Authors, Review Editors and Expert Reviewers
• A total of about 798 contributors
• The highest contribution is from Europe and
North America
Region I (1%)
Region II (12%)
Region III (2%)
Region IV (35%)
Region V (6%)
Region VI (44%)
Contributions to IPCC AR5 WGII (climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability)
AR5: Authors, Review Editors and Expert Reviewers
• About 825 contributors
• The highest contribution is from Europe and
North America
Region I (4%)
Region II (11%)
Region III (3%)
Region IV (37%)
Region V (9%)
Region VI (37%)
Contributions to IPCC AR5 WGIII (Mitigation of Climate Change)
Authors, Review Editors and Expert Reviewers
• About 733 contributors
• The highest contribution is from Europe and
North America
Region I (4%)
Region II (18%)
Region III (4%)
Region IV (33%)
Region V (4%)
Region VI (38%)
Summary Statistics of Contributions by Experts to AR5
• Total number of Coordinating Lead Authors, Authors and Reviewers: + 830
• Total number of countries represented on writing teams: upto 85
• Experts from developing countries and economies-in-transition: 301 (36%)
• Female writing team members: 179 (21%)
• Writing team members new to IPCC Process: 529 (63%)
• Regional distribution (AR5 authors by WMO Region): 8% from Africa; 16% from Asia;
6% from South America; 28% from North America, Central America and Caribbean; 7%
from Southwest Pacific; and 34% from Europe.
Decision of the 41st Session of the IPCC
February 2015, Nairobi, Kenya
The Panel agreed that a number of additional measures would be suitable to attract qualified
experts from developing countries and enhance and facilitate their engagement with the
IPCC, including the following:
• Further encourage Co-Chairs and other Bureau members to engage experts from
developing countries in TSUs, author teams and as reviewers. Increasing training for
TSUs and author teams will help ensure effective participation by all authors
• Increase the number of IPCC activities in developing countries
• Arrange briefings and training sessions for government representatives e.g. before
sessions of the IPCC.
• In the context of communication and outreach activities, to provide experts with
information about the IPCC process and how they can participate in IPCC work.
Examples of promoting Science, Policy and Societal Interactions for
Implementing National Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change
• UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP, 2005), which has operated at the boundary of
science, policy and society since 1997. The success of UKCIP can partly be ascribed to
the capacity to redefine itself in response to changing circumstances.
• The Danish Information Centre on adaptation, established under the Danish NAS and co-
ordinated by the ministry of Climate and Energy, has the objective to provide access to
scientific information on adaptation, policy strategies, news items and frequently asked
questions and is an entry point for citizens, businesses and municipalities.
• In Finland, the ‘Climate Change Community Response Portal’ (CCCRP) guides potential
users of climate information to the most relevant scientific information and, similar to the
UKCIP website, includes tools and wizards to assist local and regional governments and
individuals.
Paris Agreement and IPCC
• At the Paris climate conference
(COP21) in December 2015, 195
countries adopted the historic, legally
binding global climate deal.
• Some decisions of COP-21 and CMP-
11 and conclusions of SBSTA-43
mention the IPCC explicitly
• Several other decisions of COP-21
may have implicit relevance to the
work of the IPCC
Paris Agreement
• The agreement aims at putting the world on track to avoid dangerous climate change by
limiting global warming to well below 2°C.
• The agreement is due to enter into force in 2020.
Governments agreed:
• Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-
industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above
pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and
impacts of climate change;
• On the need for global emissions to peak as soon as possible, recognising that this will
take longer for developing countries;
• To undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with the best available science.
IPCC Scholarship Programme for Ph.D Students from Developing
Countries and Countries with Economies in Transition
• To provide scholarships for PhD students from developing countries and
countries with Economies in Transition to undertake research that advances
the understanding of climate change preferably in their own country
• 35 students have been offered scholarships since 2011 (1st round of awards)
• Should go back to their native countries after finishing to work in their
countries
2007: IPCC was awarded
the Nobel Peace Prize IPCC established with the funds received